Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Yahidne has fallen, quicker than expected. As I predicted earlier, Dubovo-Vasylivka was going to fall this week, after Berhivka. Interestingly the Russian Army made some advances north of Avdiivka. Their attacks here have usually been.. well, almost Vuhledar-like results. I don't think there is a danger to Avdiivka itself, yet.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1629521020309630976

[Woody]

Wagner in Yahidne:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1629523685118734339?cxt=HHwWhsCzyY7KnZ0tAAA...

[Woody]

Bakhmut: (Still a little puzzled why AFU isn't withdrawing?)

https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1629537764109869056

[2952-0-0]

https://thehill.com/newsletters/1230-report/3866563-the-hills-1230-report-inside-bidens-surprise-trip-to-ukraine/

This article has a link to a picture of Biden's trip where if you look at the bottom of the stairs you can see a Zelensky double.


Another version of this picture where the double is more visible

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629461267684507648?t=KexFdU9BhDecf-BpTLW...

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629461267684507648?t=KexFdU9BhDecf-BpTLW...

Ah... thanks for sharing.  The two do look very much alike and are dressed the same.

[jaichind]

Trump said that the Nord Stream 2 sabotage was for sure not Russia and most likely USA.  He also identified Ukraine as a possible suspect but I think there is an issue of capability. 
https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1629267593453506560

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/researchers-say-russia-is-selling-oil-far-above-the-price-cap#xj4y7vzkg

"Russia Sold Oil Far Above Price Cap, Researchers Say"

Russia’s crude fetched an average of about $74 a barrel in the four weeks that followed the cap, according to calculations by experts including from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University and University of California. That’s about a quarter above the threshold — $60 a barrel — that the Group of Seven set from Dec. 5.

This is a surprise.  Last I checked Urals Crude is around $56.  I think what is going on is oil that is sold explicitly as Russian oil most likely is trading at $56 but where Russia can use its shadow fleet to disguise the source of its oil they can sell it for a higher price and in some cases much higher.

[Omega21]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/researchers-say-russia-is-selling-oil-far-above-the-price-cap#xj4y7vzkg

"Russia Sold Oil Far Above Price Cap, Researchers Say"

Russia’s crude fetched an average of about $74 a barrel in the four weeks that followed the cap, according to calculations by experts including from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University and University of California. That’s about a quarter above the threshold — $60 a barrel — that the Group of Seven set from Dec. 5.

This is a surprise.  Last I checked Urals Crude is around $56.  I think what is going on is oil that is sold explicitly as Russian oil most likely is trading at $56 but where Russia can use its shadow fleet to disguise the source of its oil they can sell it for a higher price and in some cases much higher.

Don't remember where I found the explanation, but basically what it said is:

Russia IS selling the oil itself under the "cap" price, but then they add on additional "service" costs such as transportation, "insurance" etc. and thereby achieve an effective price far higher than the cap itself.

[jaichind]

[Woody]

JUST NOW: Ivanivske is being stormed by Wagner assault groups. If it falls the rest of the AFU garrison in Bakhmut will effectively be under encirclement.

I take it the southern grouping was waiting for Yahidne and Berkhivka to fall, only to assault from the south the same day before any withdrawal could commence or the AFU could regroup.

I think this attack will be endless and they will throw everything they have at it, as the opportunity to really weaken Ukrainians is not something Wagner/Prigozhin is going to throw away.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629570346947956736
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1629573113150152706
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1629571137452535809

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1629564322132242433?cxt=HHwWgsC99b-HsJ0tA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1629548086547578888?cxt=HHwWkICwsbvWqJ0tA...

[Woody]

Incredibly asinine and insane that the Ukrainians are still in Bakhmut instead of leaving the city weeks ago.

Not even the Russians did anything close to this. Now they might really infact lose an entire grouping of brigades like they did in Mariupol. Not even I expected this to happen. I thought if the Russians ever got this close they would have done what they did in Lysychansk and left when the supply roads were still safe passage.

