🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/btw21/

Also this site has some fascinating data if you are able to read German. You can click on the right-hand drop-down box to highlight the districts in Germany and see results by first and second votes, the parties, and the 2017 results compared against Hartz IV recipients, unemployment rate, household income, childcare, transient residents, and elderly/youth share.

For example, strongest party on the second vote in the districts with the highest share of low-income households in 2017:


Versus the same in 2021:

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The AfD parliamentary group shrinks from 83 to 82 MPs, as one of the freshmen is considered too right-wing and thus not becoming member of the group. He might get guest status though, which would avail him to participate in group conferences.

Too rightwing ? How so?

And what's the reason they'd want him participating in group conferences but not as a member of the group?

Matthias Helferich is his name. He called himself the "friendly face of national socialism" on his facebook page back in 2013. He insisted that this was an ironic statement, quoting criticism from the left against him. Still, not a good look. He was elected on the party list before the posting was discovered.

If Die Linke hadn't gotten that third mandate seat, how would that have affected the results if they lost an additional 37 seats? Obviously every other party would have gained, but would there have been a SPD-Grune majority, or even close to one?

No, because the vote share of Union+FDP+AfD > SPD+Greens.

[President Johnson]

If the FDP does indeed torpedo Traffic Light, bit the Greens refuse Jamaica, could we then get Afghanistan if the CDU sees another opportunity to be in power? It might be overkill given the size of said coalition

Doubtful, though ironically a politicial scientist (forgot his name) that was interviewed by my local radio station on Tuesday predicted exactly that: Greens and FDP can't resolve their differences in economic and tax policy and ultimately there will be a grand coalition with the Greens in addition. That coalition would also have a large majority in the Bundesrat.

However, I don't see it. Greens and FDP want to govern after years in opposition and the Union is in disarray. And Söder's most recent behavior clearly indicates that he has no desire for a weak chancellor Laschet. He wants to win the Bavarian state election in 2023 and thinks that's easier with Olaf Scholz as chancellor. He may also intend to be chancellor candidate in 2025.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Also sorry for spamming today, but how durable are the FDP's gains in the youth vote?

As we can see from the 2017 election, they were third amongst younger voters:


So that does indicate a rising trend amongst the young 'uns, but in 2021 they surged to second place:


I don't doubt that they are now the choice of many young right-leaning people, but could we say that the FDP's soft skepticism towards lockdowns gave them an extra boost amongst the young and first-time voters as well? Or do we really see them keeping their 20%+ going forward?

Unfortunately Infratest dimap didn't ask questions about lockdown and COVID-19 restrictions, and I can't find any other exit polls like they have :/

[mileslunn]

What are the main differences in terms of refugee policy for the traffick light coalition?

I assume the overall difference between traffic light and grand coalition would probably be marginal in the grand scheme of things and refugees weren't really much of a priority these two past years anyway... except recently with Afghanistan although in that case there was a consensus to get former German employees out and to suspend deportations to the country, a consensus where really only the AfD excluded itself.

I would assume that the Greens will push for more open refugee policies, the FDP would largely serve as a stand-in for the CDU/CSU, and the SPD would argue to stay the course (although the fact that the new SPD caucus has now a higher proportion of Jusos who are probably more pro-refugee could move things a bit here). The net result would be as mentioned above: no major changes. Then again, I can't really see refugees as an issue that could derail the Traffic light talks in any major way.

When it comes to the larger issue of immigration, both Greens and FDP will probably argue for more open policies with regards to labour migration to Germany though. This is probably the most significant change I'd expect and not so much on the area of refugees.

Isn't FDP keen on going to a similar immigration system to Australia and Canada which is based on a points system?  And I don't see why SPD and Greens would have too much issue with that.

One side question is with free mobility of labour in EU and immigration only applying to non-EU nationals, how much migration does Germany get from other member states?  Has anyone pushed idea to encourage more from other member states to move there or is it more something just never talked about.  In UK it was a big deal leading to Brexit, but I get impression in Germany free mobility of labour is basically a non-issue.  Obviously as long as EU member (and Germany is pro-EU so would never withdraw) nothing can be done, but wondering if some have proposed reducing non-EU immigration since they can fill many shortages with EU nationals thus less need for non-EU ones?  UK cut that pre-Brexit for that reason while post Brexit, its now easier for non-EU to move there since they can no longer rely on EU nationals to fill many shortages.  On other hand irrespective of rules, tough to move if cannot speak language and English is far more widely spoken as a second language than German is so that probably somewhat reduces EU migration there.  Though do wonder with Brexit if more Eastern Europeans who in past moved to UK will now start moving to Germany?

