🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The term "Jamaica"-coalition only really became established in the 2010s. Prior to that, it was called Schwampel (Schwarze Ampel).

That's plainly and simply wrong. A black-green-yellow coalition was already referred to as "Jamaica" back in 2005. The term is reported to be coined by famous political scientist and talk-show crasher Karl-Rudolf Korte.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/koalitionsvarianten-von-jamaika-bis-neuwahl-a-375434.html

[Ethelberth]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

How?

[Oryxslayer]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

How?

Leveling seats ofc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't normally bother with this one, but there was more going on than normal, so here it is.

[Ethelberth]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

How?

Leveling seats ofc.

Ok. it is nowadays impossible to get unelected if you are a first candidate on the list of the electable party.

[njwes]

Would you consider it acceptable if only a "minority" of the AfD thought Nazi Germany was a very nice country?

Well, that's probably right. A majortiy prefers a caricature of the FRG of the early fifties or of the Empire as the place to go...

I know this is OT, but I'm curious what the caricature of the early-50s FRG actually looks like? Is it just a particular respect for the Adenauer CDU of that era?

[Astatine]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

How?

Leveling seats ofc.

Ok. it is nowadays impossible to get unelected if you are a first candidate on the list of the electable party.

If your party performs miserably in the district vote, that's true. Laschet could've been a victim of the CDU's success, but Laschet and success are two words that usually don't fit in the same sentence.

[President Johnson]

Laschet and Brinkhaus have made a compromise that Brinkhaus will only be re-elected for a six-month term today.

Brinkhaus has just been reelected with 85% of the vote, for six months.

Laschet couldn't run because he would have lost or finish with a disastrous result that would further have weakened his position. In case of a (not unlikely) trafficlight coalition, the caucus leader will be considered opposition leader. And this won't be Laschet and even Brinkhaus far from a safe bet as this post remains one of the last influencal positions the CDU can still offer. Spahn might attempt to take the seat then, or potentially Norbert Röttgen. Even Merz' name was mentioned, which is kinda hilarious considering he already held the position for most of Gerhard Schröder's first term as chancellor 20 years (!) ago. After 2002, Merkel as CDU chairwoman demanded the role in a move that caused lasting bitterness from Merz.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

maybe a different color scheme for AfD? I know which is which but outside observers might wonder why the AfD is winning in Berlin.

Fuchsia and violet stand out pretty well against each other; e.g. you can see that the southern Leipzig constituency is held by a different party to that which holds much of the rest of Saxony. It isn't ideal, but there's no realistic alternative other than going full troll and giving the AfD brown.

The correct option is greys for union, blues for AfD, but I understand if that is undesirable because of black borders.

Actually black, unlike white, is mappable. But it is traditional to use blue for the CDU-CSU when making maps, particularly if there's implicit historical perspective involved. It means you avoid the absurdity of insisting that the CSU is a separate party and draws a distinction between the CDU and its ancestor party the Zentrum.* Not that I'm ever much bothered by party usage, but the CDU itself doesn't use black all that much these days and went through a phase during the early stages of Merkel's second and grand tenure of using orange. Similarly it is worth noting that Die Linke's official colour has never been purple, but purple has always been used to represent the successor parties to the SED. The AfD can take whatever they are given.

_{*A remnant of which insisted on carrying on as a rump party in the early years of the Federal Republic and which had enough support to win a direct seat in Oberhausen once.}

[Sven der Igel]

I don't normally bother with this one, but there was more going on than normal, so here it is.

Always a pleasure to see these cool maps.

AfD still doing unsurprisingly well in meth country.

[H. Ross Peron]

To put into perspective just how historically bad this result is for the Union, not only did they get their lowest vote share ever, but this election also saw their lowest ever raw vote total after only 1949. Humiliating considering that the pre-reunification Federal Republic only had a population of 50-60 million.

If you consider Zentrum the pre-war Union, where does this compare to the all time low?

You cant compare the two. The Union has a significant Protestant support base that Zentrum never did. The only party that this comparison *might* be valid for is the SPD and that's ignoring the changed situation such as the disappearance of a mass communist party in the Federal Republic.

