2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

TPP VP candidate 吳欣盈(Cynthia Wu) has a mixed public image.  She is known as the "Princess of Shin Kong" and was a top executive at the powerful 新光集團(Shin Kong Group) only because of her father's controlling shares. 

Her family has always had some connections with the Light Blue branch of the KMT and is very close to KMT Prez Lee.  When Lee broke with the KMT in 2001 after he stepped down and shifted to a pro-Green position her family shifted her loyalties as well.

Wu is famous for two things and neither are that great. 

A few years back her father recruited a top women financial executive 李紀珠(Lee Jih-chu) who had many top roles in the industry and also served as a KMT PR MP.  Wu and Lee did not get along at all and they were all sort of business media articles about the "women's war" at the top of Shin Kong Group.  In fact, Lee was on KMT Hou's shortlist of possible VP candidates but was ruled out to avoid the spectacle of these two rival women executives having to debate each other at the VP debate

Wu's broken first marriage to another scion of another powerful financial group also was in the news for years.  It seems her first husband was dead set against having children which led to the collapse of the marriage.  While marriage was falling apart it seems Wu's husband suspected her of having an affair and arranged for a GPS device to be installed in her car.  All this stuff came out in the messy divorce which led to a media frenzy a few years back.  At least Wu remarried to a Dutch lawyer and finally gave birth to her desired child, at age 45.

The key issue here is Wu has no real track record as a businessperson other than getting her roles via family connections with everything else being about stuff you read in tabloids.   She did spend a good amount of time in the USA and could hold her own against  DPP VP candidate Hsiao in the VP debate when it comes to issues around the USA and international issues.    Other then that she is just picked for Ko to have access to some of her family's money to run his campaign.

[peterthlee]

Is KMT-TPP still heading towards an absolute majority in the legislature?

This means Han Kuo-yu is gonna be the speaker of the legislature...

It looks that way.  If a KMT-TPP alliance was formed then KMT plus pro-KMT independents would win a majority on its own.  That is still possible but less likely.  But a DPP majority seems very unlikely which means Han most likely becomes Speaker.

Even after the deal broke up Ko said that he wanted to campaign for and appear at rallies for KMT legislative candidates.  The KMT said they would not allow this.  This is because what Ko really wants to do is to use KMT rallies for their legislative candidates to increase his grassroots activities.  The TPP campaign does not have the funds for such GOTV rallies.   

The KMT is backing TPP candidates in 3 districts and KMT already said that they will continue to honor that and will treat these  TPP candidates just like KMT candidates in terms of organization, rallies, and support.

So the KMT pretty much wants to squeeze Ko where it hurts, his lack of GOTV organization even as they want to project a friendly attitude toward TPP on legislative races.

In some marginal urban seats, the KMT candidate would benefit from Ko's support.  Most likely what those candidates would do is to do private deals with the Ko campaign where the two camps would "accidentally" meet while doing street-by-street campaigning.  But in the meantime the KMT high command is clear: No Ko at KMT rallies.

Hou could always win...
Lai could not really sleepwalk this race.

KMT should try to win a majority on his own.
Teach Huang and those TPP hawks a lesson that they should never attempt to outmanuever KMT.

[peterthlee]

Ettoday poll - KMT Hou rises at the expense of TPP Ko (change from 2 weeks ago)

DPP Lai              34.8 (-0.1)
KMT Hou            32.5 (+5.2)
TPP Ko               21.2 (-4.8 )


Crosstabs show that KMT Hou's rise is mostly about consolidation of the KMT vote.  In a reversal of historical trends, DPP is stronger with the women vote.



PR vote - KMT gains from DPP
KMT                 34.8 (+3.0)
DPP                  28.8 (-2.5)
TPP                  15.8  (+0.6)



District vote - DPP loses some ground
KMT                33.9 (+0.7)
DPP                 28.9 (-2.7)
TPP                 13.8 (-0.2 )

Wow. If Hou can hold the trend, he actually has a shot.

Lai could not continue sleepwalking.

[jaichind]

KMT VP candidate Chao was a rising star in the KMT as early as 1981.  He is considered by DPP Prez Chen as the most formidable of his political rivals.  In 1981 both Chao (for KMT) and Chen (anti-KMT opposition) were elected to the Taipei City assembly and spent the next decade battling each other in the City assembly and then in the legislature.  Chao broke with the KMT in 1993 formed NP and ran against DPP Chen in the 1994 Taipei mayor election in a 3-way race with the KMT incumbent.   The split of the Pan-Blue vote allowed Chen to win and propelled his eventual campaign for ROC Prez in 2000.  Chao became less active in direct politics and focused on being a media personality.  After KMT Prez Lee and the KMT broke up in 2001 Chao de facto became aligned with the KMT again and was a key part of the KMT election campaigns after 2008.

