🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[mileslunn]

New poll for the federal election:



Man, I hate the multi-party system, when none is polling above 30%. Too many parties!

Wow, the Right lead over Left has been reduced to 1 (48-47)

Yes but the greens have moved so hard to the centre that they can hardly be described as "left". A red-red-green coalition is nothing but a wet dream as nobody outside the Jusos and die linke wants it, the only possible constellations are red-black and black-yellow-green.
Indeed the Greens have become so bürgerlich (bourgeois) that their Voters are the second richest behind the FDP!

If this poll was the result of the election Black/Red would not have a majority! Could we see Black/Green?

A lot can change in 2 years but quite possible, you have some of those at state levels.  AKK is quite centrist so I could see her working well with them.  Had the CDU chosen Merz I doubt any of the parties on the left would have been willing to work with the CDU, but also the left might have better numbers.

[mileslunn]

Could the Greens replace SPD as main party of left.  In many ways left today is a lot different than in the past.  In the past was mostly blue collar workers but much of that has swung over to the right while present day left is more your younger woke urban types so in many ways Greens seem better suited to appeal to today's left wingers than SPD.  In past income, religion, and job were big determinants of voting patterns whereas now it seems more urban vs. rural (smaller urban areas and suburbs fall in between) and age and education while income matters less.

[mileslunn]

Could the Greens replace SPD as main party of left.  In many ways left today is a lot different than in the past.  In the past was mostly blue collar workers but much of that has swung over to the right while present day left is more your younger woke urban types so in many ways Greens seem better suited to appeal to today's left wingers than SPD.  In past income, religion, and job were big determinants of voting patterns whereas now it seems more urban vs. rural (smaller urban areas and suburbs fall in between) and age and education while income matters less.

I think the most you can say is that the notion of the "people's party" has essentially become defunct and that the left are much more willing to shop around with their vote than they once were; which can just as easily swing back and curse the Greens than anything else. The Martin Scholz bump was very silly in retrospect, but it indicates that the SPD is not a toxic brand and could potentially be a viable force.

Even on the right you see people shopping around, just look at UK now.  Still SPD seems more your traditional left wing party while Greens seem more your urban younger voter oriented but things could change.  True where I live in Canada left is split between many while right united but unlike in countries that use PR, right always loses when split so they are united here more due to common enemy than common ideology.  With PR that is less of an issue than it is with FTFP mind you on the right a lot of the right wing populist parties are gaining traditional blue collar social democrat voters while for Greens across Europe, I think many are younger voters who would not vote at all otherwise.

[mileslunn]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

[mileslunn]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

Trudeau at least in rhetoric is pretty left wing.  Yes actual policies have been much less radical and more centrist but for anybody who follows Canadian politics, Liberals have long history of running like Social Democrats governing like Conservatives.  Trudeau ran like a Social Democrat, governed like a watered down version of one so centre-left but not that left.

Trudeau though has ran big deficits, but mind you so has GOP so not sure that says a lot.  On taxing rich more, he did raise top rate which I think Greens favour, but he is opposed to a wealth tax which German Greens want (probably won't happen unless Red-Red-Coalition) and he didn't raise capital gains tax rate which is how a lot of rich earn income anyways.

He is quite woke on social policies, but Canada I think with is history of immigration and multiculturalism has always been to left of Europe on this.  Europe wasn't built on immigration, Canada was. 

Ardern is interesting as young fresh face and progressive and while barely won in 2017, became wildly popular and won a landslide in 2020.  Off course her government looked in trouble pre-COVID and big reason for big win was New Zealand largely avoided COVID-19 and off course being a remote island probably helped a lot which is not really applicable to anywhere in Europe

[mileslunn]

Germany looks like an island of moderate politics in this world after 2008.
The 3 candidates - Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz - are centrist. The parties are still looking for the median voter.
In other countries, parties are not seeking the median voter anymore, they are trying to increase the enthusiasm of their own base. Very left-wing and very right-wing emerged.

