2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Current Finstad is ahead in Rice County by 15 with apparently 87% of the vote in. If that holds that's a very good sign for him, but only narrowly breaking 4k votes in the County seems quite low so I'm skeptical that's truly 87% in.

[It’s so Joever]

Much of Rice isn't in the district, including Northfield. The actual part of the county in the district was Trump+15ish I believe. Not that it matters because ETTINGER IS TOAST ANYWAYS.

[Nyvin]

Omar has a 3k lead with 96% in so she's probably good to win, but she needs to get better at this stuff

[Sestak]

Current Finstad is ahead in Rice County by 15 with apparently 87% of the vote in. If that holds that's a very good sign for him, but only narrowly breaking 4k votes in the County seems quite low so I'm skeptical that's truly 87% in.

15 points matches Hagedorn's margin in the CD1 slice of Rice. 20K votes in 2020.

[Sestak]

Finstad absolutely destroying Trump's margin in another county (Rice). This one could be over a lot sooner than expected.

District is sliced; the portion in CD1 is substantially more R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Finstad absolutely destroying Trump's margin in another county (Rice with 87%). This one could be over a lot sooner than expected.

Tbf, he's basically matching Trump's performance in the part of the County in the district but that's all he needs to get a solid win. I'm more curious to see how close the final margin is.

[Senator Incitatus]

Finstad absolutely destroying Trump's margin in another county (Rice). This one could be over a lot sooner than expected.

District is sliced; the portion in CD1 is substantially more R.

Noticed soon after posting and deleted. Evidently not quick enough for some of our speedy posters.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

MN-01 RETURNS:

Brad Finstad (R)- 3,587 (60.1%)
Jeff Ettinger (D)- 2,217 (37.2%)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rock County seems to be all in and Finstad did slightly underrun Trump 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems actually may have a small chance of beating R turnout in WI based upon the results in so far, which would be quite an upset, especially given the lack of competative primaries on the D side.

No — this is mostly early vote with much of it from Madison and Milwaukee.

Tbf, in some of these relatively populous SE Counties such as Kenosha a disproportionately share of the vote in seems to be for Rs so idk how universally true it is. We shall see.

I mean, Republicans have already taken the lead by ~10k votes in most of these races, but you’re free to wait and see, sure.

Didn't PA have max R turnout and OH and Rs are losing Indies can vote in R primary especially Indy Females that will vote D in the GE turnout doesn't mean nothing or Vance would be r leading Rs beat us in turnout in OH and he's losing

FEMALES VOTE R IN PRIMARY AND D IN GE THATS EHAT HAPPENED IN IL THE FEMALES VOTED FOR BAILEY INSTEAD OF SULLIVAN ABD WILL VOTE D IN GE

MT Treasure like to Turnout because since Dobbs except for FL Gov every poll has gone against Rs and Crist is within 3

[It’s so Joever]

Getting worse for Ettinger in Rice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Slight underperformance of Trump by Finstad in Rock County but prolly not enough to make this competaitve. Imma wait for a bit more to come in before calling it though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Rock County seems to be all in and Finstad did slightly underrun Trump 2020.

All I've learned in elections since 2020 is that % of vote in projections are always incredibly off.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling WI-4 R for Rogers!


Uncalled:

VT-SEN R
VT-AL R
VT-LT GOV D
VT-SOS D
CT-4 R
MN-1 R
MN-4 R
MN-5 D
MN-5 R
MN-7 D
MN-AG R
WI-GOV R
WI-SOS R
WI-AG R
WI-2 R
WI-3 D
WI-LT GOV R
WI-Treasurer D
KS-Treasurer R

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Split the county over the map using DRA

The part of Rice County that is part of MN-01 was 60.3%-37.3% Trump in 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Split the county over the map using DRA

The part of Rice County that is part of MN-01 was 60.3%-37.3% Trump in 2020.

If the trends hold up Ettinger would lose by 6%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MN-1 R for Finstad! (this is the primary for November, I'll be projecting the special on the other thread)

Uncalled:

VT-SEN R
VT-AL R
VT-LT GOV D
VT-SOS D
CT-4 R
MN-4 R
MN-5 D
MN-5 R
MN-7 D
MN-AG R
WI-GOV R
WI-SOS R
WI-AG R
WI-2 R
WI-3 D
WI-LT GOV R
WI-Treasurer D
KS-Treasurer R

[Senator Incitatus]

The Vermont Senate Republican primary between two boring candidates is far less interesting than the House one, where the current leading candidate is Liam Madden, an ex-Marine who led Iraq Veterans Against the War and cites Howard Zinn, Noam Chomsky, and Oliver Stone as inspirations on his campaign page.

edit: He also cites getting banned from social media for COVID skepticism and experiences on ayahuasca.

https://rebirthdemocracy.com/liams-story-1

If only the national GOP were this cool.

NYT has called the race for Madden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not that it means much but R turnout in VT was very dreadful, especially considering the competative Senate Primary.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1557187133177200643

Are we gonna blame the DCCC for this one too, or can we maybe admit that this is just what Republican voters want?

[Roll Roons]

Liam Madden (R who was called as the winner of the primary for Vermont's House seat) may be the single most atypical Republican candidate running anywhere in the country. Even for Vermont, he's something else.

Also Vermont LG is absolutely a tossup and Republicans have a very good shot of winning it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We hilariously do seem to have a very competitive Legal Marijuana Now Governor primary, the winning ticket leads by only two votes.

[Nyvin]

Liam Madden (R who was called as the winner of the primary for Vermont's House seat) may be the single most atypical Republican candidate running anywhere in the country. Even for Vermont, he's something else.

He's certainly the most anti-war, anti-interventionist GOP candidate out there.

[GALeftist]

Free advice for Ilhan Omar:

1. Fire your campaign manager this very second.
2. Find a new campaign manager.
3. Ensure that this campaign manager doesn't eat paste, doesn't live in a house with a carbon monoxide leak, etc.
4. Hire this campaign manager.
5. Inform your new campaign manager that they will also be fired equally unceremoniously if they decide to watch Blow Down the House and blow all your money on le epic ground game instead of TV ads.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1557187133177200643

Are we gonna blame the DCCC for this one too, or can we maybe admit that this is just what Republican voters want?

As terrible as their replacements always are, there is a little bit of joy to be found in deeply horrible politicians like Robin Vos losing.