🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[rob in cal]

So, if the CDU/CSU had managed to just barely pass SPD as the biggest vote/seat getter, would Jamaica be much more likely, even if they still had taken big losses?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, if the CDU/CSU had managed to just barely pass SPD as the biggest vote/seat getter, would Jamaica be much more likely, even if they still had taken big losses?

Yeah, their case would be stronger, and at least the CDU's and SPD's prospects would be standing on a much more equal footing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here we go again... following the scuffle about the CDU/FDP negotiation leak, BILD has now reported about contents from today's CDU/Green meeting:

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/wird-laschets-jamaika-versuch-sabotiert-naechster-sondierungs-leak-gruene-sauer-auf-die-union/27675552.html

This caused Green general-secretary Michael Kellner to condemn the leak by quoting FDP's Johannes Vogel's previous tweet on the issue almost verbatim.

https://www.twitter.com/MiKellner/status/1445416725684625415?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Well, thanks Söder. Keep up the good job.

[mileslunn]

Looking at municipality maps, looks like FDP won some municipalities while Die Linke won none which is not surprising considering how poorly they did.  I am guessing in past elections Die Linke did.  For Greens, it seems university towns they are strong in so while not quite to same degree, you do sort of see similar trend with US and UK in Germany where university towns are a lot more left wing than surrounding communities.

Be interested if anyone is able to give the best and worst municipality for each party.  Also what was the highest for right wing vote (CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD) and highest for left wing vote (SPD + Greens + Die Linke).  Yes I get groupings somewhat arbitrary especially on right but still as someone from North America would be interested to see just for comparisons even though I realize particularly on right most in CDU/CSU and FDP probably want nothing to do with AfD.

[President Johnson]

If that continues, I will personally write to Saskia and NoWaBo and suggest awarding Söder the title of "employee of the year." Thank you, Sönnenkönig, very cool!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Green party deputy chair Jamila Schäfer: "How is a party supposed to provide for a stable government if it  doesn't even manage to conduct trustful and discreet talks?"

https://www.twitter.com/jamila_anna/status/1445417200530206723


Theo Koll, senior journalist for public broadcaster ZDF, went even so far as to say that today's second leak was probably the "death knell" for Jamaica.

[buritobr]

If the FDP really refuses to work together with the SPD and the Grüne really refuses to work together with the CDU/CSU, is there any possibiity of a SPD-Grüne minority government?

[Oryxslayer]

If the FDP really refuses to work together with the SPD and the Grüne really refuses to work together with the CDU/CSU, is there any possibiity of a SPD-Grüne minority government?

Minorities are unGerman. One of the four will eventually buckle to avoid new elections, and that includes the Union for GroKo v2.0. Right now it's in the SPD/Unions corner to offer large concessions to FDP/Greens respectively, but if the days start passing with no headway the pressure will flip to the minor parties to accept a deal before GroKo returns to viability. 

[President Johnson]

If the FDP really refuses to work together with the SPD and the Grüne really refuses to work together with the CDU/CSU, is there any possibiity of a SPD-Grüne minority government?

I think both Baerbock/Habeck and Lindner/Wissing know what's at stake here which is why the chances are low for that to happen. In the unlikely event Greens and FDP can't find an agreement, I honestly predict a Kenya coalition of SPD-CDU/CSU-Greens. The grand coalition is just done, although there's still a 402 seat majority for SPD and Union alone. The Greens in addition would at least make it look like an actual page turn from the status-quo. Kenya also has a strong Bundesrat majority. However, I really don't see failure here. All participating leaders know they can't afford failure.

Minority governments aren't a thing in Germany, and for good reasons. In this case, it would be hardly doable anyway since Red-Green is too far away from a majority and even Die Linke, which is in disarray now, can't get them enough votes. It would just be not stable enough and you can't run a country like Germany with that much uncertainty.

[Lord Halifax]

It would just be not stable enough and you can't run a country like Germany with that much uncertainty.

Doesn't the states do most of the actual governing? And unlike the US you got a professional and non-political central administration, and you got the ECB to take care of monetary policy and no foreign wars to deal with. I'd have thought Germany could do without a federal government for years without much damage, so why is a couple of years with an inefficient government such a problem? Just let the French run the EU for a while and let the bureaucrats and the länder take care of business at home.

