Who is more likely to lose? Wild or Cartwright?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who is more likely to lose?

[Calthrina950]

Based on candidate quality, Wild. But based on the partisanship of the district, Cartwright. Overall, I would say Wild, but Cartwright is closely behind her.

[Gracile]

Cartwright because his district is more Republican, though I think the difference will not be that significant and that they will both lose.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wild

[Xing]

Wild. I expect Cartwright to lose, but I think he'll overperform the district's partisan lean by more.

[coloradocowboi]

I think Cartwright is a slight favorite right now. He also had the added benefit of running against a look, whereas Lisa Scheller is quite moderate. Or by todays standards for the GOP at least.

I still think both will narrowly pull through. But wild is more vulnerable

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cartwright has the less favorable district but has a very well-established brand in it, that actually became slightly more Democratic in redistricting, and has historically over-performed. Therefore I say that Wild is more likely to lose even though she has the better district.

But, gun to my head, I say that both end up losing still.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing do note is both did very similarly in 2020. Post redistricting, both of their districts remained basically in tact, but Cartwrights district actually got a point bluer while wilds got like 6 points redder. Def Cartwright, sure candidate quality is becoming less of a factor but still enough to close a 3 point gap in tooling partisanship

[Del Tachi]

They both lose, but I think Cartwright does better given the partisan lean of his district.