Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

The turnout patterns in Galicia, Catalonia and the Basque Country are good news for the right-wing camp, I suppose. What about Extremadura?

Catalonia and the Basque Country will elect the same number of seats regardless the turnout. In the Basque Country low turnout is probably good news for EH Bildu and bad news for the PNV. I'd expect some gains for the PSC in Catalonia and for sure the PP will increase its srat count there. I guess the bogus man is going to win a landslide in Galicia,

[It’s so Joever]

Im expecting PP to overperform polls at the expense of everyone else, but especially VOX.

[Mike88]

Yes, this happened:

https://twitter.com/ElPeriodico_Esp/status/1683112631224205321

A man shows up at his polling station wearing flippers and diving goggles

The mayor of Saldaña, Adolfo Palacios (PP) has voted dressed as a Roman emperor and accompanied by a Praetorian guard, as election day coincides with the Roman Market

[Mike88]

6pm turnout update:

2023: 53.12% (-3.73%)
2019N: 56.85%
2019A: 60.76%
2016: 51.21%
2015: 58.37%
2011: 57.65%

Turnout is now down almost everywhere expect in Galicia (+2.70%), Extremadura (+1.40%), Balears (+1.18%), Cantabria (+1.16%), Canarias (+1.03%) and Asturias (+0.61%). In Catalonia turnout is down 11.17% and in Madrid down 7.81%. In Andalusia, turnout is also down 1.67%.

[Mike88]

An important point: The turnout updates don't include the mail-in votes. These 2,5 million ballots will be added to the count when polls close.

[jaichind]

An important point: The turnout updates don't include the mail-in votes. These 2,5 million ballots will be added to the count when polls close.

How does this mail-in vote number compare to the 2019 elections?

[Mike88]

An important point: The turnout updates don't include the mail-in votes. These 2,5 million ballots will be added to the count when polls close.

How does this mail-in vote number compare to the 2019 elections?

In the November 2019 election, there were 900,188 mail-in ballots. In the April 2019 election, it was 1,222,937. This election, there are 2,471,935 mail-in ballots.

[Mike88]

One hour until polls close and the first predictions are revealed.

TVE live feed:

[Oryxslayer]

I mean overall the turnout seems fairly generically comparable to 2019, the sole exceptions of the favorite son Galicia boost, and the Catalonian Separatist abstention - which given it's size drags down everything.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the mail vote increase explains Madrid and a few other cities, both cause of people on vacation and cause said option seems popular everywhere it is offered among urban younger voters.

[Mike88]

I also wouldn't be surprised if the mail vote increase explains Madrid and a few other cities, both cause of people on vacation and cause said option seems popular everywhere it is offered among urban younger voters.

According to what I've just heard in TVE's live feed, Madrid was the area where more voters requested mail-in ballots.

[It’s so Joever]

So much cope in here already.

[DavidB.]

Were there any online voting advice applications?

[Mike88]

Were there any online voting advice applications?

There was this one: https://cluster17.com/espagne/

[Double Carpet]

Question for Spanish experts, was Feijoo considered more moderate than Casado when he became PP leader?

Thanks.

[Mike88]

SigmaDos for TVE:

145-150 PP
113-118 PSOE
    28-31 Sumar
    24-27 Vox

[Logical]

PP cannibalized the hell out of Vox, but it may not be enough.

[Mike88]

GAD3 for Mediaset:

150 PP
112 PSOE
  31 Vox
  27 Sumar

[Logical]

Sociometrica final poll

PP  134-40
PSOE 109-115
VOX 35-39
SMR 32-35

[Mike88]

Smaller and regional parties:

SigmaDos:

    9 ERC
    9 Junts
    6 Bildu
    5 PNV
1-2 BNG
    1 CUP
    1 CC
0-1 Teruel Existe

GAD3:

8 ERC
7 Junts
6 Bildu
5 PNV
2 BNG
1 CUP
1 CC

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports: The PP believes that if it reaches 160 seats, it’ll be able to convince Vox to allow it govern alone rather than in coalition

[PSOL]

Will this finally bury the popular front idea, perhaps the worst holdout of the socialist movement that has only strengthened fascism in all its forms. Hopefully so as Franco won in death against the worst party in Europe who lost a winnable civil war even with everything going for them in the beginning and what could have led to a new socialist state had the Spanish communists and anarchists had not have been divided.

Inherently, the only way to move forward is to advance the nationalities struggle against the fascist Castillians.

[Mike88]

Now we wait for the results.

[Logical]

Important to remember that these polls aren't exit polls. They are polls taken the day before with all the biases and leans of each polling company.

[windjammer]

Important to remember that these polls aren't exit polls. They are polls taken the day before with all the biases and leans of each polling company.

I was quite surprised to see the polls were quite "correct". But I guess we don't know yet lol

[Mike88]

Important to remember that these polls aren't exit polls. They are polls taken the day before with all the biases and leans of each polling company.

I was quite surprised to see the polls were quite "correct". But I guess we don't know yet lol

They were spot on in the November 2019 election and in last May's local elections, but you never know. Results will start being published in 30 minutes.