Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 22893 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: July 03, 2022, 11:21:30 AM »

Nikkie has a JRP surge in 京都(Kyoto) which should be bad news for CDP which was viewed as ahead by other media outfits of JRP for the second seat.  The good news for CDP is that the JRP surge seems to be coming for LDP and KP voters.  If so the result could be JRP and CDP winning the 2 seats and LDP in a shock third place.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #326 on: July 03, 2022, 11:23:13 AM »

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?

From what I can gather it has to do with the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada).  It turns out that she has an American father and was born in the USA but then moved to 岡山(Okayama) which is her mother's prefecture after she was born.  So like Renho she has her own birther "issues" to deal with.  She also started her political career in Tokyo where she went to college and became a LDP up-and-coming star there before running for the Upper House in 岡山(Okayama) in 2016 when the seat unexpectedly became an open seat when a long-time popular opposition politician retired.  The LDP and KP base, tired of losing to that popular opposition politician for years united in 2016 for what they mostly consider a generic LDP candidate to win which they did.

But 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) was always seen by the local LDP and KP organization as an "outsider" and that came to a head in her re-election.  The local KP organization was raising doubts about endorsing 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) this time around and it seems was mostly a ploy to get 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) to pay more attention to their interest.  It seems 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) struck back by saying that she did not need KP's endorsement which led to a blowup.   The local LDP prefecture assembly members are freaked out about this since without KP support they might take a hit in the 2023 prefecture assembly election.  On the other hand, there seem to be some LDP supporters that have always been not so hot about the LDP-KP alliance that came out in favor of 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s stance.  The pro-CDP independent tried to take advantage of this and asked for KP's endorsement and was rejected. 

The net effect is that the KP vote will be split between the LDP's 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) and the pro-CDP independent although I can see higher LDP turnout energized by what it appears to be小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s principled stance.

The article also pointed out another reason why this development is not so rosy for the pro-CDP independent beyond a separate JCP candidate (well if JCP was backing the pro-CDP independent the KP who hates JCP above all else would back 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) anyway.)  The article points out that Rengo is backing the pro-CDP independent but used the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) to describe that alliance.  吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) is an ancient Chinese saying from the Han dynasty that refers to a story from earlier Chinese history (during the era of Sun Tzu) where the kingdoms of Wu and Yue were rivals but when people from both kingdoms were stuck on the same boat that was about to capsize they all worked together to get the boat to safety.  Even though this saying was always about the need for enemies to pull together to deal with a present common danger the saying has always inferred (this is controversial as there have been alternative readings of this saying) that the alliance will break up after the common danger has passed.  The article's use of the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) implies the Rengo support for the pro-CDP independent is most likely not rock solid and some of the Rengo/DPP vote could go LDP.

Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?
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jaichind
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« Reply #327 on: July 03, 2022, 11:28:13 AM »



Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #328 on: July 03, 2022, 11:29:44 AM »



Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.
Oh, I was mainly wondering if she's got any particular charisma, something likewise beneficial in an election, or something to that effect, that could cut into the opposition-friendly vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #329 on: July 03, 2022, 11:31:37 AM »



Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.
Oh, I was mainly wondering if she's got any particular charisma or something to that  effect, that could cut into the opposition-friendly vote.

Ah.  The Nikkie survey does not say but I would think that as a LDP candidate in a FPTP seat saying she does not need the KP vote I can for sure see projecting her as a politician with principles and push marginal LDP and opposition voters toward her.  Also of course JCP is in the race to count into the anti-LDP vote.
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Logical
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« Reply #330 on: July 03, 2022, 12:36:53 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2022, 12:40:04 PM by Logical »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #331 on: July 03, 2022, 01:45:29 PM »

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #332 on: July 03, 2022, 02:25:00 PM »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #333 on: July 03, 2022, 02:35:57 PM »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.
So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?
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Logical
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« Reply #334 on: July 03, 2022, 02:45:46 PM »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.
So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?

JRP and the far right minor parties are eating into the LDP vote and might cause a surprise result or two on election night.
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jaichind
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« Reply #335 on: July 03, 2022, 02:47:30 PM »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.
So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?

That there are many undecideds and that convergence of pro- and anti- LDP media on a fairly narrow set of results most likely underestimate the volatility of the likely results.  It is very likely election night there will be some shocking results in a couple of prefectures and I suspect the PR section.

I think rising inflation with stagnant wages along with the heat wave is lowering support for LDP but marginal votes most likely think of CDP as just as bad.  This could benefit JRP but just as likely benefit the anti-system parties like PNHK and PP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: July 03, 2022, 06:12:27 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2022, 04:18:19 AM by jaichind »

Summary of all media projections for multi-member districts. (updated to include Jiji)



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jaichind
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« Reply #337 on: July 04, 2022, 04:34:34 AM »

Early voting is higher than in 2016 and 2019.  But the trend in Japan is moving toward more early voting so this is not a sign of higher turnout.  Also, the 2019 turnout was very low so any comparison has to take that into account.
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jaichind
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« Reply #338 on: July 04, 2022, 05:25:57 AM »
« Edited: July 04, 2022, 05:29:48 AM by jaichind »

The final pre-election NHK poll has Kishida cabinet approval bouncing back



In terms of party support (not PR voting as NHK does not poll for PR vote), LDP-KP stayed the same while JRP and JCP went up and CDP went down.

