Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

It is ironic that given how many Russo-Persian wars took place between the 1650s and 1820s now Iran emerge as a key ally for Russia.

Fascist Russia and Theocratic Fascist Iran agree on one thing: the western world order of democracy and human rights, not to mention US power, must be overturned.

Neither of those two regimes are even remotely close to fascism.

"Not even remotely close".

Imagine unironically believing this.

But it's true. Neither Russia nor Iran are fascist in any meaningful sense of the word. Pretending otherwise shows either (a) a lack of knowledge about fascism, (b) a lack of knowledge about these countries, or (c) both.

Even terms like 'theocracy' are thrown around way too casually. Iran is a hybrid regime with democratic elements at worst; a proper theocracy looks completely differently.

It would actually be preferable if you provided specific points as to why Russia is "not even remotely fascist" (like a rundown what the characteristics of historical fascism and contempary Putinism are, where they differ and where they overlap - and please keep in mind the issue at hand is whether Putin bears a "remote" likeness to fascism, so I would expect the differences to outweigh the parallels significantly) instead of accusing someone like me who had Hannah Arendt's The Origins of Totalitarianism as oral exam topic in political science of having no idea what he's talking about.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's no better telltale sign of a pseudointellectual than someone who insists on a hyperspecific definition of fascism that happens to exclude any current political movement or regime with obvious and glaring similarities to historical fascism.

[LabourJersey]

Well, the new Russian commander certainly is working hard to confirm the rumors about his bold (or ruthless) leadership style

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

Getting back to topic: how is Ukraine going to deal with this during the winter? That's clearly the Russian goal here--a country without heat and power in a lot of places will find it tough to put up a fight.

And how will the West help Ukraine when it comes to this kind of infrastructure?

[Person Man]

Well, the new Russian commander certainly is working hard to confirm the rumors about his bold (or ruthless) leadership style

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

Getting back to topic: how is Ukraine going to deal with this during the winter? That's clearly the Russian goal here--a country without heat and power in a lot of places will find it tough to put up a fight.

And how will the West help Ukraine when it comes to this kind of infrastructure?

Again, if this is what Russia is doing to them now, what will they be doing to Ukraine if they win?

[Silent Hunter]

The Red Army coped just fine in the worst winters of the 20th century. The soldiers will be able to fight and be even more motivated now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any ceasefire settlement must include reparations.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1582364302496841728

[Omega21]

Well, the new Russian commander certainly is working hard to confirm the rumors about his bold (or ruthless) leadership style

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

Getting back to topic: how is Ukraine going to deal with this during the winter? That's clearly the Russian goal here--a country without heat and power in a lot of places will find it tough to put up a fight.

And how will the West help Ukraine when it comes to this kind of infrastructure?

Well, it seems since the new "supreme commander" of the whole UA Theater took over, attacks to disable UA infrastructure have been better planned, systematic & fairly constant, so I assume UA will be facing many blackouts very soon if it continues.

There is nothing really that the West can do short term. The infrastructure being hit is not replaceable over night.

Another bad sign is that UA is now officially pleading for Israeli AA systems, a sign that they are unable to cope with the attacks, even though the opposite is being claimed by their psyops.

But I do not believe that blackouts alone would lead to UA "losing".

[Silent Hunter]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

[Dr. Arch]

Done posting...

This thread is a crap thread especially in early morning and late at night.

Thought I actually provided real stuff, ignore trolls without putting them on ignore, but yet apparently none of my contributions matter, while meanwhile Troll attention whores get all of the action.

Maybe a time zone scene, but whatever...

Burnt out too much heavy sh*t going on in my personal life, so why bother anymore?

Spent way too many hours of my life invested in Putin's genocidal war in Ukraine, and really it seems like this thread is a handful of individuals who actually care, a bunch of trolls who are rooting for Russia to win, and tons of "Meme Posters"...

Why Bother... depressed in Oregon.

This is one of the biggest reasons I stopped posting frequently at large. There's just not a lot of substantive discussion, and threads are often dominated by the usual suspects with the same schtick or response to a wide range of issues.

Just know that I read each and every one of your posts, even though I don't respond much anymore. I completely understand where you're coming from.

[Omega21]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

[Sol]

Done posting...

This thread is a crap thread especially in early morning and late at night.

Thought I actually provided real stuff, ignore trolls without putting them on ignore, but yet apparently none of my contributions matter, while meanwhile Troll attention whores get all of the action.

Maybe a time zone scene, but whatever...

Burnt out too much heavy sh*t going on in my personal life, so why bother anymore?

Spent way too many hours of my life invested in Putin's genocidal war in Ukraine, and really it seems like this thread is a handful of individuals who actually care, a bunch of trolls who are rooting for Russia to win, and tons of "Meme Posters"...

Why Bother... depressed in Oregon.

Please do know that I personally have enjoyed your posts in this thread a great deal--it's been very helpful in following the conflict. Hope you are doing well.

