Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Moscow, awkward moments between Putin and Lukashenko...

A week before the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, met in Moscow on Friday. They mostly avoided discussion of the war — a sign of their awkward alliance, and even more awkward political relationship.

A year ago, Putin used Russian forces stationed in Belarus to launch his ultimately catastrophic attempt to conquer, Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Lukashenko, however, has resisted any pressure to deploy his own troops to Ukraine. At a news conference on Thursday in Minsk, he set expectations for his Moscow trip by announcing that Belarus would only join the war if attacked.

On Friday, Putin made clear he had gotten the message. “By the way, I watched your news conference yesterday,” he told his guest.

Lukashenko replied: “It would be better if you didn’t watch it. You would probably get upset.” Putin said it was not so. “Why? No,” he said. “I share your positions and approaches, you know.”

That exchange was not the only uncomfortable moment. At their joint appearance, Putin opened by saying: “Thank you for agreeing to come.”

Lukashenko, whose country is heavily reliant on Moscow for economic and security aid and is viewed by some as a vassal state of Russia, answered: “As if I could not agree.”

“Well, we are all busy people,” Putin said. “We have enough to do at home, I understand.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/17/putin-lukashenko-russia-belarus-ukraine/

[NOVA Green]

Putting doing some interesting footwork during his meeting with Mr. Lukashenko.

Why the camera would be focusing on Putin's feet and crotch area is beyond me....

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1626628669476114432?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Russian subs need some serious backup just to surface in case of Ukrainian drone strikes...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1625231364730527755?s=20

[NOVA Green]

For anyone who posts on this thread or whom regularly checks in and somehow believes that Russian casualties have not sky rocketed in the recent weeks, this song is dedicated to you...

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1626642954164047875?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

For anyone who posts on this thread or whom regularly checks in and somehow believes that Russian casualties have not sky rocketed in the recent weeks, this song is dedicated to you...

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1626642954164047875?s=20

But you see causalities don’t matter for Russia because they have a bigger population and the soldiers are a bunch of social undesirables or something

[Damocles]

But you see causalities don’t matter for Russia because they have a bigger population and the soldiers are a bunch of social undesirables or something

And those who manage to survive and get sent back to Russia and demobilized totally won't have resentments against the government for forcing them to fight a pointless war that got most of their friends killed, achieved nothing, and grievously injured them

[KaiserDave]

Woodbury’s insipid stupidity giving me another opening….

[KaiserDave]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

[lfromnj]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

I await the Russian surrender in 3 weeks. You could atleast change the date to during the Spring Offensive but in October 1918 it was clear Germany was on its last legs. The Spring Offensive by the Germans could be an apt comparison that mocks the idea of land gains equalling victory.

[lfromnj]

Just putting the Ukrainian perspective on Bakhmut, which is in addition to its symbolic value:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1626548035663560705

If they just ceded Bakhmut, they would still have to fight somewhere else, and right now Bakhmut is more fortified and defensible than other nearby locations. It also has a small river running through it which is an ideal place to hold off an enemy.

The original Russian goal for this area was to proceed through Bakhmut and up to Slovyansk, and then complete a pincer towards Izyum, encircling the Northern Donbas region. When they lost Izyum and Lyman, the Bakhmut offensive became operationally pointless, but in a renewed Russian offensive in Kharkiv/Luhansk would make it relevant again if they achieved gains there (such as retaking Lyman).

Anyway, the point here, really, is that if Ukraine retreats from Bakhmut, they are eventually going to be fighting in and around Chasiv Yar, then Kramatorsk, and then Slovyansk. They can't simply retreat every time Russia decides to throw wave after wave of forces at Ukraine's defensive lines. This is particularly true when Ukraine doesn't have a significant advantage which they could use to retake this land later. This war hasn't been marked by blitzkrieg-like maneuver warfare. It's been bloody attrition warfare with an occasional collapse in local forces (Kharkiv) or strategic retreat to preserve resources (Kherson). Ceding too much territory via tactical retreats might actually be bloodier for Ukraine than trying to hold it at great cost, at least in the long-term, since they are the ones trying to get their land back.

