Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

I don't see Russia Putin giving up the real estate it has gained in this current episode of the war, so I don't think what Kissinger wants is going to happen.

If the NYT is right, things will be winding down soon into stalemate. How long Putin is willing to continue with Russia's economy being torn to shreds, as the price of holding it, then becomes the issue. That's my uneducated take anyway.

From the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html

“Without enlisting more troops, there is only so long that Russia can continue to push forward. The farther that Russian troops push, the longer their supply lines become and the more exposed they are to Ukrainian counterattacks, so Russia has to reposition troops to defend territory it has already won.

‘Russia has a limited window to reestablish momentum and make significant advances. After that, it may be forced into more defensive positions, and the war could drift into a stalemate. With troops and equipment dwindling, the battle for the Donbas is likely to be the last major offensive of the war.

‘Russia has a limited window to reestablish momentum and make significant advances. After that, it may be forced into more defensive positions, and the war could drift into a stalemate. With troops and equipment dwindling, the battle for the Donbas is likely to be the last major offensive of the war.”

[Storr]

War criminal gives his thoughts on the current conflict:

[tweet thread snip]

This sums up my thoughts:

https://twitter.com/War_Takes/status/1529091021375774720?s=20&t=DGSpZE2LXcyg...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

War criminal gives his thoughts on the current conflict:

https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1529043075355615233?s=20&t=kJsPcXH...
https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1529043085132447744?s=20&t=kJsPcXH...

This "proper place" talk really demonstrates how rigid and backward certain foreign policy thinking has become. Countries do not have static populations and "spheres of influence" and it is not inherently sensible to pretend they do; likewise, concerns about Russia becoming embarrassed after losses miss the fact that the horse has already bolted there.

There is a case for encouraging Ukraine to return to the territorial status quo ante (not one I agree with, but it's there), but it should be clear Russia will not accept this scenario unless it knows Ukraine will soon have the capacity to push beyond.

The internet might be about to witness some absolutely hilarious praise of Kissinger from "socialists".

[Storr]

"Botashev commanded a regiment of the Guards Air Base in Voronezh. His military career was cut short in June 2012 when he was accused of crashing a Su-27 fighter near Petrozavodsk..."

"How the 63-year-old retired general ended up piloting a Su-25 in Ukraine is unclear. Former subordinates of Botashev suggested that he "simply could not stay away."

Since the beginning of March, Russian military registration and enlistment offices, patriotic organizations and PMC Wagner have been actively campaigning to attract people to be sent to Ukraine. According to open sources, the BBC found that at least nine retired Russian soldiers over 50 years old died in Ukraine. One of them, retired airborne major Valery Statilko, like Botashev, was over 60."

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1529082846140370950?s=20&t=kJsPcXHw...

[😥]

War criminal gives his thoughts on the current conflict:

Skip

It would be better if this stupid Russian agent was silent and we could forget about his existence. I invite him to come to Ukraine in person and say about "Ukraine's need to cede territory" to the mother of 2-year-old twins who were raped by Russian soldiers and died as a result.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Something went seriously wrong with the simulation to have Kissinger and Chomsky in agreement on something

[OSR stands with Israel]

Amazing how much Kissinger has also destroyed his legacy

[Person Man]

Amazing how much Kissinger has also destroyed his legacy

There was no "legacy" that he is creating or destroying. This is Kissinger being Kissinger even when he is 99 years old.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Amazing how much Kissinger has also destroyed his legacy

There was no "legacy" that he is creating or destroying. This is Kissinger being Kissinger even when he is 99 years old.

Nixon was a fantastic president on FP so yah that was part of his legacy

[Storr]

Incredible choice of music:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1529003245296922627?s=20&t=Vm5r-P8hBy99...

[Person Man]

Incredible choice of music:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1529003245296922627?s=20&t=Vm5r-P8hBy99...

That was like a CoD Kill Cam.

[Storr]

This change will be critical for Ukraine if Black Sea ports continue to be blockaded, which appears likely. Though more expensive and unable to fully match the tonnage Ukraine usually ships by sea, shipping grain by train (most likely to Polish Baltic Sea ports) is best option available.

Having one uniform track gauge will significantly save time, all other options take hours. From a wikipedia article about a Polish variable gauge system, the SUW 2000: "For a 32-wagon goods train it takes about 12 hours to cross the break of gauge using the bogie exchange facility. A transshipment involving unloading goods from one train and loading them onto another takes about 22 hours. If SUW 2000 II was deployed, the time taken for the crossing would be reduced to 4 hours."

