🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Oryxslayer]

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.

[Oryxslayer]

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.

One of the few things I love about the Greens is that they hold primaries for both party leaderships and top/chancellor candidacies. Kretschmann wouldn't win a federal primary since he is waaaaaay too conservative and susceptible to automotive lobbyists. The Baden-Württemberg Greens have nothing in common with the Greens from Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen or Frankfurt.

Ahh ok, I didn't realize the Greens had primaries. Yeah, armed with this knowledge I couldn't see Kretschmann winning a leadership election unless it was uncontested.

[Oryxslayer]

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been elected. From what I can tell through Wikipedia, she's a social conservative and economic centrist (even wanting to reverse the tax cuts of the Schroeder government). I wonder if this will help the CDU gain more centrist- and left-leaning voters while also resulting in losing many to the FDP and AfD.

The best way to think of AKK is Merkels 'mini-me' from Austin Powers. Which in my opinion is a good thing, but in some other right wingers eyes is even worse since AKK is even more friendly to migrants. In my eyes this is the CDU fully embracing it's roll as a centrist behemoth rather then the right party on a left-right spectrum.

[Oryxslayer]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Trendlines are not permanent nor consistent. Yes the AfD is here to stay, but once the Green surge dissapates, the CDU will once again be the only German party above 25%. That's what I mean by behemoth, no party can enter govt eithout the CDU.

[Oryxslayer]

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.

[Oryxslayer]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

[Oryxslayer]

There are two more likely situations though: that the voters switching nationally right now are afd -> union, and union is losing more but it is hidden behind these vote gains, or youth (green) turnout is projected to be up and so everyone is getting pushed down.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting debates going on in the SPD.
While most now agree it cant go on the way they have been going over the last years, the opponents of the current course seem to be splitting:
-The ones around Kühnert who want to leave the coalition and move to a full scale corbyn party and onto the territory of die linke see themselves vindicated
-However, and this is new, more voices including Sigmar Gabriel (Editorial in the Handelsblatt) and Thomas Oppermann, are calling in the Example of the Danish Social Democrats for a strong move to the right on immigration to win back the white working class for the SPD. Already a couple of days ago the SPD helped pass a strict deportation laws in the Bundestag. Funny considering Sarrazin was disgraced by the Party (and Gabriel) for calling for such a shift a couple of years ago.

I find it odd that people think that the difference between those two approaches is so irreconcilable. Corbyn has kind of made his brand a fusion of populist nationalism and socialism, as evidenced by his emphasis on equality of outcome and his crypto-Brexiteerism. It's entirely possible, and given Germany's cultural setting probably politically favorable in at least the short term, to push left on many issues while moving in a populist direction on immigration, banking, or whatever.

In any case, the future of the German left is very clearly in whatever it is that the Green Party is doing, especially because they appeal so much to young voters. The populist socialism is great for working class towns in East Germany filled with a fading, older demographic. But I don't know how you make a political future out of that. That's Corbyn's problem in the UK. His party is coalescing around an internationalist liberalism even as he tries to embrace the white working class. That's just not a durable long-term movement.

Its far easier to have your cake and eat it too in electoral systems that are not threshold proportional. In the UK, as you brought it up, Corbyn got it to work in 2017 mainly because FPTP is a two horse race. He held the polarized labour voters from yesteryear against the tory swings and gained remain voters from London and here suburbs - sometimes quite dramatically with 10+ pt swings. The problem of course now is that both parties presented themselves as polarized options to those Brexit/Remain voters, when in actuality they still bridged the divide. So now there appears to be a reallignment going on, a reallignment that probably won't kill either of the big twos brands but will reshuffle their bases.

On the other end of the spectrum there is Denmark and Scandinavia. Its okay in this environment for parties to take positions divergent from the norm because the block system hold everyone together. It more or less is a Two-Party environment, with you casting votes for ideological pillars within the parties. So its okay if one party in the tent goes to the right on one issue, others will move to the left and appeal to the rest of the voters. This is  one take after all from the Danish election - The Soc-Dems gained DPP voters but lost migration voters to other minor left parties. But its okay because voter have confidence that both sides of the divide should come together and reconcile policy, even though right now the combined left minors and the Soc-Dems are about equal in seats.

In Germany though the SPD has neither FPTP or friendly allies to back them up. They can try to move to adopt other parties positions...but why should it succeed? The SPD has been in decline, and the brand has suffered. The AfD still has the better anti-migrant brand if the SPD tries to adopt anti-migrant positions. Because the AfD owns the issue, the SPD cannot break through. Like in Denmark, if the SPD moves they will likely lose what pro-immigration voters are left to the Greens..but this doesn't help the SPDs end goal like in denmark. Or they can try and refocus on environmentalism, or woke leftism, same problems of a sh**t brand going up against a party that owns the issue. Its a squeeze that is so common these days since the Social Democratic main issues that they once owned are no longer the main driver of votes. Or the issues were triumphant, and now all parties support some form of the welfare state making their presence less than useful.