[jaichind]

Most likely Putin noticed but PRC did something recently which could potentially turn his logic against his likely successors.

http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2023-02/17/content_5741977.htm

The PRC announces that a bunch of names of places in the Russian Far East (places that Ching China lost to Tsarist Russia in 1858-1860) the official names will revert back to Chinese names.



The clearest example would be Vladivostok which the Chinese called 海參崴 but was changed under PRC to 符拉迪沃斯托克 which is merely phonetically Vladivostok in Chinese.  This could be the first of many steps to an eventual PRC or a post-PRC Chinese claim to regain what was lost in 1858-1860.  

As a Chinese revanchist, I would for sure support this but everything has to be done in sequence.  We should focus on PRC-ROC reunification and then reintegrate Outer Mongolia and then we can talk about Russian Far East.  But this is good.  On ROC it was and is 海參崴 the whole time and not this stupid 符拉迪沃斯托克 mumbo jumbo.

And while we are at it my main beef with PRC on city names is still Ürümqi which the PRC calls 烏魯木齊 as opposed to the Ching and ROC name of 迪化 and Hohhot which the PRC calls 呼和浩特 as opposed to the Ching and ROC name of 綏遠.  PRC changed those names back in the 1950s during a woke minority coddling phase.  It's time to fix this in my view.

[TheReckoning]

Most likely Putin noticed but PRC did something recently which could potentially turn his logic against his likely successors.

http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2023-02/17/content_5741977.htm

The PRC announces that a bunch of names of places in the Russian Far East (places that Ching China lost to Tsarist Russia in 1858-1860) the official names will revert back to Chinese names.



The clearest example would be Vladivostok which the Chinese called 海參崴 but was changed under PRC to 符拉迪沃斯托克 which is merely phonetically Vladivostok in Chinese.  This could be the first of many steps to an eventual PRC or a post-PRC Chinese claim to regain what was lost in 1858-1860.  

As a Chinese revanchist, I would for sure support this but everything has to be done in sequence.  We should focus on PRC-ROC reunification and then reintegrate Outer Mongolia and then we can talk about Russian Far East.  But this is good.  On ROC it was and is 海參崴 the whole time and not this stupid 符拉迪沃斯托克 mumbo jumbo.

And while we are at it my main beef with PRC on city names is still Ürümqi which the PRC calls 烏魯木齊 as opposed to the Ching and ROC name of 迪化 and Hohhot which the PRC calls 呼和浩特 as opposed to the Ching and ROC name of 綏遠.  PRC changed those names back in the 1950s during a woke minority coddling phase.  It's time to fix this in my view.

Would you prefer unification under KMT or unification under CCP?

[Red Velvet]

https://www.barrons.com/news/no-g20-joint-statement-after-china-objections-on-ukraine-war-73ed9b37

"No G20 Joint Statement After China Objections On Ukraine War"

Just to be clear, it was both PRC and India together that blocked a joint statement.

Westerners count so much on India-China tensions that they forget that India has really strong historical ties to Russia, more so than China. Which is why this India-China alliance regarding Russia doesn’t come off as a surprise at all.

[jaichind]

Would you prefer unification under KMT or unification under CCP?

The party I really support is the KMT of the 1930s-1960s.  The KMT today is no longer that KMT anymore.  CCP, if anything, is closer to the KMT of the 1930s-1950s than the KMT today.  So between the two, I would still say CCP despite my historical attachment to KMT.  My answer back in the 1990s would still be KMT but a lot has changed since the 1990s.  My ideal scenario of course would be some sort of monarchial restoration.  1949 was clearly a huge mistake but 1911 was also a mistake in my view.  I prefer to roll all of that back.  In the real world, I guess CCP, warts and all, would come closest to getting my support to lead a reunited China. 

[lfromnj]

Incredibly asinine and insane that the Ukrainians are still in Bakhmut instead of leaving the city weeks ago.

