Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #350 on: July 04, 2022, 03:11:23 PM »


If Ishin wins Nara would that be a sign of their evolution from "the Osaka party" to "the Kansai party"?


Well In 2021 JRP PR vote already exceeded LDP PR in the entire Kinki area.  And that is not just because of Osaka but also 兵庫(Hyōgo).   Of course, if JRP does break through in Nara it will be the first rural Kinki prefecture that JRP is able to win.  This is important because JRP is much stronger in urban areas.   In Nara, the 2021 JRP PR vote was 28.1% versus LDP's 30.6% so it was already close.  For JRP to win Nara in the district section would mean it has to either eat into the LDP vote (hard), win the KP vote (hard) or eat into the CDP-DPP vote (difficult but doable).
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« Reply #351 on: July 04, 2022, 03:17:11 PM »

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.


If Ishin wins Nara would that be a sign of their evolution from "the Osaka party" to "the Kansai party"?

Also with respect to Sanseito, I noticed that one of their stops seemed to draw a bit of a crowd



Any idea where they'd be likely to do best and what do you think is the biggest draw for their apparent surge?

I think Ishin became the Kansai party when they won in Hyogo. Nara isn't that much different, it's just one mountain range away from Osaka and is economically inseparable from it. Now if they manage to win in Kyoto, a prefecture with a very strong local identity, the title will be indisputable.

Sanseito's rally crowds look a lot like Yamamoto Taro's, young and professional looking, so I think they'll do their best among the under 50 conservative leaning electorate concentrated in urban areas.
The Japanese youth are quite conservative, they find the opposition (CDP, DPP) useless, JCP outdated, and RS too far left. Which is why they swung towards Ishin in 2021. This year the latest fad party is Sanseito, they offer a clear message to the disillusioned youth and a safe place to park their protest votes. The major increase in living costs and stagnant wages will also drive frustrated voters into anti establishment parties. Since Sanseito is a new party, they are free from any baggage and can critize both the government and opposition freely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #352 on: July 05, 2022, 03:42:09 AM »

Abe campaigns with his old enemy 宮城(Miyagi) LDP candidate 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru).  桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) has been in DPJ for years and was a DPJ MP since 1998.  He was a minister in the DPJ government from 2009-2012 and during the Abe administration, he was a constant critic of PM Abe.  After DPJ which turned DP broke up he joined DPP but left DPP to become a pro-LDP independent when DPP formed an alliance with CDP in 2019.  After winning a LDP "primary" based on polling he was nominated by the LDP for his re-election race.
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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: July 05, 2022, 04:00:42 AM »

Yomiuri came out with their seat-by-seat analysis.  They have a large number of 1- member tossups although for most of them they consider lean LDP.    They confirm that 奈良(Nara) is close with a near 3-way tie between LDP JRP and CDP but LDP is slightly ahead.  They also have 宮崎(Miyazaki), 三重(Mie), 秋田(Akita), and 福島(Fukushima) as tossups but with slight LDP lean.  Most other media projections have them as solid LDP.




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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: July 05, 2022, 04:33:53 AM »


Will Asahi come out with a final projection? They had the most accurate numbers in 2021.

BTW, for the 2021 pre-election polling and exit poll miss people did go back to look at why and concluded that pre-election surveys and exit polls oversampled CDP voters and undersampled LDP voters.  It seems that COVID-19 made the less politically attached LDP voters respond at lower rates than the more energized CDP voters to pre-election polling and exit polls.   Similar theories have been postulated about the 2020 Trump pre-election polling underestimation although I think in the USA the dynamics were different.   Anyway, on top of that, there was a last-minute JRP surge that was missed.  So in fact, if there were no last-minute JRP surge the scale of LDP's victory could have been even higher. 