Each commander, Red Army soldier and political commissar should understand that our means are not limitless. The territory of the Soviet state is not a desert, but people – workers, peasants, intelligentsia, our fathers, mothers, wives, brothers, children. The territory of the USSR which the enemy has captured and aims to capture is bread and other products for the army, metal and fuel for industry, factories, plants supplying the army with arms and ammunition, railways. After the loss of Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic republics, Donetzk, and other areas we have much less territory, much fewer people, bread, metal, plants and factories. We have lost more than 70 million people, more than 800 million pounds of bread annually and more than 10 million tons of metal annually. Now we do not have predominance over the Germans in human reserves, in reserves of bread. To retreat further – means to waste ourselves and to waste at the same time our Motherland.

Therefore it is necessary to eliminate talk that we have the capability endlessly to retreat, that we have a lot of territory, that our country is great and rich, that there is a large population, and that bread always will be abundant. Such talk is false and parasitic, it weakens us and benefits the enemy, if we do not stop retreating we will be without bread, without fuel, without metal, without raw material, without factories and plants, without railways.

This leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back! Such should now be our main slogan.

Stalin's Order 227 or No step back.

This isn't even mocking Ukraine. Obviously some of this doesn't apply such as the factories as Ukraine doesn't have to worry too much about wartime production as the West can take care of most of that.
I do agree there probably isn't enough room to keep retreating but recent positional losses around the Bakhmut area make it a real question. Most current maps show Bakhmut enveloped on 3 sides by the Russians. This effectively acts as a force multiplier for Russian troops in the area. I don't know enough myself but at least there is the argument to defend somewhere else if Ukraine can't get take back some ground in the region.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

I await the Russian surrender in 3 weeks. You could atleast change the date to during the Spring Offensive but in October 1918 it was clear Germany was on its last legs.

Yeah, gonna post both your post and his for posterity.

[KaiserDave]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

I await the Russian surrender in 3 weeks. You could atleast change the date to during the Spring Offensive but in October 1918 it was clear Germany was on its last legs.

I could probably after all I'm not predicting any imminent Russian surrender. It's not a perfect analogy but the HOLDS ENEMY LAND argument was too stupid to ignore the obvious comparison.

[NOVA Green]

SirWoodbury YaBB God ★★★ Posts: 4,754

Re: Great War Megathread « on: October 16th, 1918, 11:33:14 pm » Instead of being a condescending weirdo, you'd realize what the intent of the post was. Amiens wasn't the result of head-on assault by the Allies or an offensive, it was a withdrawal due to strains of manpower/logistics due to blockade, and mobilization transfer of divisions from the east was not yet completed. Manpower shortages is non-existent for the Germans now, they have guys to man fortifications and trenches, no need to support an Eastern Front, etc. Which is why it's going to be next to impossible for the allies to advance as there is no vulnerable spots left to attack. But the point is after Brest-Litovsk the Allies has literally made no gains or advances with the exception of the Amiens withdrawal. From here on out it's going to be that way. So yeah, Germany is winning. As long as they get more land than they started with (their frontlines are literally closer to Paris than they are to Germany), they're pretty much the winner.

I await the Russian surrender in 3 weeks. You could atleast change the date to during the Spring Offensive but in October 1918 it was clear Germany was on its last legs. The Spring Offensive by the Germans could be an apt comparison that mocks the idea of land gains equalling victory.

Pretty clear we need another Atlas Diplomacy game if anybody is willing to host as GM...

Muon2 hosted the past couple, but took a pass last time I checked bcs of personal commitments plus also was hosting the Atlas Chess Tournament.

I digress slightly, but all of this talk of WW I and International Diplomacy and all that really is starting to make me jonesing for another Atlas Diplomacy Game, which might well be up the ally of many of the more regular posters on this thread...

Off Topic, but an honest and genuine thought and no trolling involved towards ANY posters on this thread.

To make it official will need to post on the Atlas Games thread, but still without a GM what do we have?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1626665664172773376?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/17/zelenskiy-urges-west-speed-up-arms-support-ukraine-russia-offensive

"Zelenskiy urges west to speed up arms support to head off Russia offensive
Ukraine president tells world leaders in Munich to ‘hurry up’ before Putin gains military advantage"

Wait, if the Russians are taking the losses the Ukrainians are talking about then Russia will grow weaker as time goes on and not stronger so why is Zelensky talking about Putin gaining the military advantage in the future?

