Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Big if true.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1530851569847115776?s=20&t=JHzMSb...

Here's Ukrainian video of burnt out vehicles along the highway. So, there has been some visual evidence of the road being "open" to traffic (watch out for incoming Russian artillery fire, though).

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1530620936629719044?s=20&t=JHzMSb7...

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1530886503760646144

Yes, this is definitely the 21st century version of the battle of the Kursk salient.  That was the last battle the Wehrmacht held the initiative on the eastern front before it departed forever after to the Red Army. 

[Storr]

From a reporter in the Donbass:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1530965244394209282?s=20&t=JHzMSb7SUn7...

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1530966790578352129?s=20&t=JHzMSb7SUn7...

[Storr]

More old Russian tanks arriving in Melitopol. The tank closest to the photographer is a T-72B (obr. 1985), while the next two tanks appear to be T-72B obr. 1989 variants. As you can tell by their designations, the former was first built in 1985, while the latter was introduced in 1989.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1530968307058323456?s=20&t=JHzMSb7SUn...

A very helpful guide to identifying Russian tanks I found at the beginning of the invasion:

http://blog.vantagepointnorth.net/2021/12/quick-guide-to-identifying-russian.html?m=1

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828710953336834?s=20&t=1p0t1L...

Interesting thread. Essentially the conditions of the Russian breakthrough earlier in the month are such that a modern army should have been able to mount at least small encirclements and spearheads. But we have instead seen consistent favoring of slow and heavy artillery - and the tactics that benefit from their use - rather than a mobile encirclement and advance, leading to a stalled breakthrough. Now, there appears to be a reason for said situation.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828721522987008?s=20&t=1p0t1L...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828725822136320?s=20&t=1p0t1L...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828729219436544?s=20&t=1p0t1L...

[Storr]

Russians in the eastern edge of Severodonetsk:

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1530988900746928129?s=20&t=JHzMSb7SUn7mk...

Matches up with this Ukrainian General Staff claim about Russians "trying to keep" positions in NE Severodonetsk. It also looks like the "major" offensive in Kherson Oblast turned out to be pretty limited:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1530985895951798273?s=20&t=JHzMSb...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1531010197031878661
For comparison the Russian offensive in the Donbas move about 1-2km per day

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, tl;dr there are a lot of competing narratives of what's happening around Severodonetsk today, but whatever it is isn't happening very fast?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828710953336834?s=20&t=1p0t1L...
Interesting thread. Essentially the conditions of the Russian breakthrough earlier in the month are such that a modern army should have been able to mount at least small encirclements and spearheads. But we have instead seen consistent favoring of slow and heavy artillery - and the tactics that benefit from their use - rather than a mobile encirclement and advance, leading to a stalled breakthrough. Now, there appears to be a reason for said situation.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828721522987008?s=20&t=1p0t1L...
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828725822136320?s=20&t=1p0t1L...
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1530828729219436544?s=20&t=1p0t1L...

While it is true that (in theory) Russia should have enough vehicles to replace its losses, there’s another explanation for their losses slowing down which doesn’t require Ukrainian claims to be true: dead crews. In the short term, it doesn’t matter that you have a gajillion tanks if half the crews you trained are dead.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1531030010244608003?s=20&t=dwt3WPpv...

Reaching the T0403 bridge at Novokairy would cut off any Russian forces left north of it:

https://twitter.com/albir2024/status/1530952790406725633?s=20&t=dwt3WPpvMymN...

[DINGO Joe]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

The last of them were officially retired a few years ago, and even the “‘modernised” ones are probably going to fare worse than the technically older T-72s and T-80s seen over the last couple of days (which have newer, more survivable designs).

Michael Kaufman, who’s been one of the more credible analysts in this conflict, has argued they could have been taken out before some of the other tanks to be used by reservists who’d trained with them.

[The Mikado]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

All that is true, but most people seem to think those are going to be going into garrison duty in areas the Russians are already occupying so the T-72 and betters that are currently doing that can be relieved to go to the front lines. A T-64 sitting around occupying Berdyansk or Melitopol will presumably not be using that much ammo but still be a plausible enough threat to keep the locals from getting any ideas.

[Storr]

Instead of sending tanks to Ukraine Scholz is posting this:

https://twitter.com/GermanyNATO/status/1530166800490680320?s=20&t=yPngl6RQgx...

But like, if you shoot back isn’t that just as bad?

I guess so.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1531003020644868098?s=20&t=dwt3WPpv...

[DINGO Joe]

Re:  Replacing  Russian tanks.  Well, if they're breaking out the T-62s.  It's a 4 man crew (rather than 3)  different ammo, and really a whole different supply chain as you need different parts to keep those going.

The last of them were officially retired a few years ago, and even the “‘modernised” ones are probably going to fare worse than the technically older T-72s and T-80s seen over the last couple of days (which have newer, more survivable designs).

Michael Kaufman, who’s been one of the more credible analysts in this conflict, has argued they could have been taken out before some of the other tanks to be used by reservists who’d trained with them.

Well, if those reservists go to Ukraine, then that's what they'll have to drive. 

[DINGO Joe]

Your war voyeur video of the day

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1530937588206272512

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

As for pre-Feb 24th territory, all I'll say is that Crimea always has been a logistical nightmare to invade by land from the north. You have to push through and absolutely tiny chokepoint. Your forces are exposed to naval bombardment on all sides. It's just really, really difficult.

