Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1630901157152301057

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm increasingly thinking that UA sees a Battle of Bakhmut continuing as long as possible as good for some grand gameplan.

[Woody]

Potential escalation or false flag?

Lyubichane, Bryansk Oblast - Russian media, FSB and other law enforcement agencies is claiming that the group went in to this border village from Northern Ukraine and took some of the villagers hostage & 2 children got wounded. Another village not far (Sushany), saboteur groups blew up a gas station. If this isn't a false flag, this would be the first time Ukrainians has been sending conventional forces into Russian territory. The "RDK" released these videos below:

Putin is reportedly going to have an emergency meeting of the Security Council in relation to this.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631242033791729667
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631243904811925505

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1631238645490364420

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1631261423291748353

[Logical]

That is so fake and bizzare I don't even know where to begin. Then again false flags aren't meant to convince anyone, but to create a pretext.

[jaichind]

This feels like an Ukrainian reconnaissance mission that was discovered and cornered forcing them to take hostages in a desperate attempt to escape alive veruse taking hostages as the main mission.  Either way I applaud Ukraine's attempt to take the fight to Russia. 

[jaichind]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-winning-the-world-order-is-changing-in-his-favour/

"Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour"

Some signs that some in the UK CON are thinking of breaking with the Boris Johnson line on the war.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1631266427121586177

[Woody]

One of those guys in the video was interview by a Ukrainian network 4 months ago - "Russian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine":

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-winning-the-world-order-is-changing-in-his-favour/

"Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour"

Some signs that some in the UK CON are thinking of breaking with the Boris Johnson line on the war.

Hmmm, as a UK based poster (even if very much not a Tory) count me strongly sceptical about this.

And, of course, define "winning"?

Almost literally whatever happens now, its nearly impossible to see how Putin conquers the entirety of Ukraine - which, whatever the spin put on things afterwards, was his clear aim at the start of the war. Even a relatively modest target like taking Odessa to deprive the enemy of its sea access, to take just one example, seems a very long way away at present.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Interesting but apparently there a rumblings from Ukraine sources on Telegram that there are tunnels between Chasiv Yar and Bakmut to keep it supplied and rotate soldiers out. Might explain why they are choosing to stay in the city

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Interesting but apparently there a rumblings from Ukraine sources on Telegram that there are tunnels between Chasiv Yar and Bakmut to keep it supplied and rotate soldiers out. Might explain why they are choosing to stay in the city

That seems like a wild rumor made up by someone who wants to imagine there’s a grand plan at Bakhmut. The Ukrainian command will hopefully come to their senses soon and pull back to more defensible lines.

Even if that rumor is true, it’s a terrible idea. “Getting encircled is fine because we can still resupply” isn’t something that’s ever actually worked (Stalingrad being the prime example).

[Woody]

Gradual withdrawal (or advancement) from left bank of the Bakhmutovka.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1631319596526436354
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1631276772489560064

[Hindsight was 2020]

Interesting but apparently there a rumblings from Ukraine sources on Telegram that there are tunnels between Chasiv Yar and Bakmut to keep it supplied and rotate soldiers out. Might explain why they are choosing to stay in the city

That seems like a wild rumor made up by someone who wants to imagine there’s a grand plan at Bakhmut. The Ukrainian command will hopefully come to their senses soon and pull back to more defensible lines.

Even if that rumor is true, it’s a terrible idea. “Getting encircled is fine because we can still resupply” isn’t something that’s ever actually worked (Stalingrad being the prime example).

I don’t think the rumor was pushing a  “Getting encircled is fine because we can still resupply” argument but a “Ukraine is staying as long as they are because they can get the troops out safely” but granted that was more my reading

[Woody]

Khromove is still holding out

https://twitter.com/newsmap_pl/status/1631336715951513611

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1631346957640769546
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1631346963122724866

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

That is so fake and bizzare I don't even know where to begin. Then again false flags aren't meant to convince anyone, but to create a pretext.

In this case it's 100% not a false flag. One of the flag holders is White Rex, the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps and a notorious neo-Nazi.

