Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

This is a little petty, but screw it. Just want to remind all that this time last year, Edward Snowden was telling us that it was simply offensive to even suggest Russia would even consider invading Ukraine, and the media were the real villain:

It's extremely petty. When did he say that it was "offensive to even suggest Russia would [] consider invading Ukraine"?  It appears someone  accused him of supporting a Russian invasion of Ukraine by falsely stating that he had never "Unequivocally" expressed that "Russia should not invade Ukraine' (Media Slogan).  He seems to be making a comment about about all the parrots on Twitter demanding that he repeat this media slogan.  The main point he's trying to get across is that the issues are more complex than the media is portraying.  He's Correct.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a little petty, but screw it. Just want to remind all that this time last year, Edward Snowden was telling us that it was simply offensive to even suggest Russia would even consider invading Ukraine, and the media were the real villain:

It's extremely petty. When did he say that it was "offensive to even suggest Russia would [] consider invading Ukraine"?  It appears someone  accused him of supporting a Russian invasion of Ukraine by falsely stating that he had never "Unequivocally" expressed that "Russia should not invade Ukraine' (Media Slogan).  He seems to be making a comment about about all the parrots on Twitter demanding that he repeat this media slogan.  The main point he's trying to get across is that the issues are more complex than the media is portraying.  He's Correct.

Bad-faith criticism and willingness to consider the other party in the worst possible light, to the point of irrationality, is aplenty in this general area. Sad fact, but it is what it is.

[Woody]

Ukraine Is Going To Run Out Of T-64 Tanks

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/

The Ukrainian army went to war with around 800 active T-64 tanks. In the 11 months since Russia widened its attack on Ukraine, the Ukrainians have lost around half of the 40-ton, three-person T-64s.

And in contrast to the other major tank types in Ukrainian service—the T-72 and T-80—there aren’t many outside sources for additional T-64s. Every T-64 the Ukrainian army loses is a T-64 it probably can’t replace.

That helps to explain why Kyiv has been lobbying its allies hard for NATO-style tanks. As the T-64s run out, the Ukrainian army must transition to new, more sustainable tank types.

At some point, potentially within a year, Ukraine will run out of T-64s. While the Kharkiv tank plant could manufacture a few new copies using long-stored components, it’s unlikely the plant could keep pace with losses that, so far, have averaged one T-64 every day or so.

[Hollywood]

Berkhivka/Yahidne is the only domino left from having the final supply road to Bakhmut under fire control. In that case AFU withdrawal from the city becomes significantly more dangerous/forces stationed inside Bakhmut become under semi-encirclement.

Ukrainian higher command probably want to hold the city at all costs before Feb. 24 due to the 1. year anniversary coming up & negate any bad PR with a major city falling. Bakhmut at this stage is not a tactical advantage for Ukraine.

I agree.  The situation is becoming completely untenable for Ukraine, and the cost of reinforcing Bakhmut might have been too great.  .  

To my eyes, the Ukrainian Army is clearly suffering from a drop in manpower across various frontlines, and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.  In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street. I've heard numerous Ukrainian Soldiers lament the number of deaths their groupings have sustained.  Also, the Russians have been reporting an extremely limited number of Ukrainian tanks utilized on the battlefield, and the Russian Military has noted zero confirmed tank eliminations over the course of several days.  There's a nonzero chance that the Ukrainians launch a major counter-attack against the Russians this Spring or Summer. BTW... most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them.  

Meanwhile, the Russians have added at least 300,000 freshly-trained soldiers to the Ukrainian Front, and there appears to be 2 Army Corps. awaiting orders to blitzkrieg the AFU positions in Donetsk once Bakhmut is encircled.  There's also additional battalions that are reinforcing the Kupyansk-Lyman front, and an assault has already begun in the direction of Kupyansk.  

In regards to the advance on Berkhivka/Yahidne, the Russians are also pushing west towards road 00506 that lies along a canal from Chasiv Yar to a portion of Route E40 near Slovyansk.  Once the Russians reach the canal, around 10-15k Ukrainian Troops defending Siversk will get cut-off from the battalions around the Chasiv-Yar-Bakhmut area.  They will be able to flank the AFU from the SW, as well as straddle the canal north to Liman.   If they cross the canal, they cut open a path towards the supply lines from Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka.  

Honestly, the strategy to hold Bakhmut appears to be a mere ruse to convince NATO countries that Ukraine can win as long as they receive enough advanced weaponry to compete with the Russian Armed Forces.  It's effectively an empty gesture cause the strategical value of Bakhmut exists as long as the entire defensive line hold from Soledar to Klichsivka.  I trade 200 German Tanks just to move the Russian Army 10 miles to the east of that line.  

