2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[wbrocks67]

What does everyone think about Cisneros? I really feel like she's gonna beat Cuellar this time.

[wbrocks67]

2018: 1.54 million Republican, 1.02 million Democratic
2020: 1.93 million Republican, 1.87 million Democratic
2022: ~1.97 million Republican, ~1.11 million Democratic (based on an estimate of outstanding votes)

Turnout isn't super high, but it's still higher than it's been in any midterm. Part of that is population growth, but part of it is that turnout isn't going back to 2014 levels. Republicans are going to be anywhere from 62-65% of the total primary vote, very much lining up with the early vote, if anything a little more Republican. That is devastating for Democrats and doesn't bode well for them in November.

And obviously, this was a region to watch for many reasons, but many interesting tidbits out of the Rio Grande. First, turnout in Republican primaries is even higher than it was in 2020 presidential primaries, despite overall turnout being about as high as the non-presidential primary and slightly lower than the presidential. Second, note how well the non-O'Rourke Democratic candidates are doing in those counties. Voting for non-mainline candidates who are largely unknown (some could call it "protest voting") in a party primary is often a sign that those people have little interest in the modern party. Both of these things confirm that the RGV is likely to trend Republican, a continuation of 2020 trends.

So we went from R+20 in 2018 to R+28 last night, which is... not good. I mean, given the environment in 2018 and 2020, it's not *terrible*, but still not what you want to see if Dems want to make *any* inroads in TX

[wbrocks67]

I'm still confused as to whether DDHQ or NYT is better for watching election results come in

DDHQ appears to be faster sometimes but other than that, they're both usually really good (NYTs page is more aesthetically pleasing imo lol)

[wbrocks67]

Big Warning Sign for Democrats in North Carolina:

# 1 There are now more Independent Registered Voters than Democrats or Republicans in the State.
# 2 Independent requesting a Republican Primary Ballot over a Democratic Ballot by a whopping 31 Percentage Points (65 % to 34 %)
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1523308843802906624

# 3 Polls have shown Independents massivly disapproving of President Biden in the State and the two Major Republican Senate Candidates Ted Budd & Pat McCrory leading the de facto Democratic Nominee Cheri Beasley by a considerably margin.

.... because there is a contested republican primary going on compared to the Democratic side. This is the same thing as Ohio. It's apples to oranges and shouldn't be compared. Independents may be strategically picking the R side because there is more races to vote on, compared to the D side

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine that Herbster likely would've pulled it out if not for the sexual assault allegations, so with the WV-02 news, Trumps endorsement appears to be remaining strong.

[wbrocks67]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

True, though people should remember that the mail in vote may come last in PA given that we're still in the old ages with not being able to pre-canvass still

[wbrocks67]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

[wbrocks67]

McCormick now only 1.2% up with 65% reporting. Most of his PGH/western sinks are nearly all in, so looks like Oz/Barnette have more out here, especially with more E-day out

[wbrocks67]

Philly only has 38% divisions reporting now, and oddly Oz doing well in Philly compared to McC/Barnette

[wbrocks67]

McCormick now only 0.9% up, this is really gonna come down to one of them winning by like 1-3%

[wbrocks67]

McCormick now 0.7% and 6k votes ahead

[wbrocks67]

omg, 0.5% and 5k votes

[wbrocks67]

McCormick now +0.4%

Oz seems to be doing better in Montco than he was, he was tied with McCormick but now 4% ahead of him there

[wbrocks67]

McCormick lead now <4k votes

[wbrocks67]

Oz now only down 1.7k.

[wbrocks67]

CNN and NYT both have Dems at 83% in.

NYT has Reps at 93% and CNN has 84%.

[wbrocks67]

CNN and NYT both have Dems at 83% in.

NYT has Reps at 93% and CNN has 84%.

update- dont bother with NYT's % reporting. its back down to 91 after being >95% a few minutes ago

[wbrocks67]

I find it hard to believe there are still nearly 30K mail-in ballots left to count on the GOP side. That would mean there has to be like 100K on the Dem side left somehow and ... other than late arrivals and provisionals, I don't know where these are coming from? Unless there's a few counties that weren't even opening mail-ins until today, which I believe i heard somewhere.

[wbrocks67]

Yikes, the OR GOP party might be just as incompetent as the PA GOP and FL Dems at this point.

[wbrocks67]

This kind of stuff is insane. They should be working 24/7 IMO to finish this out. There's no reason for *TWO DAY* breaks.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1526929653264527360

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Barnette didn't do better in Montco. On one hand, she's gone crazy and Montco Rs tend to be more moderate, but she also has her 'base' there and the most fans you'd think b/c she ran in 2020 here.

[wbrocks67]

So if the 32k for GOP is correct, Dems have about ~73k mail-ins left to count.

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1526963114138288129

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

2016 Senate

Democratic: 1,575,922 (54.0%)
Republican: 1,342,941 (46.0%) (unopposed)

2018 Senate

Democratic: 752,008 (52.2%) (unopposed)
Republican: 687,430 (47.8%)

I'd have to look back further though for when both sides had competitive primaries. Even this year, it's not total apples to apples because Shapiro was unopposed

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the numbers of overall turnout in previous PA primaries where there were federal races involved? I’m interested to compare the party turnaround

2016 Senate

Democratic: 1,575,922 (54.0%)
Republican: 1,342,941 (46.0%) (unopposed)

2018 Senate

Democratic: 752,008 (52.2%) (unopposed)
Republican: 687,430 (47.8%)

I'd have to look back further though for when both sides had competitive primaries. Even this year, it's not total apples to apples because Shapiro was unopposed

2022 Senate

Republican: 1,319,452 (52.6%)
Democratic: 1,186,333 (47.4%)

Not bad for the Dems since they had a relatively non-competitive Senate primary and no Gubernatorial primary while the GOP had a complete clown car in both.

+ likely to get tighter, since GOP has ~30k mail-ins left while Dems have ~70k.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman passes 700K votes.