2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

Mirrormedia poll on open seat Taipei 5th (Blue +3) where a TPP-backed Pan-Blue independent is cutting into the KMT vote and maybe letting in the DPP candidate.

In 2020 it was
DPP backed independent    44.9    (NPP background)
KMT                                  41.9    (former incumbent)
TPP backed KMT rebel        12.2

Poll
DPP                                  30.1
KMT                                  27.3
TPP backed independent     24.3 (pro-KMT media personality, was PFP spokesperson in 2020)

The KMT primary was quite contentious and the KMT is divided in this district and it is clear that part of the KMT vote here is going over to the TPP-backed independent     


By gender.  KMT candidate overperforms with women even though the two non-KMT candidates are women and he is not


By age.  This follows the trend of KMT being stronger with older voters and TPP-backed independents stronger with youth voters.


By education. Follows the national trend with  TPP-backed independents stronger with higher education voters


PR vote
KMT         36.5
DPP          27.6
TPP          19.3

Just like the Prez election, the KMT candidate underperforms the KMT PR vote while the DPP and TPP-backed independent overperforms DPP and TPP PR votes.  This makes more sense since the TPP-backed independent has historical ties to the Pan-Blue camp and was expected to eat into the KMT vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/us-senator-plans-china-sanctions-from-hell-for-a-taiwan-attack

"US Senator Plans China Sanctions ‘From Hell’ for a Taiwan Attack"

Given how sanctions worked against Russia since 2022 I would not think this is much of a threat.  Not that I suggest the PRC should do anything.  I always thought of Chinese reunification as a late 2030s thing.  The PRC can afford to wait this out and let the change in the correlation of forces move further in its favor.

[jaichind]

Youth and cell-heavy Quickseek poll has a solid DPP Lai lead and KMT Hou and TPP Ko neck-to-neck for second place.  Change from its August poll

DPP Lai   32.5 (-3.3)
KMT Hou 27.2 (+9.3)
TPP Ko    26.7 (-2.9)

The regional and demographic breakdowns seem consistent with other polls.  This poll does seem to have Green lean with a significantly larger DPP vs KMT sample plus much higher youth weight.


The change relative to their August poll seems consistent with other polls but their calibration seems to be very youth-heavy.  This poll looks a lot like TPP internals so I think if there is a large youth turnout relative to older and middle-aged voters then I can see this being the result.  I just think their turnout assumptions are not realistic.

[jaichind]

Former TPP General Secretary 謝立功(Hsieh Li-kung) who is one of the few TPP leaders with his own mass base expressed skepticism at TPP PR list head 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan)'s internal TPP polls showing that TPP Ko is in second place and that TPP is poised to win 11 PR seats in a sign of open infighting within the TPP.

He said that if TPP Ko does not come in at least second and TPP does not win at least 8 seats then Huang should step down as MP.

謝立功(Hsieh Li-Kung) was the KMT candidate for mayor of Keelung in 2014 and 2018 in a losing effort during a DPP wave in 2014 and a popular DPP incumbent in 2018.  Not being considered to get the KMT nomination for mayor of Keelung in 2022 led him to join TPP in 2020 and was made by Ko to be TPP General Secretary from 2020 to 2022.  He was going to run as the TPP candidate for MP in Keelung until KMT Ko made the call to not run a candidate there and de facto back the KMT candidate.

It seems his remarks reflect anger in the pro-KMT faction of TPP against what they felt was 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan)'s moves to sabotage KMT-TPP unity talks and as a result the TPP electoral prospects have become worse as a result.  It is possible that if TPP underperforms Hsieh might make a move to take over TPP and try to move it in a pro-KMT direction.  It is also possible Hsieh might defect back to KMT.

[jaichind]

One controversy from the first Prez debate involves the pro-DPP 民視(Formosa Television) YouTube live stream.  It seems on the 民視(Formosa Television) YouTube livestream of the debate there was a 44-second period when TPP Ko was speaking about his plan for reducing the cost of housing for the youth that the live stream cut into an ad. 

TPP held a press conference to complain about this and the head of the Formosa Television internet unit arrived uninvited and gave a rambling speech with pretty much blamed Youtube for this saying that their live stream on Facebook was find and did not have this 44-second gap. 

It seems this will turn into another he said she said type of situation with neither side accepting the arguments of the other side.

[jaichind]

KMT Hou speaks in Hoklo a lot more than DPP Lai and TPP Ko.  If you go by what dialect each candidate is using you would think that Hou is the DPP candidate, certainly by 1990s and 2000s standards.