[Storr]

An interview I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782701997916160?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782705215066112?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782708503392256?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782711883919362?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782715516227584?s=20

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782719504969730?s=20

[Storr]

An interview I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782701997916160?s=20

[tweet snips]

Bolding for emphasis added by me. I could see the post-war situation concerning annexed territories of Ukraine being similar to the Soviet Union's annexation of the Baltic States during WWII; where the West refused to recognize that they were a part of the Soviet Union even after the fighting had ended in Europe.


"The problem is, we have to live in the circumstances we’ve got. If you look at the North Korea–South Korea outcome, it’s a terrible outcome. At the same time, it was an outcome that enabled South Korea to flourish under American security guarantees and protection. And, if there were a Ukraine, however much of it—eighty per cent, ninety per cent—which could flourish as a member of the European Union and which could have some type of security guarantee—whether that were full nato accession, whether that were bilateral with the U.S., whether it were multilateral (...)—that would be a victory in the war."

"We want to build a South Korea-style Ukraine, part of the E.U., behind the D.M.Z., where there’s an armistice, not a settlement; where there is no legal recognition of any Russian annexations unless there’s some type of larger bargain, peace settlement; where the Russians make significant concessions as well and there is the move toward an actual security guarantee rather than discussion and promises of a security guarantee. We need to get to the other side of this [I assume 'this' refers to the war] in a way that gives Ukraine a chance to be the country that they want to be, deserve to be, and could be with our support."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

An interview I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782701997916160?s=20

[tweet snips'

Bolding for emphasis added by me. I could see the post-war situation concerning annexed territories of Ukraine being similar to the Soviet Union's annexation of the Baltic States. A situation where the West refused to recognize that they were a part of the Soviet Union.


"The problem is, we have to live in the circumstances we’ve got. If you look at the North Korea–South Korea outcome, it’s a terrible outcome. At the same time, it was an outcome that enabled South Korea to flourish under American security guarantees and protection. And, if there were a Ukraine, however much of it—eighty per cent, ninety per cent—which could flourish as a member of the European Union and which could have some type of security guarantee—whether that were full nato accession, whether that were bilateral with the U.S., whether it were multilateral (...)—that would be a victory in the war."

"We want to build a South Korea-style Ukraine, part of the E.U., behind the D.M.Z., where there’s an armistice, not a settlement; where there is no legal recognition of any Russian annexations unless there’s some type of larger bargain, peace settlement; where the Russians make significant concessions as well and there is the move toward an actual security guarantee rather than discussion and promises of a security guarantee. We need to get to the other side of this in a way that gives Ukraine a chance to be the country that they want to be, deserve to be, and could be with our support."

Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

An interview I found interesting.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1626782701997916160?s=20

[tweet snips]

Bolding for emphasis added by me. I could see the post-war situation concerning annexed territories of Ukraine being similar to the Soviet Union's annexation of the Baltic States during WWII; where the West refused to recognize that they were a part of the Soviet Union even after the fighting had ended in Europe.


"The problem is, we have to live in the circumstances we’ve got. If you look at the North Korea–South Korea outcome, it’s a terrible outcome. At the same time, it was an outcome that enabled South Korea to flourish under American security guarantees and protection. And, if there were a Ukraine, however much of it—eighty per cent, ninety per cent—which could flourish as a member of the European Union and which could have some type of security guarantee—whether that were full nato accession, whether that were bilateral with the U.S., whether it were multilateral (...)—that would be a victory in the war."

"We want to build a South Korea-style Ukraine, part of the E.U., behind the D.M.Z., where there’s an armistice, not a settlement; where there is no legal recognition of any Russian annexations unless there’s some type of larger bargain, peace settlement; where the Russians make significant concessions as well and there is the move toward an actual security guarantee rather than discussion and promises of a security guarantee. We need to get to the other side of this [I assume 'this' refers to the war] in a way that gives Ukraine a chance to be the country that they want to be, deserve to be, and could be with our support."

I have heard on some pro-Ukrainian accounts on Twitter that Ukraine might be willing to let Russia keep Crimea but only after they blow up the bridges first causing it to be isolated and then demand it be demilitarized in any peace treaty

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks

"Ukraine Is Going To Run Out Of T-64 Tanks"

Good thing they have more on the way!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks

"Ukraine Is Going To Run Out Of T-64 Tanks"

Good thing they have more on the way!

Question is, for how long?
I guess that might be decided in Washington.

[Hollywood]

Russian wasting no time after their victory in Paraskoikivka.  They are quickly advancing towards Yahidne and Berkhivka from the N and NE, and they are using their position in Zalianiske to flank the Ukrainians from NW, and possibly, W.  