So Asahi got it right mostly because they historically had the most pro-LDP projections which happen to cancel out the undersampling of LDP voters.  And Asahi also missed the last-minute JRP surge as well but that was not talked about as much given the fact that they got the LDP numbers right.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: July 05, 2022, 05:43:42 AM »

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220704-ONN6SGIWLZLYFNULUHQPVN3NQI/

Sankei report on 宮城(Miyagi) which is mostly about the close race between the LDP incumbent and the CDP candidate (they are unique in that as other media houses have LDP well ahead.)  It does point out that the JRP is in the race but mostly to push up the JRP PR vote and that the JRP views the PP as a threat on the PR section since the PP candidate is in the race also to push up the PP PR vote.  The PP seems to be campaigning on decentralization of education and more support for home schooling which normally would be JRP themes but the PP is now taking over as their theme.  JRP being around for a while and not having made progress on decentralization allows the PP to steal their message.
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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: July 05, 2022, 06:26:34 AM »

Charts of average approval ratings of Abe(green) Suga(grey) and Kishida(blue) cabinets by age cohort

Abe and Suga's cabinets appealed to younger voters more than older votes while it is the opposite for Kishida.  It seems lower turnout will for sure benefit LDP and high turnout will hurt LDP  this time around whereas in the Abe era it was not as clear.

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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: July 05, 2022, 10:53:23 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2022, 05:12:05 PM by jaichind »

Final Asahi projection

Main takeaway. CDP lost ground to LDP district races meaning 新潟(Niigata) and 山梨(Yamanashi) are turning toward LDP.  But LDP lost ground to independents which means potential surprises losses in 福島(Fukushima) or 福井(Fukui))

LDP also lost ground in PR seats mostly to PP which it seems could win up to 3!!! PR seats.  CDP lost a bit of ground to JRP and DPP PR-wise.




versus from a couple of weeks ago



Single-member districts.  Near sweep of LDP where LDP can only expect to lose 2 out of 32 for sure and 2 more are tossups.


Multi-member districts
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« Reply #358 on: July 05, 2022, 11:53:46 AM »

What are the long-term consequences for the Kansai region and Japanese politics in general if the JRP continues to make gains over the next 10 years?
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: July 05, 2022, 05:09:50 PM »

Kyodo final projection.  It is pretty negative for CDP in district seats like Asahi but pretty optimistic for the CDP PR vote.   And in the opposite to Asahi, it is positive for PNHK and SDP on the PR slate and predicts zero PR seats for PP.   It seems Kyodo and Asahi district projections are similar but are very different for PR.  I guess they have very different takes on where the anti-system vote will go and how much LDP and JRP will lose to PP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #360 on: July 05, 2022, 05:13:53 PM »

What are the long-term consequences for the Kansai region and Japanese politics in general if the JRP continues to make gains over the next 10 years?

Depends on where they make their gains from, LDP or CDP.  Either way, JRP has a better chance than CDP to become socially acceptable in elite circles which could make them a candidate for KP to defect to if JRP expands at the expense of LDP.  This is unlikely as JRP will always be labeled by the LDP as a Kinki party if it becomes a threat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: July 06, 2022, 03:56:58 AM »

富山(Toyama) PR poll (vs 2021 results)

           poll        2021
LDP      48.6        45.7
KP         7.0          8.4
PNHK     0.7          1.3
JRP      10.9        18.4
DPP       3.7          3.5
CDP       6.5        12.7
RS         0.6          2.9
SDP       2.1          2.2
JCP        2.4          5.0
Others   1.2                      (most of this is most likely PP)

LDP-KP as well as DPP and SDP keeping their 2021 levels of support.  JRP CDP RS JCP all has lost ground.  Undecided most likely will mostly go to JRP CDP and RS.
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« Reply #362 on: July 06, 2022, 04:43:10 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2022, 04:46:37 AM by Logical »

Nagano: Lean CDP -> Safe CDP

The Bunshun reported that the LDP candidate for Nagano had a one night stand with a woman in 2012 and impregnated her. They decided to have an abortion since the he was married and she was unwed. In Japan you need the consent of the father of the child to approve an abortion, so the LDP candidate signed off the abortion consent papers using a fake identity and sent her some money to pay for it. He has confirmed this story but claimed that he used a fake name at the request of the woman. Whatever the truth is, forgery is a crime and the LDP candidate will soon be embroiled in legal troubles.
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jaichind
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« Reply #363 on: July 06, 2022, 06:35:30 AM »