Among the ultras of “Cologne” Nikitin was an authority: according to him, he forced the leader to get rid of “foreign elements”. “The former life of the group, where some incomprehensible devils, gypsies and Turks came out, is long gone,” Nikitin said. He advocates “white supremacy” and calls non-white people “Arabs and other monkeys.”

The only outstanding question is exactly how the shootout went down, not who the participants were.

As a side note, while Putin may be a murderous tyrant and ultimate responsibility lies with him, I feel like a lot of Westerners actively avoid uncomfortable information about the various nasty characters fighting alongside the Ukrainians. The literal Neo-Nazis and ultranationalists might not control Ukraine but, like Al-Qaeda in the Soviet-Afghan war, are using the conflict to their own benefit. White Rex already controls his own heavily armed private SS battalion. As the war drags on the depleted regular military forces of both sides will get replaced by mercenaries like Wagner and social media savvy militias like the RVC, a grim sign for PoWs or civilians in the area.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1631331974756409359

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1631350863636619280?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-winning-the-world-order-is-changing-in-his-favour/

"Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour"

Some signs that some in the UK CON are thinking of breaking with the Boris Johnson line on the war.

Hmmm, as a UK based poster (even if very much not a Tory) count me strongly sceptical about this.

And, of course, define "winning"?

Almost literally whatever happens now, its nearly impossible to see how Putin conquers the entirety of Ukraine - which, whatever the spin put on things afterwards, was his clear aim at the start of the war. Even a relatively modest target like taking Odessa to deprive the enemy of its sea access, to take just one example, seems a very long way away at present.

My point is not if Putin is winning or not because the definition of winning is in the eye of the beholder.  My point is that magazine that used to be edited by Boris Johnson now seems to move toward a line on the war that is very different from Boris Johnson.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-winning-the-world-order-is-changing-in-his-favour/

"Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour"

Some signs that some in the UK CON are thinking of breaking with the Boris Johnson line on the war.

Hmmm, as a UK based poster (even if very much not a Tory) count me strongly sceptical about this.

And, of course, define "winning"?

Almost literally whatever happens now, its nearly impossible to see how Putin conquers the entirety of Ukraine - which, whatever the spin put on things afterwards, was his clear aim at the start of the war. Even a relatively modest target like taking Odessa to deprive the enemy of its sea access, to take just one example, seems a very long way away at present.

My point is not if Putin is winning or not because the definition of winning is in the eye of the beholder.  My point is that magazine that used to be edited by Boris Johnson now seems to move toward a line on the war that is very different from Boris Johnson.

Yes. It's not edited by Boris Johnson anymore. As you said, yourself. In that same paragraph.

Honestly, you clowns disgust me. I would be curious how you sleep at night, but I know that you have previously stated that homeless people starving to death isn't the worst idea in the world and that burning down the Amazon was justified if it made your stocks go up.

There are Ukrainian-Americans in my region who have lost loved ones in the conflict, some children and some civilian.

You and Woodbury are spitting on their graves.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

That is so fake and bizzare I don't even know where to begin. Then again false flags aren't meant to convince anyone, but to create a pretext.

In this case it's 100% not a false flag. One of the flag holders is White Rex, the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps and a notorious neo-Nazi.

Among the ultras of “Cologne” Nikitin was an authority: according to him, he forced the leader to get rid of “foreign elements”. “The former life of the group, where some incomprehensible devils, gypsies and Turks came out, is long gone,” Nikitin said. He advocates “white supremacy” and calls non-white people “Arabs and other monkeys.”

The only outstanding question is exactly how the shootout went down, not who the participants were.

As a side note, while Putin may be a murderous tyrant and ultimate responsibility lies with him, I feel like a lot of Westerners actively avoid uncomfortable information about the various nasty characters fighting alongside the Ukrainians. The literal Neo-Nazis and ultranationalists might not control Ukraine but, like Al-Qaeda in the Soviet-Afghan war, are using the conflict to their own benefit. White Rex already controls his own heavily armed private SS battalion. As the war drags on the depleted regular military forces of both sides will get replaced by mercenaries like Wagner and social media savvy militias like the RVC, a grim sign for PoWs or civilians in the area.