Per the first map, Russia has artillery positions on the heights overlooking the fields between Yahidne and Berkhivka.  According to Russian sources, panicked Ukrainian Groups fleeing from Paraskoviika ran into Russian positions.  

Russian sources suggest that the AFU have already suffered heavy casualties over the last week, and Ukraine has recently transferred troops from Lyman to the Bakhmut Front.  This was done despite reports that the Russians have started an offensive on the Lyman-Kupyansk Front.  


https://twitter.com/Majakovsk73/status/1626940677476024321

https://twitter.com/Neox_person/status/1627089537460748290

https://twitter.com/P__Oli/status/1627101449304809472

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1627034252033368066

[Virginiá]

I do agree there probably isn't enough room to keep retreating but recent positional losses around the Bakhmut area make it a real question. Most current maps show Bakhmut enveloped on 3 sides by the Russians. This effectively acts as a force multiplier for Russian troops in the area. I don't know enough myself but at least there is the argument to defend somewhere else if Ukraine can't get take back some ground in the region.

Agreed - and thanks for that quote. That was interesting to read.

There might come a point where Ukraine has to retreat or else risk losing considerable manpower/equipment, but in terms of simply not wanting to continue taking losses,  it doesn't always make sense to retreat. Not at least unless they can improve their tactical position or set themselves up for an effect counter attack. Otherwise they'll just end up taking heavy losses further back.

[Virginiá]

In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street.

This has been going on since the beginning.  Ukraine's military had to grow really big, really fast. It's not surprising many older people volunteer or were mobilized. A lot of people also left Ukraine immediately before the invasion or soon after. They were and are also experiencing population decline. Russia's own major population decline doesn't make it much easier, but they also have a much larger population to work with. Some people will always buck at the idea of being forced to fight, even in Ukraine, but videos of that have existed since early last year. Ukraine could only outnumber Russia on the battlefield so long as Putin refused to mobilize any significant number of people.

most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them. 

I think a lot of the enemy equipment they recover is inoperable, but I wouldn't say most. They can and do use vehicles too far gone to fix as parts donors for those in better shape (or to sustain existing stock). Ukraine was a large part of the Soviet defense industry, and while it has atrophied since the 90s, there are still a lot of capable specialists in Ukraine who contribute to the war effort, in addition to major foreign help. That's one thing Ukraine has an advantage in. Morale, significant international support, and the will, and desire, to fight or assist in other ways, such as repairing equipment. They used those old T-62s the Russians deemed too crappy to bother evacuating from Kherson, and practically turned them into BREM recovery vehicles for other armor. Or replacing tank powerpacks on the field. There are more than enough examples suggesting they are having success in sustaining existing vehicles, and what they can't fix themselves, can generally get fixed in allied European countries.

and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.

IDK where you look primarily, but twitter and reddit have a ton of videos floating around and there seems to be a lot of Ukrainian vehicles on the field since last year. I mean, just look at this catalogued list of military aid:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

With the caveat that a sizable portion of certain vehicles - particularly IFVs and tanks, are inbound within the next 2 months or for some of the tanks, an extended period as they are refitted - like the Czech defense contractor EA restoring and modernizing at least 90 T-72Bs for Ukraine, probably through May or June.

Ukraine has gotten a lot of IMVs and APCs, like up-armored Humvees, MRAPs of various types, and M1117s, M113s and BMPs. Not as many IFVs until the recent donations of the past month and a half. That is a considerable amount of heavy weapons and vehicles, especially when stacked onto their existing equipment. The US could rather easily send many more Bradleys, and probably will, almost surely with many hundreds more MRAPs and M113s. America has a lot of redundant IMVs/APCs sitting around collecting dust, and the US's desire and willingness to offload this to Ukraine is readily apparent in their military aid. So yeah, Ukraine's much larger army needs more vehicles for sure, but they do have a lot right now and will likely see large additional quantities of some of the aforementioned vehicles from the US over the course of 2023.


My point really is that you're making some of this sound worse than it is, or are IMO overly underestimating Ukraine's own capabilities, such as their ability to sustain their equipment.

[Hindsight was 2020]

In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street.

This has been going on since the beginning.  Ukraine's military had to grow really big, really fast. It's not surprising many older people volunteer or were mobilized. A lot of people also left Ukraine immediately before the invasion or soon after. They were and are also experiencing population decline. Russia's own major population decline doesn't make it much easier, but they also have a much larger population to work with. Some people will always buck at the idea of being forced to fight, even in Ukraine, but videos of that have existed since early last year. Ukraine could only outnumber Russia on the battlefield so long as Putin refused to mobilize any significant number of people.

most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them. 