It's easier to change a railroad from a wider track gauge to a smaller track gauge. This is because the narrower gauge uses locomotives and rolling stock which will fit in tunnels, bridges, stations, and other infrastructure of the wider gauged railway. That's why Ukraine is shifting gauge, instead of its western neighbors.

"Ukrzaliznytsia's operational director Vyacheslav Eremin noted that changing the track is "expensive, long and difficult, but necessary." According to him, the following stages are considered: Lviv-Kyiv, Lviv-Odesa, Lviv-Kryvyi Rih."


https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1529128834016202754?s=20&t=DGSpZE...

[DaleCooper]

Something went seriously wrong with the simulation to have Kissinger and Chomsky in agreement on something

I wasn't surprised by Chomsky's position on this at all. In fact, I'd have been pretty shocked if he wasn't being an apologist for Russia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something went seriously wrong with the simulation to have Kissinger and Chomsky in agreement on something

Meanwhile all of Pope Francis, the Taliban and the Satanic Temple are all on the same side in condemning Russia.

[Storr]

This change will be critical for Ukraine if Black Sea ports continue to be blockaded, which appears likely. Though more expensive and unable to fully match the tonnage Ukraine usually ships by sea, shipping grain by train (most likely to Polish Baltic Sea ports) is best option available.

Having one uniform track gauge will significantly save time, all other options take hours. From a wikipedia article about a Polish variable gauge system, the SUW 2000: "For a 32-wagon goods train it takes about 12 hours to cross the break of gauge using the bogie exchange facility. A transshipment involving unloading goods from one train and loading them onto another takes about 22 hours. If SUW 2000 II was deployed, the time taken for the crossing would be reduced to 4 hours."

It's easier to change a railroad from a wider track gauge to a smaller track gauge. This is because the narrower gauge uses locomotives and rolling stock which will fit in tunnels, bridges, stations, and other infrastructure of the wider gauged railway. That's why Ukraine is shifting gauge, instead of its western neighbors.

"Ukrzaliznytsia's operational director Vyacheslav Eremin noted that changing the track is "expensive, long and difficult, but necessary." According to him, the following stages are considered: Lviv-Kyiv, Lviv-Odesa, Lviv-Kryvyi Rih."


https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1529128834016202754?s=20&t=DGSpZE...

I doubt they are planning to switch completely from 1520mm to 1435mm, since literally all of their current equipment is for 1520mm. This interesting four track arrangement is probably what Ukrainian Railways will pursue, as seen in Lithuania:



source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_gauge#/media/File:Rail_Baltica_Lietuva.jpg

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529013754658181120?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529062437416321026?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

[Woody]

According to Hauer, Russians are going beyond the Svetlodarsk towards Bakhmut direction as it's undermanned. Russians seems to be trying to consolidate the Popasna salient, and threaten Bakhmut (Although most likely not assaulting it in the near time, expect increased shelling here)

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1529071054722826240

[pppolitics]

What is this?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529167961369591808

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is this?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529167961369591808

Their COVID emergency powers were about to expire.

[Storr]

What is this?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529167961369591808

"Never let a good crisis go to waste." - Winston Churchill

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1529167075322781697

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1529167075322781697

I agree. It is ridiculous to think that the west should encourage the Ukrainians to sue for peace or cede territory. All that will do is give Putin (or his replacement) an even bigger launching off point for the next war (and there will be a next one if Putin keeps his current gains). Part of the reason why I think Ukraine should try and regain Crimea when the time is right (even if it would end up being a troublesome province) has to do with the fact that pre-February 24, Ukraine was surrounded by hostile powers on three sides. If the Ukrainians retake Crimea, then they only have hostile powers on two sides (Russia/Belarus).

[Middle-aged Europe]

I saw a German editorial recently in which the New York Times was compared to maverick Left Party politician and Putin apologist Sahra Wagenknecht.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529013754658181120?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

https://twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1529062437416321026?s=20&t=CHxZbuWW...

Wait, is this implying that Severodonetsk is encircled? Current frontline maps still show a substantial (but shrinking) opening. If that's no longer the case, it's deeply worrying news.

[Storr]

Why Russia has shied away from mass mobilization:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1529209009588281349?s=20&t=NaKDaw9...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1529209209358897154?s=20&t=NaKDaw9...
https://twitter.com/semanthos/status/1529213263120060416?s=20&t=NaKDaw9YQ7yA...