One route that does offer an electoral crutch is charisma. Like in the Netherlands, the UK 2017, early shultz-mentum, and plenty of other parties in other nations, a popular candidate can pull back voters who are willing to look past the poor platform. There are of course two problems: once in government you may be found to lack any electoral substance like M5S, and the SPD doesn't exactly have much charisma in its ranks.

[Oryxslayer]

I feel that people tend to glaze over the fact that the Danish Social Democrats actually, you know, lost vote share this year. Despite the advantages of opposition, unpopular incumbent and the like.

I'm no big fan of the approach they took here, but tbf their share was down 0.2% or something?

(and they were actually up a seat)

As I said in my big post, they bled votes like wild to the left wing minors but picked up DPP votes. Which you know, is fine if the minors and the S-Ds are on the same team, which they are under the Scandinavian block system but not the German proportional with threasholds one.

[Oryxslayer]

Realistically, Black-Green or visa versa is whats going to be formed if a snap election occurs. Its more or less what Merkel wanted after the 2017 results, and I have a hard time seeing the fiscally
right side of the Greens approving a government with Linke even if the Left faction wants it. The SPD also would refuse any attempt to drag them back into government and probably prefers to lead the opposition.

Since the satire party DIE PARTEI has been gaining and gaining more attraction, I wonder how realistic a PARTEI win in Berlin-Friedrichshain – Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg Ost, the constituency Green dinosaur Ströbele won four times in a row, could get? I already made a thread and poll about that district for the last federal election.

If the Greens are surging, then they will hold this seat on the back of Linke/Spd voters.

[Oryxslayer]

What if the green's/SPD preferable coalition ?
Red-red-green or the tricolore one?

Unironically Green-Black or Traffic Light, Linke carries a bunch of baggage and the German Greens are not Greonlinks or the Miljöpartiet.

[Oryxslayer]

Seems like the junior party of the coalition (and I’m not talking CSU as a partner of the CDU here) always gets screwed, no matter what country.

Not always, sometimes the Junior partner has the bigger persona and dominates the supposed leader of a coalition. See the M5S-Lega coalition for a comparatively recent example. There are also the times when the coalition partners are close enough ideologically and separated enough electorally that going into coalition is a forgone conclusion, and usually this leads to block-party alliances. A coalition governments actions in this scenario usually don't drastically impact polling for a individual party, but rather affects all members as a whole.

[Oryxslayer]

Another brand new poll with SPD and Greens tied and the Union in decline. As for prefered chancellor, Scholz leads Laschet and Baerbock in this poll 27-14-13%.

It is becoming a trend, so I wonder what the numbers look like under the hood. Probably a case of Laschet still has not regained the complete confidence of the Union electorate in his individual after the machinations with Söder and/or Merz, but the Union as a whole still has enjoys their voters grudging support.

Baerbock also lacks the complete confidence of her voters, which I would assume is because of how one cannot embody both sides of the Greens eternal factional dichotomy is a single person - but who knows.

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

[Oryxslayer]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

[Oryxslayer]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

I thought if Linke won enough direct mandates they will not be kicked out even if they fell below 5% ?

Theoretically yes. But the trendline in their eastern strongholds - mainly East Berlin - has been continuous collapse as their western delegation grows, and they can't win direct seats in the west. So a sub-5% result could mean < 3 seats and a failure to enter.

[Oryxslayer]

Note: I am not pleased with these results of course, hoping the numbers end up tilting towards the SPD

I think it's a little to early for the "I lived B**ch" meme posts I feel.

[Oryxslayer]

They showed a bit of the projected voter movements on stream.

Greens gained voters from SPD despite the projected swings.
Linke lost almost 1 million votes to SPD/Greens.
A good chunk of the Union's former vote is now nonvoters.

[Oryxslayer]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Depends who finishes first, and for this purpose, CDU and CSU are considered as one. Practically it's anyone's game, realistically the first-place finisher gets the power.

[Oryxslayer]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Not on the Zeit website? They’re at 376 seats.

(Although practically speaking I think traffic light is still far more likely.)

Out of 756. Reminder that the total number fluctuates through the overhang rules. The right in this scenario has 380. I never thought R2G was that possible, and even this rosy result is likely to trend downwards through Linke.

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

[Oryxslayer]

Detailed ZDF exit

[Oryxslayer]

Any sites with map results? I'm a sucker for maps

Not yet. But the map will begin to be updated in one hour:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Here's the Govt's national results page for those that want it:

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

25.2% SPD 200 Seats
24.6% Union 153+45 Seats
14.3% Green 113
11.6% FDP 92
10.8% AfD 86
5% Linke 40
x% SSW 1

Fixed

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

25.2% SPD 200 Seats
24.6% Union 153+45 Seats
14.3% Green 113
11.6% FDP 92
10.8% AfD 86
5% Linke 40
x% SSW 1

Fixed

25.5% SPD 202 Seats
24.5% Union 152+45 Seats
13.8% Green 110
11.7% FDP 93
10.9% AfD 87
5% Linke 40
x% SSW 1