I think a lot of the enemy equipment they recover is inoperable, but I wouldn't say most. They can and do use vehicles too far gone to fix as parts donors for those in better shape (or to sustain existing stock). Ukraine was a large part of the Soviet defense industry, and while it has atrophied since the 90s, there are still a lot of capable specialists in Ukraine who contribute to the war effort, in addition to major foreign help. That's one thing Ukraine has an advantage in. Morale, significant international support, and the will, and desire, to fight or assist in other ways, such as repairing equipment. They used those old T-62s the Russians deemed too crappy to bother evacuating from Kherson, and practically turned them into BREM recovery vehicles for other armor. Or replacing tank powerpacks on the field. There are more than enough examples suggesting they are having success in sustaining existing vehicles, and what they can't fix themselves, can generally get fixed in allied European countries.

and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.

IDK where you look primarily, but twitter and reddit have a ton of videos floating around and there seems to be a lot of Ukrainian vehicles on the field since last year. I mean, just look at this catalogued list of military aid:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

With the caveat that a sizable portion of certain vehicles - particularly IFVs and tanks, are inbound within the next 2 months or for some of the tanks, an extended period as they are refitted - like the Czech defense contractor EA restoring and modernizing at least 90 T-72Bs for Ukraine, probably through May or June.

Ukraine has gotten a lot of IMVs and APCs, like up-armored Humvees, MRAPs of various types, and M1117s, M113s and BMPs. Not as many IFVs until the recent donations of the past month and a half. That is a considerable amount of heavy weapons and vehicles, especially when stacked onto their existing equipment. The US could rather easily send many more Bradleys, and probably will, almost surely with many hundreds more MRAPs and M113s. America has a lot of redundant IMVs/APCs sitting around collecting dust, and the US's desire and willingness to offload this to Ukraine is readily apparent in their military aid.


My point really is that you're making some of this sound worse than it is, or are IMO overly underestimating Ukraine's own capabilities, such as their ability to sustain their equipment.

Also using images you see on social media as proof of the Ukrainian army being in awful shape or something is kinda hypocritical considering he also was hyping up the Russian mobilized troops and good knows there is an abundance of social media vids and pics showing those troops as poorly trained, ill equipped, and demoralized

[Hollywood]

In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street.

This has been going on since the beginning.  Ukraine's military had to grow really big, really fast. It's not surprising many older people volunteer or were mobilized. A lot of people also left Ukraine immediately before the invasion or soon after. They were and are also experiencing population decline. Russia's own major population decline doesn't make it much easier, but they also have a much larger population to work with. Some people will always buck at the idea of being forced to fight, even in Ukraine, but videos of that have existed since early last year. Ukraine could only outnumber Russia on the battlefield so long as Putin refused to mobilize any significant number of people.

most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them. 

I think a lot of the enemy equipment they recover is inoperable, but I wouldn't say most. They can and do use vehicles too far gone to fix as parts donors for those in better shape (or to sustain existing stock). Ukraine was a large part of the Soviet defense industry, and while it has atrophied since the 90s, there are still a lot of capable specialists in Ukraine who contribute to the war effort, in addition to major foreign help. That's one thing Ukraine has an advantage in. Morale, significant international support, and the will, and desire, to fight or assist in other ways, such as repairing equipment. They used those old T-62s the Russians deemed too crappy to bother evacuating from Kherson, and practically turned them into BREM recovery vehicles for other armor. Or replacing tank powerpacks on the field. There are more than enough examples suggesting they are having success in sustaining existing vehicles, and what they can't fix themselves, can generally get fixed in allied European countries.

and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.

IDK where you look primarily, but twitter and reddit have a ton of videos floating around and there seems to be a lot of Ukrainian vehicles on the field since last year. I mean, just look at this catalogued list of military aid:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

With the caveat that a sizable portion of certain vehicles - particularly IFVs and tanks, are inbound within the next 2 months or for some of the tanks, an extended period as they are refitted - like the Czech defense contractor EA restoring and modernizing at least 90 T-72Bs for Ukraine, probably through May or June.

Ukraine has gotten a lot of IMVs and APCs, like up-armored Humvees, MRAPs of various types, and M1117s, M113s and BMPs. Not as many IFVs until the recent donations of the past month and a half. That is a considerable amount of heavy weapons and vehicles, especially when stacked onto their existing equipment. The US could rather easily send many more Bradleys, and probably will, almost surely with many hundreds more MRAPs and M113s. America has a lot of redundant IMVs/APCs sitting around collecting dust, and the US's desire and willingness to offload this to Ukraine is readily apparent in their military aid.


