Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576562042198073345

[Hollywood]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

Vladimir Putin has always been a bit of an emotionless robot (this should have been a warning sign as early as 2000), now it turns out he's the dispassionate, emotionless, Russian-speaking version of Donald Trump.

Considering that his speeches seem to be based on anti-Western, anti-liberal rants he found on Twitter, the question is justified whether he just spent too much time on the Internet during COVID lockdowns.

WTF?  Isn't this just the perspective of the average Russian.  These people hate globalists, western powers, and establishment neocons of both the left and right-wing.  They don't see any differently than George Bush, but they likely abhor the divisive woke policies and the transgender to pedophilia attitudes espoused by the left-wing.  I find this attitude among a majority of english-speaking foreigners like Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Middle Eastern, etc.  You can't write a report detailing all the ways you're going to conspire with other nations to F with Russia, and then expect Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, India, etc.to trust a word coming out of your mouth.  
file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063%20(1).pdf

I don't even understand what you are trying to say here.

Communicate clearer, please.

I don't know man.  I think I see things too different from you to get my point across.  When I listen to the Russian English-translated version of Putin, his statements make sense to me. The paper I posted from 2019 provides the context behind the attitudes and politics of average Russians.  The man is not paranoid or crazy.  The Rand Corporation details numerous foreign policy and military actions that support Putin's claim that the West (NATO, USA) is attacking Russian interest and threatening their national security.  It's not some trumped up conspiracy on Twitter when the US write a 300 page report about it.  

One example of US actions to undermine Russian national security relates to Syria.  The US provided weapons to the rebels (ISIS) that the US and the media depicted as 'Moderate Muslims', and we helped these Islamic extremists destabilize the Assad Regime.  Our goal was to overextend Russian resources by dragging them into a conflict for which they had a National Security Interest.  The end result was the formation of an Islamic State that committed genocide against Yazidis Iraqis, Christians, Gays, and Apostates.  We helped a terrorist state commit war crimes for the sole purpose of destabilizing Russia.  

This happened.  It isn't a debate.  In context of US actions like the ones committed in Syria, how can one possibly understand Russian history and national security interests when they aren't informed of it?  Our actions in Syria and Ukraine cannot be analyzed independently, because they are part of the same campaign to weaken Russia. All this is justified by global elitists from Anglo-Saxon countries in the west.  It is the belief of the US, Germany, the UK, etc. that NATO's Global Initiatives are always good.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know man.  I think I see things too different from you to get my point across.  When I listen to the Russian English-translated version of Putin, his statements make sense to me.

No, the problem is that you're prone to the same type of incoherent ramblings and mental masturbation as Comrade Putin, Donald Trunp, or your conspiracy theorist brethren in this very thread. Which is about as much fun as getting anally raped by a hot iron poker 24/7, I tell you.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576562042198073345

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1576556077163970560?s=20&t=8KlD0kL-LAgN...

[Hollywood]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576562042198073345

It'll be interesting to see if they can push through to Kreminna, but then what do they do?  They are really getting hammered by aerial assaults and artillery.  Russia has definitely reinforced this area after taking Lyman, but it seems the failure to hold the town has lit a firecracker under the Russian High Command given the number of strikes launched today.  

To the N in Kupyansk segment, the Russian have a Specialized UAV unit that is constantly putting pressure on Ukraine's 14th and 92nd Brigade, resulting in over 100 servicemen and 12 units of military equipment.  https://t.me/s/rybar

DISASTROUS CHERSON OFFENSIVE (Video Evidence)