The situation is still extremely murky but right now broadly speaking there are four main narratives of what happened:

1. The Official Russian Narrative: A gang of mad terrorists broke across the border, rampaging through the Bryansk countryside and either shot up a school bus or took a bunch of people hostage. After shooting an indeterminate number of innocent people they were driven back across the border, where they were all obliterated by artillery.

2. The  Russian Milblogger Narrative: Two groups of attackers hit the village of Liubuchane, the first engaging Russian forces nearby while the second got photo ops and engaged in some minor sabotage before withdrawing across the border. At some point a car with a 10 year old boy was shot by the attackers: the driver died instantly but the boy survived after surgery at the local hospital. The "sabotage/PR" group escaped in good order, possibly not even taking casualties, but the "assault" group took substantial losses in the retreat or was even sacrificed to allow the others to escape.

3. The RDK/RVC Narrative: Around 50 "Russian Patriots" crossed the border with ease after overcoming a lone border guard. Approaching Liubuchane they managed to ambush two Russian vehicles, engage in some minor sabotage, fly their flag over some local buildings and escape with minimal losses.

4. The WindsofChange Narrative: The FSB were planning a false flag "terrorist attack" implicating the Ukrainians from the start, but the SBU got wind of it. So when the FSB cleared away the Russian army from the area to allow the fake terrorists safe passage to commit fake atrocities the SBU sent the RDK in to attack the FSB, throwing their plan into chaos. A twitter thread explaining this theory:

 https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1631360259553132544

The first doesn't pass the smell test on any level. Liubuchane is a tiny village with a population of around 200 that was shrinking even before it became a literal warzone. My understanding is that most people in such border villages evacuated to the cities, so it makes little sense that there would be any significant number of hostages to take. Such an event would also leave direct witnesses and obvious evidence, neither of which has been produced. The closest is the claim that a boy in the Bryansk hospital had NATO caliber bullet removed from his chest, but neither the boy nor the bullet have been revealed. Also, the apparent survival of White Rex and his famous (by internet Neo-Nazi standards, anyway) buddies that were all ID'd in the village suggests that they weren't wiped out by artillery.

While the "FSB/SBU Inside Job" theory explains the bizarre behaviour of pro-Kremlin press around this incident, it has plenty of its own flaws. For one, if the SBU actually clowned an attempted FSB false flag then they'd definitely say so, instead of letting the Kremlin (ineptly try to) control the narrative. It also isn't really clear how a false flag would benefit Putin at this stage; the region has already been shelled and subject to commando raids for months now, the only difference this time is that the attackers openly wore uniforms and yellow armbands while waving rebel flags. Though the response of the SBU has made it pretty clear that the RDK are operating under their control:

https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290725257080834

Which leaves the two plausible scenarios, the one provided by the Russian milbloggers and the one straight from the RDK. Not exactly the best sources but you work with what you have, and the evidence seems to lie somewhere between those two positions. While rooms full of hostages in a tiny dying border village seem implausible, a single car getting caught in a crossfire is believable, as is the possibility that Putin would make it up entirely to cover up the embarrassment of a gang of Instagram Nazis taking over his village and bragging about it online. The RDK could have easily caught local defenders by surprise and taken them out with minimal resistance, or they could have had a hard fought battle that they only escaped with heavy losses. Either story would leave plenty of evidence that will come out over the coming days. But all we have so far is the video of the RDK in the village with gunfire heard some distance away and claims that four Rosguards were injured by a land mine left by the attackers.

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1631242282434215938

EDIT: According to their official Telegram channel the RDK is going to provide a "refutation" of the Russian narrative. Presumably in the form of some good old fashioned Go-Pro combat videos, the essential recruitment tool of any would-be militia in 2023.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A bizarrely quiet day on the Bakmut front and nothing new out of Kreminna or Vuhledar other than the usual Russia sending useless wave attacks that got repelled

Edit:
Not much but been a while since Russian helicopters were shot down
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1631536286522806272

[Woody]

Magyar has left Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1631552647940435969