Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-rejects-annexation-as-us-sanctions-russia-threatens-any-who-back-land-grab/

"Israel rejects annexation as West sanctions Russia, threatens any who back land grab"

If I were Israel I would keep a low profile when it comes to complaining about annexations

Are you kidding? Condemning Russia for annexing Ukraine is basically Israel doing the bare minimum, so they don't become a target.  They are keeping a low profile, except when they're attempting to facilitate peace deals.  Meanwhile, Iran has been sending drones to the frontlines, so for all intents and purposes, Iran is at war with NATO.  I wouldn't be surprised if the civil tension in Tehran is the result of an espionage campaign.  

If I were Israel, I'd re-negotiate some deals the US and Europe.

[AndyHogan14]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

Seems like Kreminna based on chatter on Twitter. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Hollywood]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

"While the topic has gone political, I will return my subscribers to the situation on the LBS. Our group works in Kremennaya. We talked with the fighters and commanders, looked at the new reality. The front line is built around this large settlement. The enemy now has two possible directions for the development of success in our sector: Svatov and Rubezhnoye. https://t.me/s/epoddubny

It's an interesting question.  I think those two directions mentioned by the reporter make sense, because they would be able to cut off the northern road to Lysychansk, and make a play on the city.  The other possibility I've heard mentioned is a possible reinforcement of the Bakmut front, but I don't think they would go straight into strong Russian positions.

[Splash]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

Russia has 25,000 well-trained soldiers fighting on the Cherson Front with Reserves.  They also have good defensive field position in which the Ukrainians have to cross the strong currents of Ingulets River on pontoons before trekking through open fields.  They are extremely vulnerable to bombardments.  I posted a few videos one area of the line where numerous armored vehicles are blown apart across miles of open field.  The Russians didn't have anything close in Lyman to the troops and geographic barriers that exist on the West Bank of the Dnipro.  Not even the air force could even the numerical disadvantage the Russians were facing.  

And therein lies the dilemma for Russia. It takes a high degree of logistical acumen to supply such a force with the food, fuel and ammunition needed to sustain and defend itself, much less launch counteroffensive operations in the region. And that is why the Ukrainian military has been so focused on interdicting Russian supply lines over the Dnipro River. It's obvious that the Russians are exhausting a fair amount of resources simply holding this plot of land and the supposed benefit is not worth the cost, at least in the eyes of the Russian military command. Which is why they've reportedly asked to withdraw their forces to the east bank of the Dnipro. Of course, Putin has said no as he wants to deny Zelensky another win.

As for their part, the Ukrainian high command has made it clear not to expect any lightening offensives in the south of Ukraine. In their words, this is a slow, methodical push to isolate and deplete the Russian forces in the area. If the liberation of Kherson comes, I suspect it will most likely come as a result of the universal recognition among the political pundit class in Russia that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze here and the occupation of Kherson proper isn't essential to Putin's coveted land bridge.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576273418710048768?s=20&t=yK5phdvGX...

Putin didn't lose. He kicked them out. It's always important to keep the initiative. He'll probably "retire" before being ousted from office too.

[Splash]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

Seems like Kreminna based on chatter on Twitter. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Yes, I've heard the same chatter.

I've also heard that the Ukrainians might make a push to evict the Russians from their remaining sliver of land in Kharkiv Oblast and then seize the P66 highway running from Kreminna to Svatove.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Criticism of Russian generals, especially Lapin and to a lesser extent Gerasimov, has intensified. Along with Kadryov, a former general in the Duma and the leader of Wagner have both blasted them today. A prominent Russian milblogger who has spoken out against this criticism is suggesting it is coordinated.

https://www.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576261226044084224

[windjammer]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

[Hollywood]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

Russia has 25,000 well-trained soldiers fighting on the Cherson Front with Reserves.  They also have good defensive field position in which the Ukrainians have to cross the strong currents of Ingulets River on pontoons before trekking through open fields.  They are extremely vulnerable to bombardments.  I posted a few videos one area of the line where numerous armored vehicles are blown apart across miles of open field.  The Russians didn't have anything close in Lyman to the troops and geographic barriers that exist on the West Bank of the Dnipro.  Not even the air force could even the numerical disadvantage the Russians were facing.  

