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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214113 times)
buritobr
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« on: March 08, 2021, 04:31:49 PM »

The polls show a very stable scenario of the division of votes according to left and right
Right-wing bloc: CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD = 51%
Left-wing bloc: SPD+Grünen+Linke = 43%
This ~8 point margin for the right-wing bloc we see unchanged in the last months. The share of vote for each party change a little bit
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buritobr
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2021, 04:06:27 PM »

Umfrage Forsa, the first one in which some data was collected after the 2 state elections

CDU/CSU 29%
Grüne 21%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
Linke 8%
FDP 8%
Sonstige 8%

The sum green-red-red is 45%. The sum of the other parties that will have seats is 47%. For the first time, the sum green-red-red is close to majority, the difference is inside the margin of error.
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buritobr
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2021, 02:04:46 PM »

INSA March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 28%, Grüne 20%, SPD 18%, AfD 11%, FDP 10%, Linke 8%, Sonstige 5%

green-red-red is close to have the majority of the seats

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buritobr
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2021, 04:29:31 PM »

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible
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buritobr
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2021, 04:49:16 PM »

Kantar Emnid March 20th 2021

CDU/CSU 27%, Grüne 22%, SPD 17%, FDP 10%, AfD 10%, Linke 8%

green-red-red = 47%, CxU+FDP+AfD = 47%
green-red-yellow = 49%, CxU+AfD+Linke = 45%

According to this most recent poll, both green-red-red and green-red-yellow could be possible

Don't see a'traffic light' coalition at the federal level. Even if it were to have a razor-thin majority, there would be many reasons for both SPD and FDP to reject such a coalition proposal.

And what do you think about the green-red-red? If they reach >50% of the seats, would they build a coalition?
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buritobr
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2021, 06:32:59 PM »

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?
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buritobr
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2021, 04:06:31 PM »

We will see an interesting german federal election after 16 years. 3 human beings have possility to become the next chancelor.
Few people outside Germany (only german politics fans) cared about the election in 2009, 2013 and 2017, that everybody knew that were choosing no more than Merkel's coalition partner.
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buritobr
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2021, 05:14:09 PM »

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

Yes, you told, there is no legal obligation. But it is very hard that the parties break the promise.
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buritobr
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2021, 03:07:08 PM »

I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens. Probably, Annalena Baerbock will receive more attenction of the media because she is young, pretty, she has an interesting biography.
Wouldn't be wiser for the CDU to wait Annalena's momentum in the media fade away and then announce its candidate? In this case, Armin Laschet would have more media coverage in the few days after the nomination.
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buritobr
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2021, 04:42:43 PM »

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum
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buritobr
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2021, 04:01:03 PM »

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

If you like center-left politics, you should consider good that AfD is doing not better than it did in 2017 and that there is a great probability of a green-red-yellow coalition under the leadershio of Annalena Baerbock
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buritobr
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2021, 06:35:38 PM »

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat
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buritobr
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2021, 06:23:18 PM »

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.


So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender
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buritobr
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2021, 04:01:02 PM »

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.


So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Well, not necessarily (see 'never held any government office before' and 'no dubious corporate past') but there are certainly some parallels and I could imagine that Baerbock would easily get along with Macron. But you have to consider that Macron has always been a solo performer, whereas Baerbock would have to listen to the majority opinion of her party - even as Chancellor.

There are some differences, but I pointed to the similarities because both are viewed at same time as centrists and outsiders. This is different to many other outsiders, who are usually very left-wing or very right-wing
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buritobr
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2021, 07:29:16 AM »

Germany looks like an island of moderate politics in this world after 2008.
The 3 candidates - Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz - are centrist. The parties are still looking for the median voter.
In other countries, parties are not seeking the median voter anymore, they are trying to increase the enthusiasm of their own base. Very left-wing and very right-wing emerged.
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buritobr
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2021, 04:55:37 PM »

Some facts:

Only one CDU candidate was never the chancellor: Rainer Barzel 1972. Armin Laschet can be the second one. In 1980 and 2002, there were CSU candidates.

