COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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8/2: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3: <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

8/4: <T>

• Cases: 4,918,420 (+56,246 | ΔW Change: ↓13.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 160,290 (+1,361 | ΔW Change: ↓27.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)

8/5: <W>

• Cases: 4,973,568 (+55,148 | ΔW Change: ↓20.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 161,601 (+1,311 | ΔW Change: ↓13.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

8/6: <Þ>

• Cases: 5,032,179 (+58,611 | ΔW Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 162,804 (+1,203 | ΔW Change: ↓16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)

8/7: <F>

• Cases: 5,095,524 (+63,345 | ΔW Change: ↓10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 164,094 (+1,290 | ΔW Change: ↓11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

8/8: <S>

• Cases: 5,149,723 (+54,199 | ΔW Change: ↓8.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 165,070 (+976 | ΔW Change: ↓15.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

8/9: <Sunday>

• Cases: 5,199,444 (+49,721 | ΔW Change: ↑0.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 165,617 (+547 | ΔW Change: ↑17.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

8/10: <M>

• Cases: 5,251,446 (+52,002 | ΔW Change: ↑7.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 166,192 (+575 | ΔW Change: ↑1.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

8/11 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 5,305,957 (+54,511 | ΔW Change: ↓3.08% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 167,749 (+1,557 | ΔW Change: ↑14.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/12 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 5,360,302 (+54,345 | ΔW Change: ↓1.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 169,131 (+1,382 | ΔW Change: ↑5.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

[riceowl]

But, Herman Cain is still tweeting, so everything's ok.

https://twitter.com/KT_So_It_Goes/status/1293760733738602502

[jimrtex]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

The pro life party folks. The Republican party is pro fetus, but you are on your own after birth.

[jamestroll]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Okay. I can’t get appropriate care for a severe health issue I’ve been dealing with for several years. And how about all those that can’t support their families now? The half billon who will spiral into poverty around the world. How about increases in suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism? How about the destruction in major cities? I could go on.

Social contract my ass.

Not to mention screwing Millennials over for a second time (I.e., Great Recession)
 
And now many of you - Generation Z - will be worse off than Millennials, who are the first generation to be worse off than the previous one.  I would be very scared if I were you - not because of the virus, but because you’re on course to being a truly lost generation.

College bubble has popped (which does make my degree much more valuable)
And if you think closing down schools is a good idea, then you’re really screwed.
Plus the economy, which will eventually burst too.
The trillions added to the debt in just the last few months.
Bankrupt social security.

Again, I could go on.

Thank you for being one of the few people on this forum who understand the truth about this situation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Okay. I can’t get appropriate care for a severe health issue I’ve been dealing with for several years. And how about all those that can’t support their families now? The half billon who will spiral into poverty around the world. How about increases in suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism? How about the destruction in major cities? I could go on.

Social contract my ass.

Not to mention screwing Millennials over for a second time (I.e., Great Recession)
 
And now many of you - Generation Z - will be worse off than Millennials, who are the first generation to be worse off than the previous one.  I would be very scared if I were you - not because of the virus, but because you’re on course to being a truly lost generation.

College bubble has popped (which does make my degree much more valuable)
And if you think closing down schools is a good idea, then you’re really screwed.
Plus the economy, which will eventually burst too.
The trillions added to the debt in just the last few months.
Bankrupt social security.

Again, I could go on.

I actually, surprisingly, think you're largely correct on this in terms of how the pandemic has exacerbated the problems of different generations and people who were already marginalized. However I think you're misattributing it to the lockdowns.

That .4% that you are decrying being protected would have, and still could have, significantly ballooned out of proportion without the measures that were taken in some states. Just look at how the virus was considered to be a population density problem at first and is now worsening in rural areas. It's cliche and a bit schmaltzy to say but we really are in this together-everything affects everything in a circumstance like this. An economy and society isn't supposed to function, at least temporarily, as it normally would during a pandemic of this proportion.

 The real issue has been a  lack of a plan for states to uniformly follow, and a robust social safety net to blunt whatever long-term impacts a slowing down of society would have for the sake of peoples' health. With this disease being as contagious as it is the "social contract" that was brought up really can't be thrown by the wayside. We need to face the facts that this public health crisis is maybe the biggest test our society has ever faced. We are now reckoning with the consequences of our lack of preparation for it and the status quo that led to it compounding and overlapping with other major societal ills and inequities.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a weird story: Judge thanks and sentences acclaimed Georgia Tech coronavirus researcher

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

The pro life party folks. The Republican party is pro fetus, but you are on your own after birth.

I’m pro choice lol

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

Yes. Your "Party of Life" is a death-cult. We get it. You don't have to keep disgracing yourself to remind us.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

Yes. Your "Party of Life" is a death-cult. We get it. You don't have to keep disgracing yourself to remind us.

Your "Party of Science" forces indefinite lockdowns, school closures and cheers for economic ruin all in response to a virus that kills maybe (on the high end) 1% of everyone who gets it (mostly the oldest and most infirm among us, no less).  I don't get it.  Do y'all think no one has ever died before?

[Person Man]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

Not levying taxes for services not provided.

Let's say a school district has 10,000 children of school age 5-17. They assess taxes to raise $7000 per student, or a total of $70M.

They are able to provide in-person schooling for 5000 willing students. 2000 choose on-line charter schools, 1000 choose private or charter schools, and 1000 choose to home school. 1000 prefer to defer education until they believe in-person schooling is safe, and don't like the alternatives.

So taxes are assessed for 9000 students.

That’s not how public goods work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

Or that fewer people are applying. In some places, even if you were making $35 an hour, you still get the same benefits of someone making $10 an hour. It’s just a lot of work for $300 a week. $900 a week is more compelling.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work.  

Jobs would have to be opened, first. Which anecdotally, I know isn't happening. Which is fine because I already have a job but it would be great to have something lined up for next year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Um, the $600 benefit was still being paid through that time period.

Maybe it's just that the economy is continuing to climb out of a big hole?  I think you're trying too hard to tie these statistics to the end of the extra unemployment benefit.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Jobs would have to be opened, first. Which anecdotally, I know isn't happening. Which is fine because I already have a job but it would be great to have something lined up for tomorrow.

Also anecdotally, I know of several small retail businesses/restaurants who have been advertising positions and not receiving any applications.  I've even seen national reporting suggesting such.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Um, the $600 benefit was still being paid through that time period.

Maybe it's just that the economy is continuing to climb out of a big hole?  I think you're trying too hard to tie these statistics to the end of the extra unemployment benefit.

Um, it has been widely reported for months that  the enhanced benefits were set to end July 31 so I can believe an uptick in job-seeking behavior during the month of July.

I agree we are climbing out of a big hole, but enhanced benefits make it a slower climb. 

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Um, the $600 benefit was still being paid through that time period.

Maybe it's just that the economy is continuing to climb out of a big hole?  I think you're trying too hard to tie these statistics to the end of the extra unemployment benefit.

Um, it has been widely reported for months that  the enhanced benefits were set to end July 31 so I can believe an uptick in job-seeking behavior during the month of July.

I agree we are climbing out of a big hole, but enhanced benefits make it a slower climb. 

People need to get jobs, sure, but it will definitely harder to justify hiring people when people can't afford things. This entire thing of just ending stimulus now just feels like when people were done with it in 1938 or why things were slower last time.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/valeriestrauss/status/1293928408733417473

Really

[Del Tachi]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

[Person Man]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

Wasn't there a similar story that a had a contradictory outcome eariler?

[DINGO Joe]

A good article about the CDC and the tracking of "excess deaths"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13?siteid=yhoof2