My point really is that you're making some of this sound worse than it is, or are IMO overly underestimating Ukraine's own capabilities, such as their ability to sustain their equipment.

Also using images you see on social media as proof of the Ukrainian army being in awful shape or something is kinda hypocritical considering he also was hyping up the Russian mobilized troops and good knows there is an abundance of social media vids and pics showing those troops as poorly trained, ill equipped, and demoralized

My objection was not that they were social media posts, but that the social media posts used photos and videos to make over-generalizations and misrepresentations.  For example, during the Kharkiv Offensive, posters often conflated the poorly-trained and equipped DPR and LPR troops that were routed with the Russian Army.  During the Soledar Offensive, posters would often post sources that conflated the death of Prisoners with well-trained Wagner Contractors even though there were articles from their beloved mainstream media contradicting their POV.  I did view content depicting Russian Troops consuming alcohol, and there were definitely some morons.  That doesn't mean that most Russian Troops are drinking on duty just like a battalion of Ukrainian Soldiers with Neo-Nazis doesn't mean all Ukrainians are Nazis.  It's F-ing silly. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/russias-wagner-forces-suffered-30000-casualties-in-ukraine-us

In regards to the October Mobilization of Russian Troops, a 1/3 of them are veterans returning to Ukraine, and 2/3rds were trained before deploying to Ukraine.  According to Russia, 300,000 trained troops have been mobilized, and they are now waiting for orders to launch the 'Major Winter Offensive".  However, Ukraine and the US claimed that the mobilization had failed, and now they are claiming that Russia has amassed 500,000 Troops.  The number of Wagner Troops has also increased over the past year.  According to Ukraine, the hype was justified. 

And I don't think it's hypocritical to pick-and-choose the social media content based on my past experience determining the validity and unreliability of the information provided by the source.  And this is a situation where both the reliable Ukrainian and Russian advocates are confirming that Russia made advances towards Yahidne and Berkhivka.  I've never contested information that both sides confirmed, unless I knew it was false. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street.

This has been going on since the beginning.  Ukraine's military had to grow really big, really fast. It's not surprising many older people volunteer or were mobilized. A lot of people also left Ukraine immediately before the invasion or soon after. They were and are also experiencing population decline. Russia's own major population decline doesn't make it much easier, but they also have a much larger population to work with. Some people will always buck at the idea of being forced to fight, even in Ukraine, but videos of that have existed since early last year. Ukraine could only outnumber Russia on the battlefield so long as Putin refused to mobilize any significant number of people.

most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them. 

I think a lot of the enemy equipment they recover is inoperable, but I wouldn't say most. They can and do use vehicles too far gone to fix as parts donors for those in better shape (or to sustain existing stock). Ukraine was a large part of the Soviet defense industry, and while it has atrophied since the 90s, there are still a lot of capable specialists in Ukraine who contribute to the war effort, in addition to major foreign help. That's one thing Ukraine has an advantage in. Morale, significant international support, and the will, and desire, to fight or assist in other ways, such as repairing equipment. They used those old T-62s the Russians deemed too crappy to bother evacuating from Kherson, and practically turned them into BREM recovery vehicles for other armor. Or replacing tank powerpacks on the field. There are more than enough examples suggesting they are having success in sustaining existing vehicles, and what they can't fix themselves, can generally get fixed in allied European countries.

and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.

IDK where you look primarily, but twitter and reddit have a ton of videos floating around and there seems to be a lot of Ukrainian vehicles on the field since last year. I mean, just look at this catalogued list of military aid:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

With the caveat that a sizable portion of certain vehicles - particularly IFVs and tanks, are inbound within the next 2 months or for some of the tanks, an extended period as they are refitted - like the Czech defense contractor EA restoring and modernizing at least 90 T-72Bs for Ukraine, probably through May or June.

Ukraine has gotten a lot of IMVs and APCs, like up-armored Humvees, MRAPs of various types, and M1117s, M113s and BMPs. Not as many IFVs until the recent donations of the past month and a half. That is a considerable amount of heavy weapons and vehicles, especially when stacked onto their existing equipment. The US could rather easily send many more Bradleys, and probably will, almost surely with many hundreds more MRAPs and M113s. America has a lot of redundant IMVs/APCs sitting around collecting dust, and the US's desire and willingness to offload this to Ukraine is readily apparent in their military aid.


My point really is that you're making some of this sound worse than it is, or are IMO overly underestimating Ukraine's own capabilities, such as their ability to sustain their equipment.

