Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TheReckoning]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/

"U.S. Warns Ukraine It Faces a Pivotal Moment in War"

The USA, anonymously, now wants to put some caps on the scale of help despite its claims of "As long as it takes"

"We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can't do anything and everything forever," said one senior administration official, referring to Ukraine's leaders. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, added that it was the administration's "very strong view" that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.
"'As long as it takes' pertains to the amount of conflict," the official added. "It doesn't pertain to the amount of assistance."

It’s not about putting caps on it’s about concern that the Putin simps in congress are going to cut funding so they’re saying Ukraine should maximize what it’s getting now

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

[Virginiá]

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

The war has been going on not even a full year yet. How on earth does that qualify as a 'perpetual' war?

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Iran might end up donating arms to support Ukraine:

The U.S. military is considering sending Ukraine thousands of seized weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition once bound for Iran-backed fighters in Yemen, an unprecedented step that would help Kyiv battle Russian forces, U.S. and European officials said.

U.S. officials said they are looking at sending Ukraine more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses seized in recent months off the Yemen coast from smugglers suspected of working for Iran.

The challenge for the Biden administration is finding a legal justification for taking weapons from one conflict and transferring them to another. The U.N. arms embargo requires the U.S. and its allies to destroy, store or get rid of the seized weapons. Biden administration lawyers have been looking at whether the resolution creates any wiggle room for them to transfer the weapons to Ukraine, according to U.S. officials.

Advocates of the idea said President Biden might be able to resolve the legal question by crafting an executive order, or working with Congress to empower the U.S. to seize the weapons under civil forfeiture authorities and send them to Ukraine.

There is precedent for the U.S. to use asset forfeiture laws to seize Iranian weapons. The Justice Department used such laws in 2020 to take control of two shipments of seized weapons, including guided antitank missiles, surface-to-air missiles and cruise missile parts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/seized-weapons-bound-for-yemen-may-go-to-ukraine-2516b45d?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[Comrade Funk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/

"U.S. Warns Ukraine It Faces a Pivotal Moment in War"

The USA, anonymously, now wants to put some caps on the scale of help despite its claims of "As long as it takes"

"We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can't do anything and everything forever," said one senior administration official, referring to Ukraine's leaders. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, added that it was the administration's "very strong view" that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.
"'As long as it takes' pertains to the amount of conflict," the official added. "It doesn't pertain to the amount of assistance."

It’s not about putting caps on it’s about concern that the Putin simps in congress are going to cut funding so they’re saying Ukraine should maximize what it’s getting now

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

So I take it you support cutting all military aid to Israel who have been at war since the 1940s?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

The war has been going on not even a full year yet. How on earth does that qualify as a 'perpetual' war?

It qualifies when you want to hide your Russian sympathies under guise

[TheReckoning]

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

The war has been going on not even a full year yet. How on earth does that qualify as a 'perpetual' war?

There has been little change over the last few months, and no reason to believe there will be change in the future. Ukraine has gained something of the upper hand since the invasion began a year ago- and that’s something to celebrate- but if things don’t change over the next year or so, it’s possible some people in places of power are thinking that the war continuing is better than the war ending.

[Virginiá]

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

The war has been going on not even a full year yet. How on earth does that qualify as a 'perpetual' war?

There has been little change over the last few months, and no reason to believe there will be change in the future. Ukraine has gained something of the upper hand since the invasion began a year ago- and that’s something to celebrate- but if things don’t change over the next year or so, it’s possible some people in places of power are thinking that the war continuing is better than the war ending.

February 1942 - June 1942

There's barely been any change in the front lines on the eastern front. We can't keep funding the USSR in this perpetual war!

You do know offensives and counter offensives don't just happen one after another, with no respite, right?

[TheReckoning]

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

The war has been going on not even a full year yet. How on earth does that qualify as a 'perpetual' war?

There has been little change over the last few months, and no reason to believe there will be change in the future. Ukraine has gained something of the upper hand since the invasion began a year ago- and that’s something to celebrate- but if things don’t change over the next year or so, it’s possible some people in places of power are thinking that the war continuing is better than the war ending.

February 1942 - June 1942

There's barely been any change in the front lines on the eastern front. We can't keep funding the USSR in this perpetual war!

You do know offensives and counter offensives don't just happen one after another, with no respite, right?

Oh come on, there’s a difference between a World War and two regional powers battling it out because some megalomaniac tried to assert whatever dominance he had left.

