Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

Viktor Orban once again demonstrates where his true sympathies lie in this war -and they are not with Ukraine, considering his willingness to use them as a bargaining chip with the European Union:

Hungary blocks EU Ukraine aid, deepening rift with Brussels

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1600211220845318144

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There was a weeks-long absence of footage involving Iranian drones, but if deliveries stopped, Russia must have held onto a reserve for some time afterwards:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1600372268395274240

[Woody]

Bakhmut front - Wagnerovites have entered Yakovlivka to Soledar's, after months of being a frontline town. (Might have fallen)

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1600456974511980544?cxt=HHwWgICqwfDI-7UsA...
https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/status/1600466564498980864
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1600459386442289154

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1600364280238383104

[Storr]

Meanwhile in Russia:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1600532714087645184?s=20&t=2fQe9u5...

[NOVA Green]

Russia attempts to remake the Ukrainian agricultural system in its own image...

Much longer article but good read on how Russian looting of Ukrainian assets goes well beyond Russian soldiers stealing washing machines, jewelry, and electronics from Ukrainian civilians.

Soon after Russian tanks rolled into eastern Ukraine, three of that country’s biggest farming operators lost tracts of land equivalent to more than twice the area of New York City.

It wasn’t taken by the military. In all three cases, leaders of the Ukrainian farming operations say, the land ended up in the hands of the family company of a former Russian agriculture minister, Alexander Tkachev.

The Ukrainian firms say that his company, Agrocomplex, seized the rights to some 400,000 acres, becoming one of largest farm operators in Ukraine. Ukraine’s military and civilian intelligence agencies and its public prosecutors’ office are investigating the alleged expropriation, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

“Russia is taking over the economy in occupied territories and using that control to help control the whole area,” said Dmitry Skorniakov, chief executive of Ukrainian agricultural company HarvEast Holding.

In the end, the workers told Mr. Skorniakov, HarvEast’s land was split into three tranches, with 100,000 owned or rented acres in Donetsk province handed over to Agrocomplex.

A big chunk of the land at issue now is being farmed by Agrocomplex, according to Ukrainian intelligence and Ukrainian farm owners. The company has been involved in ensuring Russia’s “control over agricultural production,” Ukrainian military intelligence said in a document reviewed by the Journal.

While he was in government and head of Agrocomplex, Mr. Tkachev’s family company became a field-to-shelf food giant producing and processing grain, livestock and dairy products for sale in Russia and parts of Europe where it is sanctioned. It tripled its land holdings over the period. Agrocomplex now controls more than two million acres of farmland in Russia, said BEFL, a Russian corporate advisory. That is in addition to the land it is alleged to have stolen in Ukraine.

Agrocomplex has followed in the wake of Russian soldiers before. After Russia annexed Crimea, an Agrocomplex affiliate bought a Crimean agricultural enterprise once owned by a Ukrainian business rival. Mr. Putin has praised Agrocomplex’s work in Crimea, singling out one of its investments at a forum in St. Petersburg last year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oligarch-seizes-400-000-acres-of-ukrainian-farmland-owners-say-11670338956?mod=hp_lead_pos10

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1600874687520710658

[DaleCooper]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

It’s less likely that public support is shifting then it is with Musk in charge that Russian bots and trolls feel emboldened to come out

I don't think they're emboldened, I think more spam and bots are able to tweet now that Musk has trashed the company.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-missile-strike-energy-blackout-winter-christmas-1764885

Newsweek: "Ukraine's National Grid Could Collapse by Christmas"

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm scared (not in the faux Woodbury way) that public opinion is turning against Ukraine. They used to get consistent support and now their twitter posts are full of pro-Russia commentors.

It’s less likely that public support is shifting then it is with Musk in charge that Russian bots and trolls feel emboldened to come out

I don't think they're emboldened, I think more spam and bots are able to tweet now that Musk has trashed the company.

That’s probably a better way of putting it. The Twitter comment section backlash to Zelensky winning the Times POTY award were very bot heavy and reeks of “Musk not banning us so let’s get after it comrades”

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1601000784556347392

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1601000784556347392

Another map of the Kreminna area:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1600926872644485120?s=20&t=Avl38l4flD4G7G...

[NOVA Green]

Will Russia's invasion and occupation of swathes of Ukraine, weaken the power of Ukrainian oligarchs?

Excerpts from a much longer read from the WaPo today.

Over two days in October, eight Russian cruise missiles screamed out of the sky and obliterated tens of millions of dollars’ worth of critical machinery at this city’s hulking coal-fired power plant.

The attacks were designed to leave Ukraine cold and dark this winter. But they also deepened a financial crisis for the plant’s owner, Rinat Akhmetov, the country’s richest man.

