2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have a reason why GOP turnout doubled this year in the HI primary? Its about ~60k this year compared to ~30k in 2018. Was 2018 just a terrible year there for them (is the closer to ~60k closer to the normal, with 2018 being an anomaly?) or were GOPers there excited to turn out for some reason?

Now you have gone and done it, the usual suspects will soon be spinning this into a sure sign of a national red wave.

FWIW a turnout of 60K still really sucks especially since Democratic turnout was 3.5X larger. The bigger question is why was Democratic turnout so good? The Dem primary turnout nearly matched the number of votes Ige got in the 2018 general. It was 85% of what Hillary got in 2016.

Ha, you're right. And yeah, the primary looks to have nearly as many votes on the Dem side as the 2018 general, which was obv a blue wave year, so that is certainly interesting as well.

I think that continues the trend of Democrats having pretty solid turnout despite the fact that there are not many competitive races. Also kinda proves that both bases are fired up, not just one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's preview of Alaska & Wyoming: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-cheney-and-murkowski-survive-their-trump-backed-primary-challenges/

[windjammer]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

[wbrocks67]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

[GeorgiaModerate]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

There's an outside chance.  I would be surprised if it happened, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result we've ever seen.

[Senator Incitatus]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

There's an outside chance.  I would be surprised if it happened, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result we've ever seen.

Crazy how much more common Begich-Peltola-Palin appears to be than Palin-Peltola-Begich. It's not like Begich is a moderate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

There's an outside chance.  I would be surprised if it happened, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result we've ever seen.

Crazy how much more common Begich-Peltola-Palin appears to be than Palin-Peltola-Begich. It's not like Begich is a moderate.

Yeah, but Palin has near universal Name ID, is a rather controversial figure even in Alaska, and the Begich family are a very well-known, multi-generational, popular Democratic political family in Alaska.  I guarantee some folks think Begich is a moderate Democrat or at least more reasonable than he actually is just b/c of his last name.  Again though, the big thing is that Palin has near-universal Name ID and a lot of it is negative at this point.  There was a reason she opted not to run for re-election in 2010.

[Utah Neolib]

So with 99% in for the Senate race, the vote is -

Dems 55.4%
Reps 41.4%

D+14

Not sure how Rs still think Smiley has a chance here.

What was the combined congressional primary vote?

I'm not going to put in the effort to figure it out for you but knock yourself out.

https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/federal-all.html

FWIW I expect total congressional vote is skewed more Republican because it's pretty obvious a lot of Dems voted for JHB in WA-03 and probably for Newhouse in WA-04.

Thanks.

Calculated it:
Non D total vote (senate and house): 46.5054450046%
Total D vote (senate and house): 53.4945549954%

Interesting results. I can tell that it’s skewed more Republican because of WA-03 and WA-04.

Follow up post:
Just R total vote (senate and house, without third parties): 42.767245932674%

This may be a more accurate indicator than R+third parties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So with 99% in for the Senate race, the vote is -

Dems 55.4%
Reps 41.4%

D+14

Not sure how Rs still think Smiley has a chance here.

What was the combined congressional primary vote?

I'm not going to put in the effort to figure it out for you but knock yourself out.

https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20220802/federal-all.html

FWIW I expect total congressional vote is skewed more Republican because it's pretty obvious a lot of Dems voted for JHB in WA-03 and probably for Newhouse in WA-04.

Thanks.

Calculated it:
Non D total vote (senate and house): 46.5054450046%
Total D vote (senate and house): 53.4945549954%

Interesting results. I can tell that it’s skewed more Republican because of WA-03 and WA-04.

Follow up post:
Just R total vote (senate and house, without third parties): 42.767245932674%

This may be a more accurate indicator than R+third parties.

Unless there were a few trillion votes, twelve decimal places seems a wee bit excessive.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alaska Schedule:

The state will report its first results online at 1 a.m. Eastern time and update them throughout the night, said Gail Fenumiai, director of the state’s Division of Elections.

But the initial results will reflect only votes cast in person on Tuesday and those cast at early-voting centers, Mr. Ohlemacher noted. Additional results are scheduled to be released on Aug. 23, Aug. 26 and Aug. 31, he said.

In Alaska, absentee ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday but have until Aug. 26 to be received at state election offices.

Further complicating the timing of results is the introduction of ranked-choice voting in general elections in Alaska. The system will be used in the special House race to fill the seat of Representative Don Young, a Republican who died in March, for the remainder of his term that ends in January.

Voters will rank their choices in the special election. If no candidate receives a majority, officials will eliminate the last-place finisher and reallocate his or her supporters’ votes to their second choices until one candidate has at least 50 percent of the votes.

Only first-choice votes will be released on election night, with the full results not released until Aug. 31, according to The A.P.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/16/us/elections/results-alaska.html

Contested Races:

WY-AL D
WY-AL R
WY-GOV D
WY-GOV R
WY-SOS R
WY-Superintendent R
WY-Treasurer R
AK-SEN
AK-GOV
AK-AL

South Dakota, with only a few local contests, is outside the scope of my projections.

First notable poll closing is 9 ET

I will project AK-AL Special on the Specials thread.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cheney only down by 9 in Casper!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cheney only down by 9 in Casper!

Only 30% is in though and we don't necessarily know from where in the County these are coming from

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling WY-GOV R for Gordon!

Uncalled:
WY-AL D
WY-AL R
WY-GOV D
WY-SOS R
WY-Superintendent R
WY-Treasurer R
AK-SEN
AK-GOV
AK-AL
KS-Treasurer R

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm surprised to see how close the Cheney-Hageman race is so far (although it's still very early).

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1559714699557720064?s=21&t=SEdOfA473c-...

[politicallefty]

Cheney only down by 9 in Casper!

Only 30% is in though and we don't necessarily know from where in the County these are coming from

She probably needs to win there by quite a bit. She's done, as we all knew before tonight.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cheney only down by 9 in Casper!

Only 30% is in though and we don't necessarily know from where in the County these are coming from

Probably the mail-in vote, which I would assume would be better for her than any of the rest of the vote.

[Ferguson97]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

[Saint Milei]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1559714699557720064?s=21&t=SEdOfA473c-...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

[kwabbit]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

I think she should win Teton. Not sure what the GOP primary electorate look like there, but it should be much different than the rest of the state even if it's not entirely rich ski types.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

I think she should win Teton. Not sure what the GOP primary electorate look like there, but it should be much different than the rest of the state even if it's not entirely rich ski types.

That would be my assumption, but then again she is currently barely at 30% in the statewide vote...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.