🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

To put into perspective just how historically bad this result is for the Union, not only did they get their lowest vote share ever, but this election also saw their lowest ever raw vote total after only 1949. Humiliating considering that the pre-reunification Federal Republic only had a population of 50-60 million.

If you consider Zentrum the pre-war Union, where does this compare to the all time low?

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is how my precinct in the western parts of Berlin-Friedrichshain voted... old school PDS stronghold that apparently is now dying. Huge swings from Left to SPD with plummeting turnout. All the Left voters stayed at home on Sunday.


Second vote

SPD 31.0% (+13.7 compared to 2017)
Left 20.2% (-17.6)
AfD 12.5% (+0.1)
CDU 11.3% (-4.1)
Greens 10.6% (+3.7)
FDP 5.0% (+0.6)
Animal Protection Party 2.4% (+1.3)


First vote (comparison to 2017 is to whoever was the party's direct candidate back then - in case of SPD, Left, Greens, and AfD they had stayed the same I think)

Cansel Kiziltepe (SPD) 26.6% (+8.6)
Pascal Meiser (Left) 25.6% (-13.4)
Kevin Kratzsch (CDU) 12.1% (-1.0)
Sibylle Schmidt (AfD) 11.6% (-1.0)
Canan Bayram (Greens) 8.9% (-1.2)
Ann Cathrin Riedel (FDP) 5.8% (+3.5)
Martin Sonneborn (Die PARTEI) 3.6% (+0.2)


Turnout: 36.4% (-12.8 )

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's apparently some support within the CDU to make Markus Söder Chancellor of a Jamaica coalition:

https://www.rnd.de/politik/markus-soeder-soll-zu-jamaika-verhandlungen-und-moeglicher-kanzlerwahl-gedraengt-werden-DWJPTJ56VBGGBOLOJD4ZYZHR54.html

Of course, if there's now the same kind of large-scale Laschet vs. Söder power struggle we already had in April this does not bode well for the CDU/CSU's chances to become part of the next government. Greens and FDP probably would not want to hold coalition talks with them at the same time that sh**tshow happens again.

[Astatine]

My precinct in Saarbrücken Center voted like this:

Proportional vote:
SPD: 31.7 (+13.2)
Linke: 23.2 (+2.8)
FDP: 14.0 (+3.5)
CDU: 12.0 (-9.9)
AfD: 3.5 (-1.3)
Greens: did not run (-18.1)

District vote:
Josefine Ortleb (SPD): 33.4 (+4.8)
Gerhard Wenz (Greens): 22.2 (+7.5)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): 16.4 (-10.2)
Mark Baumeister (Linke): 10.0 (-8.0)
Helmut Isringhaus (FDP): 7.4 (+1.7)
Boris Huebner (AfD): 2.8 (-1.4)

The Green supporters in my precinct did some heavy ticket splitting, especially for Linke, but also for FDP and SPD to lesser extent. Numbers for minor parties aren't out yet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1442825460757540865
Nice berlin district level breakdown.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The term "Jamaica"-coalition only really became established in the 2010s. Prior to that, it was called Schwampel (Schwarze Ampel). I hope we will go back to calling it Schwampel again because it sounds so silly

[Astatine]

The term "Jamaica"-coalition only really became established in the 2010s. Prior to that, it was called Schwampel (Schwarze Ampel). I hope we will go back to calling it Schwampel again because it sounds so silly

Actually the term "Jamaica" coalition was used interchangeably with "Schwampel" during the post-election elephants' roundtable in 2005, but by the time the first black-yellow-green coalition had been formed in 2009 on statewide level, Jamaica was already the dominant term while Schwampel was rather used sarcastically.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My precinct in Saarbrücken Center voted like this:

Proportional vote:
SPD: 31.7 (+13.2)
Linke: 23.2 (+2.8)
FDP: 14.0 (+3.5)
CDU: 12.0 (-9.9)
AfD: 3.5 (-1.3)
Greens: did not run (-18.1)

District vote:
Josefine Ortleb (SPD): 33.4 (+4.8)
Gerhard Wenz (Greens): 22.2 (+7.5)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): 16.4 (-10.2)
Mark Baumeister (Linke): 10.0 (-8.0)
Helmut Isringhaus (FDP): 7.4 (+1.7)
Boris Huebner (AfD): 2.8 (-1.4)

The Green supporters in my precinct did some heavy ticket splitting, especially for Linke, but also for FDP and SPD to lesser extent. Numbers for minor parties aren't out yet.

How can Greens "not run" in the proportional list vote? Did they just abandon the entire state?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How can Greens "not run" in the proportional list vote? Did they just abandon the entire state?