KMT Hou is trying to target light-green older voters which was the whole purpose of nominating KMT Hou in the first place until the race became a 3-way race earlier this year.

In a truly ironic twist, various pro-DPP youth internet circles continue to complain that they do not know Hoklo well and could not understand what KMT Hou was saying in the debate.  This is ironic because the DPP of the 1990s was all about the normalization of the Hoklo dialect with a de facto Hoklo identity.

The fact that urban pro-DPP youth could not understand Hoklo speaks a lot about the churn I talked about in terms of alignment by education with a relative shift of the DPP base toward those with higher education since 2016.   People with higher education tend to be Mandarin only while people with lower education tend to be Hoklo/Mandarin.   DPP Perz Tsai also normalized Mandarin within the DPP.  DPP Prez Tsai is famously bad at speaking Hoklo and her Hoklo speeches at rallies are so cringe that she usually switches back to Mandarin after a few minutes.

During the debate, DPP Lai spoke completely in Mandarin which represents his campaign trying to battle TPP Ko over the urban higher-educated youth.

[jaichind]

To prove the contrast between himself and DPP Lai on the issue of "violation of zoning laws", TPP Ko arranged for the land he owns that is zoned as farmland but in practice a parking lot to be cleared of buses that were parked there to prepare the way for the removal of the pavement so it can be used as farmland as specified by the zoning laws.

Picture of Ko's land Tuesday
 


Picture of the same lot on Wed.


I think there is still some funny business here.  When asked about paying taxes on this parking lot Ko produced a tax receipt for land tax but did not prove that he paid taxes on the income earned from the parking lot.  I am sure the DPP will jump on that soon enough.

[jaichind]

Another problem with DPP Lai's "illegal" house on the property of his childhood home.  It seems that even though this house ownership was transferred to DPP Lai's son back in 2010 and DPP Lai pretty much never visits or lives in this house there is a permanent ROC military police guard house with military police stationed right next to this house.  In theory, this is for the protection of the ROC VP Lai but in practice, this makes no sense since DPP Lai rarely visits this house and never lives there during his 4 years as VP.



After this information came out the memes as well as the KMT/TPP attacks increased so yesterday it seems this ROC military police station right next to this "illegal" house was torn down


In many ways tearing down this station is the worst of all worlds.  The DPP administration is now admitting that this station was never necessary for the safety of ROC VP Lai so the decision to create such a station was never justified and most likely politically motivated.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Mirrormedia poll on open seat Taipei 5th (Blue +3) where a TPP-backed Pan-Blue independent is cutting into the KMT vote and maybe letting in the DPP candidate.

-snip-

By gender.  KMT candidate overperforms with women even though the two non-KMT candidates are women and he is not


By age.  This follows the trend of KMT being stronger with older voters and TPP-backed independents stronger with youth voters.


By education. Follows the national trend with  TPP-backed independents stronger with higher education voters

The educational divide is more linear in this legislative poll, and is closer to what we see in the US. In order of decreasing DPP margin: Postgrad > bachelors > trade school/vocational. High school grads are more DPP than postgrads though.

Has the KMT historically led with postgrads and women during the post-Cold War era? I understand why postgrads would have historically favored the KMT (with physicians and healthcare workers in general possibly being an exception). I also wonder why men would be more likely to vote third-party than women.

Since 2000 KMT always led with women.  I agree with you on postgrads which would lean toward DPP but in the 2000-2016 era, KMT was stronger with higher-educated voters (college grads) which did reverse post-2016.

Why exactly does Taiwan has a "reverse" (by Western standards) gender gap, where women favor the center-right party and men favor the center-left one?

[jaichind]

Why exactly does Taiwan has a "reverse" (by Western standards) gender gap, where women favor the center-right party and men favor the center-left one?

ROC women voters are rational-transactional-economic oriented while ROC men voters tend to be more emotional.  ROC women tend to back KMT's policy of non-confrontation with the PRC while ROC men tend to back DPP's policy of principled confrontation with the PRC.

[jaichind]

Gallup poll has the Prez race at a virtual tie

DPP Lai       31.01
KMT Hou     30.94
TPP Ko        18.12


Party support (note this is not PR vote although it is a good proxy for PR)
KMT           25.76
DPP            22.86
TPP            11.93
NPP              0.75

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll post-debate - 1.4 DPP Lai lead, TPP Ko gains the most relative to the pre-debate poll

DPP Lai         36.2 (+0.3)
KMT Hou       34.8 (+0.1)
TPP Ko           20.7 (+1.1)



Crosstabs seems to indicate that TPP Ko gains are from youth voters adding to his very large lead there already


PR vote (change from 2 weeks ago) - Big TPP gain - it seems TPP Ko's vote is consolidating behind the TPP PR vote.  NP gains a bit from KMT while TPP gains from all other smaller parties
KMT        33.2 (-1.2)
DPP        32.2 (--)
TPP         16.0 (+4.0)
NPP          1.6 (-0.6)
TSP          1.5 (-1.0)
NP            0.9(+0.5)
PFP           0.5(-0.7)

[jaichind]

VP Debate.  As expected KMT's Chao won in technique and performance.