Nagano: Lean CDP -> Safe CDP

The Bunshun reported that the LDP candidate for Nagano had a one night stand with a woman in 2012 and impregnated her. They decided to have an abortion since the he was married and she was unwed. In Japan you need the consent of the father of the child to approve an abortion, so the LDP candidate signed off the abortion consent papers using a fake identity and sent her some money to pay for it. He has confirmed this story but claimed that he used a fake name at the request of the woman. Whatever the truth is, forgery is a crime and the LDP candidate will soon be embroiled in legal troubles.

Wow. What news.  I have to look this up.  What is ironic is that the local Nagano newspaper just came out with an assessment that has the LDP candidate slightly ahead.  Most national media outlets have it lean CDP but Asahi just moved it to tossup.  So the race was actually moving in LDP's direction it seems right as this scandal broke.  If there are any legs to this I agree it is over the LDP candidate.  What is funny is the LDP candidate was a Lower House MP since 2012 until last year and I am surprised this scandal was never uncovered until now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #364 on: July 06, 2022, 09:33:13 AM »

Aggregation of media (national and local) assessments of competitive 1- member districts


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jaichind
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« Reply #365 on: July 06, 2022, 05:36:15 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2022, 06:20:03 PM by jaichind »



Final Kyodo 1- member district projection

LDP is ahead in 22
Opposition ahead in 3 青森(Aomori), 山形(Yamagata), 沖縄(Okinawa)
Tossups 7 岩手(Iwate), 秋田(Akita), 新潟(Niigata), 福井(Fukui), 山梨(Yamanashi), 長野(Nagano), 宮崎(Miyazaki)

秋田(Akita) 福井(Fukui) 宮崎(Miyazaki) are surprise tossups since most other media outfits have them as solid  LDP although some do have 福井(Fukui) as competitive

On the flip side 大分(Ōita) which has a DPP, incumbent running is not even considered a tossup which is a surprise.  
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« Reply #366 on: July 06, 2022, 07:09:12 PM »

What are the long-term consequences for the Kansai region and Japanese politics in general if the JRP continues to make gains over the next 10 years?

Bad ones.
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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: July 07, 2022, 04:51:56 AM »

宮崎(Miyazaki) PR poll vs 2021 results

             poll          2021
LDP       38.2          38.9
KP         10.8          16.2
PP           0.8
HRP        0.2
PNHK      0.3            1.7
JRP         3.6            9.1
DPP        4.5            5.3
CDP      12.6           17.2
RS          1.5            2.8
SDP        1.4            3.5
JCP         3.7            5.3

A bunch of KP PR voters is hiding out as LDP PR voters.  Overall the LDP-KP mostly kept their 2021 vote and not a bad poll for CDP JCP and especially DPP.  It is JRP that is not doing so great.  It seems in the deep South the JRP is not making gains from 2021 and could be facing losses to PP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #368 on: July 07, 2022, 06:24:03 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2022, 06:31:54 AM by jaichind »

Analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) has a reasonably lean LDP forecast

PR is

LDP        18
KP           7
PP           2  !!
PNHK       0
JRP          8
DPP         2
CDP         7
RS           2
SDP         1
JCP          3

Looks like he has PP eating up all the anti-system vote sinking PNHK.  JRP beats out CDP as the largest opposition party.  It seems he has JRP eating into DPP to make up for losses to PP.  JCP at 3 means that SDP made it above the PR threshold by eating into JCP and CDP PR votes.  All in all a disaster for the Center-Left and Left forces on the PR slate if true.

