Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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  Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 28884 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #450 on: July 10, 2022, 04:00:15 AM »

The expected turnout is 51.5.  Much lower than expected.  I guess the Abe assassination had less impact than expected or there was a surge in LDP turnout but a decline in anti-LDP turnout.

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Logical
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« Reply #451 on: July 10, 2022, 04:02:04 AM »

Something darkly ironic, the prefecture with the highest rate of turnout increase relative to 2019 is..... Nara.
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Logical
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« Reply #452 on: July 10, 2022, 05:31:34 AM »

18 00 Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

Starting to think that an Abe sympathy surge may not be happening at all or will perhaps be minor. LDP stronghold prefectures like Gunma, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi are actually showing a drop in turnout compared to the very anemic turnout in 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #453 on: July 10, 2022, 05:45:03 AM »

Turnout map by prefecture relative to 2019 as for 6PM

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jaichind
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« Reply #454 on: July 10, 2022, 05:48:54 AM »

18 00 Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

Starting to think that an Abe sympathy surge may not be happening at all or will perhaps be minor. LDP stronghold prefectures like Gunma, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi are actually showing a drop in turnout compared to the very anemic turnout in 2019.

I wonder what youth turnout is like.  Higher turnout assumptions were based on a surge of sympathy turnout with younger voters.  One reason why it might not have taken place is that Japanese social media last 24 hours has been flooded with messages along the lines of "The Unification Church wants you to vote LDP".  Most likely the online Left and Far Right are behind this.  Regardless this might have tampered down the sympathy turnout for LDP amoung the youth.
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jaichind
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« Reply #455 on: July 10, 2022, 05:59:02 AM »

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/ live now
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jaichind
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« Reply #456 on: July 10, 2022, 06:03:20 AM »

NHK exit polls

LDP    59-69
KP      10-14
CDP    13-20
JRP     10-15
DPP       2-5
JCP        3-6
SDP       0-1
RS         1-3
PNHK     0-1
Others    5-7 (ind and PP)
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jaichind
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« Reply #457 on: July 10, 2022, 06:03:59 AM »

LDP looks like did well but not a blowout victory.  KP 10-14 but really coming in at 14 means everyone else will be at slightly lower end of their range.
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jaichind
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« Reply #458 on: July 10, 2022, 06:04:51 AM »

青森(Aomori) called right away for CDP shows it is not a mega LDP landslide
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jaichind
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« Reply #459 on: July 10, 2022, 06:05:27 AM »

岩手(Iwate) called right away for LDP shows it is a good night for LDP though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #460 on: July 10, 2022, 06:06:46 AM »

CDP called to win 1 of 2 京都(Kyoto) seats showed JRP underperformed and/or massive JCP tactical voting for CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #461 on: July 10, 2022, 06:10:11 AM »

Only 1- member districts uncalled are 山形(Yamagata) (DPP should win), 長野(Nagano) (CDP should win but for it to be close despite LDP candidate scandal shows the size of the LDP wave), 福井(Fukui) (JRP backed LDP rebel must be making a dent), 奈良(Nara) (so rumors of JRP surge is true), 沖縄(Okinawa) (should be neck-to-neck given it is a good but not super-duper night for LDP)




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jaichind
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« Reply #462 on: July 10, 2022, 06:11:38 AM »

In Tokyo, as expected the LDP CDP KP JCP incumbents called to win.  It is now LDP RS JRP to fight it out for the last 2 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #463 on: July 10, 2022, 06:14:53 AM »

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) as expected, LDP LDP KP JRP wins so it will be CDP and JCP fighting it out for the last seat which will only run for 3 years.
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Logical
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« Reply #464 on: July 10, 2022, 06:17:46 AM »

On the PR list NHK has it at
LDP 17
KP 5
CDP 6
JRP 6
DPP 2
JCP 2
RS 1
PP 1

Uncalled 10


Asahi
LDP 18
KP 5
CDP 5
JRP 5
JCP 3
DPP 2
RS 1
PP 1

Uncalled 10

Good night for LDP but not a landslide
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jaichind
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« Reply #465 on: July 10, 2022, 06:22:16 AM »

The district-by-district exit polls by NHK seem to show that PP winning a decent vote share.  PP is now THE anti-system party in this election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #466 on: July 10, 2022, 06:36:00 AM »

Looking at the district seat votes shares of PP in NHK exit polls it would not surprise me if they get to 2 seats on the PR, maybe even beating out RS.  Amazing.  The Abe assassination I thought would have depressed anti-system turnout but it seems stronger than ever.
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jaichind
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« Reply #467 on: July 10, 2022, 06:44:33 AM »

In most rural 1- member prefectures the PP vote share as per NHK exit polls is beating JCP in a lot if not most of them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #468 on: July 10, 2022, 06:50:15 AM »

NHK exit poll for 長野(Nagano).  It is not called but looks like CDP got this and stopped the LDP surge mostly due to the scandal that hit the LDP candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #469 on: July 10, 2022, 06:54:59 AM »

NHK exit poll for Tokyo.  Note the second LDP candidate is NOT called but the KP candidate is.  The CDP and JCP candidates are also called winners. This is because even NHK knows that exit polls systematically underestimate KP and most likely overestimate LDP.


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jaichind
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« Reply #470 on: July 10, 2022, 07:03:22 AM »

Superset of all media house calls.
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jaichind
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« Reply #471 on: July 10, 2022, 07:20:19 AM »

NHK exit poll for 奈良(Nara).  LDP well below 50% and there was a JRP surge.  The seat is not called but LDP should have this.
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Logical
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« Reply #472 on: July 10, 2022, 07:32:13 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2022, 07:36:57 AM by Logical »

NHK calls Niigata for LDP.
Nara was also called earlier.
Akita called for LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #473 on: July 10, 2022, 07:37:16 AM »

NTV exit poll

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Logical
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« Reply #474 on: July 10, 2022, 07:39:52 AM »

NHK calls Yamanashi for LDP
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