Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Kadryov (who alleges he wasn't allowed to retire) takes aim at the commander of one of Russia's four military districts and calls for the use of nukes.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576212735527829505

Another Crimean airbase aflame:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065

It was reported that the previous attacks on Russian military targets on Crimea were highly successful and had a devastating impact on the Russian army's ability to operate. Encouraging news this seems to happen again. It's also worth noting that Russia apparently was again unable to prevent this from happening.

I hope Ukraine can make more gains in the South and seriously launch a liberation offensive to take the entire peninsula back.

[Torie]

For those of you who are not up to speed on the matter of tactical nukes, the essay below might be helpful. It seems that, aside the issue of more real estate being subject to a silent spring, they are not much different from the most thoroughly modern conventional bombs these days, which is why perhaps Europe abandoned them (it does not have much real estate to spare for silent springs), and the US just has a few odd ones left. But because Russia's conventional hardware of destruction tends to not be the best (shocking I know), it has a couple of thousand of these baby nukes on hand to try to make up for that. But given that what is in play is mother Russia itself, now that it just expressed its love for Putin by a margin of 95% or more, putting aside from what Putin's detractors might think, their use would be consigning to a silent spring considerable swaths of Russia itself.

So on balance I found the piece reassuring. That, along with the spat of articles in the last week about the US and UK having elaborate plans to eliminate Putin if he gets carried away.

So let the conventional slaughter continue, as the planet's quality of life declines, and we sink into a painful recession, with the value of assets everywhere slashed by a third or more. Putin may not get his way, but he's in everyone's life, up close and personal.

https://theconversation.com/what-are-tactical-nuclear-weapons-an-international-security-expert-explains-and-assesses-what-they-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine-191167

[Hollywood]

The Russians have retreated from Lyman to the NE after Russian airstrikes created a path through Ukrainian lines.  They crossed the Zherebets River into the town of Torskoye, and blew the bridge to slow Ukrainian advances.  The road from Torskoye to Kreminnaya is under constant fired from the Ukrainian Forces heading up from the South, and the Ukrainians seem to be attempting to tie Russian Forces up in fights.  https://t.me/s/rybar

Over 6k Ukrainian Troops attacked Lyman, and more than 12k (possibly 20k) took part in the operation.  The Ukrainians suffered more than 2k (possibly 4k) casualties during their offensive on Lyman.  Sources indicate that maybe 1,000 solider and a few hundred Donetsk Milita were defending Lyman, and a few thousand Russian soldier took part in the total operation (defense of the reservoir/river and reinforcement mission from the Kreminnaya direction).  The high casualties for Ukraine are the result of repeated airstrikes on massed armored divisions, and the same resulted in Cherson.  The Russian Army didn't lose anything close to 6k, or whatever BS number some people are throwing around.  I don't think they lost 6k during the whole Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, because the vast majority of these position like Izium was held by Donetsk Militia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For those of you who are not up to speed on the matter of tactical nukes, the essay below might be helpful. It seems that, aside the issue of more real estate being subject to a silent spring, they are not much different from the most thoroughly modern conventional bombs these days, which is why perhaps Europe abandoned them (it does not have much real estate to spare for silent springs), and the US just has a few odd ones left. But because Russia's conventional hardware of destruction tends to not be the best (shocking I know), it has a couple of thousand of these baby nukes on hand to try to make up for that. But given that what is in play is mother Russia itself, now that it just expressed its love for Putin by a margin of 95% or more, putting aside from what Putin's detractors might think, their use would be consigning to a silent spring considerable swaths of Russia itself.

So on balance I found the piece reassuring. That, along with the spat of articles in the last week about the US and UK having elaborate plans to eliminate Putin if he gets carried away.

So let the conventional slaughter continue, as the planet's quality of life declines, and we sink into a painful recession, with the value of assets everywhere slashed by a third or more. Putin may not get his way, but he's in everyone's life, up close and personal.

https://theconversation.com/what-are-tactical-nuclear-weapons-an-international-security-expert-explains-and-assesses-what-they-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine-191167

It's must have been a couple of months ago now that I read a similar assessment that the damage from tactical nukes in Ukraine wouldn't be that much different from a huge conventional bomb and that the use of nukes on the Ukrainian battlefield would have more of a symbolic (or let's rather say "shock") value for Putin.

