Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/14/vladimir-putin-win-ammunition-war-against-west/

"Vladimir Putin is about to win the ammunition war against the West"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/14/vladimir-putin-win-ammunition-war-against-west/

"Vladimir Putin is about to win the ammunition war against the West"

Lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1625677082490437632?ref_src=twsrc...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1625677085275455489
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1625677087251079169

[jaichind]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukrainian-forces-running-low-ammunition-000804407.html

"Ukrainian forces running low on ammunition"

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/14/vladimir-putin-win-ammunition-war-against-west/

"Vladimir Putin is about to win the ammunition war against the West"

Lol
 

That article also quotes

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/13/ukraine-russia-war-putin-news-latest-wagner-bakhmut-attack/

"Ukraine 'using more munitions than West can supply'"

Ukraine is expending more ammunition than Western governments can supply it, Nato’s top official has said as he warned the alliance is in an arms race against Russia.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/UBERSOY1/status/1622855020357029888
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1624143127668834304

[windjammer]

I have the feeling the russian army is going to collapse

[Woody]

Another wave of Iranian Shahed drones attacking right now.

[Woody]

Interesting. The recent drones sound much different than the previous ones. Iran or Russia might be producing new models now:

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1625958630267969536

[Frodo]

Is it fair to compare the battle over Bakhmut to Stalingrad? 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1626019349503901697

[CanadianDemocrat]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

[NOVA Green]

Estimates of Russian losses of likely over 50% of their total tank inventory in the Ukraine War...

Russia has likely lost more than 2,000 tanks in its war in Ukraine, more than half of its operational tank fleet, according to estimates released Wednesday from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The London-based think tank said the loss of the weapons is forcing Russia to rely on its stores of older weapons even as it seeks to increase industrial production.

The estimates suggest that Russia might have lost 50% of modern tanks such as the T-72B3 and T-72B3M and that its inventory of T-80BV/U tanks has been depleted by two-thirds.

Henry Boyd, research fellow at the IISS, estimated a floor of about 1,700 tank losses by Russian forces. “I would suspect the actual figure is somewhere between 20% and 40% higher than that” at between 2,000 and 2,300, he said.

The estimates are used to inform the IISS Military Balance, an annual assessment of military strength worldwide. The report, released Wednesday, puts the current Russian operational tank inventory at 1,800. While Moscow is projected to have a further 5,000 tanks in storage, most are of lower quality and many are likely to be junk, IISS analysts said. Russia’s most modern tank—the T-14 Armata—remains in test, the report said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-likely-lost-more-than-half-of-its-tanks-in-ukraine-estimates-show-c23dabc2

[lfromnj]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

edit: I think its still possible for this to happen but a lot of predictions or statements from a lot of atlas users are far too optimistic. Just want to see how this play out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

It is certainly a bold prediction. Let's see where things stand when the time comes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1625908798970798080?s=20&t=A3pb_T...

It seems that they are now doing the motions.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1625908798970798080?s=20&t=A3pb_T...

It seems that they are now doing the motions.

NATO doesn't admit members with ongoing territorial disputes, which one way or another Ukraine may well not have have after whatever final peace settlement emerges unless we end up going the Frozen Conflict route.

[Logical]

RIP
https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1625837358309335040

[Storr]

RIP
https://twitter.com/InsiderEng/status/1625837358309335040

He lived his entire life in a Russia ruled by Putin, born 11 years after the end of the Soviet Union.

I wonder if nostalgia for the Soviet Union carries much favor with young people in Russia since they never experienced it and were either very young or not born yet during the political/societal chaos and economic turmoil of the 90s.

I doubt many born after the Soviet Union collapsed consider Ukrainians to be "confused" Russians. For their entire lives Ukraine has been a independent country. Sure they might think Ukraine should be aligned with or in some kind of political/economic union (EEU maybe) with Russia.

I doubt it's a coincidence that the Russian leadership, who were all born in the 50s or 60s, holding mindsets stuck in the past, are the ones who started this war.

[jaichind]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230216-live-russia-fires-deadly-barrage-of-missiles-at-targets-across-ukraine

"Live: Russia fires deadly barrage of missiles at targets across Ukraine"

Looks like another wave of missile strikes today.  This also seems to include a bunch of balloons over Kiev.  So it seems Russia is also getting in on the balloon game.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

Quoting for posterity.

It is certainly a bold prediction. Let's see where things stand when the time comes.

It seems less likely than not, but at one point it was also considered a "bold" prediction to say that Ukraine would last longer than four days after the Russian invasion began.

[Woody]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

The Battle of Stalingrad lasted 5 months, the Battle of Verdun lasted 10 months. The Battle of Bakhmut has gone on for 6 months.

With all the wiped out Russian equipment and manpower destroyed in Bakhmut. Ukraine is going to launch a counteroffensive in the spring to liberate Melitopol and the land bridge to Crimea.

What equipment? The fighting in Bakhmut has been almost purely fought with mortars, artillery, and assault infantry. Also, Ukraine is the one sending new brigades from other fronts to Bakhmut, that's how they got kicked out of Kreminna's outskirts. The Russian Army isn't even fighting in Bakhmut, except parts of the VDV.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1626147590990430210?cxt=HHwWhIC8lcmnnpEtA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1626151738104315906?cxt=HHwWhIC8yfuYoJEtA...

[Woody]

Russian missile strikes overnight. Including from the Russian Black Sea fleet. Ukraine claims it shot down 50% of the missiles (16 out of 32)

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1626102338870996992
https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1626134284653285377

[Torie]

Regarding Russia's Black Sea fleet and naval capacity, it's time to finish the job.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11880

One would think that ships in place serving as floating missile launchers could be taken out with the right missiles. Their being used to savage Ukrainian cities must end. It is as if Russia wants to broadcast just why its control of Crimea is a very bad long term business plan.

And back on land:

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Winston Churchill.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/world/europe/russia-military-vuhledar-ukraine.html

“A disastrous Russian assault on Vuhledar, viewed as an opening move in an expected spring offensive, has renewed doubts about Moscow’s ability to sustain a large-scale ground assault.”

'A Russian marine who fought in Vuhledar told the Russian media outlet 7x7, which is based in the Komi region of Russia, that those who survived the battle were considered deserters. The marine, whose identity the news outlet did not disclose, citing the need to protect his safety, said he was part of the third company of the 155th brigade. After the failed assault, he said, only eight soldiers from his company were left alive.

“It would have been better if I had been captured and never returned,” he said."

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1626149657666547713
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1626058972523380740