DPP Prez Chen has said on several occasions that Chao was his most formidable rival and that had the Pan-Blue forces done a better job with tactical voting and Chao won 1994 the race for Taipei Mayor then Chao would have gone on to become ROC Prez in 2000 as opposed to himself.

[Octowakandi]

Why would a KMT TPPP legislative majority mean Speaker Han? Why is he popular with TPP.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko, Pro-KMT Guo, KMT Prez Ma, KMT Hou, KMT Chairperson Chu press conference between the final showdown meeting to come.

Now only was a large number of people on ROC watching this meeting and then the press conference livestream it seems a much larger number of people in the PRC also watching this farce livestream as well. 

[jaichind]

Why would a KMT TPPP legislative majority mean Speaker Han? Why is he popular with TPP.

He sort of is in the sense that Han and Ko have good relations in the past and Han does have some appeal to many of the former Pan-Blue voters that have since shifted to TPP.  But that is not the reason why he will become Speaker if KMT-TPP gets as majority.  It comes down to he has the number one spot on the KMT PR list and is really heading the entire KMT legislative race.  In many ways, one can read the KMT campaign as a Hou-Chao-Han ticket.  So if he leads the KMT to at the minimum deny the DPP a legislative majority then he is expected to get credit for it and with TPP support become Speaker.

[Octowakandi]

Why would a KMT TPPP legislative majority mean Speaker Han? Why is he popular with TPP.

He sort of is in the sense that Han and Ko have good relations in the past and Han does have some appeal to many of the former Pan-Blue voters that have since shifted to TPP.  But that is not the reason why he will become Speaker if KMT-TPP gets as majority.  It comes down to he has the number one spot on the KMT PR list and is really heading the entire KMT legislative race.  In many ways, one can read the KMT campaign as a Hou-Chao-Han ticket.  So if he leads the KMT to at the minimum deny the DPP a legislative majority then he is expected to get credit for it and with TPP support become Speaker.

Is it a particularly powerful job? What’s the point of the Speaker when there’s a PM?

[jaichind]

It is clear that the DPP's strategy to counter KMT VP candidate Chao's impact on the race is to target the Light Blue vote by pointing out the Deep Blue background of Chao.  The DPP will say that the Hou-Chao ticket is really a Chao-Hou ticket where Hou will become a puppet of Chao.  Look for DPP to produce all sorts of "evidence" of PRC funding for various pro-Chao groups.

[jaichind]

Why would a KMT TPPP legislative majority mean Speaker Han? Why is he popular with TPP.

He sort of is in the sense that Han and Ko have good relations in the past and Han does have some appeal to many of the former Pan-Blue voters that have since shifted to TPP.  But that is not the reason why he will become Speaker if KMT-TPP gets as majority.  It comes down to he has the number one spot on the KMT PR list and is really heading the entire KMT legislative race.  In many ways, one can read the KMT campaign as a Hou-Chao-Han ticket.  So if he leads the KMT to at the minimum deny the DPP a legislative majority then he is expected to get credit for it and with TPP support become Speaker.

Is it a particularly powerful job? What’s the point of the Speaker when there’s a PM?

ROC Speaker's power is mostly about calling a vote and working out deals.  No legislation can really get passed without the Speaker's OK. PM is really a bad translation. It is really more like the Premier or Head of the Executive Branch.  On paper ROC Prez is not powerful but Premier is very powerful.  ROC Prez is powerful because he or she can get to appoint the Premier and is often the head of the ruling party.

[jaichind]

KMT candidate 葉元之(Yeh Yuan-Chih) in New Taipei City 7th has been one of the more aggressive advocates of the KMT-TPP alliance and has jumped the gun and last week already started to put up billboards with himself and both Hou and Ko and positioning himself as a joint KMT-TPP candidate. He is an underdog in his district where there is a sizable TPP vote and will only have a chance of the KMT-TPP vote consolidating behind him.



Now that KMT-TPP talks failed he has to rush this weekend to paint over the Ko part of the billboard and replace it with a painting of KMT VP candidate Chao.

[Octowakandi]

Interesting how the KMT awarded both Han and Chu, two big election losers, to pretty powerful and important positions in the KMT. Party looks out for its own, I suppose?

[jaichind]

In the remaining 50 days of the campaign, there will be two phases.