[Astatine]

To put into perspective just how historically bad this result is for the Union, not only did they get their lowest vote share ever, but this election also saw their lowest ever raw vote total after only 1949. Humiliating considering that the pre-reunification Federal Republic only had a population of 50-60 million.

If you consider Zentrum the pre-war Union, where does this compare to the all time low?

You cant compare the two. The Union has a significant Protestant support base that Zentrum never did. The only party that this comparison *might* be valid for is the SPD and that's ignoring the changed situation such as the disappearance of a mass communist party in the Federal Republic.

And BVP for CSU.

[President Johnson]

Wanted to share two interesting links to ZEIT:

All interactive results: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Interactive graph of Bundestag members: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/bundestag-interaktive-sitzverteilung-bundestagswahl-abgeordnete

The latter is especially interesting for SPD and Greens, who have a lot of younger members in. The new SPD caucus is split nearly 50/50 between new and reelected members. Average age is just about 46 years. Nearly 42% of the 206 are women, 56% of all members are 40 years or younger. Truly proud of my party to have such a diverse caucus that really represents the country.

[buritobr]

The SPD had 25.74% in 2021 and 25.73% in 2013. So, in percentage, the SPD had its 4th worst result after 2017, 2009, 2013. On the other side, the SPD won the plurality: only in 1972, 1998, 2002 this party had achieved this result.
Well, but comparing to the expectation of the beggining of 2021, SPD did a good result.

[Continential]

I don't normally bother with this one, but there was more going on than normal, so here it is.

Always a pleasure to see these cool maps.

We all know that you are Tender

[Lechasseur]

maybe a different color scheme for AfD? I know which is which but outside observers might wonder why the AfD is winning in Berlin.

Fuchsia and violet stand out pretty well against each other; e.g. you can see that the southern Leipzig constituency is held by a different party to that which holds much of the rest of Saxony. It isn't ideal, but there's no realistic alternative other than going full troll and giving the AfD brown.

The correct option is greys for union, blues for AfD, but I understand if that is undesirable because of black borders.

Actually black, unlike white, is mappable. But it is traditional to use blue for the CDU-CSU when making maps, particularly if there's implicit historical perspective involved. It means you avoid the absurdity of insisting that the CSU is a separate party and draws a distinction between the CDU and its ancestor party the Zentrum.* Not that I'm ever much bothered by party usage, but the CDU itself doesn't use black all that much these days and went through a phase during the early stages of Merkel's second and grand tenure of using orange. Similarly it is worth noting that Die Linke's official colour has never been purple, but purple has always been used to represent the successor parties to the SED. The AfD can take whatever they are given.

_{*A remnant of which insisted on carrying on as a rump party in the early years of the Federal Republic and which had enough support to win a direct seat in Duisburg once.}

Orange seems to be the colour of choice of most Christian Democratic parties: in Belgium, in Luxembourg, in Switzerland, and in France (if you count UDF/MoDem as such), so it makes sense.

Why is orange associated with Christian Democracy though?

Same for the association of Zentrum/CDU with black?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

[Lechasseur]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

I saw that earlier in the thread, but that's pretty interesting regardless.

I believe that historically, Niedersachsen was very much a lean-SPD state, it's funny that now the most CDU constituency in the country's there.

[Astatine]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

I saw that earlier in the thread, but that's pretty interesting regardless.

I believe that historically, Niedersachsen was very much a lean-SPD state, it's funny that now the most CDU constituency in the country's there.

Cloppenburg-Vechta has always been a CDU stronghold, with the CDU's district vote always having been above 55 % - Silvia Breher's result of 49 % this year is an absolute record low. It is a predominantly rural area with many Catholics (2011: 60 %, plus 20 % Protestants, so really above the German average of ~60 % Christian affiliation), even the relics of the Center Party have some local representation there.

[Tintrlvr]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

Anyone know why the CDU is so strong in that particular seat? It's surrounded by SPD seats, too.

[Alcibiades]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

Anyone know why the CDU is so strong in that particular seat? It's surrounded by SPD seats, too.

As Astatine explained, it’s a largely Catholic rural area.

[Astatine]

maybe a different color scheme for AfD? I know which is which but outside observers might wonder why the AfD is winning in Berlin.