[buritobr]

Armin Laschet didn't claim that there was voter fraud. Germany remains a sane country in this insane world.

[mileslunn]

Armin Laschet didn't claim that there was voter fraud. Germany remains a sane country in this insane world.

Trump and Bolsonaro are more like AfD who if they were close to winning may have.  CDU/CSU may lean right, but they are not remotely like GOP.  At best they are maybe like GOP was back under Eisenhower or like state GOP in solid blue states like Massachusetts, Maryland & Vermont and none of those engaged in that kind of stuff.

[parochial boy]

Also sorry for spamming today, but how durable are the FDP's gains in the youth vote?

I don't doubt that they are now the choice of many young right-leaning people, but could we say that the FDP's soft skepticism towards lockdowns gave them an extra boost amongst the young and first-time voters as well? Or do we really see them keeping their 20%+ going forward?

Unfortunately Infratest dimap didn't ask questions about lockdown and COVID-19 restrictions, and I can't find any other exit polls like they have :/

A bit of youtube spam but this guy is normally reasonably ok (I'm sure one of the germans will disagree, but..) about things. The video reckons that there are a few things going on. On the one hand is the "freedom" (Covid, but the "you can be successful" message too). Add to that, pretty successful branding with he whole, the Lindner is a cool dude thing (erm, yellow posters), as well as visibility on social media that was less completely cringe than what the other parties put out (eg the Greens' song or everything Philipp Amthor ever does). The big push on digitaisation all goes down well, which makes sense really; it's a running joke here that when you get the train from Zürich to Schaffhausen you can tell precisely the point at which the train passes through Germany because it's the moment your phone loses reception.

So the FDP position themselves well, especially towards a certain mindset that a lot of non-left-wing younger people might have. Even then, it is also the case that a lot of young people aren't especially ideological, lots suggesting that there was quite a big number of people hesitating between Greens and FDP etc... which probably means there gains are rather precarious, but also probably means that the positions of all of the parties are going to be increasingly precarious and unstable in the future.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The AfD parliamentary group shrinks from 83 to 82 MPs, as one of the freshmen is considered too right-wing and thus not becoming member of the group. He might get guest status though, which would avail him to participate in group conferences.

Too rightwing ? How so?

And what's the reason they'd want him participating in group conferences but not as a member of the group?

Matthias Helferich is his name. He called himself the "friendly face of national socialism" on his facebook page back in 2013. He insisted that this was an ironic statement, quoting criticism from the left against him. Still, not a good look. He was elected on the party list before the posting was discovered.

Actually, that was the most prominent, but not the only Helferich incident in that manner.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Maybe stupid question but: generally with Scholz as a candidate for chancellor can we consider this as a victory for the right-wing of the SPD? Currently what for even the right of the party stands? Are there any major differences between leadership of the party or JuSos and more centre-leaning members of the party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Infratest dimap post-election polling numbers


Which coalition represents a fresh start?

Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 18%
Neither 24%



Would Olaf Scholz be a good Chancellor?

Yes 50%
No 30%



Should Armin Laschet resign as leader of the CDU?

Yes 66%
No 23%



Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU supporters

Yes 60%
No 36%

[Oryxslayer]

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU supporters

Yes 60%
No 36%

Not surprising. If the Union actually wants a chance at Jamaica the knifes need to come out fast, and someone who fits the moment elevated to prominence.

[Suburbia]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

[S019]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

You can find this answer by using Google, no offense, but I highly urge you to lose Google and learn about some of these countries before posting here, to put it charitably, your knowledge of foreign politics is very lacking.

[xelas81]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

You can find this answer by using Google, no offense, but I highly urge you to lose Google and learn about some of these countries before posting here, to put it charitably, your knowledge of foreign politics is very lacking.

Even more, there is very useful series of maps on last page.

[S019]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

You can find this answer by using Google, no offense, but I highly urge you to lose Google and learn about some of these countries before posting here, to put it charitably, your knowledge of foreign politics is very lacking.

Even more, there is very useful series of maps on last page.

I mean bronz is one of this forum's worst trolls, it's embarrassing, frankly, that he hasn't been banned.