Using my NHK pre-election party support -> PR vote model I have it at LDP-KP at the 46.5% to 48.5% range.  It seems to imply that the LDP-KP PR vote will fall from 2019 levels but be around 2021 levels.  Note that LDP tends to outperform on Upper House PR vote since you get to vote for a person and LDP PR candidates often tend to have appeal beyond the LDP.  So if LDP-KP merely matches 2021 PR vote share it is a de facto decline.
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jaichind
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« Reply #339 on: July 04, 2022, 06:29:35 AM »

Latest JX PR projection

LDP       16-19
KP           6-8
PP           1-2  !!
PNHK       0-1
JRP          8-9
DPP         2-2
CDP         7-9
RS           2-3
SDP         0-0
JCP          3-4

Looks like they are negative on SDP but very bullish on JRP especially PP.
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Logical
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« Reply #340 on: July 04, 2022, 07:12:37 AM »

Latest JX polls




Shows the opposition shockingly leading in Fukui!
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jaichind
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« Reply #341 on: July 04, 2022, 07:19:07 AM »

The big JX projection surprise is that in 福井(Fukui) the pro-CDP independent is ahead
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Logical
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« Reply #342 on: July 04, 2022, 09:07:47 AM »

Highest increase in early voting turnout by prefecture
1. Tokyo 150.32%
2. Tokushima 146.20%
3. Aomori 140.20%
4. Gifu 137.01%
5. Miyazaki 136.89%
6. Iwate 133.98%
7. Chiba 133.96%
8. Kanagawa 130.90%
9. Osaka 129.37%
10. Kagawa 129.20%

Nationwide 123.41%

The increase in Tokyo and neighboring prefectures is significant. Good showing in JRP friendly prefectures too.
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: July 04, 2022, 09:08:21 AM »

JX projection for the Greater Tokyo area

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jaichind
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« Reply #344 on: July 04, 2022, 10:18:04 AM »

Despite NHK numbers, the trend is still a slow fall of Kishida's cabinet approval numbers



LDP party support is also falling slowly while CDP and JRP are both rising with CDP slightly ahead of JRP

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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: July 04, 2022, 10:41:21 AM »

The SDP is going all woke this election cycle.  They are giving up the old socially moderate to conservative Rengo union vote (the Joe Manchin vote) to DPP and even LDP and will battle CDP for the socially liberal middle-class vote (the Kamala Harris vote).  The main problem for the SDP is that in Japan the  Joe Manchin vote is a lot bigger than the Kamala Harris vote and it also has to deal with the CDP fighting for the same vote.
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Logical
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« Reply #346 on: July 04, 2022, 11:26:42 AM »

Despite NHK numbers, the trend is still a slow fall of Kishida's cabinet approval numbers

LDP party support is also falling slowly while CDP and JRP are both rising with CDP slightly ahead of JRP

Also a slight but notable JCP surge.
Will Asahi come out with a final projection? They had the most accurate numbers in 2021.
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jaichind
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« Reply #347 on: July 04, 2022, 11:33:33 AM »

Despite NHK numbers, the trend is still a slow fall of Kishida's cabinet approval numbers

LDP party support is also falling slowly while CDP and JRP are both rising with CDP slightly ahead of JRP

Also a slight but notable JCP surge.
Will Asahi come out with a final projection? They had the most accurate numbers in 2021.

I think the CDP JRP and JCP surge at the end are just people identifying more with parties as we get very close to the election.  It is because of this the drop in LDP support is an interesting data point.  Part of it will be KP voters that "hid out" as LDP voters but the drop seems bigger than that.  Still, LDP is in solid shape for the election and this last-minute drop is more about the scale of the LDP's victory.    The great mystery of election night will not be LDP-KP support but how the opposition vote splits.  Everything revolves around JRP.  Namely how much CDP and DPP votes went to JRP and how much JRP votes went to PP.

As for Asahi  I believe they will have one final projection a few days before the election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: July 04, 2022, 11:50:54 AM »

Kishida's approval rating same as Bolsonaro but Kishida seems likely to win this election and the coming elections to come.  Bolsonaro looks certain to be defeated later this year.  I guess how unitable the opposition is critical to if a regime can survive as much as its total level of support.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #349 on: July 04, 2022, 02:40:53 PM »

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.


If Ishin wins Nara would that be a sign of their evolution from "the Osaka party" to "the Kansai party"?

Also with respect to Sanseito, I noticed that one of their stops seemed to draw a bit of a crowd



Any idea where they'd be likely to do best and what do you think is the biggest draw for their apparent surge?
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