It was not a fair fight. Chao has been in media for 20+ years and had over a decade of political experience before that.  Both DPP's Hsiao and TPP Wu are not that well versed in policy and have a clear language disadvantage.  Both Hsiao and Wu spoke only in Mandarin and frankly spoke it poorly.  Both spoke Mandarin like me, someone who can speak it but spoke it in a way where it it clear that I spent decades in the USA.     Chao used both Mandarin and Hoklo effectively and was effective in his attacks.  I get why Wu cannot speak Hoklo but Hsiao's father pretty much spoke only Hoklo and did not speak Mandarin well so I am surprised that Hsiao did not try to speak in Hoklo.

Chao praised Hsiao on her performance as ROC envoy to the USA and said that a KMT Hou-Chao administration will continue to use her in that capacity.

The main loser of the debate was Hsiao. As I pointed out before about how Hsiao looked old for her age (mostly due to her being half Cacuducsian versus pure Oriental), and even the pro-DPP youth internet crowd complained about how old she looked and dressed.  In their minds, she came off as a fuddy-duddy and looked old even when compared to Chao who is over 20 years older than Hsiao.




The good news for the DPP is that this debate does not matter that much.   Chao is able to help consolidate the KMT vote but he sort of did that already by being on the ticket.  So the net effect of this debate is fairly small.

[jaichind]

TVBS post-Prez debate poll.  DPP Lai's lead down to 1 mostly by losing ground to TPP Ko

Change is versus the poll 2 weeks ago.

DPP Lai     33 (-3)
KMT Hou   32 (--)
TPP Ko      24 (+2)



Crosstabs

                 Total        Men       Women
DPP Lai       33           32           34
KMT Hou     32           31           33
TPP Ko        24           30           15
It seems TPP Ko is eating into the lean-DPP young men while taking older pro-KMT women erasing the KMT-DPP gender gap along the way


                 Total      20s       30s      40s      50s     60+
DPP Lai       33         24        27        35       29       40
KMT Hou     32         13        18        28       51       38
TPP Ko        24         56        48        29       12        3
Same age gap as before.  TPP Ko gains more ground with youth vote vis-a-vis DPP Lai


                 Total     Junior High   High School   Technical   College     Graduate
DPP Lai        33             44             34               23           28               27
KMT Hou      32             28             35               49           26               30
TPP Ko         24               3             22               19           40               39
Much as expected given recent trends

Note undecided voters lean toward older, low-education voters.   This is while KMT Hou spoke Hoklo so much during the Prez debates.  He is trying to target this group and let DPP Lai and TPP Ko fight over the youth vote.


Approval/Disapproval
DPP Lai       36(-2)/43(+2)
KMT Hou     34(+1)/39(-4)
TPP Ko        32(--)/46(-3)
 
Note that this shift in approval/disapproval is strategically good for KMT Hou from a final end-of-election tactical voting shift basis.  In theory, TPP Ko going to 24 is bad for KMT Hou getting the tactical vote but his improvement vis-a-vis DPP Lai on approval/disapprovals means he will get an edge on the tactical voting split.


PR vote  - mostly status quo
KMT         32 (--)
DPP         30 (+1)
TPP         18 (--)
NPP           4(---)

[jaichind]

DPP campaign going after TPP Ko and his "illegal" parking lot now seems to make more sense given these recent public polls.   The recent tightening in the polls seems to be about some of DPP Lai's youth vote going over TPP Ko over his "illegal" house issues.  So DPP has to try to muddy TP Ko on this topic as well.  Strategically all this works to the advantage of KMT Hou since now both DPP Lai and TPP Ko look bad on that topic.

