Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

The official campaign has started now and I'm getting the impression that we're heading to a complex inconclusive result, because there are signs pointing to some recovery in the left. I think the counter-offensive began with former PM Zapatero in a brave interview with Carlos Herrera at the right-wing COPE, followed by multiple media appearances of Pedro Sánchez playing in opposite field (Ana Rosa, Pablo Motos). Sánchez made it out and was convincing enough, so many people is wondering why he didn't come out before to explain things and counter the loads of garbage and fake news thrown against the government. Sánchez seems ro be in good shape to confront Feijóo in the only face-to-face debate consented by the PP. The Sumar campaign is not getting too much traction yet, but according to polls the Yolanda Díaz platform is not far away from the third place. I don't think the eventual recovery of the left will turn the result into a victory, but I'm getting the impression the right reached its ceilling and hopefully the likelihood of a PP-Vox majority is diminishing. However, looking at the projected results in this morning's 40 dB tracking, the scenario looks very uncertain. On the one hand, the PP-Vox rightwing bloc is falling short from a majority getting 169 seats. On the other hand, the PSOE-Sumar progressive alliance is getting 150 seats and would be unable to reach a majority with the usual allies (ERC, Bildu, PNV...). Junts could be placed in the position of kingmaker and the Catalan pro-independence party led by Puigdemont from the exile might demand a price impossible to pay for its support.

The trend seems to be that PP and PSOE will gather the "useful vote" at the expense of other parties, particularly nationalists and regionalists. The competition between Vox and Sumar for the third place could be decisive in some places. As for the nationalists, ERC and PNV seem to be decreasing while Bildu looks strong and Junts might increase. A few other regionalists appear to have chances of winning seats: BNG, CC, UPN and Teruel Existe

[rob in cal]

With no expected support from the regional parties, don’t PP and vox need an absolute majority of seats to form a government?

[Oryxslayer]

With no expected support from the regional parties, don’t PP and vox need an absolute majority of seats to form a government?

Yes, but not every minor party would naturally support a PSOE + others coalition. So there is grey area that could lead to among other things, a repeat election.

[JimJamUK]

Couple of questions:
Are PSOE and Sumar expected to try to cling to power if it’s possible, even if it’s an extremely narrow and diverse range of support parties? Is there a point at which they could form government but would rather go for repeat elections because of how difficult it would be to actually govern?
Is there any expectations of who, if anyone, would benefit from a repeat election?

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1677403613315084288

Inb4 Skye becomes a Vox supporter.

[Velasco]

"Latinos for Abascal " makes as sense as "Aztecs for Cortés". The point is that Latin Americans and people from other foreign origins are increasingly becoming Spanish citizens. We need that influx due to the low birth rates. On the other hand, we have seen the PP appealing to conservative latinos already. I remember a certain evangelical priestwoman blessing Ayuso and Feijóo in a PP rally. I guess they are a good target for the right, given that some Latin Americans are socially conservative due to their cultural or religious background

Couple of questions:
Are PSOE and Sumar expected to try to cling to power if it’s possible, even if it’s an extremely narrow and diverse range of support parties? Is there a point at which they could form government but would rather go for repeat elections because of how difficult it would be to actually govern?
Is there any expectations of who, if anyone, would benefit from a repeat election?

The PSOE-UP government has been able to reach agreements with a broad and diverse range of parties, either peripheral nationalists or regionalists. The formula proved to be surprisingly stable, due to the pragmatism shown by parties like Bildu. Negotiations with the Catalan pro-independence ERC were ocassionally tense, mostly due to the rivalry between ERC and Junts in Catalonia, but at the end they were willing to reach agreements on a number of issues. In case PSOE and Sumar had to rely on the Junts support, it'd be extremely difficult to reach agreements and govern due to the intransigence and radicalism of the Puigdemont supporters. Unlike ERC and Bildu (or the centrist and pragmatic PNV), Junts is not particularly interested in supporting a progressive coalition in Spain. I'm not sure the prospect of a PP-Vox government would change the minds of Puigdemont supporters, even though Vox platform advocates the ban of nationalist and separatist parties

[MRCVzla]