[BG-NY]

Impressive that AfD won a second region. The third one will be tough, though. Not sure which would be next.

[Continential]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

You can find this answer by using Google, no offense, but I highly urge you to lose Google and learn about some of these countries before posting here, to put it charitably, your knowledge of foreign politics is very lacking.

Even more, there is very useful series of maps on last page.

I mean bronz is one of this forum's worst trolls, it's embarrassing, frankly, that he hasn't been banned.

It's sad that he hasn't been made a mod of USGD yet.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Impressive that AfD won a second region. The third one will be tough, though. Not sure which would be next.

They lost votes in that region, just the CDU lost more vote than them to the SPD. AFD underperformed their polls this time around actualy.

[mileslunn]

Impressive that AfD won a second region. The third one will be tough, though. Not sure which would be next.

Not really, strong East/West split still in Germany.  Both Die Linke and AfD much stronger in former East Germany than West Germany.  Many over 50 having grown up under communism have strong authoritarian tendencies which you don't see in former West Germany which has never had that.  When Die Linke was at 8-10%, they were close or winning some former East German states.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Why-FDP-will-chose-Ampel-over-Schwampel, Part #34642:

Recent polling has shown that FDP over prefer an Ampel-coalition to a Schwampel-coalition by 51 to 46%. So there is kind of a discrepancy between what the leadership suggested prior to the election and what its electorate now says. Greens will not go into a Schwampel: only 6% of Green voters prefer this option, while 92% want the Ampel. 72% of voters want the SPD to lead the next government, only 23% prefer the Union. Scholz has expanded his lead over Laschet in the head-to-head polling: He leads Laschet 76% to 13%.

There has also been a question on general voting intention with a very good result for all Ampel-parties.

SPD: 28% (+2.3)
CDU/CSU: 20% (-4.1)
Greens: 16% (+1.8 ) 
FDP: 13% (+1.5)
Linke: 5% (+0.1)
AfD: 10% (-0.3)

This is the worst polling result Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has ever estimated for the Union.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen post-election polls


SPD 28% (+2 compared to election result)
CDU/CSU 20% (-4)
Greens 16% (+1)
FDP 13% (+1.5)
AfD 10% (+/-0)
Left 5% (+/-0)


Opinion of Traffic light coalition
Good 59%
Bad 20%

Jamaica coalition
Good 24%
Bad 62%

Grand coalition
Good 22%
Bad 60%


Greens will decide in favour of...
Traffic light 78%
Jamaica 9%
Don't know 13%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of Green supporters
Traffic light 92%
Jamaica 6%
Don't know 2%


FDP will decide in favour of
Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 33%
Don't know 16%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of FDP supporters
Traffic light 51%
Jamaica 46%
Don't know 3%


Which coalition will come to pass in the end?
Traffic light 77%
Jamaica 10%
Don't know 13%

[Middle-aged Europe]

FGW polling numbers continued...


The bad results of the CDU/CSU were caused by
Armin Laschet as candidate 40%
The CDU's political platform 7%
Both 49%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Armin Laschet as candidate 65%
The CDU's political platform 5%
Both 27%


Should Armin Laschet resign as leader of the CDU?
Yes 63%
No 26%
Don't know 11%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Yes 62%
No 34%
Don't know 4%


Should the CDU/CSU enter a Jamaica coalition or go into the opposition?
Jamaica 17%
Opposition 74%
Don't know 9%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of CDU/CSU supporters
Jamaica 40%
Opposition 49%
Don't know 11%


The next government should be led by...
SPD 72%
CDU/CSU 23%
Don't know 5%


Who should become Chancellor?
Olaf Scholz 76%
Armin Laschet 13%

Scholz for Chancellor support broken down by party supporters
SPD 98%
CDU/CSU 49%
Greens 92%
FDP 61%
AfD 55%
Left 72%


Satisfaction with the election results
Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 46%

[Hnv1]

Did the AfD do well in Berlin or any cities?

You can find this answer by using Google, no offense, but I highly urge you to lose Google and learn about some of these countries before posting here, to put it charitably, your knowledge of foreign politics is very lacking.

Thank the good lord Germany abolished it’s monarchy or we’d be swamped by his bizarre questions on who would make a better Kaiser post Merkel…

[Serenity Now]

...and because the rule has always been (at the very least) to map all parties with seats:

These are fantastic maps, as always.