And therein lies the dilemma for Russia. It takes a high degree of logistical acumen to supply such a force with the food, fuel and ammunition needed to sustain and defend itself, much less launch counteroffensive operations in the region. And that is why the Ukrainian military has been so focused on interdicting Russian supply lines over the Dnipro River. It's obvious that the Russians are exhausting a fair amount of resources simply holding this plot of land and the supposed benefit is not worth the cost, at least in the eyes of the Russian military command. Which is why they've reportedly asked to withdraw their forces to the east bank of the Dnipro. Of course, Putin has said no as he wants to deny Zelensky another win.

As for their part, the Ukrainian high command has made it clear not to expect any lightening offensives in the south of Ukraine. In their words, this is a slow, methodical push to isolate and deplete the Russian forces in the area. If the liberation of Kherson comes, I suspect it will most likely come as a result of the universal recognition among the political pundit class in Russia that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze here and the occupation of Kherson proper isn't essential to Putin's coveted land bridge.

I strongly disagree with relocating Russian troops to the Eastern Bank of Dnipro, because the Ukrainians are easy-pickings for bombardment when they trek through open fields after slowly crossing rivers with armored vehicles on the Western Bank.  The Russians have repeatedly destroyed pontoon crossings after letting dozens of vehicles cross into open fields, and the Ukrainians lose hundreds of men during these advances.  Rybar just posted a video of a failed Ukrainian attack on Davydov Brod, where 50 vehicles are destroyed, or abandoned, on the road due to Russian shelling (below).  https://t.me/s/rybar  

I believ  the Russian supply-line issues are over-exaggerated, because I would speculate that their are numerous ways to supply the area with food, gas, ammo, vehicles and heavy weaponry.  Think about Stalingrad.  Think about all the ways illegals get across the border.  Honestly, I think Ukraine has too much trouble identifying and striking supply lines and depots with enough speed and power to substantially paralyze Russian ground units.  If they could, then overwhelming Ukrainian numbers would be able to advance before Russian planes could slow or confine their spread and advance on defensive positions.  

If Cherson were a mere distraction for the Kharkiv Offensive, I'd say it was genius, but Ukraine has lost way too many people over the last few months for it to be a mere ruse.  They want to take it head-on.
They've lost 50 Vehicles on 1 of 4 sections today?  The loss of life was obviously huge as it has been whenever there's miles smoldering vehicles.  How long can the Ukraine lose that many pieces of equipment?

Currently, the Russians have a manpower problem.  They do not have enough soldiers to continuously hold their gains or enable the building of offensives against multiple high value locations.  They have relied on militia from Donestk and lysychansk to hold Kharkiv.  In fact, the militia took Lyman from the Ukrainians.   If the Russians can bring 150,000 Professionally Trained Soldiers/veterans to Ukraine (50%), and additional reservists to free up the professionals already on the ground, then Ukraine is in for some trouble.  

[Person Man]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576273418710048768?s=20&t=yK5phdvGX...

1…. 2… 2 and a half… 2 and three quarters…

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Kadryov (who alleges he wasn't allowed to retire) takes aim at the commander of one of Russia's four military districts and calls for the use of nukes.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576212735527829505

Another Crimean airbase aflame:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065

It was reported that the previous attacks on Russian military targets on Crimea were highly successful and had a devastating impact on the Russian army's ability to operate. Encouraging news this seems to happen again. It's also worth noting that Russia apparently was again unable to prevent this from happening.

I hope Ukraine can make more gains in the South and seriously launch a liberation offensive to take the entire peninsula back.

Russia said a few months ago that Crimea was part of Russia and any Ukrainian attack would be met with a nuclear response. It was all a lie by Russia.

Russia is also bluffing in regards to Ukrainian attacks on those illegally annexed territories as well

[AndyHogan14]

If the Russians can bring 150,000 Professionally Trained Soldiers/veterans to Ukraine (50%), and additional reservists to free up the professionals already on the ground, then Ukraine is in for some trouble.

Well, I suppose Ukraine is lucky that it is more likely that I be declared emperor of the world than this happening.