Districtwise he has JCP at 2 seats which means JCP beats out CDP for the last 神奈川(Kanagawa) seat.  He has RS at 1 seat which means he has RS beating out JRP for the last 東京(Tokyo) seat.  He has DPP at 2 seats which means DPP most likely won 山形(Yamagata) and beat out JRP for the last 愛知(Aichi) seat.  He has JRP at 5 seats and knowing JRP did not win in 東京(Tokyo) and 愛知(Aichi) it means that JRP beat out CDP for the last 京都(Kyoto) seat.  He has 5 independents which means the OPPN candidate won in 沖縄(Okinawa).  He has CDP at 9 seats and given that CDP already lost 神奈川(Kanagawa)  to JCP and 京都(Kyoto) to JRP this means either CDP lost the last 北海道(Hokkaido) seat to LDP OR lost 岩手(Iwate) to LDP.  So I can pretty much, with two prefectures unknown, piece together a seat-by-seat projection of this chart of final tabulations.

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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: July 07, 2022, 04:45:46 PM »

栃木(Tochigi) PR poll compared to a similar poll in 2019.  LDP lost a lot of ground with JRP gained a lot of ground but that was already reflected in the 2021 results.  CDP lost a bit of ground relative to the 2019 poll which would mean a big loss relative to 2021 results.   PNHK RS SDP and JCP gained ground relative to the 2019 poll.   Others at 0.6 are not good news for PP.  DPP really outperformed polls in 2019 which is not likely to be repeated this time.

             2022 poll      2021 results        2019 results       2019 poll
LDP         36.1               38.1                     40.3                 41.1
KP            6.7                11.7                     12.8                  6.0
PNHK        1.9                 1.5                       2.1                  nil
JRP           7.6               10.3                       4.9                  2.0
DPP           2.6                 4.2                      9.9                  1.8
CDP        13.8                24.5                     18.9                15.0
RS            1.5                 3.6                       3.8                  nil
SDP          1.2                 1.6                       1.0                  0.3
JCP           2.5                 4.5                       5.0                  1.8
Others       0.6                                                                   1.4 (most likely PNHK and RS for 2019)
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: July 07, 2022, 05:04:55 PM »

佐賀(Saga) PR poll vs 2021 results

             poll           2021
LDP       41.0           41.4
KP          5.0           12.8
PP          2.4 !!
PNHK                       1.4
JRP        3.3             6.1
DPP       2.6              3.4
CDP      13.6           25.8
RS                           3.2
SDP                         2.1
JCP        1.6              3.8

CDP lost a lot of ground but JRP is not gaining that much ground.  A lot of KP PR voters hiding out as LDP voters.  PP at 2.4 is very impressive

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« Reply #371 on: July 07, 2022, 05:07:12 PM »

Some more polls
JX did another poll for Nara and Miyazaki. Nara is close between LDP and JRP. In Miyazaki LDP suddenly looks vulnerable but the CDP candidate is still somewhat behind.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/yoneshigekatsuhiro/20220707-00304578

There's also a PR poll for Tokushima and Kochi.
https://www.topics.or.jp/articles/-/732908
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: July 07, 2022, 05:10:46 PM »

茨城(Ibaraki) PR poll vs 2021 results
 
              poll          2021
LDP         37.6        38.1
KP            7.3         14.1
PNHK        0.4          1.3
JRP           7.0          9.9
DPP           3.3         5.9
CDP          7.2        20.2
RS            1.2          3.7
SDP          0.8          1.3
JCP           3.5          5.7
Others       0.7

LDP-KP, DPP, and JCP most likely keeping their 2021 votes while CDP is clearly losing ground to JRP.
 Others at 0.7 most of which I assume is PP.


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jaichind
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« Reply #373 on: July 07, 2022, 05:24:52 PM »

Some more polls
JX did another poll for Nara and Miyazaki. Nara is close between LDP and JRP. In Miyazaki LDP suddenly looks vulnerable but the CDP candidate is still somewhat behind.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/yoneshigekatsuhiro/20220707-00304578

There's also a PR poll for Tokushima and Kochi.
https://www.topics.or.jp/articles/-/732908

In early June they did a PR poll for 高知(Kōchi) and  徳島(Tokushima)

Local media came out with PR polls for 高知(Kōchi) and 徳島(Tokushima) with comparison to 2019 and 2021 PR performance.