Fuchsia and violet stand out pretty well against each other; e.g. you can see that the southern Leipzig constituency is held by a different party to that which holds much of the rest of Saxony. It isn't ideal, but there's no realistic alternative other than going full troll and giving the AfD brown.

The correct option is greys for union, blues for AfD, but I understand if that is undesirable because of black borders.

Actually black, unlike white, is mappable. But it is traditional to use blue for the CDU-CSU when making maps, particularly if there's implicit historical perspective involved. It means you avoid the absurdity of insisting that the CSU is a separate party and draws a distinction between the CDU and its ancestor party the Zentrum.* Not that I'm ever much bothered by party usage, but the CDU itself doesn't use black all that much these days and went through a phase during the early stages of Merkel's second and grand tenure of using orange. Similarly it is worth noting that Die Linke's official colour has never been purple, but purple has always been used to represent the successor parties to the SED. The AfD can take whatever they are given.

_{*A remnant of which insisted on carrying on as a rump party in the early years of the Federal Republic and which had enough support to win a direct seat in Duisburg once.}

Orange seems to be the colour of choice of most Christian Democratic parties: in Belgium, in Luxembourg, in Switzerland, and in France (if you count UDF/MoDem as such), so it makes sense.

Why is orange associated with Christian Democracy though?

Same for the association of Zentrum/CDU with black?

Political opponents of organized political Catholicism called the Zentrum the "Blacks" because of the black gowns Catholic priests wear. The Weimar Coalition of SPD, Zentrum and DDP actively advertised with the German flag (Black-Red-Gold) in campaigns, and this probably strengthened the association of the color Black with political Catholicism, while Red was the color of the Labour movement and Yellow/Gold associated with Liberalism.

In the Federal Republic, this associated stuck with the CDU, although I am not sure whether the CDU really had Black as official party color in the beginning. The FDP didn't officially use Yellow as party color until 1972, although as mentioned before, it was the color Liberalism was associated with.

Later on, the CDU actively took the association of Black with political Conservatism in campaigns like this (1974):



As black is really an... uninspiring or difficult color to base campaigns on, Orange was the closest choice. Red was taken (SPD, PDS), Yellow (FDP) and Green too, Blue was used by the Republicans at that time (early 2000s when they were already losing their relevance) and was distinctive for the CSU, so Orange remained as a color of vitality and inspiration according to the official CI. Later on, with the Pirates emerging as the "orange" party around 2011/12, the CDU faded out that color somewhat, although it was still widely used until 2017.

The CSV in Luxembourg actually had used Black as official color until 2000 when it switched to Orange.

[Sozialliberal]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

Anyone know why the CDU is so strong in that particular seat? It's surrounded by SPD seats, too.

There are two reasons for that:

1. Agriculture plays a very important role in the constituency's economy. Most farmers are loyal CDU/CSU supporters.

2. Majority Catholic, which is unusual for northern Germany. See this map (percentage of Catholics by district, 2011 census). Very religious overall.

[mileslunn]

The SPD had 25.74% in 2021 and 25.73% in 2013. So, in percentage, the SPD had its 4th worst result after 2017, 2009, 2013. On the other side, the SPD won the plurality: only in 1972, 1998, 2002 this party had achieved this result.
Well, but comparing to the expectation of the beggining of 2021, SPD did a good result.

That seems to be a thing throughout Europe where traditional parties are at all time lows while greater fragmentation and more parties emerging.  Also a generational divide as seems older European mostly voting for traditional established parties while younger Europeans going heavily for newer parties on both left and right.  If only seniors could vote, CDU/CSU and SPD would have gotten in upper 30s and over 70% combined.  If only under 30 could vote, FDP and Greens would be top two parties.

My guess is many seniors have strong brand loyalty so staying with how they always voted while a lot of younger voters upset with status quo and want something different.  Its really only in countries with majoritarian systems fragmentation is not happening although in Canada where I live it is.  France also seeing two traditional parties implode.  On other hand UK has not but age rather than class seems big divide there.  Australia due to ranked ballots more or less ensures it remains between L/NP vs. Labor.  New Zealand perhaps is exception of countries with PR that hasn't seen greater fragmentation and traditional parties declining.

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1443086669742317571