2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Adam Griffin]

I know OSR doesn't like to hear it but Romney also lost it because of his fraudulent Mormon Faith.

The Evangelical Base in the South never warmed up to him evident that he got considerable less of the White Evangelical Base Vote compared to Trump or even GWB in 2000 & 2004.

Not to defend bleep-blorp, but as creative of a story as this is, Romney pretty objectively held his own in the Old Confederacy as a whole compared to Trump-16.

Romney won the OC by 8.45 points in 2012 (53.54-45.09), compared to Trump's win of 8.37 in 2016 (52.00-43.63).

In raw vote, Trump gained 880k votes over Romney there, while Clinton gained 675k over Obama-12. Despite gaining 200k net votes over Clinton, the sheer uptick in turnout (39.6m -> 42.5m) resulted in his winning % margin being slightly smaller.

End result: whatever Trump gained, he more or less pissed away elsewhere by forcing roughly as many people to go 3P. Obviously it was enough to flip what was already a very-close Florida result in 2012 (which is the least real Southern state by today's standards; essentially a handful of black Southerners and the rest being pure Yankeedom), but overall, claiming "the South" loved Trump so much more - including his GOP primary support in 2016, where he did 6 points worse as a share of PV than he did in the national primary - is a huge stretch of the truth.

[2016]

Cheney now down 50K Votes per CNN.

While there was no doubt some D-Crossover Support Hageman is 13K shy of the 2020 WY R Turnout which had 106,438 Total Votes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically looks like the 2020 election if Biden nutted nationally.

[NOVA Green]

Wyoming Secretary of State R primary is very interesting. Chuck Gray, who is a "stop the steal" candidate, and Tara Nethercott, who believes 2020 was fair, are locked in a very close battle. Nethercott, like Cheney, is getting a big win out of Teton. But Nethercott is also carrying Fremont, Natrona (Casper), and Laramie (Cheyenne). Still waiting on Albany.

The "Southern Belt of WY" along I-80 has historically been the "Democratic belt", and even as recently as 1988, we observe some random liberal GOV from MASS, performing extremely well.

Although even in counties that contain some extremely PUB rurals, it is not unusual to see DEMs perform well in the cities along that belt.

Cheyenne was not overwhelming Trump country in 2020 GE-PRES for example, regardless of the final results from Laramie County.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cheney falls below 30%

[GALeftist]

Cheney leads Albany County by 15 points with 82% est. in, so she will likely keep it in her column, for all the good it does her, which is nada.

Yep, with all votes counted, Cheney wins by 3 in Albany County.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cheney leads Albany County by 15 points with 82% est. in, so she will likely keep it in her column, for all the good it does her, which is nada.

Yep, with all votes counted, Cheney wins by 3 in Albany County.

Well that tightened up considerably at the end.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

All elections in Alaska are non-partisan now (except the presidential race). Honestly, it's how things should be done. Voters should be making choices based on quality and platform of candidates, not based on a letter next to their name.

I do understand your objection, but one key goal and pivotal means of democracy is to get as many citizens to the voting booths as possible, including the educationally disadvantaged strata, who usually don't tend to have sound knowledge of politics, or often don't have time to go into politics more closely, respectively. That single letter next to the candidates' names often helps them reach their decision, which they might regret afterwards when they can't reverse it anymore after reconsidering it when it's too late, for example in Begich's case who is the exact opposite of what "deceived" Democratic voters might have wanted.
Or imagine the 1996 senatorial election in Virginia; a nonpartisan general election would have been a catastrophe.

[NOVA Green]

Cheney has more votes out of Teton County than Trump got out of that county in 2020, in case we were wondering just how much crossover voting of Democratic voters there is in this primary.

Although naturally and honestly, this perhaps might be more indicative of voters in certain parts of Western Montana this coming November, and perhaps a few other spots in the Mountain West in places such as Idaho, Colorado, etc...

WY-GE elections have always been won and lost along the I-80 Belt, with some occasional exceptions when Casper runs in a dramatically different direction.

Major swings in Teton County don't really amount to a "Hill of Beans" in Wyoming politics...

Best to focus on the cities such as Cheyenne, Laramie, Rock Springs, etc...

I remember even when I was a kid in the 1980s my step-mother warned me (As a 3rd generation Wyoming strong woman): "Whatever you do be very careful if you get out of the car in Rock Springs, especially when the Roughnecks cash their checks".

This is no BS and no jiving... we split from a hotel in Cheyenne in the middle of Night, after having rolled into town around 2 AM.

Some random dude appeared to be digging up the flower bed right outside the Capitol Building!

Seedy random joint we checked into and smuggled our dogs and cats into the room, and then suddenly my older sister gets an allergic reaction, and we get loaded up into the car, while my mom is wrangling with the hotel guy to get her money back.

I was driving the other way on I-80 all the way from the Midwest to come back home with three others, and we get pulled over by a County Sheriff...

Apparently there was a "Rainbow Family Gathering" nearby in the Medicine Bow National Forest, and one of my girlfriends had dreads.

They searched the car in the cold December day, and finally she cracked and gave the location about where she had stuffed an 1/8 oz. MJ in the drive away car, as soon as I told her we were getting pulled over.