[jaichind]

TPP KP media post Prez debate poll

DPP Lai      30.3(-1.2)
TPP Ko       26.7 (-0.5)
KMT Hou    25.2 (-0.6)


The DPP leaked internal has it at
DPP Lai     37.8
KMT Hou   29.5
TPP Ko      26.8

The TPP and DPP internals are similar in that they both have TPP at a much higher level than other public polls.  Of course, both DPP and TPP have a strategic imperative to prevent TPP->KMT tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll - DPP Lai lead fairly steady at 3.5-4 range

DPP Lai    37.3
KMT Hou  33.4
TPP Ko     17.7



Will vote for the opposition candidate who is polling the highest
Yes       42.9
No        48.2

This number is a proxy for the cap of the KMT Hou vote in case of last-minute tactical voting.  It is surging to its highest level yet.  In that sense, this index is positive for KMT Hou.  This number has to be around 44 or higher for KMT Hou to have a chance.

[jaichind]

The way to look at TVBS poll is that they lean Blue but also overweight cell/youth.  These two factors tend to cancel each other out in terms of DPP and KMT support but will overestimate TPP.

The way to look at Formosa Times polls is that they lean Green but also underweight cell/youth.  These two factors tend to cancel each other out for KMT but will overestimate DPP and underestimate TPP.

[jaichind]

The shift of the college-educated on ROC from lean KMT to lean DPP around the 2016 period is related to the nature of the PRC technology position shift upward in the last 30 years.

PRC used to be far behind ROC in terms of industrial technology level so the higher educated on ROC benefit from economic integration while those with low education lose in such a process.  But by the mid to late 2010s, the PRC's surge upward in the technology ladder shifted so the PRC and ROC were competing head to head in the advanced industry so the college-educated ROC losses by ROC economic integration with ROC.  This dynamic is the driver of the change in voting behavior on the ROC.

The ROK-PRC trade balance tells the same story.  Until the mid-2010s the ROK would provide key high-tech parts for PRC industrial production which would drive a high PRC trade deficit against the ROK.  This started to change in the mid-2010s when the PRC industry moved upstream to eventually compete head-to-head with the ROK which led to a dramatic fall in the trade deficit PRC against the ROK.


The same dynamic should be in play between the PRC and ROC but for political reasons, the PRC has de facto terms, allowing ROC to put up trade barriers against advanced PRC products against WTO rules.   As a result the PRC still has a large trade deficit with ROC.   If DPP Lai wins I think the PRC will pretty much go to the WTO and force ROC to remove these import barriers or lose access to the PRC market and the ROC trade surplus with PRC will come crashing down just like PRC-ROK trade balance.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3245816/mainland-china-suspends-tariff-cuts-12-taiwanese-imports-january-response-discriminatory-measures

"Mainland China sends ‘early warning’ ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election by suspending tariff cuts"

If DPP Lai wins then I suspect the entire EFCA framework will be removed by the PRC and the ROC trade surplus from PRC will mostly disappear just like the ROK trade surplus with PRC.

[jaichind]

DPP Lai's "illegal" house issue is turning into a meme

Various ROC map apps now have this house named 賴皮寮 or "Shameless shack"
The word for shameless "賴皮" starts with the word "賴" or DPP Lai's last name

Online everyone is referring to this "illegal" house as 賴皮寮 or "Shameless shack"

The core issue here is one of crisis management.  If when this story broke a couple of months ago DPP Lai just said "yes, this house violates zoning laws.  We will tears down the house and pay back taxes owned on this house" that would been the end of it.  But DPP Lai insisted the the house is legal and then started an entire sympathy campaign about how this house represented his memories of his dead father who died the same year DPP Lai was born.  Of course that logic makes no sense since this current house was built in 2003 when DPP Lai was already MP.

[jaichind]

Wikipedia normalized polling curve

DPP Lai   40.5
KMT Hou 38.0
TPP Ko    21.5

Most Southern underground punters seem to have breakeven at DPP Lai +4%-5%.  Southern underground punters tend to overestimate the incumbent, especially the DPP by a couple of points so the two data points are fairly consistent. 

[jaichind]

It seems this Bloomberg interview of DPP Lai from August was done in the now famous "illegal" house AKA 賴皮寮 or "Shameless Shack"

https://youtu.be/FkI9OMs7tWY

Here is some pro-DPP media video talking about the interview  showing the Bloomberg reporter entering into 賴皮寮 or "Shameless Shack" and talking to DPP Lai in the courtyard outside the house

https://youtu.be/eo9Z73KH3k8
https://youtu.be/YKNKaHeVT-0

A look inside the house seems to blow up DPP Lai's narrative that this house has sentimental value to him as it reminded him of his deceased father who died in a mining accident the year he was born and the poverty he experienced growing up.  

His personal experience is real but this re-built house that was built in 2003 seems nothing like a house of the struggling household of family of a deceased miner.

