Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

The Challenger II and M1A2 tanks are the only ones to be given by the West that aren't in the Leopard or T-72 families. Hopefully that fact enables the Ukrainians to better maintain and keep these tanks running, due to identical or similar parts among the two families of tanks.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1623040983410610209?s=20&t=sT35DJ...

[Hindsight was 2020]

People here really need to learn to use the ignore function (ideally with the enhancements you can turn on in the "Atlas - Forum Options" menu).

Probably could of saved the thread half a page for this listening to your advise lol

[Virginiá]

The thing about casualties in Bakhmut is that while Ukrainians are losing their best and brightest, Russians are losing murderers, rapists and thieves ; people everyone are happy to be rid of. So even if you assume a highly favorable 1:10 casualty ratio, Ukraine still loses in human capital terms.

But the reason Russia is sending murderers, rapists and thieves is they already lost their best soldiers in the opening stages of the war. It’s not a case of Russia having this well trained army in reserve waiting to take over after Wagner is all gone

This and Wagner has apparently been displaced as the primary force in Bakhmut. Not that they aren't active there and in the region, but the Russian military has been asserting control lately and Prigozhin is losing a bit of clout after having failed to deliver the city despite a lot of resources being poured into the effort. Wagner is the one creating penal units, more or less. Russian mobiks are the guys being pulled from the streets and are just random people - at least the ones who couldn't bribe their way out of conscription.

So I don't think it's entirely accurate to say that Russia is just losing convicts. In fact, the huge surge in Russian casualties coincided with the arrival of mobiks to the front, and these guys are random people pulled from society. They've lost a lot of convicts for sure, but that is subsiding and perhaps not as significant as one might think.

[Torie]

The thing about casualties in Bakhmut is that while Ukrainians are losing their best and brightest, Russians are losing murderers, rapists and thieves ; people everyone are happy to be rid of. So even if you assume a highly favorable 1:10 casualty ratio, Ukraine still loses in human capital terms.

But the reason Russia is sending murderers, rapists and thieves is they already lost their best soldiers in the opening stages of the war. It’s not a case of Russia having this well trained army in reserve waiting to take over after Wagner is all gone

This and Wagner has apparently been displaced as the primary force in Bakhmut. Not that they aren't active there and in the region, but the Russian military has been asserting control lately and Prigozhin is losing a bit of clout after having failed to deliver the city despite a lot of resources being poured into the effort. Wagner is the one creating penal units, more or less. Russian mobiks are the guys being pulled from the streets and are just random people - at least the ones who couldn't bribe their way out of conscription.

So I don't think it's entirely accurate to say that Russia is just losing convicts. In fact, the huge surge in Russian casualties coincided with the arrival of mobiks to the front, and these guys are random people pulled from society. They've lost a lot of convicts for sure, but that is subsiding and perhaps not as significant as one might think.

I wonder if the word is getting out at all as to what the morality rate is with these mobiks who are not felons in prison. Are all the borders closed now?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1623060472244346881
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1623062517705502731
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1622842464364011524
This is some of stuff I mean the fact is Russia can’t sustain a loss rate like this (with the actual offense not even happening yet) and not just set themselves up for a devastating counterattack once Ukraine has the tanks ready to go

[KaiserDave]

Stop arguing with the local Reichs-Rundfunk-Gesellschaft broadcaster.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if the word is getting out at all as to what the morality rate is with these mobiks who are not felons in prison. Are all the borders closed now?

Yeah, that was absolutely a factor the last couple months. Wagner started facing manpower issues in part because they already scraped the barrel clean with regards to prisons, and the people left in there who might have been open to fighting were not so much in favor of it after hearing about what their likely fate would be. At least that much has been reported. A lot of those guys would never have been prospective conscripts anyway, because not everyone in prison is facing a long sentence, and/or are smart enough to deduce what is going on just by the mere fact that they are offering pardons for 6 months of service. I mean how bad does the war have to be going before a government decides to allow that? Doesn't take a genius to put that together.

[Torie]

I wonder if the word is getting out at all as to what the morality rate is with these mobiks who are not felons in prison. Are all the borders closed now?

Yeah, that was absolutely a factor the last couple months. Wagner started facing manpower issues in part because they already scraped the barrel clean with regards to prisons, and the people left in there who might have been open to fighting were not so much in favor of it after hearing about what their likely fate would be. At least that much has been reported. A lot of those guys would never have been prospective conscripts anyway, because not everyone in prison is facing a long sentence, and/or are smart enough to deduce what is going on just by the mere fact that they are offering pardons for 6 months of service. I mean how bad does the war have to be going before a government decides to allow that? Doesn't take a genius to put that together.

I was wondering more about guys on the street fleeing to escape the draft as the sanguinary news filters back about the body counts. Felons in prison just say no, non felons who are not part of the elite (the elites who so elected are long gone) subject to the draft on the street working a day job flee (if they still can).

Addendum: Here is a story about the ins and outs of Russia rounding up the bodies and civilian coping with it all that's pretty good:

https://www.politico.eu/article/second-mobilization-russia-men-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war/

[CanadianDemocrat]

The thing about casualties in Bakhmut is that while Ukrainians are losing their best and brightest, Russians are losing murderers, rapists and thieves ; people everyone are happy to be rid of. So even if you assume a highly favorable 1:10 casualty ratio, Ukraine still loses in human capital terms.