Two weeks until elections, campaign started on Friday, since some days ago the three main newspapers are publishing daily tracking polls, these are the comparisons respect last week
40dB/PRISA (El País/Cadena SER)
PP 31.4% (128) -> +0.5% (+3)
PSOE 29.2% (113) -> +0.5% (+2)
Vox 14.7% (41) -> -0.4% (-2)
Sumar 13.5% (37) -> +0.7% (+2)

Sigma Dos/El Mundo
PP 34.9% (144/147) -> +0.5% (+4)
PSOE 28.3% (105/108) -> +0.1% (+3)
Vox 12.8% (34/37) -> -0.7% (=/+1)
Sumar 12.5% (30/33) -> -0.3% (+1/=)

GAD3/Vocento (ABC and other owned regional newspapers)
PP 36.3% (150) -> -0.3% (-2)
PSOE 28.9% (115) -> +0.5% (+6)
Vox 12.1% (29) -> +0.6% (+2)
Sumar 11.9% (26) -> -0.7% (-6)

40dB is more hopeful of a left-wing comeback (or a least, putting the race some competitive), on the other side GAD3 is more friendly of the PP' expectative to govern in minority with enough seats without need to Vox ask to enter government.

There's a lot of "useful vote" rhetoric around PP/PSOE (PSOE' rise was mostly about Sánchez' interviews on "rival" media), that rhetoric could warm in the turnout the nationalists/regionalists parties, Coalición Canaria and Teruel Existe seats are in risk, some pollsters like GAD3 see there would be a "dual vote" in Navarra and the regional PP branch should get the 1-2 seats who normally are projected to UPN, Catalan indys seems more towards abstention being the most damaged ERC where Junts could done a "sorpasso" in seats (CUP seems to hold just 1 seat in Barcelona), similar competition in Basque parties (PNV and Bildu tied in seats in Euskadi, but Bildu leads thanks to the Navarra seat).

[Mike88]

Tomorrow, the Feijóo vs Sánchez debate will be broadcast by Antena3. It's basically the only major debate of the campaign, as Feijóo refused to attend the TVE debate with other parties on 19 July.

[Velasco]

GAD3 (July 8th)

PP 150 36.3%
PSOE 115 28.9%
VOX 29 12.1%
Sumar 26 11.9%
ERC 9 2.2%
Junts 8 1.9%
EH Bildu 5 1.3%
EAJ-PNV 5 1.1%
BNG 1 0.5%
CUP 1 0.5%


40 dB (July 9th)

PP 128 31.5%
PSOE 113 29.3%
VOX 42 14.9%
Sumar 36 13.1%
ERC 8
Junts 8
 EH Bildu 6
EAJ-PNV 5
BNG 1
CC 1
CUP 1
TE 1

My impresion is that GAD3 tends to overestimate the PP (Narciso Michavila is a good professional, but he's also very close to the PP due to ideology and family ties), while 40 dB overestimates Vox and Sumar (Belén Barreiro was the CIS chief pollster under Zapatero; she was more credible than Félix Tezanos nowadays). I think it's remarkable the PSOE gets similar results in different polls.

 As for peripheral nationalists, it's interesting to take a look at the GAD3 breakdown by regions. For instance, in Catalonia GAD3 is projecting 13 seats for the PSOE (up from 12), 8 for ERC (down from 13), 8 for Junts (no change) 7 for the PP (up from 2) and 7 for Sumar (no change). It's logical to expect the PP is going to grow there and reach a level of support similar to that of 2016, but it's strange the ERC decrese is not paralleled by a PSC or Junts increase.

At national level, I think it'd be reasonable to expect the right reaches a level of support similar to that of 2016 (something like PP 33% and Vox 13%), but let's see how things evolve during this strange campaign

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1677403613315084288

Inb4 Skye becomes a Vox supporter.

At the very least Yo voy a votar was catchy, this certainly is not.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Couple of questions:
Are PSOE and Sumar expected to try to cling to power if it’s possible, even if it’s an extremely narrow and diverse range of support parties? Is there a point at which they could form government but would rather go for repeat elections because of how difficult it would be to actually govern?
Is there any expectations of who, if anyone, would benefit from a repeat election?

