🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Hnv1]

The girls who sits next to me at work is Somali. Should I tell her she has been a net negative to the country?

No, but you can tell her that as a whole Somalian immigration had a negative net impact.

why does everything in politics for young leftists has to go through emotions and how they feel.

[Hnv1]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Historically the West was proper Germany and the East\Prussia was called by some Asia. There's the story of how Konrad Adenauer wanted to give the GDR Berlin in exchange for some territories who were historically "German".

Some of my best friends live in Berlin and they always talk about how weird the old GDR people are, and that they sometimes prefer to live together without western flatmates

[Hnv1]

The party is dead, no matter who runs it. It has completely outlived its usefulness. I think the only person that could salvage parts of the SPD would be a social populist figure who sort of does an about-face on migration, arguing that open borders wreak havoc on the wages of the working class. But that's never gonna happen. Therefore the SPD has been relegated to being a copy of the Greens with less of a hipster appeal.

Social democracy is dead

[Hnv1]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

[Hnv1]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-climate-law-is-partly-unconstitutional-top-court-rules/a-57369917

Germany's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that the country's 2019 climate protection act is in part unconstitutional.

"The regulations irreversibly postpone high emission reduction burdens until periods after 2030," the court said.

It added that the law does not explain in enough detail how greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced after 2031.

The judges gave the legislature until the end of next year to draw up clearer reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions for the period after 2030. [...]

"The challenged provisions do violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young," the court said in a statement.

"Virtually every freedom is potentially affected by these future emission reduction obligations because almost all areas of human life are still associated with the emission of greenhouse gases and are thus threatened by drastic restrictions after 2030," the statement said.

If I understand Section 1 of the ruling correctly, future generations have constitutional status in German Law?

[Hnv1]

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

The Linke would never campaign for the Chancellor slot, as it is simply impossible to achieve that as a non-Volkspartei ("major party"). The only party besides CDU/CSU and SPD that has ever stated ambitions for the Chancellors' office was the FDP in 2002, and that attempt failed miserably ("Project 18"). The Greens only nominated a Chancellor candidate this year since it's within the range of possibilities.

FDP voters would probably lean towards Laschet though, lots of the liberal base are disaffected CDU voters. Support for Baerbock would probably be lowest among them.

Ah, and today a new poll got dropped that sees the Free Voters at 3.5 %. Doubtful they'll make it, but keep an eye on it if Laschet continues to be a lackluster candidate. The FW leader Aiwanger got some media attention recently for his refusal to get vaccinated.

I forgot about that akward 2002 FDP move. why on earth did they think it was even tenable?

[Hnv1]

my isidewith:
FDP 84%
SPD 80%
CDU 70%
Linke 68%
Green 67%
AfD 55%

I expected green and afd to be lower but overall pretty accurate

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

It would be interesting to see how a grand coalition led by the SPD would operate

[Hnv1]

GMS poll of Bavaria (changes from last election):

CSU 29 (-10)
Green 18 (+8)
SPD 15 (=)
FDP 13 (+3)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 6 (+3)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

I mean, what can you even say?

Free voters will get seats in the Bundestag with breaking 5% there or is it 5% on the federal level.

What is even their appeal between the CSU and AfD?

[Hnv1]

Don't think we noted the latest Trend poll of Hamburg, btw:

SPD 34 (+10 from 2017 / +6 from last poll)
Green 17 (+3 / -2)
CDU 15 (-12 / -2)
FDP 13 (+2 / -1)
SED 10 (-2 / +1)
AfD 7 (-1 / =)
Others 5 (= / -1)

Scholzistan. I wonder if the SPD can keep squeezing the other parties enough to start flirting with 2005 levels in the city.

I wonder who will vote more red, Hamburg or Bremen

[Hnv1]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

What is the Sonstige Party?

Other Parties, Sonstige or Andrer, i.e., all parties not passing 5% on the federal level

[Hnv1]

Are the FDP really going for a Jamaica over icing CDU in opposition, or is it a negotiation trick anticipating the traffic light coalition?

[Hnv1]

I have a question here. I have been talking to a few foreign exchange students I met who are German about their thoughts. (They mostly are supporting Schultz/SPD or the Greens). They all mostly said the FDP is the “business party, and they really don’t care much to get involved with social issues.”

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?” One of them mentioned the FDP is the “party for the rich.” I figured you guys would know more.

In German, the word "social" (sozial) can mean "serving the common good". I think that's what they might have meant when they were talking about "social issues". You know, there are stereotypes about party supporters: "FDP supporters are cold-hearted capitalists." "Greens are smug do-gooders who tell everyone else how to run their lives." "Linke supporters are DDR nostalgics." Et cetera.

