Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/02/09/eu-plans-to-fund-ukraine-by-investing-frozen-russian-assets-is-creative-but-legally-dodgy

"EU plans to fund Ukraine by investing frozen Russian assets is 'creative but legally dodgy"

The latest idea is to invest frozen Russian assets to generate revenue to give to Ukraine since the legal hurdles to just take the money is higher

Of course the first step would be to find out exactly what is the nature of these assets since right now various collective Western banks have frozen the Russian assets but did not disclose the size and nature of those assets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/eu-urged-to-make-banks-report-size-of-frozen-russian-assets

"EU Urged to Make Banks Report Size of Frozen Russian Assets"

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's been a while since the last Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Have they finally run short of missiles or is there another change in strategy?

Looks like another wave of missile attacks today.

My guess on the Russian strategy is that they are waging this war as an indefinite war.  So they are going not to focus on short-term results.  The best ROI on missile attacks would be to attack infrastructure, wait for it to get mostly repaired, and then attack again.  This way Russia learns more about Ukraine's ability to repair as well as maximize the number of resources destroyed per attack. This, of course, could reflect Russia running lower on missiles or more likely both which is about my maximize ROI argument of resources economization coupled with damage maximization per attack.

if you're right, why did/do they waste so many missiles on apartment buildings?  Is it because Russians are bad at doing military stuff or is it because Russians are just bad people.

I think if and when that were to place I would say the short answer would be an issue of competence.  My comment was about the likely Russian strategy and not an endorsement of their ability to carry it out.

I think it’s a 1/2 punch attempt at trying to break the Ukrainian people’s will to fight and subscribing to the Sherman March to the Sea philosophy of an army is supported by the local civilian infrastructure so take it out and you f up the military. But the problem is that it’s been proven time and time again that attacking civilian infrastructure hardens public resolve not break it and the Confederacy didn’t have the foreign support Ukraine does

[jaichind]

I think it’s a 1/2 punch attempt at trying to break the Ukrainian people’s will to fight and subscribing to the Sherman March to the Sea philosophy of an army is supported by the local civilian infrastructure so take it out and you f up the military. But the problem is that it’s been proven time and time again that attacking civilian infrastructure hardens public resolve not break it and the Confederacy didn’t have the foreign support Ukraine does

I guess I am making an argument that the Russian strategy is NOT "terror bombing".  The reasons are the scale of their attacks is to few to even come close to doing that.  Also such tactics to create hardship tends to consolidate the regime (much like the collective Western sanctions on Russia).  What I am arguing is that Russia is trying to maximize the material damage to Ukraine for the minimal level of investment.  It is not meant to demoralize (which would be "terror bombing" approach)  but to bankrupt.

[dead0man]

I think if and when that were to place I would say the short answer would be an issue of competence. 

you think they're hitting them on accident...as often as they are?

[jaichind]

I think if and when that were to place I would say the short answer would be an issue of competence. 

you think they're hitting them on accident...as often as they are?

I have no clue how often it takes place but I am sure it must take place in some cases.  Some I am sure are accidents.  Oleksiy Arestovych had to resign a few weeks ago when he pointed out that in one such incident it was a debris from a Russian missile after it was struck in the sky by Ukrainian air defenses.  I am not saying he is right but that he would say that would make it plausible that such a scenario would explain some of the other cases. 

But still the short answer from me would still be "this is an issue of competence and not strategy"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1624047902246010881
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1624049037308559366

[Torie]

I think it’s a 1/2 punch attempt at trying to break the Ukrainian people’s will to fight and subscribing to the Sherman March to the Sea philosophy of an army is supported by the local civilian infrastructure so take it out and you f up the military. But the problem is that it’s been proven time and time again that attacking civilian infrastructure hardens public resolve not break it and the Confederacy didn’t have the foreign support Ukraine does

I guess I am making an argument that the Russian strategy is NOT "terror bombing".  The reasons are the scale of their attacks is to few to even come close to doing that.  Also such tactics to create hardship tends to consolidate the regime (much like the collective Western sanctions on Russia).  What I am arguing is that Russia is trying to maximize the material damage to Ukraine for the minimal level of investment.  It is not meant to demoralize (which would be "terror bombing" approach)  but to bankrupt.

You the ROI guy know better than that J. While Russia may go BK in due time if the West keeps focused, Ukraine with the US and EU bank accounts behind it, is never going BK. Aside from the possibility that Putin is a pathological sadist, the raison d'etre is to ethnically cleanse. Putin wants Ukraine without the Ukrainians.

[BG-NY]

I have been reading some of the debate on Twitter about this being “Ukraine’s Defense” vs “The West’s Proxy War”, seems pretty heated on both sides:

• Many advocates for Ukraine showing anger that what they perceive to be very little in terms of weapon and aid have actually been donated
• Some (not all) proponents of Ukraine are offended at the thought that this war would be over and/or Ukraine would not exist without NATO aid and weapons
• There is an overwhelming propensity to attack the pride of Ukraine given Zelenskyy’ tours, calling him and Ukraine the beggars of Europe
• A belief that there is a lack of appreciation from Ukraine for the weapons and aid that have been provided by NATO

Have not been following this all that closely but I will say, it’s inappropriate to pressure Ukraine to enter a peace deal in which it will cede territory. If someone wants to cut off weapons and aid, that’s one thing, but the West doesn’t get to control how long a country can right for, that is very much imperialistic.

[jaichind]

You the ROI guy know better than that J. While Russia may go BK in due time if the West keeps focused, Ukraine with the US and EU bank accounts behind it, is never going BK. Aside from the possibility that Putin is a pathological sadist, the raison d'etre is to ethnically cleanse. Putin wants Ukraine without the Ukrainians.