Akhmetov’s wealth has dived from $7.6 billion to $4.3 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, according to Forbes. In 2012, before Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatists in Ukraine’s east, locations where Akhmetov also had numerous assets, the magazine estimated his wealth at $16 billion.

The losses are largely from Russia’s destruction and confiscation of his vast networks of power and steel plants, coal mines and agricultural operations. Most notable were his two huge steel plants in the port city of Mariupol, including Azovstal, where Ukrainian fighters staged a defiant last stand against Russian forces earlier this year. Akhmetov is suing Russia for up to $20 billion in the European Court of Human Rights.

In interviews with more than two dozen current and former Ukrainian and U.S. officials, analysts and others, nearly all agreed that the dominant power of oligarchs in Ukrainian life has been diminished. They cited vast losses from the war, growing government pressure and a newly energized population no longer willing to tolerate the politics of the past. They said that could give Ukraine the opportunity to rebuild a postwar society that is more democratic, less corrupt and more economically diversified.

Pressure on oligarchs had already been building before Russia’s invasion, with a “de-oligarchization” law promoted by Zelensky that took effect this year. The law places limits on the political activity of super-rich individuals who meet certain criteria, including those who have major holdings in television and other media to press their financial interests and political agenda. The Zelensky government is also crafting antitrust measures to crack down on monopolies controlled by oligarchs in areas from coal mining to electricity to railroads.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/08/ukraine-oligarchs-power-war/

[NOVA Green]

Typical Russian disinformation campaigns to manipulate European public opinion on various issues, is now targeting immigration into Germany...

Russian troll farms are running quite busy these dayz...

Very long article, with much more meat to it than the brief snippets quoted below.

he news clip showed a towering blaze in a residential neighborhood in Germany, followed by a weeping homeowner giving an interview from the rubble of her burned-down house. A chyron at the bottom of the screen explained that Ukrainian refugees had set the fire, accidentally ravaging the home of their German hosts.

The video, which bore the logo of the German tabloid Bild, spread from a small YouTube account through the messaging app Telegram to Russian state media, until it could be found on nearly every major social platform, a forensic analysis later showed.

But it was a fake, with footage from unrelated events stitched together to form a bogus news report that cast Ukrainian refugees as feckless instigators wreaking havoc on the generous Germans who had taken them in.

As Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian cities, pro-Kremlin propagandists have homed in on a new target: turning Europeans against the 7.8 million Ukrainian refugees who make up the continent’s largest displacement since World War II. In doing so, Russia’s disinformation merchants are needling at deep-seated European fault lines over immigration, echoing how Russia-linked operatives famously exploited major U.S. social media platforms to sow division around topics such as race ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Experts say the propaganda campaign, which Facebook parent company Meta has called “the largest and most complex Russian-origin operation that we’ve disrupted since the beginning of the war in Ukraine,” aims to stoke fear and divisions among Ukraine’s critical European allies as they brace for a new influx of refugees this winter. And while Europeans remain overwhelmingly supportive of fleeing Ukrainians, there are fears that Russian efforts to weaponize the issue may be finding their mark.

While Europeans are still overwhelmingly in favor of welcoming refugees, support is slipping in key countries. A poll by the Bertelsmann Foundation found that the proportion of Germans who believe the country should take in refugees from Ukraine fell from 86 percent in March, near the beginning of the war, to 74 percent in September.

Russian disinformation narratives have also seeped into mainstream politics. In September, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s opposition Christian Democrats, accused Ukrainian refugees of “social tourism” — taking advantage of Germany’s welfare system while traveling back and forth to Ukraine, a narrative frequently touted by pro-Kremlin accounts. He later apologized.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/12/08/russian-disinfo-ukrainian-refugees-germany/

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe anybody has yet posted the "Drunk Putin" video.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1600847388242894848?s=20&t=zN1kiWFg...

[NOVA Green]

Another take on the "Drunk Putin" video...

Looks like Putin doesn't know the difference between Crimea and Donetsk?

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1600934213645017088?s=20&t=NkvgEsN...

[dead0man]

Putin likes to remind us why Trump is such a big fan.  They both just say whatever nonsense pops into their heads, irregardless of the truth that is obvious to everyone.

I don't know how the interviewer kept a straight face when Putin said "well, they started it".

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin intoxicated in public isn't a normal thing, though?

Which could tell us something, even if its unclear exactly what at this stage.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Don't believe anybody has yet posted the "Drunk Putin" video.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1600847388242894848?s=20&t=zN1kiWFg...

