California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[EastwoodS]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

What’s more important than making sure that republicans In your state have a voice for senator. I thought yall were about Democracy?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

What’s more important than making sure that republicans In your state have a voice for senator. I thought yall were about Democracy?

The above is a really stupid comment.  The senatorial election had multiple Republicans on the ballot.  Republican voters had ample opportunity to vote for their preferred candidate.  If Schiff had not run ads for Garvey, there would have been nothing "anti-democratic" about him not doing so.

Now, one can argue that the top-2 system is itself somewhat anti-democratic because of the possibility of a lockout, and I think there's something to that argument.  It's something that potentially can (and in fact has) hurt both parties.  If a jurisdiction is going to use this kind of primary system, then the top-4 system that Alaska uses is better because it pretty much ensures that both parties will have at least one candidate advance to the general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is gonna win by 5/7 pts and Biden is gonna win CA 55/45

[DrScholl]

I had a huge problem with Schiff boosting Garvey because had a Republican been locked out of the top two it could have possible lowered GOP turnout down ballot and made it easier to win House seats. Some things are more important than having an easy time winning your own race. Schiff would have still be favored against another Democrat.

What’s more important than making sure that republicans In your state have a voice for senator. I thought yall were about Democracy?

Republicans had plenty of choices on the ballot. It's not undemocratic if their choice doesn't make the top two, it's just what happens sometimes. My concern is electing those who will protect democracy, not Republicans being guaranteed a spot in the top two (which legally they aren't even entitled to).

[wbrocks67]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

[Sir Mohamed]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

Yup, though that would require Garvey to run ahead of Trump by a few points. I think that will be the case, just not sure whether it's more than 1-2 pts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be that close Schiff is gonna win 5/7 pts Garvey only did well on a split vote

[Tekken_Guy]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

Yup, though that would require Garvey to run ahead of Trump by a few points. I think that will be the case, just not sure whether it's more than 1-2 pts.

That is dependent on how well Trump does in the first place.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Will Garvey beat Schiff in Orange County in November?

[President Johnson]

Will Garvey beat Schiff in Orange County in November?

I could see it, honestly, though Biden will win Orange County.

[kwabbit]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

It'll go from 16.3 to 21 or so back to 19, if it follows the same pattern as last year.

Counties completely in so far are Kings and El Dorado, according to NYT. Kings is Valadao's home turf.

Kings:

2020 Pres: Trump +12.3
2022 Gov: Dahle +30.2
2024 Sen: GOP +32.7
2022 House Primary (CD 13): GOP +26
2022 House General (CD13): Valadao +12
2024 House Primary (CD13): GOP +24

El Dorado:

2020 Pres: Trump +8.8
2022 Gov: Dahle +22.1
2024 Sen: GOP +16.4

From this, ballpark is D +19/20 in the end. Valadao might be a little weaker, given the primary margin slippage. El Dorado doesn't look that great for the GOP either.

[Agafin]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

It'll go from 16.3 to 21 or so back to 19, if it follows the same pattern as last year.

Counties completely in so far are Kings and El Dorado, according to NYT. Kings is Valadao's home turf.

Kings:

2020 Pres: Trump +12.3
2022 Gov: Dahle +30.2
2024 Sen: GOP +32.7
2022 House Primary (CD 13): GOP +26
2022 House General (CD13): Valadao +12
2024 House Primary (CD13): GOP +24

El Dorado:

2020 Pres: Trump +8.8
2022 Gov: Dahle +22.1
2024 Sen: GOP +16.4

From this, ballpark is D +19/20 in the end. Valadao might be a little weaker, given the primary margin slippage. El Dorado doesn't look that great for the GOP either.

Hmm so Dahle actually had a pretty great performance.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)

We'll see where it goes from here; I don't think it's as foreseen that it goes back down for Ds, but we'll see. It seems like the turnout may have been a bit underestimated; LA County for example has kept revising its total for a couple days now as more come in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)

We'll see where it goes from here; I don't think it's as foreseen that it goes back down for Ds, but we'll see. It seems like the turnout may have been a bit underestimated; LA County for example has kept revising its total for a couple days now as more come in

Schiff will win 52/45 by 5/7 points over all

[Mr. Smith]

Didn't expect Santa Cruz to flip in the Special at all.

[Minnesota Mike]

Didn't expect Santa Cruz to flip in the Special at all.