If Russia wants to reduce Ukraine's GDP in the medium run at the lowest possible cost I cannot think of anything better than throwing a bunch of missiles at the energy grid for urban centers, waiting days for Ukraine to repair it, and then doing it again.  By making power not reliable you reduce investment in future economic activity and drive the population out of urban areas where the density of the population tend to create more economic wealth.

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/can-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-donbas-chemical-weapons-win/

After reading this, I was wondering if there is any evidence in recent weeks that Russia's command and control and coordination has improved.

It does seem as if both sides knew Putin would make his big move at this time, and thus the throwing of more assets on the table at an accelerated rate, with Putin wanting to beat NATO and the new tanks and other weapons to the punch.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-two-russian-missiles-crossed-into-romania-moldova-2023-02-10/

"Ukraine says two Russian missiles crossed into Romania and Moldova"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/10/romania-denies-russian-missiles-crossed-country

"Romania counters Ukraine’s claim over straying Russian missiles"

Given the missile came from the Black See I am more likely to believe Ukraine.  But I guess Romania rather not risk some esalation with Russia and is just denying it.

[Storr]

I'm a sucker for interesting photography:

https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1623652302404870153?s=20&t=poNLRj9pz...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/OlyaOliker/status/1624086027202691073?s=20&t=poNLRj9pzOV...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1623939831091920897?s=20&t=poNLRj9pzOVX...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1624076903870087168?s=20&t=poNLRj9p...

[President Johnson]

Some might regard it as too hawkish, but after the latest round of air bombings, NATO maybe should consider airstrikes to destroy these Russian bases that are used to launch the attacks. Or get Ukraine weaponery to do so very quickly.

[Storr]

The nerd in me immediately noticed the abandoned Soviet-era dragline excavator (presumably used for surface coal mining since this is the Donbass) next to the destroyed Russian armoured vehicles:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1624106002944491521?s=20&t=s7phEMMah3si...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1624147030703542291
Something seems to be going on in Kreminna as several accounts like this are saying Ukraine is counterattacking in the area already

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624088163512725516?s=20&t=zULiuIB4...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624186392128503809?s=20&t=zULiuIB4...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like something I have suspected for a bit has been officially confirmed (more or less) from a WaPo exclusive:

Ukrainian officials said they require coordinates provided or confirmed by the United States and its allies for the vast majority of strikes using its advanced U.S.-provided rocket systems, a previously undisclosed practice that reveals a deeper and more operationally active role for the Pentagon in the war.

The disclosure, confirmed by three senior Ukrainian officials and a senior U.S. official, comes after months of Kyiv’s forces pounding Russian targets — including headquarters, ammunition depots and barracks — on Ukrainian soil with the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and other similar precision-guided weapons such as the M270 multiple-launch rocket system.

One senior Ukrainian official said Ukrainian forces almost never launch the advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel from a base elsewhere in Europe. Ukrainian officials say this process should give Washington confidence about providing Kyiv with longer-range weapons.

A senior U.S. official — who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue — acknowledged the key American role in the campaign and said the targeting assistance served to ensure accuracy and conserve limited stores of ammunition for maximum effectiveness. The official said Ukraine does not seek approval from the United States on what to strike and routinely targets Russian forces on their own with other weapons. The United States provides coordinates and precise targeting information solely in an advisory role, the official said.

The senior Ukrainian official described the targeting process, generally: Ukrainian military personnel identify targets they want to hit, and in which location, and that information is then sent up to senior commanders, who then relay the request to U.S. partners for more accurate coordinates. The Americans do not always provide the requested coordinates, the official said, in which case the Ukrainian troops do not fire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1624256223850758145
Definitely feels like there alot of momentum building to giving western made jets without the push back tanks got

[dead0man]

we (the West) should give them (Ukraine) whatever they need to make the Russians stop murdering their people.  It should start with state of the art missile defense systems.  It should continue with tanks, fighter jets and missiles.  If that doesn't do the trick, a whole hell of lot more missiles and jets will.  To do anything less (ya know, as we've been doing) is cowardly.  We spend a kazillion dollars a year on the military, if we're not going to use it to kill bad guys, we should give it to our friends who are currently fighting bad guys.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-prepared-to-use-british-missiles-to-strike-crimea-d73rlk23p

"Ukraine prepared to use British missiles to strike Crimea"

Very logical from Ukraine's point of view.  The way out for Ukraine is to strike deep into Russia and take the war to ordinary Russians to try to show up Putin as a weak leader in the minds of the Russian population.

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11738951/Dramatic-moment-Russian-drone-boat-packed-explosives-smashes-key-Ukrainian-bridge.html

"Dramatic moment Russian drone boat packed with explosives smashes key Ukrainian bridge as Putin unleashes new war weapon that Moscow hopes will turn tide of war"

Russia uses an underwater drone for the first time in an attack on a key Ukrainian bridge connecting to Moldova.  This seems to be the result

[Woody]

NYT talks about potential offensive in new fronts - Sumy & Kharkiv (Which is unlikely, the latter possibly imo). Russians recently stationed around 2 divisions to Kharkiv's borders (elements of 2nd Guards Motorized and 4th Guards Tank Division - but still likely they will go for Luhansk & Donetsk

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1624175485948133377

[Woody]

Why the push towards south isn't as easy as people think - map of post-Feb. 24 fortifications:

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1624134859643047936?cxt=HHwWgMDShZiDi4otAAAA