2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

So they continue on holding the suspense. What would be the endgame?

It is a game of chicken.  Neither KMT Hou nor TPP Ko have declared a VP candidate or started the process of registration.   There is no way KMT will accept Hou as the VP candidate of Ko so it comes down to what other concessions can TPP Ko get out of KMT before accepting a Hou-Ko ticket.  And if the conditions are not good enough Ko will run separately. 

[jaichind]

2 days left to register and no signs of deal between KMT Hou and TPP Ko.  DPP Lai-Hsiao registered already.  Neither Hou nor Ko has announced VP candidates so both sides still hold some hope of a deal.  TPP Ko's hand is getting weaker.  It seems pro-KMT Guo has rejected a Ko-Guo ticket and insist on a Gou-Ko ticket.  Various KMT factions in the South that has gone over to Guo earlier this year have gone back to the KMT which also limits the value of a Ko-Guo deal for Ko.

At this stage for TPP Ko, he has been damaged by this KMT-TPP deal followed by a flipflop, he has to figure out which choice is less bad.

Latest Formosa Times poll has both KMT Hou and TPP Ko gaining

3-way
DPP Lai          31.8
KMT Hou        29.6
TPP Ko           27.1

4-way
DPP Lai          30.4
KMT Hou        27.2
TPP Ko           22.9
pro-KMT Guo    5.5



Formosa Times has a Green lean but at this stage polling will underestimate Lai.  People being polled think that they might be polled for a KMT-TPP "primary" so even lean Lai voter might pick Hou or Ko given who he or she favors between the two.  This polls seems accurate given these two factors cancel each other out although it most likely underestimate DPP Lai by a couple of points.

[jaichind]

With less than 24 hours left before registration, it seems there is going to be a KMT Hou-TPP Ko-Guo summit to try to work out something.  Both former KMT Ma and pro-KMT Guo seem to be involved in getting this last-minute summit going so any deal will most likely involve pro-KMT Guo.  The game of chicken reaches the final stage.

The latest Formosa Times poll has KMT Hou closing in on DPP Lai some more (change from yesterday)

3-way
DPP Lai           31.5(-0.3)
KMT Hou         30.1(+0.5)
TPP Ko            26.7(-0.4)

4-way
DPP Lai           29.9 (-0.5)
KMT Hou         27.9(+0.7)
TPP Ko            23.1(+0.2)
pro-KMT Guo    5.0 (-0.5)

Note that both KMT Hou and TPP Ko are overestimated since people polled might think this is a poll for a KMT-TPP primary so marginal DPP Lai voters might vote for either KMT Hou or TPP Ko based on why they prefer on a relative basis. Of course, this poll has a DPP leam so the two factors most likely cancel each other out.

The same poll asks "KMT-TPP fail on reaching a deal, who is to blame?"

TPP           26.0
KMT          17.3
Both          20.0

Which means the KMT is mostly winning the PR war against TPP as the game of chicken proceeds

[jaichind]

Confirmed that at 4:30PM ROC time KMT Hou, TPP Ko, pro-KMT Guo and former KMT Ma will meet to hammer out a deal.  The meeting is positioned as KMT Ma and pro-KMT Guo brokering Pan-Blue opposition unity ticket which sort of implies that Guo has de facto admitted that he will not run (sort of).  So it comes down to if it is going to be Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou.  I figure it is Hou-Ko or no deal and what price will Hou pay to get Ko to be his VP and Guo to back such a united opposition front.  If the price is too high then no deal and it will be a 3-way or 4-way race.

This entire KMT-TPP unity talks episode over the few months should be a case study in game theory in future history books.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko, Pro-KMT Guo, KMT Prez Ma, KMT Hou, KMT Chairperson Chu press conference between the final showdown meeting to come.

[jaichind]

Talks over.  No deal.  At this stage KMT Hou and TPP Ko will announce their VP candidates and register tomorrow.  It does not seem pro-KMT Guo will run or become the VP candidate of TPP Ko.   In the end TPP Ko had to make a call on which would push up the TPP PR vote.  If Ko ran as KMT Hou's VP candidate then the hawk TPP vote would not come out.  If Ko ran on his own the chances of him winning would not be high so the marginal TPP vote will not come out.

All in all TPP Ko lost ground in these failed KMT-TPP talks which mostly to consolidate the KMT vote behind KMT Hou.  That is not enough for KMT Hou to win but enough to ensure TPP Ko to lose.

If Guo does not run then there is a chance that DPP Lai can be defeated.  At this stage that can only be KMT Hou.   Without an alliance with Guo, TPP Ko will not have the resources to run the GOTV organization to win the election.  At best he can try to push up the TPP PR vote with his Prez run.

