Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gazprom PMC now active in Ukraine, among others. There were always a few more groups than Wagner (smaller, but present), but they were - to my knowledge - just dedicated mercenary groups rather than the military arms of wider franchises.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1651163200732254208

A really bad omen for post-conflict Russia, and unfortunately part of a wider pattern when it comes to the 21st century PMC renaissance.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1650687042609659909
Hope Andjey is okay as I heard he was near here ☹️

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1651224463793348610
And once again we see the catch-22 argument (this time from Xi) of “you have to negotiate a settlement because Putin is going to go nuclear if you don’t but you can totally trust him to honor a treaty”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1650791012757909506?s=20

"People lived there."

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1651254241871233033?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1651238536438337541?s=20

[Woody]

7-8% of Bakhmut is under Ukrainian control. (According to Suriyak, DeepstateUA, Perpetua). Russians had another breakthrough today, through Chaikovsky. Ukrainians are heavily reinforcing the flanks, so they are stable. Still very dangerous to drive through it's supply road.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1651280349840785414?cxt=HHwWjIC-zdauw-otA...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

2. A small minority of Portuguese people that are loud and still butthurt/resented about Brazil being independent global player with more presence than them that they like to be Anti-Brazil just for the sake of it.

Just want to savor the moment of the guys that’s cheerleading an imperial war of conquest because of something something west bad complaining about ‘Anti-Brazil’ sentiment.

[Woody]

After Bakhmut, will Wagner be pushing towards Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, or Chasiv Yar?

https://twitter.com/DefensePolitics/status/1651227372463464450

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1651254331394383873?s=20

[Storr]

"This cannot end well, this will end with hell. People will be killing each other, [I guess these "businessmen" don't care too much about the people being killed in Ukraine.]  slashing on the streets of Moscow. It is only a matter of time until it happens. This can happen in five, seven, ten years. But this will definitely happen - it is a one way road."

Rest of tweet: "...is over 40 minutes, but the 5-minute snippet contains the juiciest bits. Translation by us included.

Whether the call is real is impossible to establish, but it could well have similar objectives as the call released last month between Iosif Prigozhin and Farkhad Akhmetov: to distance themselves from the Russian authorities, and "wash off their sins", remove sanctions.

The call was published by "Nastoyashee Vremya" agency.

Post your favourite screenshots below."
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1651268271151235083?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1651167988089847809?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1651091512086654976

[Pericles]

WTF I love Joe Wilson now.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

WTF I love Joe Wilson now.

He was always a fairly mainstream, old-school Republican, that one moment aside.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1651250227297366019?s=20

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1651250227297366019?s=20

That's essentially what they did with Crimea and the pre-Feb. 2022 Donbas. All of the pro-Ukrainian people fled leaving only the few pro-Russians and those that did not care. All of the empty houses were then filled by Russian squatters.

[Damocles]

WTF I love Joe Wilson now.

He was always a fairly mainstream, old-school Republican, that one moment aside.

Obama: “There are also those who claim that our reform efforts would insure illegal immigrants. This, too, is FALSE!”

(lawmakers whispering and chattering seemingly disapprovingly and skeptically)

Obama: “The reforms… (Wilson: “You lie!”) The reforms I am proposing would not apply to those who are here illegally.”

Wilson: “YOU LIE!”

(lawmakers hooting and hollering and booing, general commotion)

Obama: “…It’s not true. Not true. And one more, misunderstanding I want to clear up. Under our plan, no federal dollars will be used to fund abortions. And federal conscience laws will remain in place.”

[AndyHogan14]

I really wish NATO could *actually* get involved. The war would be over in a matter of days (if not hours) with residual mop up duty lasting a week or so. Ha!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Gazprom PMC now active in Ukraine, among others. There were always a few more groups than Wagner (smaller, but present), but they were - to my knowledge - just dedicated mercenary groups rather than the military arms of wider franchises.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1651163200732254208

A really bad omen for post-conflict Russia, and unfortunately part of a wider pattern when it comes to the 21st century PMC renaissance.

Russia is increasingly turning into its version of Pondsmith's Cyberpunk.

[NOVA Green]

New Discord document leak courtesy of The Washington Post.

Certain (hypothetical) Pro-Putin boosters on this very sub-thread might be interested in the financial future viability of the Russian economy and how long Putin's 10+ year "cash stash" designed to withstand Western sanctions might last.

Looks like Russia will likely be able to afford the war for another year, with major caveats.

Still, makes me wonder if we need to tighten the screws tighter, especially regarding secondary sanctions, which will more than off-set the illegal money laundering and human rights abuses committed by Wagner group in Sudan, as well as other African countries where they have effectively seized significant control of natural resources.

You gotta pay to play, so limiting my quotes to what is a much longer article, but worth a click if you got an extra free article remaining to venture behind the paywall.

U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under the heavy and increasing weight of unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents.

The previously unreported documents provide a rare glimpse into Washington’s understanding of the effectiveness of its own economic measures, and of the tenor of the response they have met in Russia, where U.S. intelligence finds that senior officials, agencies and the staff of oligarchs are fretting over the painful disruptions — and adapting to them.