If I had to guess what this is really about is Feng Sui.  In Chinese folklore beliefs, one's birthplace and the burial place of one's parents are critical to maintain in a special way to ensure career success.  I think that is the real reason why DPP Lai does not want to tear down this "illegal" house and his insistence that it is all nice and legal when facts indicate that it is a clear violation of zoning laws.

Separately, note the ROC flag in the background.  DPP Lai has internalized DPP Prez Tsai's new moderate line of the DPP to embrace ROC and move the DPP to an anti-PRC Two China position versus the old "One China, One Taiwan" position.  That is not how DPP Lai feels inside but it seems he has accepted that line as an imperative for winning the election and keeping the USA (and to some extent PRC) from freaking out.

[jaichind]

Formosa Times poll:

What if at the end of the campaign, TPP Ko acts in a way to say that he cannot win and de facto endorses (note it is illegal for a candidate to try to endorse another candidate once the campaign has started) DPP Lai?  How would you vote?
DPP Lai      40.0
KMT Hou    37.9
TPP Ko        6.5


What if at the end of the campaign, TPP Ko acts in a way to say that he cannot win and de facto endorses KMT Hou?  How would you vote?
KMT Hou    40.7
DPP Lai      38.2
TPP Ko        6.5

Frankly, the first scenario is impossible but the second scenario is. 

I think how the second scenario might play out is:
Guo starts to campaign for KMT legislative candidates in early Jan (which seems to be his plan).  In the last week of the campaign, TPP Ko's main talking point is the need to defeat DPP and spends all his time campaigning to push up the TPP PR vote.    A couple of days before the election Guo endorses KMT Hou.  TPP mayor of Hsinchu 高虹安(Ann Kao)  who is really aligned with Guo (Guo "loaned" her to TPP as part of his de facto alliance with Ko)  starts to campaign for KMT legislative candidates and joins Guo in events that de endorses KMT Hou.  These actions are a signal to the TPP base that TPP Ko wants them to vote for KMT Hou while voting TPP on the PR slate.

If such a scenario plays out I would think KMT Hou would then be favored to defeat DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

In the DPP Lai interview with Bloomberg back in August he actually makes comparisons of ROC to Ukraine and the DPP administration to Zelensky.  I think that is about the last time the DPP has mentioned Ukraine given the slow slide to defeat there.  It is now the KMT and TPP that talks about Ukraine from time to time more to say "please vote out DPP, do not turn ROC into the disaster that is Ukraine today"

[jaichind]

Youth heavy CNEWS poll on Blue +3 Taipei 4th district.   The rising DPP superstar 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) headed for landslide defeat by the former KMT MP 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu) in the battle of 3 women.

Back in 2020, maverick light green DPP MLA 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) rode the DPP Prez Tsai wave to win this seat.
DPP    50.1  (高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu))
KMT   47.4  (incuumbant 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu))

高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) was always a DPP renegade who was close to Ko and TPP.    She won over a lot of TPP PR and light Blue votes to win here in 2020.  At a personal level she is close to Lai and fairly negative on DPP Prez Tsai (there is a thing in the DPP where women politicians tend not to like each other) Her plan for re-election in 2024 was the replicate her 2020 coalition.

The Deep Green in this district is furious with Kao's maverick position a despite attempts to head this off part of the Deep Green DPP in the district will support the TSP candidate (who herself just missed being elected MLA back in 2022.)    Kao's response is to try to get DPP Lai (who is close to her despite their ideological differences) to campaign for her.

The CNEWS poll has it at
KMT    50.1
DPP     24.9
TSP     10.9

The crosstabs show that Kao's strategy backfired as 25% of the DPP vote is still going to the TSP candidate but Lee sweeps the KMT vote and beats Kao with TPP voters 43-29.  It seems the TPP vote here got turned off by Kao going to get DPP Lai for support.  So in the end Kao lost on both fronts.  She lost the part of the core DPP vote to TSP and lost the TPP vote to Lee.




In terms of party support, this district has fairly strong TPP numbers although the caveat is that CNEWS is fairly youth/cell heavy and will overestimate TPP support

KMT   36.8
DPP    24.8
TPP    20.2
TSP      1.8
NPP      0.6
Clear gender gap where KMT is strong with women and TPP is stronger with men.   TPP is stronger with youth and KMT is stronger with older voters.  TPP is strong with those with college degrees but very weak with those without college degrees.


In terms of the Prez vote it is
KMT Hou    41.0
DPP Lai      28.5
TPP Ko       19.2
which is pretty good for KMT Hou given that this district is Blue +3.  KMT's Lee has a very strong personal vote here.  I suspect KMT Hou's overperformance might be some reverse coattails.