[Hollywood]

Kadryov (who alleges he wasn't allowed to retire) takes aim at the commander of one of Russia's four military districts and calls for the use of nukes.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576212735527829505

Another Crimean airbase aflame:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065

The airbase is fine.  Per the video on Rybar, plane rolls off the tarmac and explodes when it falls down the cliff.  It's the post at 11:57.

https://t.me/s/rybar

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys are arguing with Beet? Don’t even bother. Contrarianism at its worst.

Remember when Beet became a Trump supporter? LMAO.

[HillGoose]

The Russians have retreated from Lyman to the NE after Russian airstrikes created a path through Ukrainian lines.  They crossed the Zherebets River into the town of Torskoye, and blew the bridge to slow Ukrainian advances.  The road from Torskoye to Kreminnaya is under constant fired from the Ukrainian Forces heading up from the South, and the Ukrainians seem to be attempting to tie Russian Forces up in fights.  https://t.me/s/rybar

Over 6k Ukrainian Troops attacked Lyman, and more than 12k (possibly 20k) took part in the operation.  The Ukrainians suffered more than 2k (possibly 4k) casualties during their offensive on Lyman.  Sources indicate that maybe 1,000 solider and a few hundred Donetsk Milita were defending Lyman, and a few thousand Russian soldier took part in the total operation (defense of the reservoir/river and reinforcement mission from the Kreminnaya direction).  The high casualties for Ukraine are the result of repeated airstrikes on massed armored divisions, and the same resulted in Cherson.  The Russian Army didn't lose anything close to 6k, or whatever BS number some people are throwing around.  I don't think they lost 6k during the whole Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, because the vast majority of these position like Izium was held by Donetsk Militia.

bro those Rubles are gonna be worthless as soon as the Coalition of the Willing rolls into Moscow

[Torie]

The Russians have retreated from Lyman to the NE after Russian airstrikes created a path through Ukrainian lines.  They crossed the Zherebets River into the town of Torskoye, and blew the bridge to slow Ukrainian advances.  The road from Torskoye to Kreminnaya is under constant fired from the Ukrainian Forces heading up from the South, and the Ukrainians seem to be attempting to tie Russian Forces up in fights.  https://t.me/s/rybar

Over 6k Ukrainian Troops attacked Lyman, and more than 12k (possibly 20k) took part in the operation.  The Ukrainians suffered more than 2k (possibly 4k) casualties during their offensive on Lyman.  Sources indicate that maybe 1,000 solider and a few hundred Donetsk Milita were defending Lyman, and a few thousand Russian soldier took part in the total operation (defense of the reservoir/river and reinforcement mission from the Kreminnaya direction).  The high casualties for Ukraine are the result of repeated airstrikes on massed armored divisions, and the same resulted in Cherson.  The Russian Army didn't lose anything close to 6k, or whatever BS number some people are throwing around.  I don't think they lost 6k during the whole Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, because the vast majority of these position like Izium was held by Donetsk Militia.

Is your second paragraph your own prose thereby making it unnecessary to link to an external source? In any event, it just goes to show how apparent victories can actually be terrible losses, the battle of Lyman being the battle of Asculum all over again. Who knew except you?

As to the link embedded in your first paragraph, it does offer up a video* that to my eyes seems to indicate that whether or not the plane came to bad end, it was some missile thing that seemed to skid along and then ignite some fossil fuel pool. So the coincidence may be that both a Russian plane had maintenance or pilot issues, while at the same time a  missile** from the heavens paid a visit to the peninsula. Nice beach area by the way with very attractive cliffs. I can see why Putin fell in live with that particular swath of real estate. Putin's real talents are as a real estate broker. It certainly is not as a military strategist, or a logistics guy, or in human resources, or as an orator.

* https://t.me/mig41/20968

"The airbase is fine.  Per the video on Rybar, plane rolls off the tarmac and explodes when it falls down the cliff."  I don't know about the airbase, but what I saw did  not appear to be a "plane falling down a cliff." What do you think?

** missile update requested. When will Ukraine catch up with Russia in the number of missiles it can fire from afar? That should give Ukraine an advantage since it focuses on military targets, while Russia diverts a substantial portion of theirs on terrorizing civilians as part of its ethnic cleansing campaign.

[NYDem]

I heard that Ukraine took eleventy-billion casualties in their attack on Lyman, which the Russians retreated from without so much as a single lost vehicle.