Right now I figured it will be

DPP Lai      39
KMT Hou    34
TPP Ko       27

I cannot see how DPP Lai can be below 37, I cannot see how KMT Hou can be below 30 and I cannot see how TPP Ko can be above 30.

Chances of winning
DPP Lai      75
KMT Hou    24
TPP Ko         1

[jaichind]

It seems at the final failed summit KMT Hou outmaneuvered  TPP Ko.  It was sort of clear at the press conference before the meeting got started that it was going to fail. 

At the press conference KMT Hou asked TPP Ko if it is OK for KMT Hou to read aloud TPP Ko's text for him to set up this meeting.   TPP Ko said it was fine.  So KMT Hou then read "Let all three of us meet in public.  That would produce a good image of opposition unity   Also Guo needs an excuse to drop out of the race so lets give him that face to help save his image"   Reading that in from of Guo was very embarrassing for both TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo.  TPP Ko got really upset when KMT Hou read that text.  It seems TPP Ko forgot his text included that part about Guo.  This exchange pretty much killed any chances of a deal which was mostly gone anyway.  Worst for TPP Ko this exchange kills any chance of TPP Ko getting Guo's money and support, not that was likely anyway unless Ko agrees to a Guo-Ko ticket.

[jaichind]

Registration is tomorrow.  TPP Ko's dilemma.  If he wants to run a serious campaign it will cost $50 million.   Looks like pro-KMT Guo is out and will not give TPP Ko any cash.  And even if he can raise that money he has to win or TPP will be stuck with this massive debt for years to come.  Even tomorrow there is some chance he might not even run and just focus on the TPP PR vote.  He could also take a last-minute deal with KMT and run as KMT Hou's VP although given the various flip-flops last couple of weeks I think the KMT is done with any possible deal with him.  He can try running for real or do a nominal run but in the latter case he will get 8% of the vote and it de facto becomes a two-way race between DPP Lai and KMT Hou.

The KMT hardline position stems from their knowledge of Ko's dilemma.

[jaichind]

Guo not running PLUS playing an active role in trying to get to a KMT-TPP deal (even if it fails) will gain him credit with the PRC which can only enhance his business position on the PRC.  Look for Foxconn stock to surge tomorrow.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko registers with TPP MP 吳欣盈(Cynthia Wu) as his running mate.  She is the scion of the powerful (新光集團) Shin Kong Group.  TPP Ko's motivation seems to be about funding.


KMT Hou registers with former KMT rising superstar of the 1980s and NP founder and now media personality 趙少康(Chao Shao-Kang).  KMT Hou's motivation seems to be about consolidating the KMT vote to prevent any KMT vote shift to Ko.  Hou-Chao's ticket will be weak with the youth but KMT Hou must be hoping that TPP Ko takes that vote from DPP Lai giving him a chance to close the gap with DPP Lai.


Guo, as expected, drops out.

[jaichind]

The latest Formosa Times 3-way poll has DPP Lai and KMT Hou in a virtual tie.  I suspect with all 3 tickets locked in there will be a reversion to the mean next week in polling with DPP Lai with a significant edge again as the media coverage focus changes to cover the DPP Lai campaign.

[jaichind]

The the legislative races, while there are about a dozen seats where the KMT and TPP candidates are running against each other, all things equal both KMT and TPP camps will de facto back each other where possible in seats they are not contesting.  KMT is backing TPP in 3 seats and not running a candidate while TPP Ko said he will be glad to do rallies for KMT legislative candidates in seats where TPP is not running.

For now, it seems both KMT and TPP camps are not attacking each other and promise to focus their energy on attacking DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

TPP VP candidate and current TPP MP 吳欣盈(Cynthia Wu) was married to someone from another scion of a powerful financial group but got divorced a few years back.  She married a Dutch man a year back and just gave birth to her first and likely only child at age 45.  The fact her husband is a foreigner and if Ko wins she will be in the line of succession for ROC Prez might become an issue in the campaign.

[peterthlee]

The latest Formosa Times 3-way poll has DPP Lai and KMT Hou in a virtual tie.  I suspect with all 3 tickets locked in there will be a reversion to the mean next week in polling with DPP Lai with a significant edge again as the media coverage focus changes to cover the DPP Lai campaign.

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

[jaichind]

Even as a long-time strong supporter of 趙少康(Chao Shao-Kang) over the years, I want to call him out on intellectual dishonesty.  

As a media commentator this election cycle, he was a strong supporter of a KMT-TPP alliance and had publically said on his show that if KMT Hou and TPP Ko ran separately then there would be no chance of defeating DPP Lai.  I always disagreed with that.  I always felt that in a 4-way race, he is right but in a 3-way race, I figured there is a 20%-25% chance of DPP Lai losing as Chao is underestimating anti-DPP anti-incumbency and the possibility of a TPP Ko eating deep into the DPP youth vote.