First phase: KMT and DPP both use Blue-Green cleavage issues (War/Peace, relationship with PRC and USA) to drive Light Blue and Light Green supporters back to their respective camps.  TPP fighting to prevent this by raising issues of anti-incumbency like corruption and economic issues.

Second Phase:  KMT going on the offensive on anti-incumbency issues to drive DPP support down with the hope that TPP has been driven low enough that KMT and not TPP would benefit from anti-incumbency with DPP playing defense to keep its lead mostly by the continuation of Blue-Gren cleavage issues.  TPP will also continue its push for anti-incumbency issues but will also raise political reform to distinguish itself from KMT to get a bigger slice of the anti-incumbency vote.

So in the first phase in many ways, the KMT and DPP will be ganging up to marginalize TPP while in the second the KMT and TPP will jointly attack DPP. 

The DPP view is that they are more vulnerable to TPP on anti-incumbency issues so it is better they work with KMT to marginalize TPP in the first phase to reduce risk.  The KMT knows this too but the risk of TPP is too great.  The main "problem" of DPP's approach is that it is too conservative and all defensive.  This means that the DPP is not producing a narrative on why it should stay in power.  They risk discovering in Jan 2024 that anti-incumbency is worse than they thought and be defeated in a wave even if they execute their strategy correctly.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TPOF poll on party ID which is very youth-heavy lean has a surge in TPP support putting them into a 3 way tie with KMT and DPP

TPP        25.3 (+8.3)
KMT       24.8 (-1.7)
DPP       24.5 (-2.6)
NPP         2.9 (+0.1)
TSP         1.0 (-1.2)


This is the opposite trend of other polls.

The Formasa Times poll will start coming out in a couple of days as they recalibrate the question around having the VP included in the question.  The way the owner of the Formosa Times poll talks about it their result sounds like

DPP  Lai      33
KMT Hou     32
TPP Ko        21

which would match the Ettoday poll.

TVBS will come out with their poll soon and hopefully so does UDN.  Both TVBS and UDN have Blue leans they do seem to take into account the youth vote better than Formosa Times which has a Green lean but does not take the youth vote into account as well.

I would say that in a high turnout election, TVBS is more accurate but one needs to take into account the Blue lean and in a low turnout election Formosa Times is more accurate but one needs to take into account the Green lean.

[jaichind]

Interesting how the KMT awarded both Han and Chu, two big election losers, to pretty powerful and important positions in the KMT. Party looks out for its own, I suppose?

KMT is mostly a confederation of local kingpins loosely bonded together with a wide spectrum/variation of Chinese nationalism and shared local interests.  As a result, tenure counts for a lot in the KMT organization hierarchy.  So experienced leaders are respected even if they did not deliver good results in the past.  Han is actually popular with the KMT core.  I suspect if the KMT ran Han-Hou this time it would be a 50/50 race with DPP Lai as opposed to an uphill struggle.  Just like in 2020 had the KMT run Hou-Han then they would still have lost but would have closed the margin significantly against DPP Tsai.  Different candidates work better in different years and the KMT keeps on getting it wrong.

[jaichind]

The entire premise that the TPP Ko camping is likely to go into decline is it lacks the resources for rallies which are the core of GOTV efforts outside of dense urban areas.  These rallies number from 5K to 50K people and toward the end of the campaign there are going to be mega rallies that might go up to 50K people.  Even small rallies cost around at least $300K to organize.  These rallies could be organized by the party, the campaign itself, or by a local legislative candidate.

One of the reasons why Ko wants to endorse KMT legislative candidates and then attend their rallies is that he can show his face and get a free ride at a rally that will be paid for mostly by the KMT legislative candidate.  

There is the video link of a Hou-Chao campaign rally to kick off their campaign in Tainan.  This one is fairly small and most likely has something like 15K people.
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0

The video starts with all the chairs being empty and people starting to arrive to attend
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=30

Then about an hour into people taking their time to arrive various local KMT or pro-KMT politicians (mostly MLAs) take turns speaking to the crowd for about 40 minutes
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=3427

Then some entertainment followed by some downtime for another 30 minutes
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=6019

Then KMT Hou, KMT VP candidate Chao, and KMT Chairperson Chu arrive.  They take their time walking up to the stage to greet the rally attendees which takes about 20 minutes
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=8230

After several more Tainan KMT heavyweight politicians speak, KMT Chairperson Chu speaks
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=9164

Then KMT VP candidate Chao speaks
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=9624

Then KMT Hou speaks
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=10010

Then the KMT heavyweights leave
https://youtu.be/8uRyPFvcAF0?t=11047

The KMT heavyweights spent around 50 minutes at this rally but got 3 hours of mobilization out of it.