I will say I do think the mods here need to do major cleanup. Trolls (or people like TimTurner who are functionally equivalent) and people responding to them have drowned out actual news developments in this thread. Make some Ukraine flamewar sewer thread if you have to, but that stuff clogs up this thread and should be deleted without remorse.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1582279794242486277?s=20&t=eoU49gEC...

https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1582321470524784643?s=20&t=eoU49gECH3p...

[TheReckoning]

It is ironic that given how many Russo-Persian wars took place between the 1650s and 1820s now Iran emerge as a key ally for Russia.

Fascist Russia and Theocratic Fascist Iran agree on one thing: the western world order of democracy and human rights, not to mention US power, must be overturned.

Neither of those two regimes are even remotely close to fascism.

"Not even remotely close".

Imagine unironically believing this.

The poster in question also thinks Pinochet wasn't right wing.

Oh FFs, that’s not what I said at all. I said that just as Pinochet was right wing in part because of his privatization schemes, the Ayatollah’s are left wing because of their nationalization schemes. How is that argument hard to follow?

[TheReckoning]

There's no better telltale sign of a pseudointellectual than someone who insists on a hyperspecific definition of fascism that happens to exclude any current political movement or regime with obvious and glaring similarities to historical fascism.

There’s nothing “hyperspecific” about using the definition that fascists themselves used when they developed their ideology. Otherwise, I could call the push for universal healthcare in the United States communism, because it bears some resemblance to something Vladimir Lenin happened to say once.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=liBBie_T...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=liBBie_T...

It's odd that we're seeing so much anticipation (including some outright fake news a few days ago) about a Ukrainian Kherson offensive by Russian sources. I have to wonder if there's anything to it or if it's all information warfare, but I'm also not clear on what Russia stands to gain by scaring its own people sh*tless about an upcoming offensive.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=liBBie_T...

It's odd that we're seeing so much anticipation (including some outright fake news a few days ago) about a Ukrainian Kherson offensive by Russian sources. I have to wonder if there's anything to it or if it's all information warfare, but I'm also not clear on what Russia stands to gain by scaring its own people sh*tless about an upcoming offensive.

Can’t rule out that this is the Generals indirectly asking Putin for permission to leave.

[Virginiá]

With the Kerch bridge largely out of service right now, and the Ukrainians pushing their line of contact hard, it's not surprising Russia is preparing to fall back across the river. They should have done this nearly 2 months ago. It was absurd to think they hold the west bank in the condition their army was in. Putin has a habit of only making tough decisions until the very last minute when there is a huge penalty for waiting, instead of being more strategic about it while preserving the most of their forces. He's just not a competent leader, and thank god for that.

[Woody]

From Pro-Russian source "Intel Slava Z" telegram

The impending attack on Kherson is the last attempt by Kiev to take advantage of the numerical advantage at the front. It is better for the peaceful civilians to leave, the Russian army will fight seriously this time!

Over the past couple of weeks, we have witnessed dramatic changes in the tactics of conducting SMO, it is obvious that this coincided with the appointment of a new commander - General Surovikin. We already wrote earlier that before the arrival of reserves and those mobilized from the regions of Russia to the front, Kiev has a very small window of opportunity to attempt a counterattack in the Kherson direction. It is the capture of Kherson, as the only regional center liberated by Russia, that the British and American "masters" set for Zelensky as the main task. And as reported, the “deadline” for this task is no longer measured in months, but in weeks. Obviously, Kiev will throw into battle all available reserves, while spitting on the lives of soldiers and officers. The war to the last Ukrainian will continue.

In this regard, it is worth noting once again that the decision to evacuate civilians and prepare Kherson for defense is the only correct one. The lives of citizens of the Russian Federation will be saved, and Russian troops will have the opportunity to build fortified areas and freedom of tactical maneuvers. It is possible that subsequently Kherson may also become a springboard for the further offensive of our army on the lands still occupied by Kiev.

[Woody]

Essentially Russians are not leaving Kherson, but turning it into a entrenched "fortress city" meant to be a grinder for the attacking Ukrainian armies.

[Woody]

Shahed drone raid in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporozhye City.

https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1581045791380058112
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1582455830292881410

[Woody]

After the 2014 conflict.. Strelkov is now back in a commanding position reportedly.. or might just be a regular volunteer. Ukrainians give 100k for his head.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1582440747382738945
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1582385126335389696

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=liBBie_T...

It's odd that we're seeing so much anticipation (including some outright fake news a few days ago) about a Ukrainian Kherson offensive by Russian sources. I have to wonder if there's anything to it or if it's all information warfare, but I'm also not clear on what Russia stands to gain by scaring its own people sh*tless about an upcoming offensive.

More anticipation about a supposed Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast. Nothing has come to surface publicly that would explain such a drastic change in messaging from this afternoon to this evening.

I'd guess it's just the old propaganda tactic of using opposing narratives at the same time. One is the official "everything is fine" narrative, the other is the bad outcome (in this case a Ukrainian offensive causing a Russian withdrawal/evacuation across the Dnipro/Dnieper River). In case the bad outcome occurs (which seems likely atm), the government doesn't look as bad as it would if the government messaging was only "everything is fine" until the proverbial s*** hits the fan.

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1582468011130486785?s=20&t=LOI_oW_cXXQ...