Source: my ass

[windjammer]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

[Torie]

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

Hey, at the very least Putin has signed some pieces of paper declaring Ukrainian territory - of which at least parts are actually occupied by Russian troops at the moment - to be oblasts of the Russian Federation. That must count for something, right? Right?


(Annexing territory that you don't even de facto control is a pretty lame-ass low-energy move IMO.
Orange: Territory formally claimed by Russia.
Red line: Territory actually controlled by Russia atm.

)

Guys, the prior page is still broken, and I don't know which of the posts above is now the perp, but it needs to be fixed asap. Since I spend so much time on this thread, I find it particularly annoying.

The mods for whatever reason are slow to respond on this Board (maybe busy lives, maybe time zone differences, maybe both), but if that is the way it is now, I think I may offer my services as a magistrate mod of this board, so while the two now in charge are the judges, I am there in their absence as their junior magistrate to do the minor chores of cleaning up broken pages, or some obvious turd that needs to be promptly flushed. The heavy lifting and policy decisions can still be left to them. I would just be here to deal with the bassura. Thank you.

[Torie]

A couple of arresting images for me.

In this one, the thought occurred to me that Putin usually appears virtually these days. I don’t blame him.



In the second image, at a venue where Putin appeared in the flesh (did they have metal detectors at the entrance?) notice the celebratory ecstasy of Putin’s handpicked flunkies as Putin announces the enosis of the 4 Ukrainian oblasts with Russia for all eternity.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

Hey, at the very least Putin has signed some pieces of paper declaring Ukrainian territory - of which at least parts are actually occupied by Russian troops at the moment - to be oblasts of the Russian Federation. That must count for something, right? Right?


(Annexing territory that you don't even de facto control is a pretty lame-ass low-energy move IMO.
Orange: Territory formally claimed by Russia.
Red line: Territory actually controlled by Russia atm.

)

Guys, the prior page is still broken, and I don't know which of the posts above is now the perp, but it needs to be fixed asap. Since I spend so much time on this thread, I find it particularly annoying.

The mods for whatever reason are slow to respond on this Board (maybe busy lives, maybe time zone differences, maybe both), but if that is the way it is now, I think I may offer my services as a magistrate mod of this board, so while the two now in charge are the judges, I am there in their absence as their junior magistrate to do the minor chores of cleaning up broken pages, or some obvious turd that needs to be promptly flushed. The heavy lifting and policy decisions can still be left to them. I would just be here to deal with the bassura. Thank you.

I had made my map smaller
It's Flying Mongoose...

[jaichind]

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/100122-russias-gazprom-halts-gas-supplies-to-italys-eni-due-to-austrian-regulatory-changes

"Russia's Gazprom halts gas supplies to Italy's Eni due to Austrian 'regulatory changes'"

Russia halts gas supplies to Italy because they said that Austria refuses to provide documentation that gas going to Italy via Austria transit is actually going to Italy.

[Hollywood]

The Russians have retreated from Lyman to the NE after Russian airstrikes created a path through Ukrainian lines.  They crossed the Zherebets River into the town of Torskoye, and blew the bridge to slow Ukrainian advances.  The road from Torskoye to Kreminnaya is under constant fired from the Ukrainian Forces heading up from the South, and the Ukrainians seem to be attempting to tie Russian Forces up in fights.  https://t.me/s/rybar

Over 6k Ukrainian Troops attacked Lyman, and more than 12k (possibly 20k) took part in the operation.  The Ukrainians suffered more than 2k (possibly 4k) casualties during their offensive on Lyman.  Sources indicate that maybe 1,000 solider and a few hundred Donetsk Milita were defending Lyman, and a few thousand Russian soldier took part in the total operation (defense of the reservoir/river and reinforcement mission from the Kreminnaya direction).  The high casualties for Ukraine are the result of repeated airstrikes on massed armored divisions, and the same resulted in Cherson.  The Russian Army didn't lose anything close to 6k, or whatever BS number some people are throwing around.  I don't think they lost 6k during the whole Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, because the vast majority of these position like Izium was held by Donetsk Militia.

Is your second paragraph your own prose thereby making it unnecessary to link to an external source? In any event, it just goes to show how apparent victories can actually be terrible losses, the battle of Lyman being the battle of Asculum all over again. Who knew except you?

