🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[buritobr]

What is the future of die Linke?

Will they dissapear in the long term? Will 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017 be exception in the history of german politics? Will they fail to have seats in the next election?

Or will they recover? Will 2021 be just a bad year for die Linke like 2013 was for the FDP?

[Good Habit]

What is the future of die Linke?

Or will they recover? Will 2021 be just a bad year for die Linke like 2013 was for the FDP?

Well, they would have to find a way to rebound within the next few years - their old strongholds are collapsing (In many eastern districts they are now only ranked 5th behind SPD, AfD, Greens and CDU - ) - so it would be unlikely that without a big change, they would make it in the next election, because the margins in 2 of their 3 district seats werent all that comfortable, and Gysi is in his 70is...

So, may be if Scholz with Lindner and the Greens are runnig a very centrist (or - neoliberal) Government, a hard opposition from the left against SPD and Green-Sellouts - entirely on economic politics (and may be NATO), but not at all about migration or cultural issues, might help to revive - otherwise, the chances look dim...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.twitter.com/dunchaban/status/1443155910642343937

[mileslunn]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Makes sense.  FDP if they prop up SPD may take a minor hit next election, but as long as they block a lot of more left wing policies, they can take credit for that.  Greens by contrast will pay big time if they prop up CDU/CSU and could even risk falling below 5% threshold.  The Green electorate is overwhelmingly on the left and urban whereas FDP is more evenly spread out and is more like CDU on economic policy, but more like SPD on social policy.

[Babeuf]

What is the future of die Linke?

Or will they recover? Will 2021 be just a bad year for die Linke like 2013 was for the FDP?

Well, they would have to find a way to rebound within the next few years - their old strongholds are collapsing (In many eastern districts they are now only ranked 5th behind SPD, AfD, Greens and CDU - ) - so it would be unlikely that without a big change, they would make it in the next election, because the margins in 2 of their 3 district seats werent all that comfortable, and Gysi is in his 70is...

So, may be if Scholz with Lindner and the Greens are runnig a very centrist (or - neoliberal) Government, a hard opposition from the left against SPD and Green-Sellouts - entirely on economic politics (and may be NATO), but not at all about migration or cultural issues, might help to revive - otherwise, the chances look dim...

They should be able to get above 5% again just from the SPD and Greens losing some left wing voters when in government with the FDP and being forced to compromise.

This was also an election where both the SPD and Greens were doing very well, a tough scenario for them and who knows if it will happen at once again. They undeniably have real short-term and long-term problems though.

[President Johnson]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Makes sense.  FDP if they prop up SPD may take a minor hit next election, but as long as they block a lot of more left wing policies, they can take credit for that.  Greens by contrast will pay big time if they prop up CDU/CSU and could even risk falling below 5% threshold.  The Green electorate is overwhelmingly on the left and urban whereas FDP is more evenly spread out and is more like CDU on economic policy, but more like SPD on social policy.

The Greens would probably lose a lot of support in a Jamaica coalition, though I don't see them falling that low. However, Laschet may sell out everything to them just to get elected in the end. However, others in the CDU and especially Söder have no desire to sacrifice everything for such a government with a weak Laschet as chancellor. What kinda concerns me is that my Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann is a member of the negotiating team this weekend. Back in spring, he decided to continue the (state) coalition with the CDU against the overwhelming will of the Green base and their MPs and although both SPD and FDP wanted a trafficlight coalition under Green leadership. Also hilarious he recently urged Scholz to do more about climate when at the same time his record on the issue is pretty weak here. My state just built 16 wind turbines in 2020, which is a ridiculously low number. And even more ridiculous under a Green-led state government.

On the other hand, I believe the FDP has more to gain from a trafficlight coalition: The party could sell itsself as the "centrist corrective" for economic growth, innovation and a solid fiscal policy in such a government. That would make it a lot harder for a CDU opposition compared to a government formed only by left of center parties (especially R2G). And while some Free Democrats may see the Union more of a "natural partner", they didn't forget how messy the Black-yellow government from 2009 to 2013 was. They were thrown out of the Bundestag after these four years and the atmosphere between CDU/CSU and FDP was often toxic.

If - and it's still an if - things go exactly right, I think trafficlight could be a lasting government option for at least the next decade that combines social safety, bold climate action, economic and technological innovation as well as an open society. As Süddeutsche wrote today, Olaf Scholz attempts to build exactly that and make sure the SPD remains in charge for a long time. His remarks yesterday that any coalition should aim to get reelected weren't said by accident.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I always like seeing how smaller parties would do in a fully proportional system, and Germany would be… interesting. PARTEI getting 8 seats, the f**king NPD getting in…

I don’t mean to derail here sorry if I do, I just find it interesting to see the smaller numbers for parties we don’t pay attention to