With regard to repeating the election, I don't know exactly what is the current zeitgeist on that, but a repeat is what happened 4 years ago, and the 2nd election ended up being worse for PSOE and the left, with PSOE+UP losing 10 seats between then two of them. Sanchez managed to be installed as PM following the November election with the support of PSOE, UP, Mas Pais, PNV, and 4 individuals representing various nationalist and regionalist parties, and only won by 2 votes. ERC and Bildu (18 total) abstained.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2019_Spanish_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2019_Spanish_general_election

[Mike88]

From what I've followed of the debate, on almost every issue the tone of the debate was "But you talked to Vox! But, wait a minute, you talked with Bildu!". No clear winner in the end, but it seems that Sánchez performed a bit worse than Feijóo.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I was only able to see a bit of it (the debate ended at around 4:30 PM Atlas time/5:30 Eastern for those reading the thread after) but I thought Sanchez was a bit too snappy, though of course I agreed with most of he was saying. I thought it could have been moderated better.

[rob in cal]

How much vote by mail, or other forms of early voting is going on?

[Mike88]

Polls on who won the debate:

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo newspaper:

54.2% Feijóo
45.8% Sánchez

Poll conducted on 11 July 2023. Polled 2,091 voters.

Electomanía poll:

52.5% Feijóo
35.8% Sánchez
11.7% Undecided

Poll conducted on 10 and 11 July 2023. Polled 1,987 voters.

[Velasco]

From what I've followed of the debate, on almost every issue the tone of the debate was "But you talked to Vox! But, wait a minute, you talked with Bildu!". No clear winner in the end, but it seems that Sánchez performed a bit worse than Feijóo.

I couldn't follow the full debate, because I was tired and began to feel sick of the tone. During the first stage, devoted to economic issues, Feijóo began to play dirty telling lies and using fake or distorted data, while Pedro Sánchez looked a bit nervous. Apparently Sánchez managed to perform better talking about Vox, but anyway Feijóo succeed in muddling the debate and I think he's the winner. Given that Feijóo won the debate resorting to foul play and lies, in a full Trump mode, I think he won't have any kind of scruple and will do anything to reach power. Unlike Sánchez with Bildu, Feijóo is going to govern with Vox. Given that Feijóo is lacking a real platform other than "revoke sanchismo",  nor he has a project for the future of Spain, the PP will adopt the Vox platform progressively. I would ask anyone following Spanish politics to not to get fooled about it: this is by no means a 'normal' PP comeback. Vox didn't exist before and that party has no equivalent in terms of authoritarianism, hatred of minorities and denialism of gender-based violence or global warming

[Velasco]

Today Feijóo asked the employees of the postal service to work hard and protect the votes,  "in spite of their bosses ". Whoever is able to remember Trump's campaign against the US Posral Service knows what I'm talking about. Shame on the vile delegitimizers.

Cuca Gamarra, PP's secretary general, suggested that the Spanish Postal Service is not deploying the neccessary means

Enric Juliana remarks these statements are not anecdotal. Rather,  there's a deliberate campaign of delegitimazion aimed at creating a climate of rage

https://twitter.com/Hora25/status/1679233160335220738?t=xgUvyu5yp7dgKsgPWF8ucw&a...

[Mike88]

Spectacular maps of results by street since 1982:

https://twitter.com/borjandrinot/status/1679097313686372354

Today we publish the largest electoral map we have made so far. The street-by-street map of all general elections since 1982.

[crals]

Today Feijóo asked the employees of the postal service to work hard and protect the votes,  "in spite of their bosses ". Whoever is able to remember Trump's campaign against the US Posral Service knows what I'm talking about. Shame on the vile delegitimizers.

Cuca Gamarra, PP's secretary general, suggested that the Spanish Postal Service is not deploying the neccessary means

Enric Juliana remarks these statements are not anecdotal. Rather,  there's a deliberate campaign of delegitimazion aimed at creating a climate of rage

https://twitter.com/Hora25/status/1679233160335220738?t=xgUvyu5yp7dgKsgPWF8ucw&a...

Yikes. And this is the supposedly the party of the mainstream center-right.

[Velasco]

Wow anazing maps

Most recent tracking polls detect that the PSOE recovery halted after the debate, while the PP boosted. This means that the distance between the rightwing and the progressive blocs is broadening again, which is key. Every poll released to date is giving an advantage for the right, but there's a big difference between a 46-43 result and a 48-41 one. In the first case scenario, the right would get a result akin to the 2016 elections and would win around 170 seats (6 seats short from a majority). In the second case scenario,  the right wins a clear majority (180 seats or more, the GAD3 projection). Right now the trend points to the latter

Kiko Llaneras' average polling

https://twitter.com/kikollan/status/1679545904028880896?t=H4sz2ql3iAdAVlx9vxRzyQ...