Germany has higher turnout than say US so trying to appeal to those who don't live and breathe politics and just want good government whereas in countries with lower turnout its less about appealing to others and more bringing out your supporters.  Also Germany's history has made extreme policies much less popular and they've developed a culture based on cooperation and consensus whereas a lot of other countries haven't experienced extremes so less aversion to them.  In US where worst, its almost seen as a source of pride to be ideologically pure.  In UK, class divide is much bigger although Tories doing much better amongst working class than in past while Labour gaining in middle class so seeing some shifts there.  Former larger however than latter.

[mileslunn]

The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

I think it is a pretty boring proposal. Carbon neutrality is consensus among all parties not called AfD, while more public investments or lower taxes are center-left standard demands and rather forgettable. The latter are also not that attractive to most voters - for some reason, progressive politicians always think that 'tax the rich' is popular when it is evidently not. Most people don't care about taxes that don't affect them directly. And those who do usually voter for the LINKE.

Minimum wage can be a vote winner, certainly at least in US, which obviously has very different politics than Germany, minimum wage initiatives on ballots have tended to be quite popular.  If Germany is anything like English speaking world, turnout tends to be lower amongst lower paid workers so probably a way to get more to show up.

Tax the rich is notionally quite popular, but yeah doesn't seem to help as much as polls suggest it would.  Also in US, initiatives on raising taxes on rich have almost always done much worse than initial polls.  I think raising taxes on rich while cutting for lower and middle class is really more symbolic to show which side party is on and paint other on side of rich, but actual impact not that big in terms of revenue.  Trudeau in Canada won in big part on this in 2015 so it can help there if framed as which side is leader on, but doubt idea of taxing rich in itself is a huge draw.

On climate change, that seems more suited for Australia, Canada, and US where parties on right still question existence of climate change and don't want to take action.  In Europe much less as you don't have the left/right divide on this like you do in above three countries. 

[mileslunn]

Looks like Greens falling as they come under more scrutiny.  Interesting how Scholz polls high personally but party does much worse.  Does that usually change or are their other reasons.  I would say while Laschet may not be exciting, he is seen as a safe pair of hands which probably bodes well for winning.  Question more who is in coalition.

[mileslunn]

Sometimes I really don't get it anymore and it's quite frustrating. Baerbock having some issues with her CV is somehow a huge deal while CDU/CSU can get into one corruption scandal after another - whether it's the mask stuff, Amthor or Klöckner being bought and paid for by Nestle - a 500 million Euro waste with their stupid Ausländermaut (toll for foreigners) or the cross inaction on several key issues like rent and construction prices, climate and so on and they still gain points. And I'm not even a supporter of Baerbock and the Greens. If at least the SPD would benefit from that. It seems that the Union can get away with everything, while SPD and Greens lose support over having minor issues. Are people even paying attention?

It seems in a lot of countries, people when unsure default to natural governing party.  In UK, same thing as Tories can get away with all kind of stuff Labour never could.  In Canada it is Liberals who hold this position while Tories and NDP who come under more scrutiny although in Alberta it was until recently that way with Tories.  I guess its people naturally feel at home in CDU/CSU so unless comfortable with others default to them.  Could be wrong, but that would be my guess.

[mileslunn]

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.  Also interesting on media as in Canada where I live, it is opposite, Liberals get a free pass while Tories get raked for any mistake.  In US it is so partisan that most watch whichever network supports party they do (Fox News if Republican, CNN or MSNBC if Democrat) so it just hardens views of other side not damages.  UK somewhat like that with newspapers but less TV (If Conservative you have Daily Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph while if Labour you have Guardian, Daily Mirror and to lesser extent Independent.  Financial Times and Economist lean Tory but more traditional type and less biased).  In UK in fact, whichever party Murdoch papers have endorsed has won in every election in last 40 years I believe.  They endorsed Tony Blair while Conservative other times.