Yesterday might have been a great day if not for the stupid offensive in Cherson over the last 24 hours.  The most active offensive operations with forces of up to six battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including two tank ones, were carried out in the direction of the settlement DAVYDOV BROD.  At the same time, two reinforced battalion tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an attack on the positions of Russian troops in the areas of settlements BRUSKINSKOE and KOSTROMKA. As a result of stubborn defense and massive fire strikes by Russian troops, the enemy offensive in this area was thwarted.  A total of 31 tanks, 78 units of special equipment and more than 240 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed.  In just a day of active hostilities in the Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih direction, Russian troops destroyed 43 Ukrainian tanks, 89 units of other military equipment and over 400 Ukrainian servicemen.  Russian artillery and aviation attacked the concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the railway station "Bereznegovatoe" . As a result of the strike, the enemy lost more than 100 people wounded and several dozen killed.  
https://rumble.com/v1m4ade-10.02.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

The Offensive is still on-going, and casualties are enormous.  Not only did Russia manage to annihilate every push before Ukrainian troops before they could roll into defensive line, but brigades and supply depots were annihilated before they left from their Forward Operating Bases.
The Military Actions is still on-going.  The Ukrainians are so depleted of men and ammo that they may lose Arkhanheiske in the next 24 hours, and give Russia a path to Vysokopillia.   https://t.me/s/rybar

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1576507031799746565?s=20&t=8KlD0kL-LAg...

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1576553151716548609?s=20&t=8KlD0kL-...

[jaichind]

It seems that Russia most likely already made the call that Lyman was not holdable given the size of the Ukrainian offensive a week or two ago.  But Russia took the risk of holding on to it and having the LPR  garrison get cut off to avoid the poor PR of having to give up the city during the referendum.  After the referendum then a Russian force attacked Lyman and got the LPR garrison out.  With causality figures being released from both sides that should correctly be viewed as propaganda it is not clear if this delay was worth it.  Clearly, any military decision dictated by political factors cannot possibly be optimal so Russia most likely was a net loser from all this but is not clear by how much.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576562042198073345

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576568752845443073?s=20&t=3pOYrusS...

[Hollywood]

I don't know man.  I think I see things too different from you to get my point across.  When I listen to the Russian English-translated version of Putin, his statements make sense to me.

No, the problem is that you're prone to the same type of incoherent ramblings and mental masturbation as Comrade Putin, Donald Trunp, or your conspiracy theorist brethren in this very thread. Which is about as much fun as getting anally raped by a hot iron poker 24/7, I tell you.

Dude my point is supported by F-ing US Intelligence Report created in 2019 that I linked in my previous post.  It is the government explaining how all the policies and actions pursued by the United States against Russia is part of strategy to undermine their government.  Period.  It is US Intelligence Agents admitting, "Yes we are threatening Russia's National Security, and here's how we're doing it".  If you want to stay ignorant then go ahead.  What your saying is just as boring as the next uninformed A-Hole that parrots the propaganda.  

[Torie]

It seems that Russia most likely already made the call that Lyman was not holdable given the size of the Ukrainian offensive a week or two ago.  But Russia took the risk of holding on to it and having the LPR  garrison get cut off to avoid the poor PR of having to give up the city during the referendum.  After the referendum then a Russian force attacked Lyman and got the LPR garrison out.  With causality figures being released from both sides that should correctly be viewed as propaganda it is not clear if this delay was worth it.  Clearly, any military decision dictated by political factors cannot possibly be optimal so Russia most likely was a net loser from all this but is not clear by how much.

Presentation is everything. Russia losing Lyman at the same time Putin was starring in two shows in the theater of the absurd, where the bit actors in the room where not given enough drugs to smile, and then the other show where the stage extras may have just been digitalized avatars to compliment Putin's virtual appearance, would have just been too inimical to suspending one's disbelief. Against that, Russia sacrificing a couple or few thousand troops is rounding error, in the Putin show.

[DINGO Joe]

It seems that Russia most likely already made the call that Lyman was not holdable given the size of the Ukrainian offensive a week or two ago.  But Russia took the risk of holding on to it and having the LPR  garrison get cut off to avoid the poor PR of having to give up the city during the referendum.  After the referendum then a Russian force attacked Lyman and got the LPR garrison out.  With causality figures being released from both sides that should correctly be viewed as propaganda it is not clear if this delay was worth it.  Clearly, any military decision dictated by political factors cannot possibly be optimal so Russia most likely was a net loser from all this but is not clear by how much.

