Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Yesterday appears to have been a good day for drones in Ukraine...

No idea yet which (if any) combatant forces benefited the most, but still worth mentioning...

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1623319899127877634?s=20&t=P-gr8i4n...

[NOVA Green]

Phillips OBrien appears to be somewhat convinced that Western Fighter Jets are coming soon to Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1623399940964720642?s=20&t=P-gr8i...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Challengers might be in Ukraine as early as next month...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1623385038212501505?s=20&t=P-gr8i...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Wagner troops are increasingly out of the mix?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1623570467045924864?s=20&t=P-gr8i4npiAkWs...

[jaichind]

https://inews.co.uk/news/we-havent-got-any-fking-jets-give-doubts-over-how-rishi-sunak-help-ukraine-air-power-2137740

"‘We haven’t got any f***ing jets to give’: Doubts over how Rishi Sunak could help Ukraine with air power"

I think if Ukraine wants fighters they are better off trying to get them for USA

[Logical]

It's been a while since the last Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Have they finally run short of missiles or is there another change in strategy?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia launched a heavy counterattack out of Kreminna yesterday and it didn’t go well
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1623623452832718848
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1623616630100992001

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1623695150248517633
The jets are coming 🎉

[Torie]

Given what was once beyond the pale, is no longer, it seems as if the West takes seriously the prospect that Putin will launch is big push this spring.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Given what was once beyond the pale, is no longer, it seems as if the West takes seriously the prospect that Putin will launch is big push this spring.

Which is actually amazing considering launching an offensive in early spring aka Ukrainian mud season is a disastrous idea from not only a historical standpoint but something his army already had problems with last year

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/09/ukraine-accused-weaponising-elon-musks-starlink-satellites/

"SpaceX accuses Ukraine of ‘weaponising’ Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623806048309071872
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623806050389426183
Good day at the office for the Ukraine military

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623806048309071872
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623806050389426183
Good day at the office for the Ukraine military

Considering the spanking that Russian forces are taking around Vuhledar this is definitely a good couple days for Ukraine.

Selection from Forbes, which I believe has four free monthly articles outside of the paywall.

The latest Russian attack on Vuhledar—a town with a pre-war population of just 14,000 that lies a mile north of Russian-held Pavlivka, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk—kicked off on Monday.

Seemingly a couple of battalions of Russian mechanized troops, together riding in a few dozen T-80 tanks and BMP-1 and BMP-2 fighting vehicles, advanced north.

The Ukrainian army’s elite 72nd Mechanized Brigade is entrenched around Vuhledar. It has laid minefields along the main approaches from Pavlivka. Its drones surveil the front. Its artillery is dialed in.

The Russians know this. And the assault force took rudimentary precautions. Tank crews injected fuel into their exhausts to produce smokescreens. At least one T-80 carried a mine-plow.

But leadership and intelligence failures—and Ukraine’s superior artillery fire-control—neutralized these measures. The Russian formation rolled into dense minefields. Destroyed tanks and BMPs blocked the advance. Vehicles attempting to skirt the ruined hulks themselves ran into mines.

Panicky vehicle commanders crowded so tightly behind the smoke-generating tanks that Ukrainian artillery, cued by drones, could score hits by firing at the head of the smoke. The Russians’ daylong attack ended in heavy losses and retreat. The survivors left behind around 30 wrecked tanks and BMPs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/08/smashed-by-ukrainian-mines-and-artillery-russias-winter-offensive-just-ground-to-a-halt-outside-vuhledar/?sh=15926d985558

[CanadianDemocrat]

Given what was once beyond the pale, is no longer, it seems as if the West takes seriously the prospect that Putin will launch is big push this spring.

Which is actually amazing considering launching an offensive in early spring aka Ukrainian mud season is a disastrous idea from not only a historical standpoint but something his army already had problems with last year

The media always talks about how bad launching an offensive in the winter is in Ukraine, but the spring and fall mud season is just as bad.

[jaichind]

It's been a while since the last Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Have they finally run short of missiles or is there another change in strategy?

Looks like another wave of missile attacks today.