Germany 2021

SPD: 189 seats (-17)
CDU: 139 seats (-12)
GRÜNE: 109 seats (-9)
FDP: 84 seats (-8)
AfD: 76 seats (-7)
CSU: 38 seats (-7)
DIE LINKE: 36 seats (-3)
FREIE WÄHLER: 18 seats (+18)
Tierschutzpartei: 11 seats (+11)
dieBasis: 10 seats (+10)
PARTEI: 8 seats (+8)
Team Todenhöfer: 4 seats (+4)
PIRATEN: 3 seats (+3)
Volt: 3 seats (+3)
ÖDP: 2 seats (+2)
NPD: 1 seat (+1)
SSW: 1 seat (+/- 0)
Gesundheitsforschung: 1 seat (+1)
Die Humanisten: 1 seat (+1)
Bündnis C: 1 seat (+1)
Bayernpartei: 1 seat (+1)
V³: 1 seat (+1)
UfbD: 1 seat (+1)

PARTEI [0.30713 remaining quotas] snags the last seat over Die Grauen [0.30680 quotas], a margin of just 21 votes.

A traffic light coalition still has a decent majority, though lessened to 382/735 seats rather than 416/735.

[soundchaser]

I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.

They had seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag as recently as 2016.

[Tintrlvr]

What is the future of die Linke?

Will they dissapear in the long term? Will 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017 be exception in the history of german politics? Will they fail to have seats in the next election?

Or will they recover? Will 2021 be just a bad year for die Linke like 2013 was for the FDP?

This was a tough election for Linke because there are only so many votes on the left, and both SPD and Grune were riding high going into the election (Grune earlier, SPD closer to election day), which meant there was a lot of pressure on left-wing voters to choose them rather than Linke. I feel like a traffic-light coalition, which seems by far the likeliest result, is exactly what Linke needs to experience a revival. After all, SPD and Grune will be implementing at most center-left, but realistically centrist, economic policies with the FDP involved, and that means a wide opening for Linke to be a pressure party on the left and a home for leftists who have recently abandoned it for the SPD and Grune. It also may be the case that, without the CDU in government, the relevance of the AFD declines, which might mean some swing-back of former Linke voters in the East from the AFD, though that feels more speculative and theoretical.

Long-term, though, Linke will still have an uncertain future beyond the next election if it's viewed as not a viable potential government participant.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What kinda concerns me is that my Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann is a member of the negotiating team this weekend. Back in spring, he decided to continue the (state) coalition with the CDU against the overwhelming will of the Green base and their MPs and although both SPD and FDP wanted a trafficlight coalition under Green leadership.

Kretschmann is only one of the ten member strong Green negotiating team, and he kind of gets balanced out by Claudia Roth, Ricarda Lang, and Sven Giegold also being on the same team. The group is apparently designed to represent the whole spectrum of the party, and Kretschmann is obivously the most conservative one.

I attended the Green election night on Sunday and you would have had a hard time to find anyone there who actually preferred Jamaica. I certainly haven't met anyone. It's not just the CDU, but on top of that the fact remains that Armin Laschet is an incompetent buffoon who you wouldn't for Chancellor.  What I did hear there was a certain concern that we could end up with Jamaica after the FDP derails Traffic light on purpose.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On Friday, there will be a second rounds of talks between Greens and FDP.

FDP is then planning to talk with the CDU on Saturday, and with the SPD on Sunday.

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Btw, FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said this evening that there is actually no meeting with the CDU scheduled for Saturday so far. They had only invited the CDU for Saturday but the Christian Dems have now turned it down due to scheduling reasons.

So, FDP and Greens will only meet the SPD on Sunday and talks with the CDU will maybe happen sometime next week.

[mileslunn]

If Traffic light coalition goes ahead, wondering what issues they would compromise on.  I figure on social issues like climate change as well as perhaps legalizing marijuana would be easy to agree on.  It seems more economic issues big divide.  Some FDP wishes like privatizing Deutsche Bahn I don't see happening.  But on deficits and taxes seems real divide.  On taxes easiest solution is cut for lower income which all support while keep top rates the same as FDP wants to eliminate Soli for all not just everyone but top 10% while Greens and SPD not only want to keep but favour Wealth tax and higher top marginal rates. 

Perhaps on taxes like Spain did they could leave 42% bracket alone and only raise 45% as 45% one impacts less than 1% of population and would sort of be like Biden's promise not to raise taxes on anyone making less than 400K.  Also if you include surtaxes and other charges, top rate for Germany is 47.5% while of neighbours it is 49.5% in Netherlands (and it only 68,000 Euros not 260,000 Euros), 53.5% in Belgium, 45.78% in Luxembourg, 55.4% in France (This includes CSG charges), 55% in Austria (50% under 1 million euros so impacts less) and 55.9% in Denmark so if just raised to Dutch levels that would seem fair as I doubt even Greens or SPD favour going as high as France, Denmark, or Austria.  Yes FDP would oppose for both ideological and economic reasons, but really doubt average voter will be too upset if those making over 260,000 Euros have to pay a little more in tax as long as not so high causes a brain drain.  By contrast 42% rate I think starts at 57,000 Euros so that would hit a lot of FDP voters.  Wealth tax agree is not happening.  Other possibility is make top rate hike temporary and have it expire in 2025 and used exclusively to balance budget.  On other hand I think cutting taxes for bottom income all could easily agree on and only limitation there is more what is affordable. 