Sheriff grabbed her herb (no paperwork) and we were free to go with the exception of the speeding ticket of the driver.

Still, Garth Brooks all right in my book, and Beaches of Cheyenne, still a really good song

Hell... we all knew Liz was gonna lose, regardless of how many cross-over Indies and DEMs, that re-registered in an overwhelmingly Republican State.

Despite the fact that her Father was the "Great Architect" of the Iraq War, does not mean that I hold it against her compared to that of DEM and PUB SENATORS alike, not to mention various members of the US-House, who voted for what was effectively an ideological project to remake the political environment of the middle east, and instead, created a long term nightmare.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, but Palin has near universal Name ID, is a rather controversial figure even in Alaska, and the Begich family are a very well-known, multi-generational, popular Democratic political family in Alaska. I guarantee some folks think Begich is a moderate Democrat or at least more reasonable than he actually is just b/c of his last name.  Again though, the big thing is that Palin has near-universal Name ID and a lot of it is negative at this point.  There was a reason she opted not to run for re-election in 2010.

Wait ... According to CNN, the Alaska holds a nonpartisan primary. I thoroughly hope that that doesn't apply to the special election. It ought to be obligatory for the candidates' party affiliations to be listed beside their names, in my assessment.

All elections in Alaska are non-partisan now (except the presidential race). Honestly, it's how things should be done. Voters should be making choices based on quality and platform of candidates, not based on a letter next to their name.

In modern America, the party a candidate belongs to is a pretty reliable indicator of candidate quality and ideology.

[2016]

Total Vote in the WY R-Primary 2020: 106,438

Total Vote for Harriett Hageman 2022: 105,846

ASTOUNDING!!!

If she finds another 800 Votes she could top that.

[GALeftist]

Total Vote in the WY R-Primary 2020: 106,438

Total Vote for Harriett Hageman 2022: 105,846

ASTOUNDING!!!

If she finds another 800 Votes she could top that.

She probably will, because the 2020 Wyoming Republican primary was a pointless waste of time  and I'm surprised anyone gave it the time of day

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lisa Murkowski *GOP   38,549   42.1%
Kelly Tshibaka GOP   38,311   41.9%
Patricia Chesbro DEM   5,659   6.2%
Buzz Kelley GOP           2,121   2.3%
Pat Nolin GOP           1,030   1.1%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AK-GOV: Dunleavy, Gara, and Walker will all advance!

AK-SEN: Murkowski and Tshibaka will advance!

AK-AL: Peltola, Palin and Begich will advance!

Uncalled:

AK-SEN Slot 3
AK-SEN Slot 4
AK-GOV Slot 4
AK-AL Slot 4
KS-Treasurer R

[NewYorkExpress]

Lisa Murkowski *GOP 38,549 42.1%
Kelly Tshibaka GOP 38,311 41.9%
Patricia Chesbro DEM 5,659 6.2%
Buzz Kelley GOP         2,121 2.3%
Pat Nolin GOP         1,030 1.1%

It looks like early on, like Murkowski might get saved by a split GOP field, assuming this is the final lineup in November. I imagine most, if not all Chesbro voters will have her second.

[NOVA Green]

Lisa Murkowski *GOP   38,549   42.1%
Kelly Tshibaka GOP   38,311   41.9%
Patricia Chesbro DEM   5,659   6.2%
Buzz Kelley GOP           2,121   2.3%
Pat Nolin GOP           1,030   1.1%

Unless I am tripping looks like a very very large number of Indies and DEMs crossed over thus far, since last time I checked a Republican would def not win AK with 85% of the vote.

Could be a lot of DEMs and GRNs and DEM leaning Indies say this one out, but AK is a state, where it is entirely plausible to see massive cross-over voting, especially after the gutting of Roe v. Wade.

It might be a bit until we see final results from AK, but numbers don't always work as some might expect when it comes to ED vs EV votes in a VBM State, where Rural AK votes to the left of the Cities and Metro.

Will def be interested to see how this looks especially in Anchorage which flipped and voted DEM for PRES for the first time in decades for Biden.

[Lief 🗽]

Great news for Murkowski if she actually won that dump!

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1559777183333339137?s=21&t=La880xb...

[GALeftist]

Yeah, Murkowski looking remarkably good, albeit almost entirely on the back of Democratic votes from the looks of it lol.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile "Nailin' Palin" and "Drill Baby Drill" for VP Nominee, is currently running behind the DEM candidate, but quite a bit ahead of Begich, at least based on the first "dump".

I'm assuming this is good news for her, without even having any idea where the votes are currently coming from?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1559771545534357508

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

AK-AL: Peltola, Palin and Begich will advance!

Uncalled:

AK-AL Slot 4

Is there really any doubt that Sweeney will be the fourth candidate to advance to the general?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Excellent news Palin is leading Mary Peltola will beat Palin yippie 😃

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mary Peltola will be the next rep if Palin bears Begich net 1

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1559771545534357508

Palin’s always been more pro-female candidates than not. She probably did put Peltola as her second choice, especially since the alternative was Begich.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/adriaeln/status/1559771545534357508

Palin’s always been more pro-female candidates than not. She probably did put Peltola as her second choice, especially since the alternative was Begich.

Ah forgot Alaska has ranked choice voting now