While some of Russia’s economic elites might not agree with the country’s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to an assessment that appears to date from early March.

“Moscow is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and businesses adaptability to help mitigate economic pressures,” reads part of the assessment, which is labeled top secret, the highest level of classification.

The document does not address the impact of newly imposed sanctions or the long-term pain of oil price ceilings in Europe. Russian oil revenue has plummeted.

While the documents do not include in-depth discussion of their sources, they are marked with a code indicating the data was gleaned from intercepted communications. That suggests that the United States has gained access to the channels where Russian figures privately discuss how to limit the impact of sanctions.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, U.S. intelligence found, had drafted a letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in early March to seek backing for contingency plans to avoid a “potentially embarrassing collapse” of Russian state-controlled entities such as the International Investment Bank, the International Bank for Economic Cooperation and the Eurasian Investment Bank, because of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

According to another document, U.S. intelligence found that officials at Russia’s top intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, were concerned about the insufficient amount of foreign currency held by domestic Russian banks. These officials also warned that the United States could impose secondary sanctions on the Chinese companies that still did business with Russia, and urged that such transactions be kept secret.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/26/russia-sanctions-impact-leaked-documents/

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Discord document leak courtesy of The Washington Post.

Certain (hypothetical) Pro-Putin boosters on this very sub-thread might be interested in the financial future viability of the Russian economy and how long Putin's 10+ year "cash stash" designed to withstand Western sanctions might last.

Looks like Russia will likely be able to afford the war for another year, with major caveats.

Still, makes me wonder if we need to tighten the screws tighter, especially regarding secondary sanctions, which will more than off-set the illegal money laundering and human rights abuses committed by Wagner group in Sudan, as well as other African countries where they have effectively seized significant control of natural resources.

You gotta pay to play, so limiting my quotes to what is a much longer article, but worth a click if you got an extra free article remaining to venture behind the paywall.

U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under the heavy and increasing weight of unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents.

The previously unreported documents provide a rare glimpse into Washington’s understanding of the effectiveness of its own economic measures, and of the tenor of the response they have met in Russia, where U.S. intelligence finds that senior officials, agencies and the staff of oligarchs are fretting over the painful disruptions — and adapting to them.

While some of Russia’s economic elites might not agree with the country’s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to an assessment that appears to date from early March.

“Moscow is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and businesses adaptability to help mitigate economic pressures,” reads part of the assessment, which is labeled top secret, the highest level of classification.

The document does not address the impact of newly imposed sanctions or the long-term pain of oil price ceilings in Europe. Russian oil revenue has plummeted.

While the documents do not include in-depth discussion of their sources, they are marked with a code indicating the data was gleaned from intercepted communications. That suggests that the United States has gained access to the channels where Russian figures privately discuss how to limit the impact of sanctions.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, U.S. intelligence found, had drafted a letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in early March to seek backing for contingency plans to avoid a “potentially embarrassing collapse” of Russian state-controlled entities such as the International Investment Bank, the International Bank for Economic Cooperation and the Eurasian Investment Bank, because of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

According to another document, U.S. intelligence found that officials at Russia’s top intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, were concerned about the insufficient amount of foreign currency held by domestic Russian banks. These officials also warned that the United States could impose secondary sanctions on the Chinese companies that still did business with Russia, and urged that such transactions be kept secret.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/26/russia-sanctions-impact-leaked-documents/

An stuff like this won’t help lol
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-741352

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651302068496531457?cxt=HHwWgoDUme-ezeotAAAA

[Woody]

Ukrainian authorities pressed charges against some of it's SBU officers due to a supposedly botched plot last July. Around the same time Ivan Bakanov, Zelensky's childhood friend was suspended as SBU's head for Article 47 - “non-performance (improper performance) of official duties, which caused human casualties or other serious consequences or created a threat of such consequences.”.

They made contact with a Russian pilot in hopes that he would defect (in-reality, an intercepted double agent for the FSB) hoping to fly his jet to one of their airfields. They disclosed the airfield and Russia fired Kalibrs right after. Uncertainty if the operation was state-sanctioned, and if there were casualties.

In a bizarre plot to seize Russian aircraft and transfer the planes to Ukraine, the accused soldiers disclosed sensitive information that allowed Moscow to strike an important Ukrainian airfield with a Kalibr missile. A commander was killed, 17 airmen were wounded, two fighter jets destroyed, and “significant damage” was inflicted to the airstrip and several nearby buildings.

https://thegrayzone.com/2023/04/26/bellingcats-ukrainian-forces-killed/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WTF I love Joe Wilson now.

Didn't he propose that a bust of Zelensky be placed in the Capitol or something? He certainly seems to be among the most pro-Ukraine members of Congress regardless.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gazprom PMC now active in Ukraine, among others. There were always a few more groups than Wagner (smaller, but present), but they were - to my knowledge - just dedicated mercenary groups rather than the military arms of wider franchises.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1651163200732254208

A really bad omen for post-conflict Russia, and unfortunately part of a wider pattern when it comes to the 21st century PMC renaissance.

It will be important for post-war Russia's leader, whoever that may be, to have the strength to be able to keep all these groups under control.
The dark days of the 1990s could well return.