[Virginiá]

Oh come on, there’s a difference between a World War and two regional powers battling it out because some megalomaniac tried to assert whatever dominance he had left.

The point wasn't to compare this regional war to a world war. It was to use as an example of how even great powers have to rest, reconstitute and build up their forces and the resources and logistical capabilities to supply them. This is even more true for a smaller nation like Ukraine, which needs more time to do the same for a comparably smaller army. And this doesn't even factor in the time Ukraine has to spend waiting for additional arms from foreign partners to use in said offensives.

It was also to point out that even after months of lower-intensity fighting and relatively little changes at the front, major changes can happen once offensive operations pick up again.

I don't deny that this war could settle into an enduring stalemate where neither side can gain a decisive advantage, but trying to argue that has already happened just because of a lull in fighting as each side is consolidating forces to launch offensives in the near future is ridiculous. It's been well-known and not a secret that Ukraine has been consolidating its resources and manpower for another offensive with new, more modern western weapons pledged over the past few months. Again, not exactly out of the ordinary for this kind of war...

[The Mikado]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/CatherineBelton/status/1625459252633513984?s=20&t=K9mr4V...
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1625481739048038401?s=20&t=K9mr4VE2LrbH9M...
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1625516659904585731?s=20&t=K9mr4V...

This is why in any future peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia, Moldova (as well as Belarus) must be included as participants, and not as bystanders. 

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/fc8d51c8-5202-4862-a653-87d1603deded

"‘We are for peace’: Latin America rejects pleas to send Ukraine weapons"

[CumbrianLefty]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Bumping, two weeks later. Bakhmut STILL hasn't fallen yet.

Ngl, at the start of the year I thought it would have gone by mid-February.

It is now.....mid-February.

[Torie]

Oh come on, there’s a difference between a World War and two regional powers battling it out because some megalomaniac tried to assert whatever dominance he had left.

The point wasn't to compare this regional war to a world war. It was to use as an example of how even great powers have to rest, reconstitute and build up their forces and the resources and logistical capabilities to supply them. This is even more true for a smaller nation like Ukraine, which needs more time to do the same for a comparably smaller army. And this doesn't even factor in the time Ukraine has to spend waiting for additional arms from foreign partners to use in said offensives.

It was also to point out that even after months of lower-intensity fighting and relatively little changes at the front, major changes can happen once offensive operations pick up again.

I don't deny that this war could settle into an enduring stalemate where neither side can gain a decisive advantage, but trying to argue that has already happened just because of a lull in fighting as each side is consolidating forces to launch offensives in the near future is ridiculous. It's been well-known and not a secret that Ukraine has been consolidating its resources and manpower for another offensive with new, more modern western weapons pledged over the past few months. Again, not exactly out of the ordinary for this kind of war...

In their press conference yesterday, the Defense Secretary and the Joint Chiefs guy both confirmed that Ukraine is gearing up for a spring offensive, and the West is arming Ukraine to do it. Russia either plans one, or is bluffing one, so we might have two offensives at once. I am not sure how that will work out.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1625807075799445504

[jaichind]

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus243769767/Panzer-Risse-in-der-Leopard-Koalition-ploetzlich-steht-Deutschland-ziemlich-allein-da.html

Der Welt complains that now Germany is alone in the "tank coalition" as others drop out.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/world/russia-to-co-develop-main-battle-tank-with-india-ready-to-share-t-14-armata-tank-technology-12157032.html

"Russia to co-develop main battle tank with India, ready to share T-14 Armata tank technology"

More Russia-India military technology integration.  The nature of the deal seems also partly about Russia transferring technology to India in return for more funding by India for Russia's military technology development. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus243769767/Panzer-Risse-in-der-Leopard-Koalition-ploetzlich-steht-Deutschland-ziemlich-allein-da.html

Der Welt complains that now Germany is alone in the "tank coalition" as others drop out.

The West is fracturing I say as half of Russia's knock-off NATO refuses to support its invasion.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625908304676368392

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1625911579601514524
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1625913481609314304

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1625913074363269120

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-fm-must-offer-substantial-aid-to-get-meeting-with-zelensky-kyiv-official/

"Israeli FM must offer ‘substantial aid’ to get meeting with Zelensky – Kyiv official"

Pay to play?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Zelensky and Ukraine high command with a cautiously optimistic view of Bakmut today
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1625904114239516698
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1625904116789653514
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1625923032953892864

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1625912951373692929?s=20&t=A3pb_Ta0...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1625908798970798080?s=20&t=A3pb_T...