The KMT and DPP rallies are going to be similar and they will get bigger and bigger over time.  KMT and DPP heavyweights will also attend legislative candidates' rallies which will also add to the GOTV mobilization efforts.

[jaichind]

Seats where the KMT will not run but will back a non-KMT candidate:

New Taipei 2nd: Green+7: KMT will back the TPP candidate
Taichung 1st: Green+1: KMT will back the TPP candidate.  The DPP incumbent is very strong.  The TPP candidate is a current TPP PR MP and was very close to Ko
Tainan 2nd: Green+17: KMT will back a DPP rebel who is a DPP rebel MLA
Tainan 4th: Green+9: KMT will back a KMT candidate running as an independent since he had a record of corruption in the past and is not allowed to run as a KMT candidate
Kaoshiung 1st: Green+9: KMT will back the TPP candidate
Miaoli 1st: Blue+6: KMT will back the KMT incumbent running as independent due to outstanding corruption charges
Jiayi 2nd: Green+7: KMT will back a former DPP MP who has since broken with DPP.  KMT backed the same DPP rebel in 2020 who outperformed
Pingdong 2nd: Green+10: KMT will back the son of the DPP incumbent who broke with the DPP by not nominating his son.


Seats where DPP will back a non-DPP candidate:

Taipei 6th: Blue+10: DPP will back a SDP MLA running as SDP.  This SDP MLA is one of the first openly LGBT candidate to win office back in 2018
Taoyuan 6th: Blue+8: DPP will back a KMT rebel who won in 2016 and 2020 as a DPP-backed independent.  In 2016 and 2020 this KMT rebel was able to merge his personal pro-KMT vote with the DPP vote to beat the official KMT candidate
Miaoli 2nd: Blue+17: DPP will back a former NPP MLA who is also the boyfriend of a current DPP MP in Taipei.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll now VP candidates are clear.  KMT Hou gains ground (change from Oct)

DPP Lai         34 (--)
KMT Hou       31 (+5)
TPP Ko          23 (-6)




PR vote poll has KMT and DPP gaining ground from TPP and undecides
KMT           32 (+7)
DPP            28 (+5)
TPP            18 (-2)
NPP              3(+1)

If TPP Ko decided not to go through with the KMT-TPP alliance deal due to fear that it would hit the TPP PR vote it seems that hit took place anyway.

[jaichind]

Pro-Deep Blue Chinatimes poll has KMT Hou and DPP Lai in a virtual tie

DPP Lai             28.3
KMT Hou           28.2
TPP Ko              24.3

PR Vote
KMT                 31.9
DPP                  24.7
TPP                  19.5


The Chinatimes editorial position is a fairly good view into the PRC position given how aligned the business group Chinatimes belongs to interests are on the PRC with the PRC government.     Historically, starting in 2018, become fairly pro-Ko in addition to its historical pro-KMT position.  It seems the PRC always viewed Ko as someone who could pull youth opinion into being for a dovish position in the PRC.  The collapse of the KMT-TPP talks seems to have turned Chinatimes against Ko which most likely reflects the PRC position.  KMT Hou picking Deep Blue Chao as his running mate most likely played a role as well.

The Chinatimes poll has been historically friendly toward Ko and I think this house bias will stay for a while with its Blue lean has always been there and will stay.

[jaichind]

Mnews poll.  This is a fairly new media pollster so its track record is short although a recent change in management last year has this media outfit being fairly pro-DPP so any house effects should be in favor of DPP.

Prez poll has KMT Hou gaining ground from TPP Ko

DPP Lai         30.5
KMT Hou       28.7
TPP Ko          22.1


Breakdown by gender shows the Ko relative edge with men getting bigger and the traditional Blue edge with women finally showing up.  It seems the part of the Pan-Blue vote that went from TPP Ko to KMT Hou was mostly women.


Breakdown by age is not a surprise.  KMT Hou is strong with older votes and TPP Ko is very strong with youth votes.  KMT Hou is especially strong in the 50-70 age group that came of age in the 1960s-1990s economic boom which the KMT does get credit for.   DPP Lai is weakest with middle-aged voters who are likely economic voters and prefer a good relationship with the PRC for economic benefits.  The implication is clear.  KMT Hou wants a very low turnout (youth does not turn out), TPP Ko wants a very high turnout (marginal youth turnout in full force), and DPP Lai wants somewhere in between where enough youth voters turn out to give him a greater edge over KMT Hou while TPP Ko's support is under control.