A few years ago, I myself wouldn't have voted for the FDP, but I think the federal party is moving in a good direction. There is a new generation of younger FDP politicians who stress that equal opportunity is an important part of liberalism. For example, I really like Johannes Vogel, the FDP's spokesman for labor market and pension policy. He was elected one of the FDP's three vice-chairpeople this year, and I hope he will play a big role in the party's future.

You also have to remember that American politics is very different from German politics (or European politics in general). The libertarian movement in Germany is so tiny that it's politically irrelevant. FDP chairman Lindner said in an interview that if he were an American politician, he'd support universal health care. All major parties in Germany agree that universal health care is a good thing.

Here's how Germany would have voted in the last United States presidential elections:

Date: October 2020
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Biden: 89%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2020/Oktober_II_2020/

Date: October 2016
Polling organization: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
Would vote for Clinton: 90%
Would vote for Trump: 4%
Source: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Archiv/Politbarometer_2016/Oktober_I_2016/

Date: August 2012
Polling organization: Forsa
Would vote for Obama: 86%
Would vote for Romney: 5%
Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-die-meisten-deutschen-wuerden-obama-waehlen-a-851380.html

My experience with the FDP was it was all lawyers and western white collar, and that it was somehow the only part in Germany still believing in ORDO-liberalism.
If you look at the writing of the original ordos (which in my opinion is far superior to liberal writing of the USUK strain) you can understand their reluctance with dealing with "social" issues. The sole purpose of the state is to combat monopolies and create the legal Rahmen for a market to operate in. Maybe it's changing in recent years, but that was my impression.

[Hnv1]

would ZDF have a broadcast later I can tune into and hear the projected results and analysis?

[Hnv1]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

[Hnv1]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

[Hnv1]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

[Hnv1]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

Unlikely.

Well, the Greens' co-leader Robert Habeck was still open to Jamaica just some minutes ago, as long as the next government is a "climate government".

Jamaica will definitely be an anti-climax govenment

[Hnv1]

Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

Still no chance of an SPD-FDP-Linke coalition?

There never was one. FDP and Die Linke are just absolutely incompatible.

Lindner and Wissler both seem young, cool and full of new ideas. Was hoping they could put together some kind of libertarian socialist coalition.

What? lawyers from Frankfurt and pensioners from Cottbus will join hands like it's a student election in some NH liberal arts college?  

[Hnv1]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Steadily dying out or leaving the party to other alternatives (pun intended)

[Hnv1]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Steadily dying out or leaving the party to other alternatives (pun intended)

Indeed:



Die Linke is the only party from which the AfD can gain voters, they supporters to every other party.

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

[Hnv1]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I have quite a lot of friends in Germany who were radical leftists back in the days and now vote alliance or SPD as moderates (one votes Partei because he simply doesn't care and moved to Aachen). All the lawyers I know from Germany vote FDP, without an exception. But they don't mix.

Granted I don't know that many young voters, but that seems like quite a high swing between polarized parties in ideology and demographics

[Hnv1]

Who are the 120K moving from Linke to FDP? absonderlich
all I can think of are students in Konstanz and Bremen who were edgy in 2017 and dramatically moved to the center once they got a white-collar job in NRW

I mean having talked to people in my social circles about the election, I am now pretty sure about 50% of young people in Germany don't really vote on any Ideological basis at all, and even where they do (those who vote green because they care about climate change), it is mostly rather shallow. We shouldn't read to much into the decisions of people, and Lindner is just simply a quite popular and subjectively likable Individual just as Wagenknecht was in 2017.

I have quite a lot of friends in Germany who were radical leftists back in the days and now vote alliance or SPD as moderates (one votes Partei because he simply doesn't care and moved to Aachen). All the lawyers I know from Germany vote FDP, without an exception. But they don't mix.

Granted I don't know that many young voters, but that seems like quite a high swing between polarized parties in ideology and demographics

What do you mean by this?

Pro business and socialists with a capital S.
Professionals and white collar workers from the west compared to young radicals and DDR veterans/Ostaligists

[Hnv1]

Where did the SPD do better? Bremen or Hamburg?

[Hnv1]

Incidentally, why is it that FDP this time is polling so well among the young?  Is classically-liberal middle the new far right or something?  (I'm not talking about ideology; I'm talking about counterintuitive fashionable vote draw)

I assume it’s Lindner’s perceived youth and competence when faced by a Rotkohl like Laschet and dried Spargel Scholz.