Also using images you see on social media as proof of the Ukrainian army being in awful shape or something is kinda hypocritical considering he also was hyping up the Russian mobilized troops and good knows there is an abundance of social media vids and pics showing those troops as poorly trained, ill equipped, and demoralized

My objection was not that they were social media posts, but that the social media posts used photos and videos to make over-generalizations and misrepresentations.  For example, during the Kharkiv Offensive, posters often conflated the poorly-trained and equipped DPR and LPR troops that were routed with the Russian Army.  During the Soledar Offensive, posters would often post sources that conflated the death of Prisoners with well-trained Wagner Contractors even though there were articles from their beloved mainstream media contradicting their POV.  I did view content depicting Russian Troops consuming alcohol, and there were definitely some morons.  That doesn't mean that most Russian Troops are drinking on duty just like a battalion of Ukrainian Soldiers with Neo-Nazis doesn't mean all Ukrainians are Nazis.  It's F-ing silly. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/russias-wagner-forces-suffered-30000-casualties-in-ukraine-us

In regards to the October Mobilization of Russian Troops, a 1/3 of them are veterans returning to Ukraine, and 2/3rds were trained before deploying to Ukraine.  According to Russia, 300,000 trained troops have been mobilized, and they are now waiting for orders to launch the 'Major Winter Offensive".  However, Ukraine and the US claimed that the mobilization had failed, and now they are claiming that Russia has amassed 500,000 Troops.  The number of Wagner Troops has also increased over the past year.  According to Ukraine, the hype was justified. 

And I don't think it's hypocritical to pick-and-choose the social media content based on my past experience determining the validity and unreliability of the information provided by the source.  And this is a situation where both the reliable Ukrainian and Russian advocates are confirming that Russia made advances towards Yahidne and Berkhivka.  I've never contested information that both sides confirmed, unless I knew it was false. 

Okay so first off the Russian army was beaten in Kharkiv this “no it was just the DPR and LPR troops” is a cope myth. Also equating the abundance of evidence of how poorly trained the Russia army is with just 1 vid of some soldiers getting hammered is massively disingenuous. 4 pages ago I posted of link to a vid of Russian troops fighting in Kreminna and they are just firing their guns up into the air strap style hoping to hit something. So no matter how hard you try the push the talking point it’s clear to the rest of us that the Russian army is not a well trained or disciplined army and is certainly inferior to the Ukrainian one right now

[Hollywood]

In regards to manpower, Ukraine is increasingly drafting both underage and over-age civilians for service, and I've seen a number of videos where Old Guys are fighting Army Recruiters in the street.

This has been going on since the beginning.  Ukraine's military had to grow really big, really fast. It's not surprising many older people volunteer or were mobilized. A lot of people also left Ukraine immediately before the invasion or soon after. They were and are also experiencing population decline. Russia's own major population decline doesn't make it much easier, but they also have a much larger population to work with. Some people will always buck at the idea of being forced to fight, even in Ukraine, but videos of that have existed since early last year. Ukraine could only outnumber Russia on the battlefield so long as Putin refused to mobilize any significant number of people.

most of the tanks you see Ukraine pulling around as trophies are inoperable, and the AFU doesn't have the means to restore them. 

I think a lot of the enemy equipment they recover is inoperable, but I wouldn't say most. They can and do use vehicles too far gone to fix as parts donors for those in better shape (or to sustain existing stock). Ukraine was a large part of the Soviet defense industry, and while it has atrophied since the 90s, there are still a lot of capable specialists in Ukraine who contribute to the war effort, in addition to major foreign help. That's one thing Ukraine has an advantage in. Morale, significant international support, and the will, and desire, to fight or assist in other ways, such as repairing equipment. They used those old T-62s the Russians deemed too crappy to bother evacuating from Kherson, and practically turned them into BREM recovery vehicles for other armor. Or replacing tank powerpacks on the field. There are more than enough examples suggesting they are having success in sustaining existing vehicles, and what they can't fix themselves, can generally get fixed in allied European countries.

and don't seem to have may armored vehicles or tanks.

IDK where you look primarily, but twitter and reddit have a ton of videos floating around and there seems to be a lot of Ukrainian vehicles on the field since last year. I mean, just look at this catalogued list of military aid:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

With the caveat that a sizable portion of certain vehicles - particularly IFVs and tanks, are inbound within the next 2 months or for some of the tanks, an extended period as they are refitted - like the Czech defense contractor EA restoring and modernizing at least 90 T-72Bs for Ukraine, probably through May or June.

Ukraine has gotten a lot of IMVs and APCs, like up-armored Humvees, MRAPs of various types, and M1117s, M113s and BMPs. Not as many IFVs until the recent donations of the past month and a half. That is a considerable amount of heavy weapons and vehicles, especially when stacked onto their existing equipment. The US could rather easily send many more Bradleys, and probably will, almost surely with many hundreds more MRAPs and M113s. America has a lot of redundant IMVs/APCs sitting around collecting dust, and the US's desire and willingness to offload this to Ukraine is readily apparent in their military aid.