Now Chao is the KMT VP candidate his narrative of the race is similar to mine.  Namely, it is an uphill race but DPP Lai is beatable.  I am happy he agrees with me but it just seems he is changing his tune once he is part of the KMT campaign.

[jaichind]

KMT strategy.  Back in 2020 KMT Han won 38.6% and PFP Soong won 4.3% while the KMT PR vote was 33.4%  So KMT wants to get the KMT Han and KMT PR vote from 2020.  KMT hopes that as Light Blue KMT Hou can appeal to the 2020 PFP vote but accept that his vote might need to be split with TPP. This will place KMT in a solid second place and then hope for a combination of anti-DPP tactical voting and/or TPP Ko eating into the DPP and light Green youth vote.
The main problem for the KMT is that KMT Hou had a hard problem appealing to the 2020 KMT Han vote due to the fact that KMT Hou failed to campaign hard for KMT Han back in 2020.  The KMT strategy is to a) Get Han to head up the 2024 PR list and b) Get Chao to be the VP candidate as Chao can appeal to the core KMT vote.
The KMT is mostly giving up on the youth vote by having Chao as the VP candidate.  KMT's hope is that a) Youth surge of 2020 will fall off and/or b) TPP Ko will eat up most of the youth vote which denies that vote from DPP unlike 2020.

TPP strategy is a mostly hoping for a youth surge plus the KMT strategy failing so TPP Ko can win the anti-DPP tactical vote.

[jaichind]

My back of the envelope of guess on PR vote

                      Guess                              2020
Deep Blue          1.2% (NP 0.7%)       2.2% (NP 1.0%)
KMT                 34.9%                     33.4%
Light Blue           1.2% (PFP 1.0%)     4.2% (PFP 3.7%)
TPP                  18.9%                     11.2%
Light Green        5.4% (NPP 2.8%)    10.3% (NPP 7.8%) 
DPP                 34.3%                      34.0%
Deep Green        4.1% (TSP 3.4%)     4.8% (TSP 3.2%)

In theory the map of the vote would be

DPP Lai (DPP+Deep Green)                     -> 38.4%
TPP Ko  (TPP + Light Blue + Light Green) -> 25.5%
KMT Hou (KMT+Deep Blue)                     -> 36.1%

The election will be decided by
a) How much of the KMT PR vote would defect to TPP Ko
b) How much of the Light Green vote and TPP Ko really win and not lose to DPP Lai

For KMT Hou to have a chance the need TPP Ko to win the Light Green vote.  But TPP Ko winning the Light Green vote also means it is harder to get a TPP Ko collapse to trigger anti-DPP tactical voting in favor of KMT Hou.

[jaichind]

In theory DPP VP candidate 蕭美琴(Hsiao Bi-khim) does not add much to the DPP Lai vote beyond consolidation of the core DPP vote.  She is there as a representative of USA and DPP Prez Tsai interests to keep a DPP Lai administration under control  and not pursue a dangerous Taiwan Independence route.   But in the current context she will help DPP Lai shore up the DPP feminist vote.  There has been a whole series of sex scandals from the DPP ranks.  Some of the DPP PR  vote will drift to some minor Light Green parties including one that is explicitly feminist with a risk that their vote might go to TPP Ko.  Having Hsiao on the ticket might not stop the drift of the PR vote but most likely will prevent DPP feminist vote from drifting toward TPP Ko.

[jaichind]

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

At this stage I do not think Huang realistically thinks that Ko will win.  Her calculation is that if Ko runs then TPP PR vote will be better and it is likely that she will lead a TPP legislative caucus that will hold the balance of power.  In that situation Huang will most likely do a deal with the KMT for her to be Deputy Speaker.  The balance of power within the TPP will shift from Ko to her.  In a KMT-TPP joint ticket Ko will be VP with the power to appoint a bunch of TPP ministers and will be much more powerful than Huang within the party.  Huang's power can be seen by the TPP PR list.  Most of them are aligned with Huang.

[peterthlee]

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

At this stage I do not think Huang realistically thinks that Ko will win.  Her calculation is that if Ko runs then TPP PR vote will be better and it is likely that she will lead a TPP legislative caucus that will hold the balance of power.  In that situation Huang will most likely do a deal with the KMT for her to be Deputy Speaker.  The balance of power within the TPP will shift from Ko to her.  In a KMT-TPP joint ticket Ko will be VP with the power to appoint a bunch of TPP ministers and will be much more powerful than Huang within the party.  Huang's power can be seen by the TPP PR list.  Most of them are aligned with Huang.

A Taipei city councillor has larger sphere of influence than a two-term ex-Taipei mayor who (i) won in a landslide against KMT in 2014 and (ii) won with both KMT and DPP fielding their candidates in 2018.

What a party.