As to the link embedded in your first paragraph, it does offer up a video* that to my eyes seems to indicate that whether or not the plane came to bad end, it was some missile thing that seemed to skid along and then ignite some fossil fuel pool. So the coincidence may be that both a Russian plane had maintenance or pilot issues, while at the same time a  missile** from the heavens paid a visit to the peninsula. Nice beach area by the way with very attractive cliffs. I can see why Putin fell in live with that particular swath of real estate. Putin's real talents are as a real estate broker. It certainly is not as a military strategist, or a logistics guy, or in human resources, or as an orator.

* https://t.me/mig41/20968

"The airbase is fine.  Per the video on Rybar, plane rolls off the tarmac and explodes when it falls down the cliff."  I don't know about the airbase, but what I saw did  not appear to be a "plane falling down a cliff." What do you think?

** missile update requested. When will Ukraine catch up with Russia in the number of missiles it can fire from afar? That should give Ukraine an advantage since it focuses on military targets, while Russia diverts a substantial portion of theirs on terrorizing civilians as part of its ethnic cleansing campaign.

Rybar has been posting the most relied upon sources for military information on the ground in Ukraine, and they have disseminated incredibly accurate battle reports from journalists embedded behind the Russian Army.  They had indicated Ukrainian victory in Lyman about 12 hours before anyone posted videos of Ukrainian Soldiers erecting their flags.  Rybar wrote stories about the Kharkiv Offensive a couple of weeks before it happened, and had were first to report the massive casualties on Cherson Front.  If all I did was look on Twitter and Google for information, then I wouldn't have anything to add.  The only version I'd know of Lyman is a censored depiction of the battle in which  Ukrainians easily rolled through the defense, and completely eviscerated thousands Russian Soldiers.  This one town took longer to take than the 1,100 square miles gain at the beginning of the Kharkiv Offensive (20 Days).  Clearly, they had problems.  

[jaichind]

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/financing-ukraines-victory-why-and-how

Efficiency. Russia is the main military threat to European stability, and Ukraine’s armed forces have been effective in destroying a large volume of Russian military equipment and capability at a low cost. For instance, official aid to Ukraine of all sorts – financial, military and humanitarian – so far is estimated at $85 billion,8 which is just 7% of the 2022 defence budgets of NATO members.

Well, it is efficient from the deep pockets of NATO's point of view.  Not sure if it is efficient relative to Russia.  Russia's 2020 military budget seems to be $67 billion. So from a spending efficiency point of view, Russia clearly is stronger.  The problem for Russia is that NATO has much more resources at its disposal in this now very likely long war.

[jaichind]

The Russians have retreated from Lyman to the NE after Russian airstrikes created a path through Ukrainian lines.  They crossed the Zherebets River into the town of Torskoye, and blew the bridge to slow Ukrainian advances.  The road from Torskoye to Kreminnaya is under constant fired from the Ukrainian Forces heading up from the South, and the Ukrainians seem to be attempting to tie Russian Forces up in fights.  https://t.me/s/rybar

Over 6k Ukrainian Troops attacked Lyman, and more than 12k (possibly 20k) took part in the operation.  The Ukrainians suffered more than 2k (possibly 4k) casualties during their offensive on Lyman.  Sources indicate that maybe 1,000 solider and a few hundred Donetsk Milita were defending Lyman, and a few thousand Russian soldier took part in the total operation (defense of the reservoir/river and reinforcement mission from the Kreminnaya direction).  The high casualties for Ukraine are the result of repeated airstrikes on massed armored divisions, and the same resulted in Cherson.  The Russian Army didn't lose anything close to 6k, or whatever BS number some people are throwing around.  I don't think they lost 6k during the whole Ukrainian Kharkiv Offensive, because the vast majority of these position like Izium was held by Donetsk Militia.

Pro-Russian sources claim that there was only a 500-man garrison in Lyman (mostly DPR militia).  That sounds like a undercount and most likely does not count DPR and Russian forces outside of Lyman which were part of the defense against the Ukraine offensive.

