2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 10:48:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 43740 times)
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: February 02, 2023, 12:20:07 PM »

Seems mostly reasonable? I think the Senate numbers are a bit overconfident for Democrats, but not egregious, and in the House I would mostly just have extremely minor nitpicks (I would flip Kean Jr. and Bacon, and I would flip Landsman and Kaptur; probably a few more if I sat down and thought about it). In general, it seems a little over-indexed on 2022 and a little under-indexed on 2020, but that in itself is a defensible choice.

These ratings are kind of a hot mess, it seems like Cook learned nothing from 2022.

Fun fact time! Cook literally only got one seat wrong in 2022: WA-3, where Perez beat Kent. They had that seat as Leans R; no other seat that they predicted as Leans or Likely went for the other party. (This might mean that they're way too conservative with their tossups. Races that Cook called a 'Tossup' broke pretty hard Democratic in 2022, 25-11. OTOH, this compares extremely favorably to 2020 when Republicans swept every race Cook labelled a Tossup, 27-0, along with winning 5 Leans D seats and a Likely D; you have to contend with them having learned earlier lessons.)

In general, Tossups normally break towards one party or another; they basically never split down the middle.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2023, 05:04:11 PM »



Fun fact: this guy was reelected to the state Senate in 2022 by 10 votes.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,634
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2024, 01:52:29 PM »

It's an understudied phenomenon that officially nonpartisan elections (of which the Nebraska legislature is just one example) tend to return significantly more liberal/Democratic-associated candidates than partisan elections do. Like, it's primarily for this reason that Nebraska's state government is much more moderate than it 'should' be.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 11 queries.