[mileslunn]

Anyone know of a site with a link to Landkreis results and independent cities.  Be interesting to have a map of how Germany voted based on those as we have one for municipalities. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Greens have proposed to the FDP to start trilateral negotiations with the SPD to form a traffic light coalition.

This puts pressure on the FDP to follow suit quickly, otherwise we have a stalemate now.

[President Johnson]

The Greens have proposed to the FDP to start trilateral negotiations with the SPD to form a traffic light coalition.

This puts pressure on the FDP to follow suit quickly, otherwise we have a stalemate now.

FDP just accepted the invitation. Lindner said a meeting between him, Green leaders and Scholz is already scheduled for tomorrow.

There will be no parallel talks with Union, he added. So Laschet is probably done.

[Astatine]

Söder just stated that he sees the decision of FDP and Greens to negotiate a traffic light coalition as a clear refusal to any further Jamaica negotiations, while Laschet wants to keep that option open. Outgoing Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, one of Merkel's closest allies, also said that CDU/CSU should "do their homework" and show that they have understood the lections of 26/09 - Which essentially means going to the opposition benches.

It's not a question whether but rather when Laschet has to depart from his office as CDU leader.

[President Johnson]

Söder just stated that he sees the decision of FDP and Greens to negotiate a traffic light coalition as a clear refusal to any further Jamaica negotiations, while Laschet wants to keep that option open. Outgoing Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, one of Merkel's closest allies, also said that CDU/CSU should "do their homework" and show that they have understood the lections of 26/09 - Which essentially means going to the opposition benches.

It's not a question whether but rather when Laschet has to depart from his office as CDU leader.

Lmao, he was the leak. It’s so obvious. Funny enough, Laschet stated he’s still “open for talks.” He’s beyond delusional at this point.

[buritobr]

Did Christian Lindner committ a huge error in 2017 when he refused the Jamaica Coalition and said "Es ist besser, nicht zu regieren, als falsch zu regieren"?
He lost an opportunity for the favorite coalition of the FDP concerning the possible coalitions. Or did he really think that Union+FDP could have >50% of the seats in 2021?

[Astatine]

Did Christian Lindner committ a huge error in 2017 when he refused the Jamaica Coalition and said "Es ist besser, nicht zu regieren, als falsch zu regieren"?
He lost an opportunity for the favorite coalition of the FDP concerning the possible coalitions. Or did he really think that Union+FDP could have >50% of the seats in 2021?

In the short term? Probably.
In the long term? Likely the opposite.

Merkel's governments all had the continuous pattern of literally ruining the coalition partner. SPD lost 11.2 %p in 2009, FDP lost 9.8 %p (and parliamentary representation) in 2013 and SPD lost 5.2 %p in 2017. Merkel's style of being some presidential figure above partisan politics gave CDU/CSU the chance to acclaim all popular policies implemented by the junior partners for themselves.
Heck, even Alexander Dobrindt stated in an interview 2 years after the negotiations that Merkel was responsible for their failure.

The FDP also had the problem that they were lacking the parliamentary apparatus that CDU/CSU and Greens had in 2017, lots of the MPs were newcomers and apparently, there was a big lack of trust between the negotiators. Today, all potential coalition allies vow to not make the negotiations now a repetition of 2017 with numerous leaks of negotiated material etc. (...exactly what CDU/CSU did just now).

I doubt Lindner was that delusional that he'd think black-yellow would get a majority in 2021, but as 2017 was widely assumed to be Merkel's last election, the main obstacle for a potential coalition would be gone.

[bigic]

I doubt Lindner was that delusional that he'd think black-yellow would get a majority in 2021, but as 2017 was widely assumed to be Merkel's last election, the main obstacle for a potential coalition would be gone.

Actually, in 2020 AFAIK an Union+FDP majority did seem possible - because of the "rally round the flag" effect that benefitted Merkel

[Middle-aged Europe]

CSU blames FDP for having "ruled out" Jamaica. FDP denies having ruled out Jamaica, and blames CSU for "sabotaging" it. Laschet supporters in the CDU join the latter criticism and bemoan the "undermining" of their chairman by CSU and anti-Laschet forces within the CDU. Class A clusterf**k.

