Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Possible air barrage coming these next few hours & missiles from the Russian Black Sea fleet.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1652761794706825219?cxt=HHwWhoCz_Y6G5e8t...
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1652772428462927872?cxt=HHwWgMC90Yrx6e8t...
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1652765799705083904?cxt=HHwWgICwxZ7v5u8t...

[oldtimer]

Again, its not actually that easy to do (probably rightly)

Plus some may still be hoping that a degree of sense returns there post-Orban.

It's eastern european tribal politics.

Hungary wants transcarpathia, Orban is simply riding longstanding hungarian public opinion on that.

So unless Ukraine agrees on giving it to Hungary, it will always be a problem.

[Storr]

American Patriots perhaps?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1652775189153820672

I'd wager they were S-300 missiles.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1652802425470824454?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine seems to be answering back
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1652772003039031296

[Storr]

It is easy to forget even if a truce or ceasefire was agreed to along the current front lines, Ukraine still will have won the war.

The goal of the February 2022 invasion was regime change. Talk about "reclaiming" lost territories and annexation referendums only starting being floated about by Russia propaganda after Russia had to withdraw from the Kyiv area, acknowledging it couldn't overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1652759414116327426?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

It is easy to forget even if a truce or ceasefire was agreed to along the current front lines, Ukraine still will have won the war.

The goal of the February 2022 invasion was regime change. Talk about "reclaiming" lost territories and annexation referendums only starting being floated about by Russia propaganda after Russia had to withdraw from the Kyiv area, acknowledging it couldn't overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1652759414116327426?s=20

On a general warfare level that’s true but allowing Russia to hold so much of southern Ukraine and do god knows what to the locals would be a very bitter pill to swallow for a “victory”

[Storr]

Sharing this, because this quote could only come from a Soviet/Russian mindset (Stalin is consistently rated as Russia's greatest/best leader in public polling despite...you know having killed millions):

"Controversial statement, and one might disagree with me: if Hitler hadn't exterminated as many Jews as he did, they ["the West"] would have exonerated Hitler long ago, too."

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1652779480803336192?s=20

[Storr]

It is easy to forget even if a truce or ceasefire was agreed to along the current front lines, Ukraine still will have won the war.

The goal of the February 2022 invasion was regime change. Talk about "reclaiming" lost territories and annexation referendums only starting being floated about by Russia propaganda after Russia had to withdraw from the Kyiv area, acknowledging it couldn't overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1652759414116327426?s=20

On a general warfare level that’s true but allowing Russia to hold so much of southern Ukraine and do god knows what to the locals would be a very bitter pill to swallow for a “victory”

Yes, I agree. It would still be a bad outcome for Ukraine, even if a victory because Zelensky's government remains in power. I was trying to expound on the tweet's message that the remarkable things Ukraine has achieved already is often overlooked in western media. I'm assuming it's because the war has been at a stalemate (more or less) since November.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's more than one valid way to define a victory.
It's true Ukraine's successful defiance of Moscow is an overlooked success. But it's still a net gain for Russia, all things considered, for a ceasefire on current lines to take shape.
As such, calling it an unambiguous Russian defeat feels kind of wrong to me.
Reminder that obliging Russia to do anything might be harder than it may seem. Post-1905, I think Japan was owed some level of reparations from Russia - and the Tsar simply didn't pay up. And that was in the era before nuclear weapons.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1652826838647861249
☹️

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I doubt this will generate the results Russian high command wants.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I doubt this will generate the results Russian high command wants.

It’s going to kill alot of civilians ☹️

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I doubt this will generate the results Russian high command wants.

It’s going to kill alot of civilians ☹️

In late 2019, around 80% of Ukrainians had a favorable view of Russians as a people and vice versa.
I was saying earlier that Ukrainians and Russians are effectively one people, given the manifold similarities (same with Canadians and Americans). By the time the full ramifications of this war have manifested themselves, though, there's a decent chance that won't be true anymore.

By trying to force Ukraine and Russia closer together, Putin is only making them more separate.
I doubt the Ukrainians who saw members of their family killed by Russian military actions are going to ultimately think more highly of Russia for it. Give them ten or more years and that child might be a soldier motivated by what you have done.

Guns are, after all, tools, and Ukraine is in fact a fairly well-armed country. Putin's creating an entire generation of, understandably, angry Ukrainians. In the long-term, Russia might gain quite a bit of land, but the cost it is paying to get to that point might be enough to make Russia's (historically justified) fears of vulnerability even worse; a Ukraine with an electorate composed of anti-Russian voters is a Ukraine where making a deal with Russia could be abject political suicide.