[mileslunn]

Noticed Scholz on best chancellor scores much higher than party.  Does leader in Germany play a big role thus lead indicator or do people vote more based on party and platform thus leadership numbers irrelevant?  And how likely is it there is a two party coalition as right now polls suggest all two party ones would not be sufficient?  Or could there be a minority government with two parties forming a coalition and then relying on others on issue by issue for support?

[mileslunn]

With SPD rising, how likely is it that Scholz becomes next chancellor?  I presume Laschet is still favoured.  Also of coalitions seems unlikely a two party will be feasible and probably a three party so any guesses on which are most likely?

[mileslunn]

Any chance of a Red-Red-Green coalition?  Also if a Traffic light coalition is formed, what would it be like policy wise?  I am assuming that all other coalitions asides Red-Red-Green would be fairly centrist much like current government and some minor changes, but nothing too radical.  Perhaps maybe higher minimum wage and maybe longer period to balance budget.  I am guessing on taxes, they will be cut for middle and lower income, while stay the same for high income unless its a Red-Red-Green in which case they will go up and probably a wealth tax too. 

Is a minority also possible as while Germany has no history of them SPD and Greens could do it on an issue by issue where turn to Linke on areas they want to go left while CDU/CSU and FDP on areas they lean more towards centre or right?  Any chance of that or is German tradition a coalition always formed?

[mileslunn]

Wouldn't FDP's economic views be a problem with a Traffic Light Coalition?  I believe SPD and Greens both want higher taxes on wealthy while FDP wants to cut them for all including wealthy so would that be a stumbling block or would they proceed with tax cuts for middle and lower income while leave top rates alone?  I would think on economic policy, CDU/CSU would be easier to work with than FDP as CDU/CSU seems more socially conservative than FDP, but more economically centrist.  Also how about minimum wage?  Does FDP support that or do they take the pro free market approach like Larry Elder of California did that there should be no minimum wage which until about a decade ago Germany didn't have?

[mileslunn]

Any chance Die Linke falls below 5% threshold thus not able to get top up seats?  Looks like it will be close.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Greens are doing well in large cities, but in smaller cities and rural areas failing never mind former East Germany thus problem for them.  SPD at least doing well in former East Germany and has a strong Northern base even outside cities.  CDU/CSU still strong in South where traditionally strong but struggling outside.  FDP seems to be one that lacks any real stronghold and support fairly even.  AfD mostly in Southeastern part and Linke while doing bad everywhere, is definitely stronger in former East Germany than West.  Former West Germany seems to favour moderate parties and avoids extremes while those on far left or far right do much better in former East Germany.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have exit polls that give demographic breakdown of how votes were by age and by gender as well as if asked income?

[mileslunn]

The SPD had 25.74% in 2021 and 25.73% in 2013. So, in percentage, the SPD had its 4th worst result after 2017, 2009, 2013. On the other side, the SPD won the plurality: only in 1972, 1998, 2002 this party had achieved this result.
Well, but comparing to the expectation of the beggining of 2021, SPD did a good result.

That seems to be a thing throughout Europe where traditional parties are at all time lows while greater fragmentation and more parties emerging.  Also a generational divide as seems older European mostly voting for traditional established parties while younger Europeans going heavily for newer parties on both left and right.  If only seniors could vote, CDU/CSU and SPD would have gotten in upper 30s and over 70% combined.  If only under 30 could vote, FDP and Greens would be top two parties.

My guess is many seniors have strong brand loyalty so staying with how they always voted while a lot of younger voters upset with status quo and want something different.  Its really only in countries with majoritarian systems fragmentation is not happening although in Canada where I live it is.  France also seeing two traditional parties implode.  On other hand UK has not but age rather than class seems big divide there.  Australia due to ranked ballots more or less ensures it remains between L/NP vs. Labor.  New Zealand perhaps is exception of countries with PR that hasn't seen greater fragmentation and traditional parties declining.