But the reason Russia is sending murderers, rapists and thieves is they already lost their best soldiers in the opening stages of the war. It’s not a case of Russia having this well trained army in reserve waiting to take over after Wagner is all gone

The Russian paratroopers, special forces and other elite units were wiped out in the failed Kiev offensive. A Wagner penal soldier used as as cannon fodder, is useless compared to a paratrooper or special forces. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way, hands down the best troops under Russia's wing is the DPR and LPR militia guys, there is no question about it. They know their artillery and mortars incredibly well, know the lay of the land, disciplined, had experience, know well about trench working and warfare, etc.. Unfortunately for Russia they expended them like candy during the first phase of the invasion.. because.. well it's Russia.

So in a way you're right that Russia foolishly wasted some of it's good fighting force, same with the VDV.

Interesting.
That would not surprise me. The LPR and DPR people were fighting the Ukrainians since 2014.

[Badger]

I have taken to following the Sea Lion Press thread on the invasion rather than reading ... SirWoodbury and Jaichind.

I am not reporting this, and disagree myself with both posters on much about Ukraine, but that kind of name calling is uncalled for and not what this site is about, and you should cease and desist. Thank you.

Remove the word subliterate, and frankly not one other word was out of place or undeserved, or frankly even a personal attack

[Woody]

Wagner advanced considerably and reached the Slovyansk-Bakhmut highway from Blahodatne. To the north of Bakhmut. The route they took toward the roads are lowlands between two hills, so they might be exposed by possible AFU counter-attack until they have secured the high ground (...they already might have?).
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1623270201977348099?cxt=HHwWhoCxtb7pgYctA...
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1623237354826727427
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1623195809536700417

[Woody]

I think if there is one last saving grace for Ukraine in Bakhmut is a possible counter-attack towards Klischiivka. Supposedly the Wagner group has had a little trouble maintaining the water canals to it's west, and Russian mil. channels are really afraid of a attack here because of how vulnerable these positions are south of the tree lines & Ivanivske.

All the signs point out that AFU is most likely going to attack these lines soon, since they continue to rotate units in Bakhmut itself, and keep sending new guys there daily. But if that fails, it's probably time to do a Lysychansk again.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Zelensky made a surprise visit to the UK and it sounds like the UK are going to be the first to supply Ukraine with jets
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1623316366039064578
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623320977101795329

[rc18]

Apart from the Tranche 1 Eurofighters, there's not a lot to give. And this seems a major risk given there's still plenty of Russian SAM about. There's not a huge range of long-range weaponry to keep them out of harms way, except expensive Meteor air-to-air and Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

There were some rumours of France thinking about donating Mirages. Quite old now, but IIRC they are capable of launching SCALP, the French version of the Storm Shadow. Ukraine doesn't really need an expensive plane right now, just a compatible launch platform.  

[Torrain]

Sunak has made positive noises this afternoon about sending planes - but has been pretty light on detail, or firm commitment:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1623341299012182017
Politically, it’s worth noting that Labour essentially spent PMQs today being supportive of Government policy, while trying to outflank Sunak, placing themselves as more hawkish on Russia than him.

Their whole play at the moment is to portray the PM as weak and indecisive - so there’s a chance he gets bullied into sending some token aircraft, to avoid pressure from both Labour and Boris Johnson, who’s retirement has been characterised by ever-escalating support for arms transfer (not the measured policy currently pursued by the UK, US etc, but a hyperbolic tabloid version, that doesn’t seem politically plausible outside of the pages of a Daily Mail column).

[jaichind]

https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-us-blew-up-the-nord-stream-pipeline-report-20230208/

"The US blew up the Nord Stream pipeline - report"

It seems former NYT reporter Seymour Hersh came out with a report saying that the USA was behind Nord Stream II sabotage.    USA government denying it of course.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64523029

"Ukraine war: Borrowed time for Bakhmut as Russians close in"

BBC's tone for Ukraine in Bakhmut seems pessimistic

[Woody]

6 months of fighting might come to an end soon

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623391695533674496?cxt=HHwWgMDU-auJuYctAAAA

[jaichind]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/

"Ukraine Braces for Grisly Russian Offensive in the East"

It seems a lot of people are expecting a large Russian offensive soon.  I could very well be wrong but I disagree.  I think Russia will take it slow to clear out Donbas which will take several months and then launch its large offensive.

[Associate Justice PiT]

6 months of fighting might come to an end soon

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623391695533674496?cxt=HHwWgMDU-auJuYctAAAA

      Supposing they order an evacuation at all and don't maroon their soldiers there. Ukraine has proven very determined to hold Bakhmut, even as it has become apparent that they won't be able to continue holding it.

[Woody]

6 months of fighting might come to an end soon

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623391695533674496?cxt=HHwWgMDU-auJuYctAAAA

Supposing they order an evacuation at all and don't maroon their soldiers there. Ukraine has proven very determined to hold Bakhmut, even as it has become apparent that they won't be able to continue holding it.

I think signs point out that they're going for one last ditch counter-attack to the south of the city to see if it they can salvage it. But I am pretty sure the guys at the top know more than us armchairs and have prepared for withdrawal if it comes to that. Repeating Mariupol is not on the cards.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1623087661362601989?s=20&t=-xqo7FQ...

[Storr]

An often overlooked, yet very important, part of this war is artillery:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623426861068845056?s=20&t=-xqo7FQLOOGZ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1623072048997171204?s=20&t=-xqo7FQL...