Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Open Source Intelligence]

We are now all-in on a Ukrainian victory.

We're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. All-in on Ukrainian victory is we deploy our troops on the ground. If supporters don't want to do that, okay, but you're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. Otherwise as the WaPo op-ed above makes clear, there's been no Ukrainian progress on taking back their territory the last 18 months outside of the retaking of Kherson.

Like I said, I'm all-in on a Ukraine victory.  

I know you from other boards. You're Canadian military correct?

You can be all in, whrn you say we though that equates to governments.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Following Russia's formal withdrawal from the agreement, NATO has suspended the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), originally signed in November 1990, as well. The official end of the end of the Cold War?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-allies-condemn-russias-withdrawal-cfe-treaty-will-suspend-its-operation-2023-11-07/

[bilaps]

Replying in an active thread is not stalking dude 😂. Also I fail to see how “Russia killing tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians is bad” is such a radical position when you supposedly care about civilian casualties so much

Any credible source on Russia killing tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Denying Russian war crimes how revolting on brand. The OHCHR recently put Ukrainian civilian casualties at 27k+ and in the report said the real numbers are likely “significantly higher” but they won’t know until they can access the parts Russia controls and Ukraine’s chief prosecutor said it could be upwards to 100k due to how many people that are now unaccounted for
https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/09/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-24-september-2023
https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-over-10-000-ukrainian-civilians-killed-since-beginning-of-full-scale-invasion/

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-07/russia-s-fiscal-gap-shrinks-again-despite-growing-cost-of-war

"Russia’s Fiscal Gap Shrinks Again Despite Growing Cost of War"

The fiscal gap narrowed to 1.2 trillion rubles ($13 billion), or just 0.7% of Russia’s gross domestic product, at the end of October, Finance Ministry data showed. An increase in oil and gas revenue allowed Russia to cope better than forecast under the budget law, which targeted the deficit at 2% of GDP. 

In the first 10 months of the year, Russia’s expenditures rose by almost 12% compared with the first year of the invasion. 

Despite a surge in war spending in 2023 that seems to continue to accelerate next year, higher-than-expected revenue from higher energy prices due to the Middle East war will now very likely keep the budget deficit within 2% which is a result most just did not expect earlier this year.  The deficit right now is 0.7% of GDP but due to seasonal factors of spending will surge in Dec of this year pushing it to 2% by the end of the year.

The Middle East war is the gift that keeps on giving from Russia's point of view.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-06/ukraine-debates-medical-weed-for-soldiers-suffering-from-trauma

"Ukraine Poised to Legalize Medical Weed to Help Soldiers"

Public support for the initiative is divided, with 37% opposing and 35% in favor, according to a July survey from the Kyiv-based Razumkov Centre. The margin of error was 2.3%.

Not surprisingly, combat veterans are expected to make up a large percentage of users. The number of Ukrainians participating in the war against Russia could reach as many as 4 million, or about 10% of the total population, according to RBC-Ukraine, which cited estimates from Yulia Laputina, the nation’s minister for veterans’ affairs.

Wow, 4 million Ukranians will end up fighting in this war ??!!

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/poland-claims-ukraine-only-dream-191138136.html

"Poland claims Ukraine "can only dream" about EU accession without agreements on exhumation"

It seems Poland will demand a resolution of the Volhynia Massacre during WWII as a price for not blocking its possible future entrance into the EU by Ukraine.  Of course for domestic reasons, especially in Western Ukraine, this might be hard for Ukraine to do.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-morale.html

"‘I Am Dreaming It Will Stop’: A Deadlocked War Tests Ukrainian Morale"

Pessimism over prospects for a quick victory is increasing, and the spirit that infused the first days of the conflict is starting to fade, polls find.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/world/europe/ukraine-war-army-women.html

"‘If Not Me, Who?’: As Ukraine Seeks Troops, Women Prepare for the Call"

With so much hinging on refilling the ranks, efforts are underway to draw more Ukrainian women into the army. Volunteer groups offering all-female training, like the one near Kyiv, are supporting the effort.
About 43,000 women now serve in the Ukrainian military, according to the ministry of defense, an increase of about 40 percent since 2021, the year before Russia’s full-scale invasion. The proportional increase is less than the male fighting force, which has more than tripled over the same period.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1722264085377749234
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1722264104470265914
Rip bozo

[Storr]

" BREAKING: Ukraine and Moldova should start the process of becoming EU members, the European Commission said."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1722216843677667585?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia is attempting to turn to former Soviet customers for military supplies. Not much we didn't already know here, but the WSJ confirms one formerly secret deal: the supply of 100 helicopter engines from Egypt, allegedly to start in a month. Egypt has fewer than 50 Ka-52s - maybe they have spares, but it's also possible they're supplying engines of other types (the "it's technically not military aid" option would be to supply engines for transport/rescue helicopters which are also used in civilian roles).

Military aid to Egypt is bad to begin with, but I suppose we'll see how unconditional it is in the coming weeks. Egypt allegedly pulled out of a previous deal to supply shells after the US found out, but the aid was not openly threatened then.

[Storr]

" BREAKING: Ukraine and Moldova should start the process of becoming EU members, the European Commission said."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1722216843677667585?s=20

Hoes Mad, lmao:

"Moldova risks becoming another victim of western colonial policy, which is carried out openly, brazenly and cynically, in violation of norms international law and the laws of the country, including the constitution.” - secretary of the Russian security council Nikolai Patrushev

[Edit: I assume the "violation...of the laws of the country, including the constitution" Patrushev is talking about is Moldovan neutrality, which is written into the country's constitution.

Ireland and Austria are going to be surprised to learn that being an EU member evidently means losing your country's neutrality.]

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-allowing-foreigners-swap-frozen-funds-blocked-russian-assets-2023-11-08/

"Putin signs decree allowing foreigners to swap frozen funds for blocked Russian assets abroad"

[jaichind]

https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/zelenskyy-promises-to-repay-us-for-aid-to-ukraine-we-will-give-you-money-after-the-war-volodymyr-russia-congress-reppublican-democrat

"Zelenskyy promises to repay US for aid to Ukraine: 'We will give you ... money after the war'"



P.S.  What he meant is that Ukraine will pay the money back minus 10% for the Big Guy

[PSOL]

If Ukraine actually legalizes medical weed, the first of Eastern Europe to do so to my knowledge, that actually speaks to how determined and in touch with reality the current government actually is.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

This is just bad journalism/analysis. If assets are being moved beyond the range of ATACMS which otherwise would not be, this is a demonstrable effect of ATACMS.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

Moving aircraft farther back decreases their sortie rate, reduces the amount of time they can spend over the battlefield, and increases their fuel consumption. It isn’t as effective for Ukraine as destroying them outright, but it still has an impact.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

This is just bad journalism/analysis. If assets are being moved beyond the range of ATACMS which otherwise would not be, this is a demonstrable effect of ATACMS.

The question would then become how beneficial is it for Ukraine that this is happening. And how are they making use of this...

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

Moving aircraft farther back decreases their sortie rate, reduces the amount of time they can spend over the battlefield, and increases their fuel consumption. It isn’t as effective for Ukraine as destroying them outright, but it still has an impact.

No doubt it will have that effect.  The question is how much of an impact.  One thing is likely true.  ATACMS is not a miracle weapon.  Of course in war, it is very likely any miracle weapon really exists anyway.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-army-says-it-needs-3-billion-155-mm-artillery-rounds-production-2023-11-07/

"US Army says it needs $3 billion for 155 mm artillery rounds and production"

The U.S. and allies have sent more than 2 million rounds of 155 ammunition to Ukraine in support of its effort to repel Russia's invasion more than 600 days ago. The U.S. has also sent the artillery to Israel as it fights Hamas.

The U.S. plans to increase its monthly production rate for 155 millimeter artillery shells to 100,000 in 2025.

Ammo math:

So even after investments in production abilities that have not been approved yet the USA production of 155 mm sheels will hit a run rate of 1.2 million a year in 2025.  In the meantime, the USA already sent 2 million rounds to Ukraine and more needs to be sent to Israel.  At this stage, Ukraine will have to live with a lot less ammo than it did a year ago for a while.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1722589374116770164
😱

[Person Man]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-ukraine.html

"News Analysis: Biden Confronts the Limits of U.S. Leverage in Two Conflicts"

Mr. Biden’s aides say they have now given Mr. Zelensky every weapons system he has requested, most recently ATACMS, the long-range missile systems Mr. Biden had long resisted providing because he feared they might cross a “red line” that could lead Mr. Putin to reach for nuclear weapons. Now the fear about the ATACMS is that they will not make that big a difference because the Russians are learning how to park their aircraft beyond the weapons’ reach.

It seems the Russians came up with this totally unprecedented clever solution of moving their assets beyond the reach of  ATACMS.   Amazing !!! How did they come up with something like that?

Moving aircraft farther back decreases their sortie rate, reduces the amount of time they can spend over the battlefield, and increases their fuel consumption. It isn’t as effective for Ukraine as destroying them outright, but it still has an impact.

It also reduces the Russians credibility when instead of reacting to lines being crossed, they simply adapt.

[jaichind]

https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/domaci-cas-hraje-pro-rusko-na-prevahu-ukrajincu-to-nevypada-pavel-mluvi-o-jednani-40450171

"Time is running out for Russia, it doesn't look like the Ukrainians will prevail. Paul is talking about action"

The current situation on the battlefield does not indicate that Ukraine can gain military superiority, and time is now in Russia's favor. President Petr Pavel said this at the Diplomacy and Security conference on Thursday, adding that negotiations could begin next year. However, he pointed out that the West must persist in supporting the attacked Ukraine.

Czech President Petr Pavel says that time is on Russia's side