Something is pretty obviously wrong with Schiff's total in the special in Santa Cruz. He is getting 44% for the full term and only 22% in the special. There are also 13,000 less votes in the special than for the full term. And just to be clear the results page shows Porter leading the special not Garvey.

[kwabbit]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

It'll go from 16.3 to 21 or so back to 19, if it follows the same pattern as last year.

Counties completely in so far are Kings and El Dorado, according to NYT. Kings is Valadao's home turf.

Kings:

2020 Pres: Trump +12.3
2022 Gov: Dahle +30.2
2024 Sen: GOP +32.7
2022 House Primary (CD 13): GOP +26
2022 House General (CD13): Valadao +12
2024 House Primary (CD13): GOP +24

El Dorado:

2020 Pres: Trump +8.8
2022 Gov: Dahle +22.1
2024 Sen: GOP +16.4

From this, ballpark is D +19/20 in the end. Valadao might be a little weaker, given the primary margin slippage. El Dorado doesn't look that great for the GOP either.

Hmm so Dahle actually had a pretty great performance.

Newsom just has middling popularity. I don't know Dahle's reputation, but he seems pretty generic and is from a from a forgotten part of the state, so I doubt he was why it was only D+18 statewide.

[Mr. Smith]

Didn't expect Santa Cruz to flip in the Special at all.

Something is pretty obviously wrong with Schiff's total in the special in Santa Cruz. He is getting 44% for the full term and only 22% in the special. There are also 13,000 less votes in the special than for the full term. And just to be clear the results page shows Porter leading the special not Garvey.

Ah, that makes more sense.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

We're about half way counted in CA and the makeup of the Senate race is

D 57.3%
R 41.0%
Other 1.7%

From what I remember, I think it will oscillate a bit between a blue mirage and red mirage at this point after the in-persons were redder, but I feel like the last few cycles have been a bit confusing and all over the place in their trajectory compared to long ago, so who knows.

Just an awful performance by Porter and Lee though.

~53% in now, I think yesterday morning it was at like 47 or 48%. Slight inch up for Ds:

57.5% D
40.8% R
1.7% Other

~58% in now; so far a mini-blue shift. We've gone from D+16.3 to D+17.5 so far

D 57.9%
R 40.4%
Other 1.7%

It'll go from 16.3 to 21 or so back to 19, if it follows the same pattern as last year.

Counties completely in so far are Kings and El Dorado, according to NYT. Kings is Valadao's home turf.

Kings:

2020 Pres: Trump +12.3
2022 Gov: Dahle +30.2
2024 Sen: GOP +32.7
2022 House Primary (CD 13): GOP +26
2022 House General (CD13): Valadao +12
2024 House Primary (CD13): GOP +24

El Dorado:

2020 Pres: Trump +8.8
2022 Gov: Dahle +22.1
2024 Sen: GOP +16.4

From this, ballpark is D +19/20 in the end. Valadao might be a little weaker, given the primary margin slippage. El Dorado doesn't look that great for the GOP either.

Hmm so Dahle actually had a pretty great performance.

Newsom just has middling popularity. I don't know Dahle's reputation, but he seems pretty generic and is from a from a forgotten part of the state, so I doubt he was why it was only D+18 statewide.

Dahle is the state senator for the district (SD-1) with El Dorado County, though Dahle is from 150 miles to the north (big district). As a side note, Dahle beat Kevin Kiley (effectively the more local candidate) in the 2019 special election for the seat. That state senate district covers most of the northeastern part of the state, basically part of what people were trying to make into the state of Jefferson. So, there could be a bit of a bonus, but hard for me to say how much.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)

For comparison, final D share was 58.1% in 2022-GOV.

[Annatar]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)

For comparison, final D share was 58.1% in 2022-GOV.

And the final R share was 34% in the primary, so it was a 58.1 - 34 result, +24.1D in the CA 2022 Governor primary.

[Agafin]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

Probably a tabulation error.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)

For comparison, final D share was 58.1% in 2022-GOV.

And the final R share was 34% in the primary, so it was a 58.1 - 34 result, +24.1D in the CA 2022 Governor primary.

Eh, not doing a direct D-R comparison for that one since a few Independent candidates were much more prominent in some of those races than this year.

[Agafin]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

Probably a tabulation error.

A pretty blatant tabulation error going on for days without being corrected would be quite embarassing.