[mileslunn]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Makes sense.  FDP if they prop up SPD may take a minor hit next election, but as long as they block a lot of more left wing policies, they can take credit for that.  Greens by contrast will pay big time if they prop up CDU/CSU and could even risk falling below 5% threshold.  The Green electorate is overwhelmingly on the left and urban whereas FDP is more evenly spread out and is more like CDU on economic policy, but more like SPD on social policy.

[mileslunn]

If Traffic light coalition goes ahead, wondering what issues they would compromise on.  I figure on social issues like climate change as well as perhaps legalizing marijuana would be easy to agree on.  It seems more economic issues big divide.  Some FDP wishes like privatizing Deutsche Bahn I don't see happening.  But on deficits and taxes seems real divide.  On taxes easiest solution is cut for lower income which all support while keep top rates the same as FDP wants to eliminate Soli for all not just everyone but top 10% while Greens and SPD not only want to keep but favour Wealth tax and higher top marginal rates. 

Perhaps on taxes like Spain did they could leave 42% bracket alone and only raise 45% as 45% one impacts less than 1% of population and would sort of be like Biden's promise not to raise taxes on anyone making less than 400K.  Also if you include surtaxes and other charges, top rate for Germany is 47.5% while of neighbours it is 49.5% in Netherlands (and it only 68,000 Euros not 260,000 Euros), 53.5% in Belgium, 45.78% in Luxembourg, 55.4% in France (This includes CSG charges), 55% in Austria (50% under 1 million euros so impacts less) and 55.9% in Denmark so if just raised to Dutch levels that would seem fair as I doubt even Greens or SPD favour going as high as France, Denmark, or Austria.  Yes FDP would oppose for both ideological and economic reasons, but really doubt average voter will be too upset if those making over 260,000 Euros have to pay a little more in tax as long as not so high causes a brain drain.  By contrast 42% rate I think starts at 57,000 Euros so that would hit a lot of FDP voters.  Wealth tax agree is not happening.  Other possibility is make top rate hike temporary and have it expire in 2025 and used exclusively to balance budget.  On other hand I think cutting taxes for bottom income all could easily agree on and only limitation there is more what is affordable. 

On debt brake, that could be a challenge as after all the problems austerity caused a decade ago, many want to avoid a repeat worried it will hurt recovery.  At same time debt rules mostly impact other Eurozone countries that are in worse shape than Germany and I don't think most Germans care if harsh austerity adopted in some Mediterranean country.  At same time here, with no one really knowing exactly how recovery from pandemic will happen since no past blueprint, its possible rebound in growth will be enough to balance budget with no cuts, but also possible if pandemic remains it will be tough.

Not sure what view is on new programs, but I am thinking a compromise could be do some but not all or perhaps stretch out timeframe.  Other one is higher minimum wage as I know Greens and SPD favour this, but wondering what FDP view is here?  Aren't they in favour of scrapping minimum wage or is that no longer case? 

On immigration, I think divide is smaller so should be less of a problem.  I believe FDP favours a points system like Australia and Canada have so I think that would be one that could budge on.  Bigger issue is on refugees, but even there not sure if gap that big.

On pensions, I believe all want to keep retirement age at 67, and more about enhancing it or not.

Anyone perhaps who knows platforms more and party views could comment on these.

[mileslunn]

What are the main differences in terms of refugee policy for the traffick light coalition?

I assume the overall difference between traffic light and grand coalition would probably be marginal in the grand scheme of things and refugees weren't really much of a priority these two past years anyway... except recently with Afghanistan although in that case there was a consensus to get former German employees out and to suspend deportations to the country, a consensus where really only the AfD excluded itself.

I would assume that the Greens will push for more open refugee policies, the FDP would largely serve as a stand-in for the CDU/CSU, and the SPD would argue to stay the course (although the fact that the new SPD caucus has now a higher proportion of Jusos who are probably more pro-refugee could move things a bit here). The net result would be as mentioned above: no major changes. Then again, I can't really see refugees as an issue that could derail the Traffic light talks in any major way.