[Velasco]

Yikes. And this is the supposedly the party of the mainstream center-right.

There's no centre-right right anymore and the mainstream right is increasingly radicalized, that's the problem.

We have a serious issue with polarization in contemporary societies, in Spain and other countries. Increasing polarization and the rise of the far-right come together (as well as paranoia and conspiracy theories). Some people in Spain point that trend began after the Madrid bombings and the subsequent elections won by Zapatero in 2004, when right-wing media began to spread conspiracy theories on the authorship of the terror attacks. Since then the Spanish right has crossed red lines on several occassions. Trump success in 2016 and the Vox rise in 2018-2019 have pushed the mainstream right even further. Generally speaking the aim of the right-wing campaign strategists is always the same: create a climate of tension aimed at galvanizing its base and depressing the adversary's. Progressive voters tend to shy away when the tone of the public debate becomes too harsh (let alone the infighting to the left of the PSOE). Lies, conspiracy theories and mud have a clear purpose. It's not the first time they tesort to such tactics, but this moment is turning to be more ominous. We are facing a turning point amidst the summer heat waves and the ravages of global warming. Creating a climate of rage and suspicion is a dangerous precedent for the times to come

[Velasco]

A debate between the spokespersons of the parliamentary groups took place at RTVE public broadcaster. Interesting reply of the EH Bildu spokesman Oskar Matute to the PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra.  A delegation of the Aznar government had conversations,with Arnaldo Otegi and other leaders of Batasuna in a village of Burgos province,  as well as with the ETA leadership at some unespecified locations in France. By that time Aznar said something about the "Basque Liberation Movement" and nobody criticized him for engaging in negotiations with terrorists

https://twitter.com/eldiarioes/status/1679605117581135873?t=hgi_9RsDNq7RHCTyKsDt...

I've just read something in the news that shocks me, even though it doesn't surprise me at all: people in the inner circle of the so-called "emeritus king" say that Juan Carlos I is planning a definitive return to Spain in case Feijóo wins. The former queen Sofia, who is a religious ultraconservative woman, should be considering a vote for Sumar

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

If PP and Vox take power, and L-merito comes back because of it, I can't imagine people wouldn't go to the streets in protest

[MRCVzla]

In the middle of the storm around Correos caused by the Right, more than 2.6 million of applications for vote by-mail were done prior to the election, and of course the Spanish postal service is guaranteeing the extra staff for the loading of all applications and deliveries of votes.

https://twitter.com/Correos/status/1679792435600187393

We have admitted 2,622,808 applications for voting by mail, 1,924,976 submitted in person and 697,832 electronically. Correos is providing the necessary technological, logistical and human resources to guarantee compliance with the commitments entrusted to it.

Today Saturday tracking polls (only seats): Over the week, Sánchez' performance at Atresmedia' face-to-face debate with Feijóo stopped PSOE surge and caused and is PP the one who has improved their projections, also is still very fierce the Vox-Sumar 3rd place race, but still conservative bloc narrow majority at least.

40dB (PRISA): PP 133, PSOE 109, Vox 39, Sumar 38
GAD3 (Vocento): PP 152, PSOE 115, Vox 29, Sumar 25
Sigma Dos (El Mundo): PP 145/148, PSOE 104/107, Sumar 35/37, Vox 33/35
Simple Lógica (eldiario.es): PP 131/139, PSOE 102/110, Sumar 33/39, Vox 32/38
NC Report (La Razón): PP 152/154, PSOE 103/105, Vox 29/31, Sumar 28/30
Data 10 (OK Diario): PP 148, PSOE 107, Vox 32, Sumar 31
Target Point (El Debate): PP 147/151, PSOE 107/109, Vox 32/34, Sumar 28/30
Sondaxe (La Voz de Galicia): PP 135, PSOE 105, Sumar 38, Vox 37

[Velasco]

Vox and Frente Obrero share a sacred mission; Recover Spain

https://twitter.com/AntonioMaestre/status/1680168657479974913?t=Fvb-U512Dzcrrfn3...