What looks like a second lapse of judgement:

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1601217162303066112

Getting a bit concerning, IMO. I haven't really bought into the "he's crazy/demented/suicidal" arguments so far, but it could be a little more serious than irredentism and online brain poisoning.

[Storr]

Remember that official Soviet total number soldiers killed in 9 years of the Soviet War in Afghanistan was 14,453:

https://twitter.com/Olya_Prosvirova/status/1601193695516102657?s=20&t=AxwZdA...

From the article (google translated): "We rely only on confirmed death reports, so the data collected does not reflect the actual level of casualties. We assume that our list may contain at least 40-60% fewer names of the dead than actually buried in Russia. We came to this conclusion after studying the monuments to the military, memorial plaques and the situation in cemeteries in more than 60 settlements in Russia.

Therefore, according to the most conservative estimate, the losses of the Russian army and the National Guard in Ukraine could be more than 20,000 people."

[Virginiá]

Might be time to revise these plans. Not much of a point in holding back munitions for a possible war with Russia when Russia is already at war and their military is being ground down day by day. If we're saving weapons for this hypothetical war, we might as well use them now. By the time Russia can rebuild its military, we'll already have replacements for the weapons sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1601314635755364353

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

Also:

Congressional aides have complained that U.S. aid packages to Ukraine are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality on the ground, with around $400 million going to Kyiv every couple of weeks—far less than what was being provided during the summer months, when the United States began providing the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Ukraine used to devastating effect against Russian lines.

“The administration doesn’t actually want to go faster in Ukraine,” the first congressional aide said. “That’s very clear to all of us.”

Worth reading the article if you like to follow military aid to Ukraine.

[Comrade Funk]

Might be time to revise these plans. Not much of a point in holding back munitions for a possible war with Russia when Russia is already at war and their military is being ground down day by day. If we're saving weapons for this hypothetical war, we might as well use them now. By the time Russia can rebuild its military, we'll already have replacements for the weapons sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1601314635755364353

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

Also:

Congressional aides have complained that U.S. aid packages to Ukraine are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality on the ground, with around $400 million going to Kyiv every couple of weeks—far less than what was being provided during the summer months, when the United States began providing the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Ukraine used to devastating effect against Russian lines.

“The administration doesn’t actually want to go faster in Ukraine,” the first congressional aide said. “That’s very clear to all of us.”

Worth reading the article if you like to follow military aid to Ukraine.

Something very Dr. Strangelove about this. "We must save our weapons for the next war, gentlemen."

[ProudModerate2]

Pope Francis cries for Ukraine war victims during address in Rome.

Pope Francis broke down in tears on Thursday while talking about the war in Ukraine during an annual prayer at Rome’s Spanish steps to mark the Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a national holiday in Italy.

The Pope’s voice cracked as he mentioned the suffering of the Ukrainian people and he trembled as he was forced to stop for around 30 seconds. (From CNN Live Updates.)

I found this to be very touching. The Pope, as well as most world leaders, are seeing the brutality of what Russia is doing to the Ukrainian people.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Might be time to revise these plans. Not much of a point in holding back munitions for a possible war with Russia when Russia is already at war and their military is being ground down day by day. If we're saving weapons for this hypothetical war, we might as well use them now. By the time Russia can rebuild its military, we'll already have replacements for the weapons sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1601314635755364353
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

Also:

Congressional aides have complained that U.S. aid packages to Ukraine are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality on the ground, with around $400 million going to Kyiv every couple of weeks—far less than what was being provided during the summer months, when the United States began providing the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Ukraine used to devastating effect against Russian lines.

“The administration doesn’t actually want to go faster in Ukraine,” the first congressional aide said. “That’s very clear to all of us.”

Worth reading the article if you like to follow military aid to Ukraine.

I'm skeptical that munitions shortage is the principal factor behind the slowing down in deliveries. As we saw with the Czech T-72 upgrades, more could be procured through USAI if drawdown was problematic.

The article mentioned that "Munitions shortage," was the pretext used when the administration was reluctant to address its true concerns about ATACMS (escalation is actually a plausible concern here, but it wasn't one they were happy to publicly worry about). It reminds me of the "We can't give that, because it'd need training," pretext used to dismiss many options the administration didn't want to consider for other reasons.

It was widely posited that Ukraine would need to launch successful offensives to prove the aid was worthwhile, but it's quite possible that the reverse was closer to the truth: that the Biden administration and others are nervous about Ukraine advancing too quickly (or at all). A Congressional aide suggests as much in the article.

Kherson was heavily telegraphed and most of the land was retaken because Russia accepted it was necessary; it wasn't a surprise. The success of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, by contrast, may have taken Russia, the US and even Ukraine by surprise, and perhaps it spooked Western backers a little bit.