[peterthlee]

It seems chances of Ko being sidelined is still in place.
If Lai could only got 40 percent, then Hou has a decent shot.
We could not write off this election to the opposition yet.
Ko could not beat KMT's GOTV.
That's why Ko is desperate and could accept a deal that literally rule himself out as the presidential candidate.
But the TPP hawks, like Huang Shanshan (who had her polls inflated to first place in a youth heavy poll only to fell down to an embarrassing third place), only cared for their future and negated the concrete regime change desire.
Those TPP hawks are going to pull down TPP off the cliff regardless of who wins.

At this stage I do not think Huang realistically thinks that Ko will win.  Her calculation is that if Ko runs then TPP PR vote will be better and it is likely that she will lead a TPP legislative caucus that will hold the balance of power.  In that situation Huang will most likely do a deal with the KMT for her to be Deputy Speaker.  The balance of power within the TPP will shift from Ko to her.  In a KMT-TPP joint ticket Ko will be VP with the power to appoint a bunch of TPP ministers and will be much more powerful than Huang within the party.  Huang's power can be seen by the TPP PR list.  Most of them are aligned with Huang.

Is KMT-TPP still heading towards an absolute majority in the legislature?

This means Han Kuo-yu is gonna be the speaker of the legislature...

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll - KMT Hou rises at the expense of TPP Ko (change from 2 weeks ago)

DPP Lai              34.8 (-0.1)
KMT Hou            32.5 (+5.2)
TPP Ko               21.2 (-4.8 )


Crosstabs show that KMT Hou's rise is mostly about consolidation of the KMT vote.  In a reversal of historical trends, DPP is stronger with the women vote.



PR vote - KMT gains from DPP
KMT                 34.8 (+3.0)
DPP                  28.8 (-2.5)
TPP                  15.8  (+0.6)



District vote - DPP loses some ground
KMT                33.9 (+0.7)
DPP                 28.9 (-2.7)
TPP                 13.8 (-0.2 )

[Octowakandi]

Hou can still win. Seems like a far as Ko still running, that happened the best way possible to give Hou still a chance outside of Ko running with him.

[jaichind]

A Taipei city councillor has larger sphere of influence than a two-term ex-Taipei mayor who (i) won in a landslide against KMT in 2014 and (ii) won with both KMT and DPP fielding their candidates in 2018.

What a party.

Various media sources talked to TPP operatives after the fact.  It seems last week Ko did have the goal of being the VP candidate for KMT Hou.  What made him flip-flop was TPP surveys showing that if it is is Hou-Ko ticket then some hardliner TPP voters will not come out and it potentially cost a couple of TPP PR seats.  I think Huang could not accept that since in a KMT-TPP alliance, it is somewhat likely that KMT and its allies win a majority on their own in the legislature and her power as Deputy Speaker will be weaker vis-a-vis KMT, especially with fewer MPs in the TPP caucus.

Huang actually has a Deep Blue background and was part of the pro-Unificationist NP back in the late 1990s.  She was actually recruited by now KMT VP candidate Chao to join politics.  Later on, she joined PFP and during the KMT-PFP alliance in 2007-2008 wanted to run lost a primary to become a KMT-backed candidate.  PFP-based was eaten up by that alliance during the 2008 Ma landslide and it seems Huang became a hardliner against any deals with the KMT be it when she was in PFP or now TPP.  That break shifted her position to Light Blue.  In 2016 she actually became close to DPP Tsai for a while and Tsai brokered a deal for DPP to back Huang on a PFP ticket to take on the KMT in her district in a losing effort.  That experience furthered her drift to anti-KMT Light Blue.

[jaichind]

Is KMT-TPP still heading towards an absolute majority in the legislature?

This means Han Kuo-yu is gonna be the speaker of the legislature...

It looks that way.  If a KMT-TPP alliance was formed then KMT plus pro-KMT independents would win a majority on its own.  That is still possible but less likely.  But a DPP majority seems very unlikely which means Han most likely becomes Speaker.

Even after the deal broke up Ko said that he wanted to campaign for and appear at rallies for KMT legislative candidates.  The KMT said they would not allow this.  This is because what Ko really wants to do is to use KMT rallies for their legislative candidates to increase his grassroots activities.  The TPP campaign does not have the funds for such GOTV rallies.   

The KMT is backing TPP candidates in 3 districts and KMT already said that they will continue to honor that and will treat these  TPP candidates just like KMT candidates in terms of organization, rallies, and support.

So the KMT pretty much wants to squeeze Ko where it hurts, his lack of GOTV organization even as they want to project a friendly attitude toward TPP on legislative races.

In some marginal urban seats, the KMT candidate would benefit from Ko's support.  Most likely what those candidates would do is to do private deals with the Ko campaign where the two camps would "accidentally" meet while doing street-by-street campaigning.  But in the meantime the KMT high command is clear: No Ko at KMT rallies.