[Astatine]

According to numerous reports, Laschet hints that he is willing to retire or resign from his position as CDU leader.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

According to numerous reports, Laschet hints that he is willing to retire or resign from his position as CDU leader.

shocking.

Would this have any impact on government formation and/or would it just guarantee an SPD-led government?

[Astatine]

According to numerous reports, Laschet hints that he is willing to retire or resign from his position as CDU leader.

shocking.

Would this have any impact on government formation and/or would it just guarantee an SPD-led government?

I'd say as of now, it increases the chance of an SPD-led government since CDU is fully headless now - To whom are FDP and Greens supposed to talk during negotiations? Outgoing leader Laschet? Söder, who sabotages all? Brinkhaus? CDU is not able to govern right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Infratest dimap polling numbers


How satisfied are you with the election results?
Very satisfied 4% (+/-0 compared to Sept. 27)
Satisfied 36% (+3)
Less satisfied 41% (-1)
Not at all satisfied 16% (+/-0)

Satisfaction with election results, broken down by party supporters
SPD 69% very satisfied/satisfied
Greens 50%
FDP 44%
Left 29%
CDU/CSU 21%
AfD 10%

Which party should lead the government?
SPD 63%
CDU/CSU 24%

Support for SPD as leader of the government, broken down by party supporters
SPD 99%
Greens 94%
Left 86%
FDP 54%
AfD 37%
CDU/CSU 20%


Opinion of Jamaica coalition
Very good/good 25% (-32 compared to October 2017)
Less good/bad 70% (+30)

Opinion of Traffic light coalition
Very good/good 53%
Less good/bad 43%

Opinion of grand coalition
Very good/good 19% (-14 compared to October 2017)
Less good/bad 77% (+12)


Would the Greens benefit from or be hurt by a participation in a CDU-led government?
Would benefit 29%
Would be hurt 49%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of Green supporters
Would benefit 22%
Would be hurt 62%

Would the FDP benefit from or be hurt by a participation in a SPD-led government?
Would benefit 47%
Would be hurt 32%

Same question as above, but only with the responses of FDP supporters
Would benefit 48%
Would be hurt 35%


Would Olaf Scholz be a good Chancellor?
Yes 63%
No 25%

Scholz would be a good Chancellor, broken down by party supporters
SPD 96%
Greens 76%
Left 62%
FDP 52%
CDU/CSU 50%
AfD 39%

Would Armin Laschet be a good Chancellor?
Yes 14%
No 78%

Laschet would be good Chancellor, broken down by party supporters
CDU/CSU 38%
FDP 19%
Left 8%
SPD 6%
AfD 6%
Greens 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD, Greens, and FDP have all reported that today's first round of trilateral talks went very well, recognizing a mutual willingness to overcome ideological differences. Next meeting is scheduled for Monday and they will then continue throughout the week.

Meanwhile at the CDU, Laschet mumbled some nonsense about him being willing to step aside as leader of the CDU if the party arrives at that decision at the end of a discussion process that is being launched now and that will be moderated by him. In any case, there will be a party convention in the coming months to elect a new leader.

[mileslunn]

Was wondering how come some rural areas like Northwestern corner of Lower Saxony and northern parts of Hesse so heavily SPD?  Is that just due to tradition or are there other reasons.  I noticed SPD won many rural areas, but when you take combined right and combined left, generally most rural areas voted right (CDU/CSU + FDP + Afd) while urban left (SPD + Greens + die Linke).  Most rural areas SPD came in first in was due to left largely united as Greens and Die Linke quite weak while right more split as FDP and AfD strong.  But those two, voted left overall.  I realize in Germany, rural areas are a lot more dense and usually have a large town so not quite same as in US, Canada, or Australia where rural areas more removed from cities and lower population density.  But still somewhat comparable to UK and Tories dominate rural UK even when Tony Blair was PM. 

Another question is earlier some forums were talking about decline of social democracy in Europe so if SPD forms government, does that help their cause or will it be more an isolated case like Portugal and Denmark who have popular social democratic governments but hasn't necessarily helped elsewhere.  Norway just elected theirs so too early to tell while in Sweden, Finland, and Spain polls show them struggling but still competitive not wiped out like Netherlands, France, or Greece.  Only reason I ask is Germany is largest EU member state so often what happens there has impact throughout Europe.  Portugal and Denmark are small countries which few pay attention to.