[Virginiá]

For those of you who are not up to speed on the matter of tactical nukes, the essay below might be helpful. It seems that, aside the issue of more real estate being subject to a silent spring, they are not much different from the most thoroughly modern conventional bombs these days, which is why perhaps Europe abandoned them (it does not have much real estate to spare for silent springs), and the US just has a few odd ones left. But because Russia's conventional hardware of destruction tends to not be the best (shocking I know), it has a couple of thousand of these baby nukes on hand to try to make up for that. But given that what is in play is mother Russia itself, now that it just expressed its love for Putin by a margin of 95% or more, putting aside from what Putin's detractors might think, their use would be consigning to a silent spring considerable swaths of Russia itself.

So on balance I found the piece reassuring. That, along with the spat of articles in the last week about the US and UK having elaborate plans to eliminate Putin if he gets carried away.

So let the conventional slaughter continue, as the planet's quality of life declines, and we sink into a painful recession, with the value of assets everywhere slashed by a third or more. Putin may not get his way, but he's in everyone's life, up close and personal.

https://theconversation.com/what-are-tactical-nuclear-weapons-an-international-security-expert-explains-and-assesses-what-they-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine-191167

It's must have been a couple of months ago now that I read a similar assessment that the damage from tactical nukes in Ukraine wouldn't be that much different from a huge conventional bomb and that the use of nukes on the Ukrainian battlefield would have more of a symbolic (or let's rather say "shock") value for Putin.

Yes, for instance a tactical nuke in the 8 - 10 kiloton range would be enough to significantly damage or destroy half of Lyman. The problem is that these units aren't all grouped together in a single city or area. They are spread out along the front. Tactical nuclear weapons in the military sense were developed to hit military bases, air fields, depots, and large formations / columns of mechanized units.

I can't think of many scenarios where a nuclear weapon would achieve a goal that they can't achieve with conventional weapons. Maybe a decapitation strike against Ukraine by targeting Kyiv with a strategic nuclear weapon? (so 300+ kt). The international blowback (and the increased support to Ukraine + possibly retaliatory strikes) from using a small tactical nuke doesn't seem worth the limited damage it would do to Ukraine's military forces.

The other thing is, if they are using tactical nukes to actually gain an advantage, they need the troops and vehicles to actually move into the area after the Ukrainians are wiped out, which Russia doesn't really have, else they wouldn't be losing territory in the first place. If they just want to scare Ukraine into halting their advance, that's not going to work at this point.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-rejects-annexation-as-us-sanctions-russia-threatens-any-who-back-land-grab/

"Israel rejects annexation as West sanctions Russia, threatens any who back land grab"

If I were Israel I would keep a low profile when it comes to complaining about annexations

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-rejects-annexation-as-us-sanctions-russia-threatens-any-who-back-land-grab/

"Israel rejects annexation as West sanctions Russia, threatens any who back land grab"

If I were Israel I would keep a low profile when it comes to complaining about annexations

This is such a bad false equivalence but I feel like you know that and you're just pretending to be stupid and hoping other people won't think about it too much.

[Boobs]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-rejects-annexation-as-us-sanctions-russia-threatens-any-who-back-land-grab/

"Israel rejects annexation as West sanctions Russia, threatens any who back land grab"

If I were Israel I would keep a low profile when it comes to complaining about annexations

This is such a bad false equivalence but I feel like you know that and you're just pretending to be stupid and hoping other people won't think about it too much.

His algorithm isn't sophisticated enough for "pretending". What you see is what you get.

[Hollywood]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

Russia has 25,000 well-trained soldiers fighting on the Cherson Front with Reserves.  They also have good defensive field position in which the Ukrainians have to cross the strong currents of Ingulets River on pontoons before trekking through open fields.  They are extremely vulnerable to bombardments.  I posted a few videos one area of the line where numerous armored vehicles are blown apart across miles of open field.  The Russians didn't have anything close in Lyman to the troops and geographic barriers that exist on the West Bank of the Dnipro.  Not even the air force could even the numerical disadvantage the Russians were facing.  

[2952-0-0]

Well, it is efficient from the deep pockets of NATO's point of view.  Not sure if it is efficient relative to Russia.  Russia's 2020 military budget seems to be $67 billion. So from a spending efficiency point of view, Russia clearly is stronger.  The problem for Russia is that NATO has much more resources at its disposal in this now very likely long war.

Russia's military budget is, indeed, super-efficient. At paying for German-made luxury megayachts, Italian luxury mansions, and townhouses in London, which all contribute to the coffers of its supposed enemy.

[Person Man]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576273418710048768?s=20&t=yK5phdvGX...