[Splash]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

Russia has 25,000 well-trained soldiers fighting on the Cherson Front with Reserves.  They also have good defensive field position in which the Ukrainians have to cross the strong currents of Ingulets River on pontoons before trekking through open fields.  They are extremely vulnerable to bombardments.  I posted a few videos one area of the line where numerous armored vehicles are blown apart across miles of open field.  The Russians didn't have anything close in Lyman to the troops and geographic barriers that exist on the West Bank of the Dnipro.  Not even the air force could even the numerical disadvantage the Russians were facing.  

And therein lies the dilemma for Russia. It takes a high degree of logistical acumen to supply such a force with the food, fuel and ammunition needed to sustain and defend itself, much less launch counteroffensive operations in the region. And that is why the Ukrainian military has been so focused on interdicting Russian supply lines over the Dnipro River. It's obvious that the Russians are exhausting a fair amount of resources simply holding this plot of land and the supposed benefit is not worth the cost, at least in the eyes of the Russian military command. Which is why they've reportedly asked to withdraw their forces to the east bank of the Dnipro. Of course, Putin has said no as he wants to deny Zelensky another win.

As for their part, the Ukrainian high command has made it clear not to expect any lightening offensives in the south of Ukraine. In their words, this is a slow, methodical push to isolate and deplete the Russian forces in the area. If the liberation of Kherson comes, I suspect it will most likely come as a result of the universal recognition among the political pundit class in Russia that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze here and the occupation of Kherson proper isn't essential to Putin's coveted land bridge.

I strongly disagree with relocating Russian troops to the Eastern Bank of Dnipro, because the Ukrainians are easy-pickings for bombardment when they trek through open fields after slowly crossing rivers with armored vehicles on the Western Bank.  The Russians have repeatedly destroyed pontoon crossings after letting dozens of vehicles cross into open fields, and the Ukrainians lose hundreds of men during these advances.  Rybar just posted a video of a failed Ukrainian attack on Davydov Brod, where 50 vehicles are destroyed, or abandoned, on the road due to Russian shelling (below).  https://t.me/s/rybar  

I believ  the Russian supply-line issues are over-exaggerated, because I would speculate that their are numerous ways to supply the area with food, gas, ammo, vehicles and heavy weaponry.  Think about Stalingrad.  Think about all the ways illegals get across the border.  Honestly, I think Ukraine has too much trouble identifying and striking supply lines and depots with enough speed and power to substantially paralyze Russian ground units.  If they could, then overwhelming Ukrainian numbers would be able to advance before Russian planes could slow or confine their spread and advance on defensive positions.  

If Cherson were a mere distraction for the Kharkiv Offensive, I'd say it was genius, but Ukraine has lost way too many people over the last few months for it to be a mere ruse.  They want to take it head-on.
They've lost 50 Vehicles on 1 of 4 sections today?  The loss of life was obviously huge as it has been whenever there's miles smoldering vehicles.  How long can the Ukraine lose that many pieces of equipment?

Currently, the Russians have a manpower problem.  They do not have enough soldiers to continuously hold their gains or enable the building of offensives against multiple high value locations.  They have relied on militia from Donestk and lysychansk to hold Kharkiv.  In fact, the militia took Lyman from the Ukrainians.   If the Russians can bring 150,000 Professionally Trained Soldiers/veterans to Ukraine (50%), and additional reservists to free up the professionals already on the ground, then Ukraine is in for some trouble.  

Alright. I am not going to get into a back-and-forth so that we can get back to actual developments about the war and because a lot of this is pure speculation and wish-casting, especially about the supply and manpower issues . In sum, however, I don't think anyone is denying that the Ukrainians are taking losses and there have been a number of false-starts on the southern axis, but since you seem to follow Russian-affiliated telegram channels, I would encourage you to seek out those that are relaying a lot of anecdotes about Russian supply issues around Kherson - you won't need to look far. Ukrainian supply issues are also a concern, of course, but that's somewhat alleviated by Russia continuing to be Ukraine's largest arms supplier.

[Frodo]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.    

[walleye26]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.     

