2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

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Also:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1601273838871859200?s=20&t=dAO3wtSQ3...

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Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district.

Bill G. is the son who just won a State Rep race in Midland, not the former AG who lost to Whitmer in 2018.

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Appears to be the first non-higher office seeking retirement of the cycle.

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1628394901191680003?s=20

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Fun fact time! Cook literally only got one seat wrong in 2022: WA-3, where Perez beat Kent. They had that seat as Leans R; no other seat that they predicted as Leans or Likely went for the other party. (This might mean that they're way too conservative with their tossups. Races that Cook called a 'Tossup' broke pretty hard Democratic in 2022, 25-11. OTOH, this compares extremely favorably to 2020 when Republicans swept every race Cook labelled a Tossup, 27-0, along with winning 5 Leans D seats and a Likely D; you have to contend with them having learned earlier lessons.)

In general, Tossups normally break towards one party or another; they basically never split down the middle.

easy to only get one wrong when they had like nearly 40 seats as tossups

To be fair, they were correct about that too!

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https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1643965941959610368?s=20

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I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

Some ambassadorships are from the civil service, usually people that have worked in diplomacy for years. Others are direct political appointees.

Ambassadorships are frequently traded in exchange for political favors and especially major donations as they generate little press attention and are generally easy to confirm in the Senate even when the opposition party is in the majority. Elizabeth Warren made bucking this tradition a central part of her anti-corruption platform in 2020 but it didn't gain much traction.

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Very impressive numbers in a highly cost-prohibitive district.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1666454093148069893?s=20

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

Kean barely won last year, and 2024 will be a presidential year - not sure why he's seen as so strong?

Yes Kean is beatable, but against Altman he should have no trouble being re-elected.

There's of course no reason to believe that Altman is a juggernaut per se, but dismissing out of hand one of the few people to successfully take on the Norcross New Jersey machine (many have tried) is at best premature and at worst nonsensical.

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

Kean barely won last year, and 2024 will be a presidential year - not sure why he's seen as so strong?

Yes Kean is beatable, but against Altman he should have no trouble being re-elected.

There's of course no reason to believe that Altman is a juggernaut per se, but dismissing out of hand one of the few people to successfully take on the Norcross New Jersey machine (many have tried) is at best premature and at worst nonsensical.

OK. Yes, Altman can win but Kean is very much favored right now.

No reason to believe a Republican in a Biden-won district that is stampeding left and located entirely within the nation's most expensive media market is very much favored.

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1670878202225389574?cxt=HHwWjMCzqem3k7AuAAA...

Gross

What’s wrong with him? It’s not like he stands a chance against Menendez with NJ’s corrupt machine line politics.

You sure? He was held to 62-38 against a complete rando in 2018. I wouldn't say its completely hopeless.

This was indeed a drastic overperformance and Menendez should theoretically be even weaker today than he was then, but the amount of money you need to compete against an incumbent with the double whammy of the NJ county lines and the New York/Philly media markets is a close to impossible hurdle. Rooting for him, though, and will likely support him.

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This was indeed a drastic overperformance and Menendez should theoretically be even weaker today than he was then, but the amount of money you need to compete against an incumbent with the double whammy of the NJ county lines and the New York/Philly media markets is a close to impossible hurdle. Rooting for him, though, and will likely support him.

I wonder if those markets are the reason Jersey's called a "machine state." I don't know of any particular unions that can decide elections and primaries, at least not to the extent that Nevada has.

It's more the county line that drives machine-backed candidates to perpetual victory - but the cost-prohibitiveness of mass communication makes overcoming the county line virtually impossible, so they work in tandem. New Jersey also has strikingly low turnout in primaries and state-level general elections held in the odd years (something that, like the county line/cost of media, is caused by a one-two punch of intentional and unintentional structural choices) that further acts as a hurdle to come-from-behind victories.

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It's that time of year again...post-4th of July off-year Congressional announcement time.

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1676558769751195654?s=20

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https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1676619448810086402?s=20

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https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1681255506084503554?s=20

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Flew under the radar yesterday, but Dems appear to be making a serious run at Huizenga.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1681774682297565185?s=20

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https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

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Expect to see Democrats try to meddle in this primary.

https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/1687843401637453824?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1688556098041659392?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1691879205099721104?s=20

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Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860

Both are incredibly popular - Cava probably just runs for Gimenez's open seat instead.

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https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1699361808975355945?s=20

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https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1703825425493856485?s=20

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News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

I think it definitely helped Salazar in FL and Hinson in IA

Eric Sorensen in IL was a TV meteorologist and a certain someone who shall not be named probably wouldn’t have come as close as she did in AZ if she hadn’t been a longtime TV anchor.

Ronchetti in New Mexico was also a meteorologist and overperformed statewide twice. The longtime mayor of Oklahoma City who narrowly lost the gubernatorial primary was also a prominent news anchor before his political career, and the current mayor of Jacksonville FL who was elected earlier this year in a modest upset was as well. Others include Rebecca Kleefisch, Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky, Dan Patrick, and (believe it or not) Sarah Palin.