My point really is that you're making some of this sound worse than it is, or are IMO overly underestimating Ukraine's own capabilities, such as their ability to sustain their equipment.

Also using images you see on social media as proof of the Ukrainian army being in awful shape or something is kinda hypocritical considering he also was hyping up the Russian mobilized troops and good knows there is an abundance of social media vids and pics showing those troops as poorly trained, ill equipped, and demoralized

My objection was not that they were social media posts, but that the social media posts used photos and videos to make over-generalizations and misrepresentations.  For example, during the Kharkiv Offensive, posters often conflated the poorly-trained and equipped DPR and LPR troops that were routed with the Russian Army.  During the Soledar Offensive, posters would often post sources that conflated the death of Prisoners with well-trained Wagner Contractors even though there were articles from their beloved mainstream media contradicting their POV.  I did view content depicting Russian Troops consuming alcohol, and there were definitely some morons.  That doesn't mean that most Russian Troops are drinking on duty just like a battalion of Ukrainian Soldiers with Neo-Nazis doesn't mean all Ukrainians are Nazis.  It's F-ing silly. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/russias-wagner-forces-suffered-30000-casualties-in-ukraine-us

In regards to the October Mobilization of Russian Troops, a 1/3 of them are veterans returning to Ukraine, and 2/3rds were trained before deploying to Ukraine.  According to Russia, 300,000 trained troops have been mobilized, and they are now waiting for orders to launch the 'Major Winter Offensive".  However, Ukraine and the US claimed that the mobilization had failed, and now they are claiming that Russia has amassed 500,000 Troops.  The number of Wagner Troops has also increased over the past year.  According to Ukraine, the hype was justified. 

And I don't think it's hypocritical to pick-and-choose the social media content based on my past experience determining the validity and unreliability of the information provided by the source.  And this is a situation where both the reliable Ukrainian and Russian advocates are confirming that Russia made advances towards Yahidne and Berkhivka.  I've never contested information that both sides confirmed, unless I knew it was false. 

Okay so first off the Russian army was beaten in Kharkiv this “no it was just the DPR and LPR troops” is a cope myth. Also equating the abundance of evidence of how poorly trained the Russia army is with just 1 vid of some soldiers getting hammered is massively disingenuous. 4 pages ago I posted of link to a vid of Russian troops fighting in Kreminna and they are just firing their guns up into the air strap style hoping to hit something. So no matter how hard you try the push the talking point it’s clear to the rest of us that the Russian army is not a well trained or disciplined army and is certainly inferior to the Ukrainian one right now

You're Wrong.  The reason you are wrong is cause you were brainwashed by Ukrainian Propaganda that 
sought to over-exaggerate the Ukrainian Army's impressive accomplishment in Kharkiv by falsely claiming that the region was army with "Professional Russian Troops".  There were only a few professional groupings defending Kharkiv like the 144th Guards Motorized Division, which had to reinforce with untrained conscripts due to the heavy loses suffered in Kyiv.  Most of the Professional Russian Forces were relocated to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

Per Russian sources before, and after, the offensive, the majority of troops were Ukrainian Separatist of the LPR, but mostly, DPR.   They were under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and they consisted of untrained and poorly equipped soldiers.  So congratulations to Ukraine.  They were able to kill Ukrainian separatists and recent Russian Conscripts by over-running them with an 8-1 numerical advantage.  You can see why Zelensky wouldn't want to acknowledge that they fought mostly Ukrainians during the Kharkiv Offensive, right? 

I suppose we'll just have to see how the Ukrainian Army performs with even numbers against fresh Russian Soldiers that are better trained and equipped under the command of experienced Veterans. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You're Wrong.  The reason you are wrong is cause you were brainwashed by Ukrainian Propaganda that 
sought to over-exaggerate the Ukrainian Army's impressive accomplishment in Kharkiv by falsely claiming that the region was army with "Professional Russian Troops".  There were only a few professional groupings defending Kharkiv like the 144th Guards Motorized Division, which had to reinforce with untrained conscripts due to the heavy loses suffered in Kyiv.  Most of the Professional Russian Forces were relocated to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

Per Russian sources before, and after, the offensive, the majority of troops were Ukrainian Separatist of the LPR, but mostly, DPR.   They were under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and they consisted of untrained and poorly equipped soldiers.  So congratulations to Ukraine.  They were able to kill Ukrainian separatists and recent Russian Conscripts by over-running them with an 8-1 numerical advantage.  You can see why Zelensky wouldn't want to acknowledge that they fought mostly Ukrainians during the Kharkiv Offensive, right? 