Can’t the Ukrainians try to come down the eastern bank of the Dnipro and try to cut off Kherson from behind? Or is that the area you are referring to?

[Torie]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

[Torie]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.    

Until the allies talked Zelensky out of it, and go after the NE instead, this was what he wanted to do. Zelensky is most definitely not enamored with Putin's  land bridge concept.

[Hollywood]

I suppose Kherson is about to fall soon too?

Russia has 25,000 well-trained soldiers fighting on the Cherson Front with Reserves.  They also have good defensive field position in which the Ukrainians have to cross the strong currents of Ingulets River on pontoons before trekking through open fields.  They are extremely vulnerable to bombardments.  I posted a few videos one area of the line where numerous armored vehicles are blown apart across miles of open field.  The Russians didn't have anything close in Lyman to the troops and geographic barriers that exist on the West Bank of the Dnipro.  Not even the air force could even the numerical disadvantage the Russians were facing.  

And therein lies the dilemma for Russia. It takes a high degree of logistical acumen to supply such a force with the food, fuel and ammunition needed to sustain and defend itself, much less launch counteroffensive operations in the region. And that is why the Ukrainian military has been so focused on interdicting Russian supply lines over the Dnipro River. It's obvious that the Russians are exhausting a fair amount of resources simply holding this plot of land and the supposed benefit is not worth the cost, at least in the eyes of the Russian military command. Which is why they've reportedly asked to withdraw their forces to the east bank of the Dnipro. Of course, Putin has said no as he wants to deny Zelensky another win.

As for their part, the Ukrainian high command has made it clear not to expect any lightening offensives in the south of Ukraine. In their words, this is a slow, methodical push to isolate and deplete the Russian forces in the area. If the liberation of Kherson comes, I suspect it will most likely come as a result of the universal recognition among the political pundit class in Russia that the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze here and the occupation of Kherson proper isn't essential to Putin's coveted land bridge.

I strongly disagree with relocating Russian troops to the Eastern Bank of Dnipro, because the Ukrainians are easy-pickings for bombardment when they trek through open fields after slowly crossing rivers with armored vehicles on the Western Bank.  The Russians have repeatedly destroyed pontoon crossings after letting dozens of vehicles cross into open fields, and the Ukrainians lose hundreds of men during these advances.  Rybar just posted a video of a failed Ukrainian attack on Davydov Brod, where 50 vehicles are destroyed, or abandoned, on the road due to Russian shelling (below).  https://t.me/s/rybar  

I believ  the Russian supply-line issues are over-exaggerated, because I would speculate that their are numerous ways to supply the area with food, gas, ammo, vehicles and heavy weaponry.  Think about Stalingrad.  Think about all the ways illegals get across the border.  Honestly, I think Ukraine has too much trouble identifying and striking supply lines and depots with enough speed and power to substantially paralyze Russian ground units.  If they could, then overwhelming Ukrainian numbers would be able to advance before Russian planes could slow or confine their spread and advance on defensive positions.  

If Cherson were a mere distraction for the Kharkiv Offensive, I'd say it was genius, but Ukraine has lost way too many people over the last few months for it to be a mere ruse.  They want to take it head-on.
They've lost 50 Vehicles on 1 of 4 sections today?  The loss of life was obviously huge as it has been whenever there's miles smoldering vehicles.  How long can the Ukraine lose that many pieces of equipment?

Currently, the Russians have a manpower problem.  They do not have enough soldiers to continuously hold their gains or enable the building of offensives against multiple high value locations.  They have relied on militia from Donestk and lysychansk to hold Kharkiv.  In fact, the militia took Lyman from the Ukrainians.   If the Russians can bring 150,000 Professionally Trained Soldiers/veterans to Ukraine (50%), and additional reservists to free up the professionals already on the ground, then Ukraine is in for some trouble.  

Alright. I am not going to get into a back-and-forth so that we can get back to actual developments about the war and because a lot of this is pure speculation and wish-casting, especially about the supply and manpower issues . In sum, however, I don't think anyone is denying that the Ukrainians are taking losses and there have been a number of false-starts on the southern axis, but since you seem to follow Russian-affiliated telegram channels, I would encourage you to seek out those that are relaying a lot of anecdotes about Russian supply issues around Kherson - you won't need to look far. Ukrainian supply issues are also a concern, of course, but that's somewhat alleviated by Russia continuing to be Ukraine's largest arms supplier.

