AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[KingSweden]

I liked the “dumpster fire” headline

[KingSweden]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

[KingSweden]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

I regret that I must be the bearer of such dire news

[KingSweden]

The chance Democrats win here is minuscule, but I’m excited to see what the swing is

[KingSweden]

Landline polls may be more representative in a district this elderly.

Still, doubt it’s that close in the end

[KingSweden]

I think it's important to note that the RNC isn't just burning money here - they're building up a ground game and email lists in a state that's going to have a competitive Senate seat (possibly two) and gubernatorial race in November.

Oh, good point.

[KingSweden]

I'm thinking lean R at this point. Lesko will probably win by about 5 or so.

A reasonable prediction, and big picture a result I’d be very pleased with

[KingSweden]

Not to rain on people's parade but it's an internal poll from the dem candidate. Take it with a grain of salt

I'm still not buying this.  PA-18 was a more D-favorable environment, and Lamb just barely eked out a win there after a great campaign.  I can see it getting into single digits, but it's difficult to see a D victory in this district.

[KingSweden]

I think the other evidence suggests this is probably around where the race winds up

[KingSweden]

No Limo. It's clear Emerson effed up on their last poll and have released a more accurate one. The early vote is pretty clear this isn't going to be that close. This has nothing to do with the generic ballot.

Edit: Apparently Emerson even admitted they changed their methodology because of the early vote.

Pollsters shoudn't do this.

[KingSweden]

Wow, looks like eday turnout is anemic

I do think this is like a 80% VBM district during regular elections, to be fair

[KingSweden]

Wasserman is heavily implying lesko is poised to win based on early vote data

Not sure how he is assuming that

Returned ballots were a good clue. I’m sticking with Lesko +7

[KingSweden]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

True. Though considering how Republican this area is, I’m sure you could weight that and still come out with Lesko ahead

[KingSweden]

Republicans will win this district.

Boy this is some hard-hitting against the grain analysis.

Hey by the way has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/988982288322060288

How nice to see our dear friend EHarding in Nate Cohn's tweet thread

He liked one of my tweets once.

I am not known as KingSweden on Twitter.

[KingSweden]

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?

Oh my god. And they have Nate Cohn tweeting about how it's the worst congressional special result for Republicans so far. Get your sh*t together.

When in doubt, Nate Cohn is the one you listen to