I suppose we'll just have to see how the Ukrainian Army performs with even numbers against fresh Russian Soldiers that are better trained and equipped under the command of experienced Veterans. 

In your view, where are the best troops Ukraine has at the moment? And on what fronts do you think those troops are presently situated?

[Hollywood]

You're Wrong.  The reason you are wrong is cause you were brainwashed by Ukrainian Propaganda that 
sought to over-exaggerate the Ukrainian Army's impressive accomplishment in Kharkiv by falsely claiming that the region was army with "Professional Russian Troops".  There were only a few professional groupings defending Kharkiv like the 144th Guards Motorized Division, which had to reinforce with untrained conscripts due to the heavy loses suffered in Kyiv.  Most of the Professional Russian Forces were relocated to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

Per Russian sources before, and after, the offensive, the majority of troops were Ukrainian Separatist of the LPR, but mostly, DPR.   They were under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and they consisted of untrained and poorly equipped soldiers.  So congratulations to Ukraine.  They were able to kill Ukrainian separatists and recent Russian Conscripts by over-running them with an 8-1 numerical advantage.  You can see why Zelensky wouldn't want to acknowledge that they fought mostly Ukrainians during the Kharkiv Offensive, right? 

I suppose we'll just have to see how the Ukrainian Army performs with even numbers against fresh Russian Soldiers that are better trained and equipped under the command of experienced Veterans. 

In your view, where are the best troops Ukraine has at the moment? And on what fronts do you think those troops are presently situated?

There are good brigrades defending the T0504 from Chasiv Yar to Konstyantynivka and down to New York. 

Around the Russian bulge through Soledar, there are good battalions from NW Bakhmut to Siversk, but they have been significantly depleted, and have been put into a vulnerable position by the Russian advance.   

The forces attacking Kremmina via Torske, Lyman and Yampil seem decent, but again they seem like they've lost steam due to depletion. 

Ukraine also have significant groupings to defend Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Vuhledar, Lyman, Kherson, and Marinka to Avdiivka. They've pulled troops from these areas just to hold onto Bakhmut.

[jaichind]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-uk-to-give-kyiv-longer-range-weapons

"Ukraine Situation Report: UK To Give Kyiv “Longer-Range Weapons”"

It seems the UK will provide Ukraine with “Longer-Range Weapons”.  Details are not clear on exactly what.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/less-than-quarter-leopard-2-challenger-2-abrams-tanks-arrive-ukraine-spring-offensive-2023-6sfzb5h3r

"Less than quarter of pledged tanks to arrive for Ukraine spring offensive"

Kyiv is expecting its supporters to send up to 320 western tanks in total but estimates suggest barely 50 will reach the front lines by the start of April

[Logical]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-uk-to-give-kyiv-longer-range-weapons

"Ukraine Situation Report: UK To Give Kyiv “Longer-Range Weapons”"

It seems the UK will provide Ukraine with “Longer-Range Weapons”.  Details are not clear on exactly what.

It's Storm Shadow missiles. Right now it can only be air launched by Western jets but I'm sure they'll figure out a way for it to be usable by Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

[Hindsight was 2020]

You're Wrong.  The reason you are wrong is cause you were brainwashed by Ukrainian Propaganda that 
sought to over-exaggerate the Ukrainian Army's impressive accomplishment in Kharkiv by falsely claiming that the region was army with "Professional Russian Troops".  There were only a few professional groupings defending Kharkiv like the 144th Guards Motorized Division, which had to reinforce with untrained conscripts due to the heavy loses suffered in Kyiv.  Most of the Professional Russian Forces were relocated to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

Per Russian sources before, and after, the offensive, the majority of troops were Ukrainian Separatist of the LPR, but mostly, DPR.   They were under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and they consisted of untrained and poorly equipped soldiers.  So congratulations to Ukraine.  They were able to kill Ukrainian separatists and recent Russian Conscripts by over-running them with an 8-1 numerical advantage.  You can see why Zelensky wouldn't want to acknowledge that they fought mostly Ukrainians during the Kharkiv Offensive, right? 

I suppose we'll just have to see how the Ukrainian Army performs with even numbers against fresh Russian Soldiers that are better trained and equipped under the command of experienced Veterans. 

In your view, where are the best troops Ukraine has at the moment? And on what fronts do you think those troops are presently situated?

I like he says I’m brainwashed by Ukrainian propaganda and his proof is what the Russians are saying lol

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/ukraine-war-over-unless-eu-boosts-military-support-says-top-diplomat

"Ukraine war ‘over’ unless EU boosts military support, says top diplomat"