OK, which makes the reporting from Russian telegraph channels that they didn't build defensive lines in Kreminna during that time fairly astounding--or not as the ability of the RU to do anything at this point is minimal.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1576512074540519425?s=20&t=3pOYrusSUI...

[Hollywood]

It seems that Russia most likely already made the call that Lyman was not holdable given the size of the Ukrainian offensive a week or two ago.  But Russia took the risk of holding on to it and having the LPR  garrison get cut off to avoid the poor PR of having to give up the city during the referendum.  After the referendum then a Russian force attacked Lyman and got the LPR garrison out.  With causality figures being released from both sides that should correctly be viewed as propaganda it is not clear if this delay was worth it.  Clearly, any military decision dictated by political factors cannot possibly be optimal so Russia most likely was a net loser from all this but is not clear by how much.

OK, which makes the reporting from Russian telegraph channels that they didn't build defensive lines in Kreminna during that time fairly astounding--or not as the ability of the RU to do anything at this point is minimal.

Its only been 12-18 hours.  Seems they already arrived, but it could be a bluff.  I'm treating this like propaganda until its confirmed.  

"Units of the allied forces were brought to Kremennaya engineering equipment to prepare long-term strongholds. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensively shelling the city from 155-mm guns."
https://t.me/s/rybar

[KaiserDave]

-Snip-

Let me just start out by re-stating that the invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong.....

Blablablabla apologism blablablabla nonsense

No

Its worth asking, what proportion of Russians are actually hard core Duginists?

Despite all the propaganda, its got to be a definite minority - and maybe quite a small one.

I can't imagine there are many! How many people go out and take in that kind of esoteric philosophy. I'll say as well that I think Dugin/Dugin's writing influence of Putin is highly overrated by western media. There is evidence that his admiration for the far-right ultranationalist white emigré Ivan Ilyin is more important.

Come let us reason together. Let us start with the KD:

“I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.”

Inasmuch as Tucker Carlson is not a poster here, I am not sure anyone, even the handful of what some might uncharitably describe as Putin’s useful idiots, have made much of an effort to describe Putin’s actions as “reasonable.” However, there is certainly a case to be made for giving Putin face saving off ramps, because to the extent that the only forks in the road are reduced to Putin achieving his objectives or being in effect executed, that makes matters much more dangerous.  One can muse about the design of such off ramps (none of them can entail of course in effect rewarding Putin for his crimes), but at the moment it is somewhat of a moot point because Putin’s job one seemingly is to destroy any off ramps that may be offered up out there on the far horizon. But more reverses on the battle field, and more domestic unrest, might cause a course correction. Sure, the most dangerous Manichean twin forks intersection may be inevitable, but the last thing left in Pandora’s Box is hope. One must try.

But what off ramps? What could Ukraine and the West possibly offer Putin as a way out of this quagmire he's blundered himself into? Putin has made it clear he views a large portion of core Ukrainian territory as just as Russia as Moscow, and that's as a start. Putin will not, under any circumstances accept a settlement that reverses these gains, and Ukraine will rightfully not accept a settlement that legitimizes Russia's invasion by handing over territory.

So where are we left? I'm not worried about Putin's objectives being eventually achieved. I am not worried about Putin's new army of apathetic middle aged men. I agree with the head of the Ukrainian Forces General Valerii Zaluzhnyi who said "We finished off Russian professional army, now it's time to finish the amateur one." Ukraine has more than proven that they are capable of containing Russia's forces in the occupied areas, and that the Ukrainian forces are capable of offensive attack.

Therefore the only possible road for the west to go down is to continue their support for Ukraine to the maximum, continue vigilance on sanctions to the maximum, and continue the course. There is no acceptable "off ramp" unless Putin does a total about face and agrees to return to the status quo before the war (which he will never do). Putin started this war, and he has escalated it. The only choice now for Ukraine to win the war, and reclaim their pre-war territories irrespective of these "annexations."