In isolation, this bombing is shock-and-awe tactics that both America and Russia have done, and a sad show of what misery war brings. In a broader picture, it's first and foremost a sign as to the failure of Putin's Ukraine policy, on multiple levels. Even his frozen conflict model kind of backfired here; Ukraine's military had experience because it was fighting pro-Moscow proxies, in turn giving Ukraine the ability to resist his invasion in February 2022.

From a purely Russian power-driven POV, Putin should not have tried to take Crimea and created proxies in the Donbass in hindsight, that singlehandedly turned Ukraine into a country no longer with a pro-Russian demographic majority. If he really wanted to ensure Ukraine fell under Russian influence, he might have had more luck completely invading in 2014 and not done half-measures, or better yet, not intervened at all. But Putin has made his bed. Now he gets to sleep in it.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1652838944797519877?s=20

[CanadianDemocrat]

It is easy to forget even if a truce or ceasefire was agreed to along the current front lines, Ukraine still will have won the war.

The goal of the February 2022 invasion was regime change. Talk about "reclaiming" lost territories and annexation referendums only starting being floated about by Russia propaganda after Russia had to withdraw from the Kyiv area, acknowledging it couldn't overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1652759414116327426?s=20

Ukraine has liberated 63% of the territory taken by Russia since February 24th 2022. Russia hasn't taken a major Ukrainian city in 10 months since July. It's odd how the West doubts the Ukrainian ability to liberate the rest, consider how well Ukraine has done the last year.

Russia is completely out of gas offensively, having launched failed human wave assaults trying to take Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Avdiivka.

[Storr]

It is easy to forget even if a truce or ceasefire was agreed to along the current front lines, Ukraine still will have won the war.

The goal of the February 2022 invasion was regime change. Talk about "reclaiming" lost territories and annexation referendums only starting being floated about by Russia propaganda after Russia had to withdraw from the Kyiv area, acknowledging it couldn't overthrow the Ukrainian government.

https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1652759414116327426?s=20

Ukraine has liberated 63% of the territory taken by Russia since February 24th 2022. Russia hasn't taken a major Ukrainian city in 10 months since July. It's odd how the West doubts the Ukrainian ability to liberate the rest, consider how well Ukraine has done the last year.

Russia is completely out of gas offensively, having launched failed human wave assaults trying to take Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Avdiivka.

"Plokhy describes the current conflict as “an old-fashioned imperial war” conducted by Russian elites who see themselves as “heirs and continuators” of great-power traditions. These expansionist ideas come from Russia and the Soviet Union. The Kremlin’s aggression, he suggests, is a 19th-century land grab, fought using 20th-century battlefield tactics and 21st-century weaponry."

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652840508811538432?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1652866590935842816
Patriots did their job 💪

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

An actual Irish Freedom Fighter. Much better than Gully Foyle or anyone who ever had anything to do with the IRA. RIP: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irishman-finbar-cafferkey-died-battling-29830423

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1652866590935842816
Patriots did their job 💪

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1652897821417152520?s=20

[2952-0-0]

https://archive.ph/NkxYU

South Africa's Foreign Ministry has obtained legal advice stating that there will be no choice but to arrest Putin if he were to attend the BRICS summit in person, and therefore he would have to attend by Zoom.

[Badger]

https://archive.ph/NkxYU

South Africa's Foreign Ministry has obtained legal advice stating that there will be no choice but to arrest Putin if he were to attend the BRICS summit in person, and therefore he would have to attend by Zoom.

You love to see it!

[Woody]

Previous Soviet S-300s are shrinking by the days. Ukraine's supply of Western AD is no where near sent in enough quantity to replace it's predecessors.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1652770740523917313

The leaks showed that while still intact, the Ukrainian AD network was stretched very thin due to dwindling missile stockpiles and western systems not existing in large enough numbers.

This explains the increase in strikes on AD targets in the past weeks and days.

The West needs to speed up and increase the focus on delivering assets that can be used for air defense. Whether these are direct AD assets, aircraft or long range weapons to strike Russian air assets on the ground.

If the Russian military is able to degrade the Ukrainian medium and long range air defense assets enough to where the VKS can operate at medium altitudes over larger parts of Ukraine, it can have big consequences.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The Russian terrorist state continues to attack civilians again before sunset. What cowards.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Russian terrorist state continues to attack civilians again before sunset. What cowards.

[Storr]

Russia steals, the EU gives.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652870461309501445?s=20