When it comes to the larger issue of immigration, both Greens and FDP will probably argue for more open policies with regards to labour migration to Germany though. This is probably the most significant change I'd expect and not so much on the area of refugees.

Isn't FDP keen on going to a similar immigration system to Australia and Canada which is based on a points system?  And I don't see why SPD and Greens would have too much issue with that.

One side question is with free mobility of labour in EU and immigration only applying to non-EU nationals, how much migration does Germany get from other member states?  Has anyone pushed idea to encourage more from other member states to move there or is it more something just never talked about.  In UK it was a big deal leading to Brexit, but I get impression in Germany free mobility of labour is basically a non-issue.  Obviously as long as EU member (and Germany is pro-EU so would never withdraw) nothing can be done, but wondering if some have proposed reducing non-EU immigration since they can fill many shortages with EU nationals thus less need for non-EU ones?  UK cut that pre-Brexit for that reason while post Brexit, its now easier for non-EU to move there since they can no longer rely on EU nationals to fill many shortages.  On other hand irrespective of rules, tough to move if cannot speak language and English is far more widely spoken as a second language than German is so that probably somewhat reduces EU migration there.  Though do wonder with Brexit if more Eastern Europeans who in past moved to UK will now start moving to Germany?

[mileslunn]

Armin Laschet didn't claim that there was voter fraud. Germany remains a sane country in this insane world.

Trump and Bolsonaro are more like AfD who if they were close to winning may have.  CDU/CSU may lean right, but they are not remotely like GOP.  At best they are maybe like GOP was back under Eisenhower or like state GOP in solid blue states like Massachusetts, Maryland & Vermont and none of those engaged in that kind of stuff.

[mileslunn]

Impressive that AfD won a second region. The third one will be tough, though. Not sure which would be next.

Not really, strong East/West split still in Germany.  Both Die Linke and AfD much stronger in former East Germany than West Germany.  Many over 50 having grown up under communism have strong authoritarian tendencies which you don't see in former West Germany which has never had that.  When Die Linke was at 8-10%, they were close or winning some former East German states.

[mileslunn]

Second vote by Gemeinde. For some reason the news websites don't show an entire national map, but some show some states and others show other states. So I tried merging them, that's why the colouring is off. White is forests and stuff.

Frankfurter Rundschau has an nice interactive map for BY, BW, SL, HE, NRW, NS, SA, BR, HA, SH:
https://www.fr.de/politik/bundestagswahl-2021-als-interaktive-karte-ergebnisse-aus-allen-11-000-gemeinden-zr-90980562.html

(Scroll down, click on "Gemeinden")

Tagesschau does it for the rest:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/index.shtml

Very interesting, tried going through to places I have been in Germany.  Curious why Greens so strong in big cities while SPD seems more in smaller places including some rural?  While I know Germany is different, in most English speaking country, rural tends to vote for right wing parties and that seems only true in southern parts of country, not northern rural areas.  Are Greens more culturally progressive while SPD more your traditional blue collar type party?  I know in English speaking world big reason right has gained in smaller working class communities is on cultural as opposed to economic issues while big cities tend to be very progressive and woke which turns off many other areas so curious if this dynamic is showing up in Germany or more unique to Anglosphere.

[mileslunn]

Looking at municipality maps, looks like FDP won some municipalities while Die Linke won none which is not surprising considering how poorly they did.  I am guessing in past elections Die Linke did.  For Greens, it seems university towns they are strong in so while not quite to same degree, you do sort of see similar trend with US and UK in Germany where university towns are a lot more left wing than surrounding communities.

Be interested if anyone is able to give the best and worst municipality for each party.  Also what was the highest for right wing vote (CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD) and highest for left wing vote (SPD + Greens + Die Linke).  Yes I get groupings somewhat arbitrary especially on right but still as someone from North America would be interested to see just for comparisons even though I realize particularly on right most in CDU/CSU and FDP probably want nothing to do with AfD.