On debt brake, that could be a challenge as after all the problems austerity caused a decade ago, many want to avoid a repeat worried it will hurt recovery.  At same time debt rules mostly impact other Eurozone countries that are in worse shape than Germany and I don't think most Germans care if harsh austerity adopted in some Mediterranean country.  At same time here, with no one really knowing exactly how recovery from pandemic will happen since no past blueprint, its possible rebound in growth will be enough to balance budget with no cuts, but also possible if pandemic remains it will be tough.

Not sure what view is on new programs, but I am thinking a compromise could be do some but not all or perhaps stretch out timeframe.  Other one is higher minimum wage as I know Greens and SPD favour this, but wondering what FDP view is here?  Aren't they in favour of scrapping minimum wage or is that no longer case? 

On immigration, I think divide is smaller so should be less of a problem.  I believe FDP favours a points system like Australia and Canada have so I think that would be one that could budge on.  Bigger issue is on refugees, but even there not sure if gap that big.

On pensions, I believe all want to keep retirement age at 67, and more about enhancing it or not.

Anyone perhaps who knows platforms more and party views could comment on these.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What are the main differences in terms of refugee policy for the traffick light coalition?

[Astatine]

I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.

They had seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag as recently as 2016.

Because they performed so miserably in all elections since, they're not eligible for federal party funding anymore.

[Hnv1]

I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.

The third way\road (not sure how to translate der Weg) are allowed to participate, and they basically a nazi\dark enlightenment street gang. they got 8000 votes and I deem each of them a threat to public safety as opposed to these clowns in the NPD 

[Astatine]

The AfD parliamentary group shrinks from 83 to 82 MPs, as one of the freshmen is considered too right-wing and thus not becoming member of the group. He might get guest status though, which would avail him to participate in group conferences.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the main differences in terms of refugee policy for the traffick light coalition?

I assume the overall difference between traffic light and grand coalition would probably be marginal in the grand scheme of things and refugees weren't really much of a priority these two past years anyway... except recently with Afghanistan although in that case there was a consensus to get former German employees out and to suspend deportations to the country, a consensus where really only the AfD excluded itself.

I would assume that the Greens will push for more open refugee policies, the FDP would largely serve as a stand-in for the CDU/CSU, and the SPD would argue to stay the course (although the fact that the new SPD caucus has now a higher proportion of Jusos who are probably more pro-refugee could move things a bit here). The net result would be as mentioned above: no major changes. Then again, I can't really see refugees as an issue that could derail the Traffic light talks in any major way.

When it comes to the larger issue of immigration, both Greens and FDP will probably argue for more open policies with regards to labour migration to Germany though. This is probably the most significant change I'd expect and not so much on the area of refugees.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the FDP does indeed torpedo Traffic Light, bit the Greens refuse Jamaica, could we then get Afghanistan if the CDU sees another opportunity to be in power? It might be overkill given the size of said coalition

There alternatives are either another grand coalition (under Scholz) or early elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Green Bundestag caucus leader Katrin Göring-Eckardt further distances her party from the CDU/CSU by saying that the CDU is at present not ready for coalition talks let alone a future participation in the government. This is probably significant coming from a prominent representative of the party's Realo wing who, as the 2017 lead candidate, had negotiated Jamaica back then.

And FDP deputy caucus leader Stephan Thomae has said that he still prefers a coalition with the CDU/CSU, but that he wouldn't know at present "whom to call in the CDU" with regards to potential coalition talks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It is now being reported tat the FDP plans to meet with the CDU on Sunday, the same day the SPD will talk to Greens and FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU and Greens are going to meet on Tuesday now. According to CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak this invitation was opposed in the CDU presidium by Saxony's minister-president Michael Kretschmer.


The timetable for the next couple of days looks like this now:

Friday - Greens+FDP
Sunday - SPD+FDP, SPD+Greens, CDU/CSU+FDP
Tuesday - CDU/CSU+Greens

[Lechasseur]

The AfD parliamentary group shrinks from 83 to 82 MPs, as one of the freshmen is considered too right-wing and thus not becoming member of the group. He might get guest status though, which would avail him to participate in group conferences.

Too rightwing ? How so?

And what's the reason they'd want him participating in group conferences but not as a member of the group?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and because the rule has always been (at the very least) to map all parties with seats:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

If Die Linke hadn't gotten that third mandate seat, how would that have affected the results if they lost an additional 37 seats? Obviously every other party would have gained, but would there have been a SPD-Grune majority, or even close to one?