高知(Kōchi)
                       2019      2021       2022 poll
LDP                36.09%  37.97%       38.4
KP                  15.29%  14.99%        6.9
PNHK               1.99%    1.24%        0.5
JRP                  4.68%    6.10%        4.8
DPP                 6.55%    3.03%         1.4
CDP               12.03%  21.68%         8.2
RS                   4.47%    3.02%         0.8
SDP                 2.38%    1.55%         0.5
JCP                 15.12%  10.43%        7.0


徳島(Tokushima)
               
                      2019      2021        2022 poll
LDP               38.25%  35.76%        38.9
KP                 16.46%  14.43%         4.4
PNHK              2.80%    1.48%          0.9
JRP                 8.78%  17.04%        11.5
DPP                5.51%    3.89%          1.5
CDP              13.04%   15.59%         5.5
RS                  3.87%    3.76%          0.5
SDP                1.47%    1.17%          0.7
JCP                 8.34%    6.87%          3.8

Once you factor in the fact that many KP PR voters hide out as LDP PR voters and the undecided will break against LDP-KP, this poll indicates LDP-KP is in solid shape, JRP is clearly making gains, and CDP is polling badly.  CDP has to hope the undecides are hidden CDP voters that do not want to make it known they are for CDP but come out election day to vote CDP.

So now we can compare June vs July PR polls

高知(Kōchi)
            July         June
LDP      32.8          38.4
KP          9.1           6.9
PP          1.1           
PNHK     0.1            0.5
JRP        5.5            4.8
DPP        1.8           1.4
CDP       8.0            8.2
RS         0.7            0.8
SDP       2.1             0.5
JCP       14.1            7.0

JCP surge while LDP loses ground.  In 2021 CDP seems to captured part of the JCP PR vote which is now going back to JCP.  PP seems to eat up the anti-system vote from PNHK.

徳島(Tokushima)
            July           June
LDP       37.0           38.9
KP          5.7             4.4
PP          1.5
PNHK      0.2            0.9
JRP       12.3          11.5
DPP        3.7            1.5
CDP        6.9            5.5
RS          3.0            0.5
SDP        0.8            0.7
JCP         3.9            3.8

Everyone makes minor gains against LDP.  PP eats up the PNHK anti-system vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: July 07, 2022, 06:20:19 PM »

Nagano: Lean CDP -> Safe CDP

The Bunshun reported that the LDP candidate for Nagano had a one night stand with a woman in 2012 and impregnated her. They decided to have an abortion since the he was married and she was unwed. In Japan you need the consent of the father of the child to approve an abortion, so the LDP candidate signed off the abortion consent papers using a fake identity and sent her some money to pay for it. He has confirmed this story but claimed that he used a fake name at the request of the woman. Whatever the truth is, forgery is a crime and the LDP candidate will soon be embroiled in legal troubles.

This story sounds a lot like the movie "Rebirth" or "The Eighth-Day Cicada". 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1727825/reviews

In the book then the mini-series and then the movie a woman had an affair with a married man and then got pregnant.  The married man said he cannot divorce his wife and pressured his mistress to get an abortion which she regretted right away.  Then she discovered her married boyfriend's wife was also pregnant.  After his wife gave birth to a girl she kidnapped the girl and raised the girl as her own to make up for her lost child.  After 4-5 years of living on a remote island, she is found out and arrested and the little girl returned to her parents.  The little was never the same by being taken away from who she thought was her mother.  Years later this little girl grows up and also had an affair with a married man and got pregnant.  He also pressures her to get an abortion but after a visit to the remote island where she spent the first 4-5 years of her life, she decides to break the cycle, have the child and raise the child herself as a single mother.

I saw this movie on an airplane on a business trip to Japan years ago.  I always thought the USA pro-life forces should push this movie in the USA as it was a very well-made movie and does a good job of selling anti-abortion argument.
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