THAT SAID, pre-Feb-24th Donetsk and Luhansk are a massively different story if (big if) we ever get to the point where Russian lines break. There's basically no terrain defense there, just a bunch of geographically large old industrial towns that are now down to like a third of their original population tops.

An 800k person city like Donetsk was is hard to take. A city designed for 800k with <250k living in it like Donetsk is now? That's a bit of a different story. Giant expanse of deserted hollowed out emptiness.

Luhansk and Donetsk sounds like a Ukrainian West Virginia or Detroit. A dying industrial area with hollowed out abandoned buildings.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As for pre-Feb 24th territory, all I'll say is that Crimea always has been a logistical nightmare to invade by land from the north. You have to push through and absolutely tiny chokepoint. Your forces are exposed to naval bombardment on all sides. It's just really, really difficult.

THAT SAID, pre-Feb-24th Donetsk and Luhansk are a massively different story if (big if) we ever get to the point where Russian lines break. There's basically no terrain defense there, just a bunch of geographically large old industrial towns that are now down to like a third of their original population tops.

An 800k person city like Donetsk was is hard to take. A city designed for 800k with <250k living in it like Donetsk is now? That's a bit of a different story. Giant expanse of deserted hollowed out emptiness.

Luhansk and Donetsk sounds like a Ukrainian West Virginia or Detroit. A dying industrial area with hollowed out abandoned buildings.

Not a bad comparison. Youngstown might be an even better comparison, or Saint Louis.
Is it fair to say Ukraine's economy was quite possibly the worst hit, long-term, by the break-up of the Soviet Union? It certainly had a substantial industrial base, one that probably didn't fare too well in the economic shifts post-1991.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Instead of sending tanks to Ukraine Scholz is posting this:

https://twitter.com/GermanyNATO/status/1530166800490680320?s=20&t=yPngl6RQgx...

But like, if you shoot back isn’t that just as bad?

I guess so.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1531003020644868098?s=20&t=dwt3WPpv...

I'm not really that much of a fan of Olaf Scholz' Chancellorship - both in Ukraine and elsewhere - but seven self-propelled howitzers (Panzerhaubitze 2000) and 50 anti-aircraft tanks (Gepard) don't actually fulfill my definition of "nothing".

It's true that the aforementioned vehicles are as of today still not in use by the Ukrainian army. This is a largely a result of two factors: 1) Ukrainian military personnel is currently undergoing training in Germany to learn how to operate the Panzerhaubitze 2000 and the Gepard. 2) The Gepard is using Swiss-produced ammuntion which Switzerland refuses to export for the purposes of use in Ukraine. This required additional efforts to scratch it together from alternative sources, namely the militaries of Brazil and Qatar. (The same problem would also apply to other types of German tanks btw).

The obstacles summarized in the previous paragraph led to German offers to the Czech Republic and Slovenia to supply them with German tanks if they in turn supply Ukraine with tanks of Soviet/Russian production. It is for the same reason why Poland is by far Ukraine's main supplier with heavy weaponry and not the US, the UK, or France, for instance....

It's not like you can just give Ukraine some tanks, irrespective of type and origin, and they're good to go. The real world is still a little more complex than that.

[Woody]

Russian forces moving deeper into Sivierodonetsk - Luhansk governor (Serhiy Haidai)

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-forces-moving-deeper-into-sivierodonetsk-luhansk-governor-2022-05-30/

"Unfortunately we have disappointing news, the enemy is moving into the city," Gaidai told national television.

He said the neighbouring city of Lysychansk was still under Ukrainian control, while the main road into the two cities has been shelled, but not blocked.

Like they have done throughout this offensive, Russians are just massively pounding one by one through these cities for hours non-stop. Artillery is king here.

From what I can gather fighting is going on near the center of the city now.

[Woody]

Why the frontlines needs it's weapons ASAP.. not only for fighting Russians, but for morale too:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531217550360596481

[Woody]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

[Middle-aged Europe]

That took three months of negotiation between the Scholz government and the CDU/CSU because since it would be a violation of the constitution's balanced budget provision you'll need a two-third majority to actually pass it.


https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1531116941594591232

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1531211767124217856

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden makes a weird statement on MLRS systems:

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1531267316117389315
Because Ukraine now controls territory bordering Russia, they can reach parts it with any MLRS system (along with every other kind of munition). He probably meant that the systems won't reach far into Russia, but no MLRS is even capable of reaching Moscow from Ukraine. If this isn't just another Biden gaffe, the thinking of whoever is in charge of aid to Ukraine might be a bit confused.

He could have been referring to ballistic/cruise missiles as "rockets", but the more likely explanation is that he was indicating that the US will send shorter-ranged systems in the event that they send any at all. Apart from a system called ATACMS and another one that is currently under testing in the US, none of the eligible systems outrange Russian or Ukrainian MLRS, but we're likely to see another one of those unhelpful diagrams that we saw when the first howitzers were delivered. To complicate matters, ATACMS has several variants of its own with different ranges, some of which might be ruled out and others still under consideration.

The most modern kind of ATACMS has a considerably shorter range than the system under testing, but does outrange all MLRS currently being used and can reach Crimea from Ukrainian-held territory (although I'm not sure how effective it'd be at close to its maximum range).