They cocked the paperwork up.

[brucejoel99]

My precinct in Saarbrücken Center voted like this:

Proportional vote:
SPD: 31.7 (+13.2)
Linke: 23.2 (+2.8)
FDP: 14.0 (+3.5)
CDU: 12.0 (-9.9)
AfD: 3.5 (-1.3)
Greens: did not run (-18.1)

District vote:
Josefine Ortleb (SPD): 33.4 (+4.8)
Gerhard Wenz (Greens): 22.2 (+7.5)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): 16.4 (-10.2)
Mark Baumeister (Linke): 10.0 (-8.0)
Helmut Isringhaus (FDP): 7.4 (+1.7)
Boris Huebner (AfD): 2.8 (-1.4)

The Green supporters in my precinct did some heavy ticket splitting, especially for Linke, but also for FDP and SPD to lesser extent. Numbers for minor parties aren't out yet.

How can Greens "not run" in the proportional list vote? Did they just abandon the entire state?

Against their will, yes: they were disqualified from running on the Saarland state list due to irregularities in the selection of (who were initially supposed to end up being) their list candidates. This likely ended up costing them a seat or 2 in the end.

[Astatine]

My precinct in Saarbrücken Center voted like this:

Proportional vote:
SPD: 31.7 (+13.2)
Linke: 23.2 (+2.8)
FDP: 14.0 (+3.5)
CDU: 12.0 (-9.9)
AfD: 3.5 (-1.3)
Greens: did not run (-18.1)

District vote:
Josefine Ortleb (SPD): 33.4 (+4.8)
Gerhard Wenz (Greens): 22.2 (+7.5)
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): 16.4 (-10.2)
Mark Baumeister (Linke): 10.0 (-8.0)
Helmut Isringhaus (FDP): 7.4 (+1.7)
Boris Huebner (AfD): 2.8 (-1.4)

The Green supporters in my precinct did some heavy ticket splitting, especially for Linke, but also for FDP and SPD to lesser extent. Numbers for minor parties aren't out yet.

How can Greens "not run" in the proportional list vote? Did they just abandon the entire state?

That's why SPD was so strong in Saarland (37.1 %) - The Greens here messed up big time. Short summary: The first list nomination convention resulted in a very controversial and shady guy, who had run the party into the grounds for 20 years and had numerous scandals, elected on the first list spot, thanks to his local party having suspiciously many members, and it is rumored they were being basically bought by him. He also happened to have a phallus, which is against the Green statutes according to which a woman is entitled to the list spots with uneven numbers (not that anyone cared in the last 3 elections when a man headed the Saarland list every time).

Green politicians called on him to resign, although the media narrative focused on him being dragged down for being male instead of his actual shady background and corruption. Eventually, the intra-party arbitration court invalidated the first list, since non-eligible delegates voted in the convention. Ahead of the renewed convention, that only happened very few days before the filing deadline, the federal Green arbitration court excluded ALL delegates from the shady guys' local party - 1/3 of all delegates.

With his base away and his crowned successor, a woman btw, facing a majority against them, the Saar Green Youth leader was elected to the top of the list. But only shortly after, the Statewide Electoral Committee did not permit the list to run since the exclusion of the delegates was against democratic constitutional principles, especially as it was clear that the inclusion of the delegates would have probably resulted in someone else elected. The Federal Electoral Committee held up this ruling, marking the end of a week-long fight that the whole Republic ridiculed about. The PR about this disaster did not really help Baerbock either, it happened right when the Greens tried to bring forward some programmatic ideas after her CV "scandal" and the failed state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.

The direct candidates were not excluded since their nomination went smoothly, but the Green Party over here is such a mess that their prospects in next years' state elections aren't as good. Nobody really wants to govern with this chaotic troup.

It cost the Greens 1 seat they would've received in all likelihood (They almost cracked the 5 % in direct vote in spite of this mess), and one might speculate that if this disaster had not happened and the Greens would have actually run a campaign (Saarland was obviously ignored by nationwide Greens and the local district candidates were left alone by the state party, plus the Green brand is damaged), the CDU might have kept the district of St. Wendel the party lost by 3 points to the SPD.

Edit: Some Greens here were actually considering to take this case to Federal Courts. In an absolute nut scenario, Saarland would have a statewide special election, but this is highly unlikely, especially since the party distanced itself from the idea mostly by now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Holy sh*t wow. Honestly, I'm not a fan of the Greens, but they're not the ones at fault here.