[Torie]

One keeps in mind the possibility of off ramps, even if they are unlikely to prove a way out of the abyss. As I said, some territorial accommodation via say real referenda in exchange for Russia accepting that Ukraine become a NATO member might have some merit. Reasonable people can disagree and in the end it is Ukraine's call. But no need to fence about it now, since it is wholly hypothetical at the moment.

[KaiserDave]

One keeps in mind the possibility of off ramps, even if they are unlikely to prove a way out of the abyss. As I said, some territorial accommodation via say real referenda in exchange for Russia accepting that Ukraine become a NATO member might have some merit. Reasonable people can disagree and in the end it is Ukraine's call. But no need to fence about it now, since it is wholly hypothetical at the moment.

1. A "real referendum" is not possible, not with the massive population displacement that's taken place, or with the fact that any referendum would take place with the looming memory and threat of Russian invasion at all times. It was also not possible in January of 2022 or 2014.

2. This is not a deal that Putin would ever accept. He just declared that these territories are irrevocably Russian, "forever." When has Putin ever shown a proclivity for reasonable deal-making with regards to Ukraine? This is what I mean, I think people have this idea of Putin and his associates being far more reasonable than they have shown themselves to be. Now I've always supported the possibility of real status referendums in Donbass in an ideal world, but that's not possible. You also imply that these referendums would imply some sort of territorial accommodation, and while before the war I was not totally opposed to the idea of the equitable, democratic, succession of parts of the Donbass region, Ukraine should not agree to any territorial concessions of land stolen by Russia after February 24th, nor have they shown any willingness to, which I applaud. This is war for their right to exist, and they should wage it with great strength.

That said, you're right, this is a wild hypothetical, we have no need to argue it. Just wanted to complete my point.

[Frodo]

After President Zelenskyy indicated he wants Ukraine to join NATO, nine NATO countries now support Ukraine's bid to join the alliance:

9 NATO members urge support for Ukraine after annexation

Those nine include the former Czechoslovakia (two), Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania.

[Torie]

After President Zelenskyy indicated he wants Ukraine to join NATO, nine NATO countries now support Ukraine's bid to join the alliance:

9 NATO members urge support for Ukraine after annexation

Those nine include the former Czechoslovakia (two), Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania.

Well if Ukraine is in NATO, then US troops go straight into Ukraine, and one way or the other, the war comes to a very quick end. Scratch that one for the moment, alas. In fact, the very act of the US supporting NATO membership is close to the functional equivalent of the US declaring war on Russia, and its troops going in.

[Frodo]

After President Zelenskyy indicated he wants Ukraine to join NATO, nine NATO countries now support Ukraine's bid to join the alliance:

9 NATO members urge support for Ukraine after annexation

Those nine include the former Czechoslovakia (two), Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania.

Well if Ukraine is in NATO, then US troops go straight into Ukraine, and one way or the other, the war comes to a very quick end. Scratch that one for the moment, alas. In fact, the very act of the US supporting NATO membership is close to the functional equivalent of the US declaring war on Russia, and its troops going in.

I am sure Ukraine will only be allowed to join after the war, and rightly so.  Nothing is happening unless we give our assent in any case.  

[Person Man]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

[Frodo]

Allies aim for risky Russian oil price cap as winter nears

[GeneralMacArthur]

Can y'all please stop turning every page of this thread into a giant wall of text that gets quoted over and over in your endless debate with the boneheaded fool Hollywood?  Just ignore him.  Or mods, move his BS to its own thread.

[HillGoose]

All this is justified by global elitists from Anglo-Saxon countries in the west.  It is the belief of the US, Germany, the UK, etc. that NATO's Global Initiatives are always good.

lmao because they are, cope harder commie

[jaichind]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return. 

[Splash]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416