Legislative district generic vote - TPP makes gains which reflects that KMT legislative district candidates do lose ground in a situation where the KMT-TPP alliance falls apart.  The KMT legislative candidates have to hope for anti-DPP tactical voting at the end.
KMT          31.7
DPP          26.4
TPP           13.4



PR vote - DPP NPP and TSP lose ground which is mostly due to them being shut out of media coverage. There will be a reversion to the mean in the coming weeks.  I think DPP is behind KMT in the PR vote but not by this margin.
KMT         34.0
DPP          25.3
TPP          18.7
NPP           1.0
TSP           0.8

[jaichind]

CNEWS poll.  This pollster has historically had a DPP bias but also had a very pro-Ko bias this entire cycle.  But even their poll has a KMT Hou surge at the expense of TPP Ko.

They have two models.  A traditional one and one that weighs cell phones much more (which is youth-heavy).  One can read the traditional poll as one that is CW while the cell phone-heavy model assumes a youth turnout surge.

The traditional model for Prez vote
DPP Lai           39.9
KMT Hou         29.7
TPP Ko            18.9


Cell phone heavy model for Prez vote
DPP Lai            36.8
TPP Ko             26.8
KMT Hou          26.6



The traditional model for  PR vote
KMT                30.1   - 14 seats
DPP                 29.7  - 13 seats
TPP                 16.2   -   7 seats
NPP                   3.1
TSP                   2.5
The seat count here matches my current guess exactly



Cell phone heavy model for PR vote
DPP                27.6  - 13 seats
KMT               26.5  - 11 seats
TPP                22.7  - 10 seats
NPP                 3.5
TSP                 2.3

[jaichind]

The only big polls that have nothing out yet are Formsa Times, UDN, and Newtalk.

The trend so far is clear.  KMT Hou has clearly gained at the expense of TPP Ko over the last couple of weeks.

Another fact is also clear, both DPP Lai and TPP Ko are running ahead of the DPP and TPP PR votes while KMT Hou is running behind the KMT PR vote.  Look for the KMT Hou campaign to turn this election into a partisan election.  It seems if the Prez vote merely matches the PR vote then KMT Hou is in a good position to win.

[jaichind]

Old Guard radical Taiwan Independence 台灣獨立建國聯盟(World United Formosans for Independence) poll

DPP Lai            31.4
TPP Ko             27.3
KMT Hou          26.6


This result seems suspiciously like the ideal situation for DPP where TPP Ko Light Blue voters are told not to defect since TPP Ko has a chance to win and KMT Hou voters are told not to defect to TPP Ko since KMT Hou also is not far behind which basically freezes the race.




Their poll also shows the energy of Taiwan Independence has clearly declined since 2021.  The 2019-2020 HK protests pushed the intensity of Taiwan Independence to its peak in 2021 but has fallen off since and even a pro-Taiwan Independence poll has picked it up.  All changes are from 2021.

Goal
Taiwan Independence (ASAP or eventually)            39.6 (-9.2)
Status Quo                                                          44.3 (+5.2)
Unification (ASAP or eventually)                            12.2 (+3.4)

Identity
Taiwanese only - hardcore Taiwan Independence reject ROC  30.7 (-9.8 )
Taiwanese but also ROC - Mostly Two China                         36.7 (+5.8 )
ROC only - Two China but can support unification                 24.6 (+1.9)
Chinese only - hardcore unification                                       6.0 (+1.7)

This poll is worded where the word "Chinese" maps to "Citizen of PRC" so only the most hardcore unificationists (like myself) would choose that option.  Two China and soft Unification views and park their views in this poll under ROC.

The PRC had a hard choice in 2019-2020 with respect to HK protests.  The 2017-2018 period has seen a surge of pro-PRC movement in ROC public opinion.  A hardline position would lose any chance of getting the support of Light Green and even Light Blue voters on ROC.  But to get any credit with Light Green ROC voters the PRC would have to cave to protests which would be a no-go given their own PRC public opinion.  So they went with the hardline position on the premise that the PRC brand will be negative for a significant period on ROC but can slowly recover over time.  This poll does show some recovery and reversion to the mean.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So Jaichind do you think that DPP Lai ultimately pulls it off?

[jaichind]

So Jaichind do you think that DPP Lai ultimately pulls it off?

Yes.  If I had to pick now DPP Lai still wins with hung legislature and KMT largest party over DPP by a small margin.