2021 is the first german federal election since 1949 in which the chancellor's seat is vaccant
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buritobr
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2021, 06:34:29 PM »

Annalena Baerbock is criticized because she doesn't have experience in the executive branch. She was never a mayor, governor or minister. She was only a representative, in the legislative branch.
But Jair Bolsonaro had no experience in Brazil before being president. He was never a mayor, governor or minister. He was only a representative.

.
.
.
Oh, not a good comparison...
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buritobr
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2021, 08:54:28 PM »

Sahra Wagenknecht has some criticism on Annalena Baerbock's proposals. One of these proposals the linke leader disagree is related to the foreign policy. Sahra opposes to Baerbock's plan to get closer to the west and less friendly to Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIlUci-PJVA
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buritobr
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2021, 03:54:37 PM »

It is not a suprise the Linke would have an internal conflict. Die Linke is not exactly a party, in which there is a leadership recognized by all the members and a program supported by all the members. Die Linke is better described as a broad front in which many left-wing groups live under an umbrela, in order to survive the 5% barrier. It is natural that the internal factions have a conflict to control the party.
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buritobr
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2021, 03:39:39 PM »

The conflict working class issues vs minorities issues is silly
The working class is not only white. Minorities belong to the working class. Immigrants are workers.

Being anti-lockdown doesn't mean being pro-working class.
The conflict health vs jobs/income during the pandemic is silly. Countries that managed bad the health policies didn't have better economic performance.
Workers need an income guarantee when the spread of the virus is high. They don't need a "permission" to use overcrowded public transportation and have the contamination.
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buritobr
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« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2021, 04:04:45 PM »

The german parties have official colors and some coalitions receive the name of national flags according to the colors of the parties: Jamaica, Kenya and Germany. Other coalitions can receive the name of countries too.

Jamaica: black, green, yellow (CDU, Grüne, FDP)
Kenya: black, green, red (CDU, Grüne, SPD)
Germany: black, red, yellow (CDU, SPD, FDP)

Other coalitions
Angola: black, red (CDU, SPD = great coalition)
Bolivia: red, yellow, green (SPD, FDP, Grüne = traffic lights coalition)
Spain: red, yellow (SPD, FDP)
Portugal: red, green (SPD, Grüne)
Old Austria, House of Habsburg: black, yellow (CDU, FDP)
Ukraine: blue, yellow (AfD, FDP)
Brazil: green, yellow, blue (Grüne, FDP, AfD)
South Africa: black, red, yellow, green, blue (all the parties)

Of course I am talking only about the possible combination of colors and the national flags. I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.
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buritobr
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« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2021, 06:57:05 PM »

If coalitions can have name of fruits, the red-green coalition can be the watermelon coalition
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buritobr
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2021, 08:02:33 PM »

Why is die Linke polling so bad?

I know that Sahra Wagenknecht has some views somehow similar to the far-right regarding immigration, private automobiles and the pandemic. Of course these views are not equal to the far-right, but she tries to appeal to people who could be AfD voters. But she is not the leader of the party anymore.
What is the problem of die Linke? Do the voters dislike Wagenknecht's views? Or is the problem the opposite: if her views were the views of the whole party, die Linke would poll better?
Or the problem is the conflict between the members who like and the members who dislike Wagenknecht's views?
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buritobr
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« Reply #23 on: June 19, 2021, 07:44:01 AM »

Are there educated young people in Germany who vote for the Linke because of the progressive views on cultural issues and not because of the socialism?

I asked because in Brazil, some educated young people vote for the PSOL (the Brazilian Linke) because of the progressive views on cultural issues.

But in Germany, it is possible to vote for the Greens, while in Brazil... the Greens are a shame
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buritobr
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« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2021, 12:04:20 PM »

Although I disagree with some views of Sahra Wagenknecht, I cannot deny she is attractive
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