Not even the Russians did anything close to this. Now they might really infact lose an entire grouping of brigades like they did in Mariupol. Not even I expected this to happen. I thought if the Russians ever got this close they would have done what they did in Lysychansk and left when the supply roads were still safe passage.

Didn't the Russians do the same at Lyman or Izium?

[Woody]

Incredibly asinine and insane that the Ukrainians are still in Bakhmut instead of leaving the city weeks ago.

Not even the Russians did anything close to this. Now they might really infact lose an entire grouping of brigades like they did in Mariupol. Not even I expected this to happen. I thought if the Russians ever got this close they would have done what they did in Lysychansk and left when the supply roads were still safe passage.

Didn't the Russians do the same at Lyman or Izium?

No, Russians sh*t their pants after Balakliia and left, Lyman not so much. But we are talking about company sizes here (Some Rosgvardia too, IIRC?), not entire divisions and brigades.

[Woody]

MAJOR NEWS: Bakhmut is now encircled.

At the very least, every route in and out of the city is now under Wagner fire-control.

If a breakthrough is even possible, a lot of it has to be done on foot on the few dirt roads/fields. So a good amount of heavy equipment supplied to Bakhmut proper has to be abandoned or destroyed on the way out.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1629607446997090312

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1629606086473838594?cxt=HHwWhMCzwcCGw50tA...
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1629605279452020737?cxt=HHwWgoC23cPXwp...
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1629605787453497347

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/researchers-say-russia-is-selling-oil-far-above-the-price-cap#xj4y7vzkg

"Russia Sold Oil Far Above Price Cap, Researchers Say"

Russia’s crude fetched an average of about $74 a barrel in the four weeks that followed the cap, according to calculations by experts including from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University and University of California. That’s about a quarter above the threshold — $60 a barrel — that the Group of Seven set from Dec. 5.

This is a surprise.  Last I checked Urals Crude is around $56.  I think what is going on is oil that is sold explicitly as Russian oil most likely is trading at $56 but where Russia can use its shadow fleet to disguise the source of its oil they can sell it for a higher price and in some cases much higher.

Don't remember where I found the explanation, but basically what it said is:

Russia IS selling the oil itself under the "cap" price, but then they add on additional "service" costs such as transportation, "insurance" etc. and thereby achieve an effective price far higher than the cap itself.

It could be that.  But I am sure it is also

Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers just a few miles off the coast of Greece, one of a series of workarounds that traders have used to overcome European Union sanctions against Moscow.

Which is basically disguising the source of the oil where it is "purified" as non-Russian oil to be sold a the non-Russian oil market price.

[2952-0-0]

Most likely Putin noticed but PRC did something recently which could potentially turn his logic against his likely successors.

This is just restating longtime official policy, not anything new. The PRC has officially called the placenames in the Russian Far East by their Russian names, with the traditional Chinese names acknowledged by parentheses.

In any case, in a hypothetical situation where the PRC has made enemies of all the western-aligned powers and even Russia, it wouldn't have any better outcome than in the last times the ruler of China engaged in such nonsense, under Cixi with the Boxer Rebellion and then under Mao with the Cultural Revolution. So, there's no point to engage in 意淫 (mental self-pleasuring). The whole reason why we're here is because of Putin's 意淫.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine brought a disabled Russian tank in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin.  It seems counterprotesters start to put flowers on the tank.

Yeah, and one of the counterprotestors attempted to replace the Ukrainian flag on that tank with the Russian one, although he was apparently stopped by the police.


Ah, and there was also this dude... "Putin means peace" says the sign.




While yesterday was the day of the pro-Ukrainian rallies in Berlin, this followed up today by the nutjob rallies.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well the bad news is Bakmut will probably about to fall in the next few days give or take. Good news is Russia is gaining a strategically insignificant town and the nonstop spamming about the battle goes away

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1629578594098790401
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1629620412165373954