It's utterly f**ked up that the Courts actually threw out the entire party list because of this. There's a place to regulate party democracy, but this is ludicrous and the remedy is infinitely worse than the original harm. This is disenfranchisement plain and simple.

[Sir Mohamed]

Question for European/German posters: What's your take we'll see a new govt? End of the year? Later? Or even sooner? Seems like this isn't just a question of negotiating a coalition treaty, various party "institutions" or even all members need to finally approve any agreement?

And another question: Did any potential govt get a majority in East Germany? Seems like the strong showing of Afd there is reason for concern and any govt just elected by the more populous West may not win back voters that previously voted for non-extreme parties. That said, I'm not even sure that would work either, since Merkel is from the East and seems to be very unpopular there since 2015 happened.

[Astatine]

Holy sh*t wow. Honestly, I'm not a fan of the Greens, but they're not the ones at fault here.

It's utterly f**ked up that the Courts actually threw out the entire party list because of this. There's a place to regulate party democracy, but this is ludicrous and the remedy is infinitely worse than the original harm. This is disenfranchisement plain and simple.

No, it is 100 % the Greens' fault.

The Greens planned their nomination convention way too late. Other parties had their lists elected in May or April already, while the Greens organized the first convention for end of June, barely 4 weeks ahead of the filing deadline, that had been known for months.

Intra-party filings against election of the delegates of abovementioned local party were done in May, freshly after the supporters of the shady guy had taken all delegate spots. The Green intra-party arbitration court (It is a judicial instance within the Greens, that all parties are forced to have according to law) just did not care to resolve this matter until one day ahead of the second convention (which was 2 days before the filing deadline). If the intra-party arbitration court had ruled that the delegate election was invalid in June or so, there would've been enough time to elect new delegates.

There are rules on how parties have to be run and how intra-party elections have to take place in German law. Any intra-party elections have to respect democratic principles, like the possibility of participating in intra-party procedures for all members within the respective area (town, state etc.). The Green intra-party arbitration court (remember: basically the party itself) ruled the first invalid since few non-delegates voted which they were not allowed to, but Electoral Committees have some degree of freedom to permit lists when such violation of democratic principles did not change the outcome. In this case, it was clear that the outcome of the second nomination process could have been changed due to the exclusion of that many delegates.

The state parties have a large degree of autonomy, but already back in 1999 (I wasn't even born yet), there were reports about mafia-like structures within the party surrounding this guy. His local party has had over 700 members in a town with a population of 37,000 - In comparison, local parties in cities with a population over 1 million like Cologne had less members at that time. The federal party just let him do his thing and never checked membership lists, and there were several warning signs. This ticking time bomb exploded at the worst time for the Greens.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm curious why the large size of the German Bundestag and the way list's are made doesn't lead to an influx of crazy Members of Bundestag. There doesn't seem to be a lot of scandals or crazy members from any of the parties despite the larger number of members.

Are german parties just better at vetting ?

[President Johnson]

Some new developments: Looks like Laschet's standing within his party is increasingly deteriorating. Not just may he not get his will in the question about the faction leader later today, Söder now congratulated the SPD to victory and said Olaf Scholz has the best chances to become chancellor. "There's only a small chance or Jamaica", he said and added "the CSU won't sell out all their positions in potential talks." Already yesterday he emphasized that the CSU's weight within the faction has increased.

FDP Deputy Leader Wolfgang Kubucki, an architect of the Schleswig-Holstein Jamaica coalition, also just said the chances for Jamaica and Laschet as chancellor are low since the CDU has "fallen in disarray". Kubicki added something like "with whom to you want to negotiate if there's no strong man or woman, and about what?"

It's also remarkable Angela Merkel has been completely silent. She's totally out of the news these days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Laschet and Brinkhaus have made a compromise that Brinkhaus will only be re-elected for a six-month term today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Holy sh*t wow. Honestly, I'm not a fan of the Greens, but they're not the ones at fault here.

It's utterly f**ked up that the Courts actually threw out the entire party list because of this. There's a place to regulate party democracy, but this is ludicrous and the remedy is infinitely worse than the original harm. This is disenfranchisement plain and simple.

No, it is 100 % the Greens' fault.

The Greens planned their nomination convention way too late. Other parties had their lists elected in May or April already, while the Greens organized the first convention for end of June, barely 4 weeks ahead of the filing deadline, that had been known for months.

Intra-party filings against election of the delegates of abovementioned local party were done in May, freshly after the supporters of the shady guy had taken all delegate spots. The Green intra-party arbitration court (It is a judicial instance within the Greens, that all parties are forced to have according to law) just did not care to resolve this matter until one day ahead of the second convention (which was 2 days before the filing deadline). If the intra-party arbitration court had ruled that the delegate election was invalid in June or so, there would've been enough time to elect new delegates.