[jaichind]

https://orf.at/stories/3305680/

Ben Wallace tells Der Spiegel that Modern jets like the Eurofighter could only be delivered to Ukraine after the war because pilot training takes a long time which is what I have been saying about fighters and even tanks delivery to Ukraine.  Namely cost of training, logistics, repair, supply chain etc etc are going to be a problem and will take a long time to sort out.

[jaichind]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-china/news/china-plans-to-present-proposal-for-ukraine-russia-peace-talks/

"China plans to present proposal for Ukraine-Russia peace talks"

It seems the proposal would "respect “the sovereignty of all countries” as per PRC

I suspect it would be similar to a plan I would propose:

a) 4 Russian annexed regions to become 4 independent Republics and enter into a confederation with the rest of Ukraine.
b) New reorganized Ukraine confederation promises not to enter into any alliances and would constitutionally be neutral

Which is basically Minsk 3.

I am pretty sure both Russia and Ukraine will reject such terms.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, Ukraine will always ask for more from the West. Of course they will.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/17/zelenskiy-urges-west-speed-up-arms-support-ukraine-russia-offensive

"Zelenskiy urges west to speed up arms support to head off Russia offensive
Ukraine president tells world leaders in Munich to ‘hurry up’ before Putin gains military advantage"

Wait, if the Russians are taking the losses the Ukrainians are talking about then Russia will grow weaker as time goes on and not stronger so why is Zelensky talking about Putin gaining the military advantage in the future?

I guess it is a mix of 1. Ukraine is also taking huge losses and 2. he will do what has has to do to get more Western aid.
Better safe than sorry and all...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something that struck me just now...all these modern things Ukraine is getting...can it afford to have them? Ukraine's a dirt-poor place and the state might not have the money to able to maintain all this while also reconstructing in the wake of the devestation that Ukraine has gotten...

[Torrain]

This is a little petty, but screw it. Just want to remind all that this time last year, Edward Snowden was telling us that it was simply offensive to even suggest Russia would even consider invading Ukraine, and the media were the real villain:

[Dereich]

There were a lot of bad takes in the runup to the war, plenty of them can in this very thread. It really is remarkable how good US intelligence has been on Russia and its intentions.

Speaking of that, the one year anniversary of the war comes next week. Putin has his State of the Nation speech set for the 21st and I'd have to assume the war would be the big topic. What positive message could he plausibly make to the Russian people? Russia hasn't captured any cities of note since Lysychansk all the way back in July. I assume that the recent attacks on Vuhledar and intensification of the Bakhmut attacks (which appears to be the long awaited Russian offense) were to give him SOMETHING positive to point to, but with no results so far. Perhaps one of the reasons for the Ukrainians to keep Bakhmut is to deny the enemy any kind of success for their anniversary "celebrations"? I struggle to think of any way Putin will be able to argue that the war going forward will be quick, cheap, or painless. Even Russians won't accept minimal gains for endless casualties with no end in sight.

[Woody]

Berkhivka/Yahidne is the only domino left from having the final supply road to Bakhmut under fire control. In that case AFU withdrawal from the city becomes significantly more dangerous/forces stationed inside Bakhmut become under semi-encirclement.

Ukrainian higher command probably want to hold the city at all costs before Feb. 24 due to the 1. year anniversary coming up & negate any bad PR with a major city falling. Bakhmut at this stage is not a tactical advantage for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627000766648000514
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627001002812473351

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RobLute4/status/1626943468290334720

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Berkhivka/Yahidne is the only domino left from having the final supply road to Bakhmut under fire control. In that case AFU withdrawal from the city becomes significantly more dangerous/forces stationed inside Bakhmut become under semi-encirclement.

Ukrainian higher command probably want to hold the city at all costs before Feb. 24 due to the 1. year anniversary coming up & negate any bad PR with a major city falling.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627000766648000514
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1627001002812473351

I can see Ukraine's leadership caring about the symbolic value of preventing a fall of Bakhmut at least before the anniversary of the war.
At the same time, as Dereich pointed out, Russia will probably want to have Bakhmut in their hands by then.
Personally, if I had to guess, I doubt either thing will happen in such a time frame, given how entrenched both sides are here.