My guess on the Russian strategy is that they are waging this war as an indefinite war.  So they are going not to focus on short-term results.  The best ROI on missile attacks would be to attack infrastructure, wait for it to get mostly repaired, and then attack again.  This way Russia learns more about Ukraine's ability to repair as well as maximize the number of resources destroyed per attack. This, of course, could reflect Russia running lower on missiles or more likely both which is about my maximize ROI argument of resources economization coupled with damage maximization per attack.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1623978447327358977
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1623979390177628160
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1623979813932351488?cxt=HHwWgIC-vavCxIktA...

[Woody]

Missile & Shahed drone attacks:

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1623969236702969858?cxt=HHwWhIC-_dTav4ktAAAA
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1623972579827494912
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1623964171258761217?cxt=HHwWgsC4veizvYktAAAA
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1623965207465807874
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1623954635709984773?cxt=HHwWisC9jeOIuYktAAAA

[Woody]

Given what was once beyond the pale, is no longer, it seems as if the West takes seriously the prospect that Putin will launch is big push this spring.

Which is actually amazing considering launching an offensive in early spring aka Ukrainian mud season is a disastrous idea from not only a historical standpoint but something his army already had problems with last year

Ukraine is a big place. In some places weather doesn't really say much. Places like Kreminna/Lyman is composed of pine forest, some sand, etc - you don't see much mud there on the ground. Launching assaults there whatever time of year has little say.

Also mud wasn't what stopped the trust towards Kyiv last year lol.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/russia-plans-to-cut-march-oil-output-by-500-000-b-d-novak-says

"Russia to Cut Oil Output in Retaliation for West’s Sanctions"

Oil prices rise $2 on the news.  This seems like a double edge sword for Russia.  Less output means less revenue even if per unit revenue goes up.  The purpose of the oil cap is to limit Russia's revenue (which is the wrong way to go about it in my view as I think the collective West should focus on Russia's ability to import vs export revenue) but Russia's action might lead to even less revenue.  I guess they know what they are doing and did the math.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-two-russian-missiles-crossed-into-romania-moldova-2023-02-10/

"Ukraine says two Russian missiles crossed into Romania and Moldova"

[jaichind]

https://www.durangoherald.com/articles/moldovas-prime-minister-resigns-government-collapses-amid-series-of-crises-in-nation-that-borders/

"Moldova's prime minister resigns; government collapses amid series of crises in nation that borders Ukraine"

Moldova government collapses.  Ukraine will say Russia is behind it.  They might be right.

[dead0man]

It's been a while since the last Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Have they finally run short of missiles or is there another change in strategy?

Looks like another wave of missile attacks today.

My guess on the Russian strategy is that they are waging this war as an indefinite war.  So they are going not to focus on short-term results.  The best ROI on missile attacks would be to attack infrastructure, wait for it to get mostly repaired, and then attack again.  This way Russia learns more about Ukraine's ability to repair as well as maximize the number of resources destroyed per attack. This, of course, could reflect Russia running lower on missiles or more likely both which is about my maximize ROI argument of resources economization coupled with damage maximization per attack.

if you're right, why did/do they waste so many missiles on apartment buildings?  Is it because Russians are bad at doing military stuff or is it because Russians are just bad people.

[dead0man]

Also mud wasn't what stopped the trust towards Kyiv last year lol.

indeed, it was Russian incompetence and Ukrainian stubbornness that did that trick.  I'm sure your handlers use slightly different words though.

[Torie]

China seems to want to take charge of the EU, including its travel itineraries.

https://www.politico.eu/article/drop-idea-complete-victory-ukraine-china-eu-volodymyr-zelenskyy-fu-cong-xi-jinping-russia/

[jaichind]

It's been a while since the last Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Have they finally run short of missiles or is there another change in strategy?

Looks like another wave of missile attacks today.

My guess on the Russian strategy is that they are waging this war as an indefinite war.  So they are going not to focus on short-term results.  The best ROI on missile attacks would be to attack infrastructure, wait for it to get mostly repaired, and then attack again.  This way Russia learns more about Ukraine's ability to repair as well as maximize the number of resources destroyed per attack. This, of course, could reflect Russia running lower on missiles or more likely both which is about my maximize ROI argument of resources economization coupled with damage maximization per attack.

if you're right, why did/do they waste so many missiles on apartment buildings?  Is it because Russians are bad at doing military stuff or is it because Russians are just bad people.

I think if and when that were to place I would say the short answer would be an issue of competence.  My comment was about the likely Russian strategy and not an endorsement of their ability to carry it out.