There are rules on how parties have to be run and how intra-party elections have to take place in German law. Any intra-party elections have to respect democratic principles, like the possibility of participating in intra-party procedures for all members within the respective area (town, state etc.). The Green intra-party arbitration court (remember: basically the party itself) ruled the first invalid since few non-delegates voted which they were not allowed to, but Electoral Committees have some degree of freedom to permit lists when such violation of democratic principles did not change the outcome. In this case, it was clear that the outcome of the second nomination process could have been changed due to the exclusion of that many delegates.

The state parties have a large degree of autonomy, but already back in 1999 (I wasn't even born yet), there were reports about mafia-like structures within the party surrounding this guy. His local party has had over 700 members in a town with a population of 37,000 - In comparison, local parties in cities with a population over 1 million like Cologne had less members at that time. The federal party just let him do his thing and never checked membership lists, and there were several warning signs. This ticking time bomb exploded at the worst time for the Greens.

That's fair. Thanks for the further explanation. It feels a bit strange that parties are so micromanaged in Germany, but I guess there are obvious historical reasons why they'd want it that way.

[Oryxslayer]

After a Green-FDP summit had been scheduled for tomorrow, the SPD is starting to get impatient now and demands meetings of all three parties this week.

What's happening in the CDU in the meantime? Dunno... it seems Laschet is busy trying to remain party chairman. Also, there's also a possible fight over the position of the CDU/CSU caucus leader in the Bundestag. Incumbent Ralph Brinkhaus wants to run again, but others have started to argue that this election should at least be postponed.

I wwas thinking about this last night, and I wonder if we could be heading for a certain scenario. FDP/Greens wait for the Union to oust Laschet and then let it be known which person(s) they would agree to as chancellor in Jamaica. The pressure then falls on the Union to concede ground or commit to the opposition. If the former, then the FDP/Greens know the Union is desperate enough to get all types of concessions from, if the latter then the FDP has a justification to present to their voters why the party will enter Traffic Light.

[Astatine]

I'm curious why the large size of the German Bundestag and the way list's are made doesn't lead to an influx of crazy Members of Bundestag. There doesn't seem to be a lot of scandals or crazy members from any of the parties despite the larger number of members.

Are german parties just better at vetting ?

You have to be elected on the list in a state convention. If you have done what your party perceives a poor job, you won't get placed.

Directly elected MPs are somewhat more independent as they only have to re-nominated by their local party, leading to less party-line "rebels" (such as Wolfgang Bosbach, Peter Gauweiler etc.).

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a Green-FDP summit had been scheduled for tomorrow, the SPD is starting to get impatient now and demands meetings of all three parties this week.

What's happening in the CDU in the meantime? Dunno... it seems Laschet is busy trying to remain party chairman. Also, there's also a possible fight over the position of the CDU/CSU caucus leader in the Bundestag. Incumbent Ralph Brinkhaus wants to run again, but others have started to argue that this election should at least be postponed.

I wwas thinking about this last night, and I wonder if we could be heading for a certain scenario. FDP/Greens wait for the Union to oust Laschet and then let it be known which person(s) they would agree to as chancellor in Jamaica. The pressure then falls on the Union to concede ground or commit to the opposition. If the former, then the FDP/Greens know the Union is desperate enough to get all types of concessions from, if the latter then the FDP has a justification to present to their voters why the party will enter Traffic Light.

I doubt anyone would gamble on the arrival of a certain set of conditions in that manner. They've got to work with what they have now.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Question for European/German posters: What's your take we'll see a new govt? End of the year? Later? Or even sooner? Seems like this isn't just a question of negotiating a coalition treaty, various party "institutions" or even all members need to finally approve any agreement?

The time lag between the federal election and the chancellor's swearing-in the averages 49 days. Four years ago it even took 171 days thanks to the FDP.

And another question: Did any potential govt get a majority in East Germany? Seems like the strong showing of Afd there is reason for concern and any govt just elected by the more populous West may not win back voters that previously voted for non-extreme parties. That said, I'm not even sure that would work either, since Merkel is from the East and seems to be very unpopular there since 2015 happened.

The Thuringia state snap election was originally scheduled to take place on Sunday, but it was eventually cancelled last minute. I wonder if the AfD would has emerged as the strongest party in any state for the first time. The AfD has, until now, always finished runner-up in East German state elections, with the effect of strengthening the strongest party. So did they in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday.