Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

What a solid research basis it’s not like Russia would underreport their causalities via obituaries or something 🙄

Of course, they might and most likely would.  The key question is that unless the rate they underreport is going up the narrative is still there that the Russian casualty rate is falling since early 2023.

Except for the fact we have video evidence this week alone that would dispute that

[CumbrianLefty]

https://247newsagency.com/sports/269390.html

"Ukrainian chess player shook hands with Russian, bypassing ban"

Well this is good to see.

Perhaps, though I hope neither face repercussions for it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you ask me to place a bet, I look at a negotiated settlement, timeframe of summer 2024 plus or minus a couple months, based on current lines of control because the lines of control have hardly moved the last 18 months, or a minor Russian drawback with a defined in treaty Demilitarized Zone of some kind, and Zelenskyy will give his countrymen the Sold Out Victim Narrative which based on history will manifest itself into something else by the 2040s. If Biden and others in our "Blob" foreign policy world think Trump is too big a threat, even if they think Biden will defeat Trump there's always a good-sized percentage chance he won't (they thought Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump after all), that good-sized percentage chance whatever it is is probably too large a risk for Ukraine and all of Europe looking out into the future and likely endgames..

I think freezing the conflict with the line of control will work for Russia only if Ukraine also agrees to Russia being able to veto Ukraine joining NATO.  Of course, Zelensky cannot survive a deal like that so the war will go on.  If this war took place 1000 years ago it would have ended already.  In a War of Kings and Dukes, both sides could already figure out some compromise and end this costly war.  In the War of the Peoples, this is no longer possible.  

What's the Ukrainian plan of war with reduced outside military support?

Biden, Blinken, and some other countries just have to get Zelenskyy and his staff around a table and say "you can get terms now where we can control our support for you and back you up, or wait until a year from now where we cannot 100% guarantee a person will be in the White House that will give you continued support". Even if you think Biden should win, whatever percentage chance you give he won't win because we all know it's not guaranteed, is an incredibly large risk.

I think most collective West government will suffer a domestic prestige blowback of Ukraine is viewed as "losing" the war.  As a result they will throw in enough resources to avoid Ukraine defeat even as victory is less and less likely.

Most European states (very notably not France because the French have a real military) are hitting the bottom of what they can supply and not affect their own personal defense. If Estonia for example give everything they have to the Ukrainians, there's then nothing to stop Russia coming over the Estonian border. The UK a month or two ago already announced they're there of they've provided everything they can. Procurement for everyone NATO is a bit of a shambles because it was all designed for peacetime and these Wall Street-influenced corporations that were significantly consolidated post-end of the Cold War are not built to run 100% to replenish stocks in a hot war. Here is an American-focused take on our procurement problems the Russo-Ukrainian War has exposed. http://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition

The Europeans are having an argument about what to source for procurement because they can't resupply what is being spent per day. They still have not resolved this (France wants the EU to buy French, the East wants the EU to buy American, Germany at last check did not want to spend the money).

If the West does not have any arms left to give Ukraine, how do they plan on resupplying them? The U.S. is fine, the French are probably fine, but NATO and the EU consists of a heck of a lot more than them. And they're all going to have to spend tons of money to restock when defense-building capacity is limited both by design and choice in a high inflationary environment. This was going to happen even if this war got resolved tomorrow. This war has used up stock equipment sitting in yards and that used up stock will have to get replaced by everyone that supported Ukraine, otherwise they can't support the next conflict that comes up that requires their military.

I look at support less in terms of will and more in terms of means. If you are not supplying men or machinery, your support is not worth a sh*t. If everyone supports Ukraine, they need to get going on procurement NOW. The EU can call a defense ministers meeting into one room, lock the doors, and no one is allowed to leave until they have a common consensus for procurement strategy that starts getting implemented the second the doors become unlocked. That is what Ukraine requires the next year in terms of real support. Otherwise we're just heading to inevitable stalemate and Ukraine will have lost de facto a quarter of its landmass and any coastline on the Sea of Azov in their best case.

German arms deliveries currently planned and intended for Ukraine in the near to medium term future:

- 115 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks (20 delivered in the past)
- 40 Marder infrantry fighting vehicles (60 delivered in the past)
- 50 BATT UMG mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles (16 delivered in the past)
- 18 Bandvagn 206 all-terrain vehicles (46 delivered in the past)
- 18 RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers
- 14 Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers (2 delivered in the past)
- 3 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (49 delivered in the past)
- 5 IRIS-T SLM air defence systems (3 delivered in the past)
- 1 MIM-104 Patriot air defence system (1 delivered in the past)

It's true that the reserves of the German military are pretty much depleted at this point. This is why arms deliveries are increasingly coming directly from the factories of the arms industry, financed by the German government. Great times to be weapons manufacturer, I guess. This is why Rheinmetall managed to enter the DAX stock market index in March of this year.

Speak of the devil:

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1720392259252695256

[oldtimer]

What a solid research basis it’s not like Russia would underreport their causalities via obituaries or something 🙄

Of course, they might and most likely would.  The key question is that unless the rate they underreport is going up the narrative is still there that the Russian casualty rate is falling since early 2023.

Except for the fact we have video evidence this week alone that would dispute that

The one thing that never makes any sense in this War is that both sides estimate enemy losses as lower than what their manpower shortages suggest.

Which is the opposite of the usual propaganda.

[jaichind]

NBC News reports that collective West governments are now pressing Ukraine to consider negotiations with Russia.  Well, there was a proto-deal back in April 2022.  If there are talks now what the Russians will offer will be a deal a lot worse for Ukraine than what was on the offer in April 2022.  I doubt such a deal would be acceptable to Ukraine so the war will go on and the collective West will continue to pay without end.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1720607177180688865

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4292972-ukraine-fears-being-left-in-cold-as-it-congress-battles-over-israel/

"Ukraine fears being left in cold as Congress battles over Israel"

I think Ukraine will get its money eventually once the GOP gets its pound of flesh.  The GOP condition for Israel aid is a cut in IRS funding.  As this article points out the GOP condition for Ukraine aid will be border security spending.

I am sure the Dem condition for Ukraine aid will be 10% for the Big Guy, of course.

[jaichind]

Donations to Japanese NGOs for Ukraine relief have seen a massive drop over time, especially after the start of the conflict in the Middle East.  The Japanese public seems to be moving on from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/nhk_nw9/status/1720786845481463879

[Virginiá]

ZSU hit a shipyard in Kerch with cruise missiles, likely took a missile boat out of duty and did an unknown amount of damage to the shipyard itself.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720917231410860151

This is a better version of the first attack video:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1720833790392639647

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another month with 0.01% gains by Ukraine. They only need 1-2 centuries to win back everything at this rate.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1719805197633945819

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12706353/Kremlin-deliberately-spread-rumour-Putin-died-test-popular-Russians.html

"Kremlin 'deliberately spread rumour that Putin had died to test how popular he is among Russians'"

Putin now weaponizing his death

[CumbrianLefty]

Another month with 0.01% gains by Ukraine. They only need 1-2 centuries to win back everything at this rate.

How long before Russia takes all of Ukraine, its openly stated aim when this war started?

[dead0man]

they'd be a lot further along if we had given them more advanced weapons sooner.  Why were there not 100 Ukrainian pilots in a western F16 flight school within the first week of the invasion with maybe a dozen or so advancing to learning how to train future pilots on the platform?  Why were they not given more, better and sooner anti-missile systems?  Why are we still counting their number of modern armor in the hundreds?  Who argues against these things?  Blame those cowards (or traitors) for Ukraine's lack of offensive successes.

Life I've said before, every dollar (Euro,Pound,etc) spent killing Russians in Ukraine is a dollar well spent.

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/zelenskyy-invites-trump-ukraine-says-just-needs-24-minutes-explain-can-rcna123713

"Zelenskyy invites Trump to Ukraine, says he needs just 24 minutes to explain to him why he ‘can’t bring peace’"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-05/zelenskiy-urges-congress-to-pass-ukraine-aid-or-risk-bigger-war

"Zelenskiy Urges Congress to Pass Ukraine Aid or Risk Bigger War"

“If Russia will kill all of us, they will attack NATO countries and you will send your sons and daughters,” Zelenskiy said in an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press to be broadcast Sunday. “And it will be — I’m sorry, but the price will be higher.”

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/world/europe/zelensky-rebuke-general-zaluzhny.html

"Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership"

Seems Zelensky has his own Douglas MacArthur-like situation.

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-probes-deadly-russian-strike-on-brigade-17296180

"Ukraine Opens Criminal Probe After Strike On Brigade"

At least 20 soldiers were reported to have been killed in the attack, which local media said took place on Friday as a brigade gathered to receive awards in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-diplomat-says-zelensky-visit-now-up-in-the-air-after-leak-to-israeli-tv/

"Ukraine diplomat says Zelensky visit now up in the air after leak to Israeli TV"

After Israel told Zelensky not to visit weeks ago it seems there was another plan for Zelensky to visit Israel.  But it seems leaks of his visit will put his visit on hold.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-diplomat-says-zelensky-visit-now-up-in-the-air-after-leak-to-israeli-tv/

"Ukraine diplomat says Zelensky visit now up in the air after leak to Israeli TV"

After Israel told Zelensky not to visit weeks ago it seems there was another plan for Zelensky to visit Israel.  But it seems leaks of his visit will put his visit on hold.

It seems like he's looking for a reason to (quite sensibly!) revoke the request. Doing that while minimising offence is a challenge, but their relationship with the rest of the Middle East is more important and a visit now would jeopardise that.

[Hollywood]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-diplomat-says-zelensky-visit-now-up-in-the-air-after-leak-to-israeli-tv/

"Ukraine diplomat says Zelensky visit now up in the air after leak to Israeli TV"

After Israel told Zelensky not to visit weeks ago it seems there was another plan for Zelensky to visit Israel.  But it seems leaks of his visit will put his visit on hold.

Ukraine needs to stop leaking information to the media.  This has been a huge problem for them.  They get overly zealous about diplomatic announcement.  Israelis don't play that way.  Everything is off the books.  Nothing is repeated.  Security threats are kept to a medium. 

We are now all-in on a Ukrainian victory.  Money and weapons will be sent to them, but we can't have Russia knowing about it.  Feed them s@@t and keep them in the dark.   

Zelensky's parents live in Israel.  We've already granted Zelensky asylum should he be defeated. Let's make sure that doesn't happen.   

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/status/1721171478836597066
A good thread breaking down the consequences of Russia doing a “Leeroy Jenkins” run in October

[CanadianDemocrat]

they'd be a lot further along if we had given them more advanced weapons sooner.  Why were there not 100 Ukrainian pilots in a western F16 flight school within the first week of the invasion with maybe a dozen or so advancing to learning how to train future pilots on the platform?  Why were they not given more, better and sooner anti-missile systems?  Why are we still counting their number of modern armor in the hundreds?  Who argues against these things?  Blame those cowards (or traitors) for Ukraine's lack of offensive successes.

Life I've said before, every dollar (Euro,Pound,etc) spent killing Russians in Ukraine is a dollar well spent.

The US has only sent 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, despite having 2500 in active service and 3700 tanks in long term storage. That is a low number for a military superpower like the US to send less then 1% of their M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, who desperately need advanced Western tanks.

The US has the most tanks in NATO, they should 300-400 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

they'd be a lot further along if we had given them more advanced weapons sooner.  Why were there not 100 Ukrainian pilots in a western F16 flight school within the first week of the invasion with maybe a dozen or so advancing to learning how to train future pilots on the platform?  Why were they not given more, better and sooner anti-missile systems?  Why are we still counting their number of modern armor in the hundreds?  Who argues against these things?  Blame those cowards (or traitors) for Ukraine's lack of offensive successes.

Life I've said before, every dollar (Euro,Pound,etc) spent killing Russians in Ukraine is a dollar well spent.

The US has only sent 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, despite having 2500 in active service and 3700 tanks in long term storage. That is a low number for a military superpower like the US to send less then 1% of their M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, who desperately need advanced Western tanks.

The US has the most tanks in NATO, they should 300-400 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

It’s seriously frustrating how many Ukrainian lives could of been saved if Biden approved clusters, ATACMs, F16s, and sent hundreds of Abrams back in November last year when Kherson got liberated coming off the heels of the Kharkiv campaign. I honestly think the administration slow walks this aid because they’re afraid of Ukraine winning too quickly that it either collapses Putin’s regime and Russia descends into chaos or they go nuclear

[bilaps]

Russians keep losing staggering amount of armor, yet Ukraine can't advance an inch nowhere on the frontline. And people still buy what all these morons on twitter are selling.

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1721081203904667878

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/05/ukraine-counteroffensive-stalled-strategy-congress/

"Ukraine’s supporters need to rethink their theory of victory"

Ukraine’s counteroffensive was supposed to sustain political support for Kyiv by proving that it could reconquer lost territory. Now, supporters of Ukraine might need to make the inverse argument: Ukraine is not reconquering substantial territory, and aid is needed indefinitely to forestall a devastating defeat.

[Open Source Intelligence]

We are now all-in on a Ukrainian victory.

We're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. All-in on Ukrainian victory is we deploy our troops on the ground. If supporters don't want to do that, okay, but you're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. Otherwise as the WaPo op-ed above makes clear, there's been no Ukrainian progress on taking back their territory the last 18 months outside of the retaking of Kherson.