I am following both Russian and Ukrainian channels.  You're correct that Russian soldiers are complaining about supplies, conditions, and strategy, but there is discontent on both sides of the conflict.  This is war.  No one is content.  

If Ukrainian or American Journalists embedded in the VSU were able to disseminate timely news detailing theUkrainian and Russian activities on the battle field, I'd rely more heavily on those sources for information.   The source above literally tells you the Ukrainians lost 50 vehicles, and provides a video with 20 examples to support the claim.  If you scroll up, there are Russian Journalists/Reporters expressing anger over the Russian Military Command.  In the past, I've seen some Russians discuss a lack of supplies and military professionalism.   Some of these dude are propagandizing and others are trying to give the most accurate information allowable in a war zone.  There are good Ukrainian sources doing the same.  Unfortunately, censored content on Twitter, Youtube, Facebook, and Google are providing he most propaganda-related disinformation, so I'm not taking tweets at face value unless they provide some primary evidence.

[Person Man]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

Can’t the CIA bomb pipelines and the US Navy start interning Russian cargo ships? We’ve already suggested the defenestration of Putin. I mean, to me, assassination, piracy, and sabotage would be a reasonable in kind retaliation against tactical nuclear weapons without going immediately to MAD or straight to a ground war.

[Torie]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

Can’t the CIA bomb pipelines and the US Navy start interning Russian cargo ships? We’ve already suggested the defenestration of Putin. I mean, to me, assassination, piracy, and sabotage would be a reasonable in kind retaliation against tactical nuclear weapons without going immediately to MAD or straight to a ground war.

Yes, cutting the sea lanes seems the most "obvious." You can imagine how disappointed I was when I googled it, and found that Russia had a land based oil pipeline to China. Maybe the allies can hire the same outfit that did in the pipeline at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, assuming their services are offered on both land and sea. India's juice does seem to be by boat as the consolation prize.

[Frodo]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.    

Can’t the Ukrainians try to come down the eastern bank of the Dnipro and try to cut off Kherson from behind? Or is that the area you are referring to?

You have to look at the map.  You need to take Zaporizhzhia oblast before contemplating that kind of offensive, otherwise you leave yourself vulnerable to counterattacks from multiple directions, leaving yourself at risk of being cut off and surrounded.  

In any case, I believe someone said that the Ukrainian high command has decided against conducting blitzkrieg-like offensives in favor of a slow-grind.  

I trust they know what they are doing far better than us armchair warriors from faraway lands....  

Until the allies talked Zelensky out of it, and go after the NE instead, this was what he wanted to do. Zelensky is most definitely not enamored with Putin's  land bridge concept.

I see he had a similar idea, though that arrow indicates he wanted to prioritize Donetsk oblast instead.

[Splash]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.    

Can’t the Ukrainians try to come down the eastern bank of the Dnipro and try to cut off Kherson from behind? Or is that the area you are referring to?

First things first -look at the map.  You have to take Zaporizhzhia oblast before contemplating that kind of offensive, otherwise you leave yourself vulnerable to counterattacks from multiple directions, leaving yourself at risk of being cut off and surrounded.  

In any case, I believe someone said that the Ukrainian high command has decided against conducting blitzkrieg-like offensives in favor of a slow-grind.  

I trust they know what they are doing far better than us armchair warriors from faraway lands....  

Of all the possible options, I think it's most likely that the Ukrainians continue counteroffensives in and around Luhansk given that they have the initiative there and the Russian lines from the Oskil River to Kreminna seem pretty unstable and porous. In terms of what the objective would be, I am not sure a general thrust into northern Luhansk would make much sense since the area is pretty underpopulated and the end-result would be hundreds of additional kilometers of border with Russia that Ukraine would need to constantly defend.

Rather, I think it's more likely that Ukraine continue to put pressure on Kreminna while cutting off the Russia's access to the P66 highway from somewhere in the north. That will set the stage for an incremental encirclement of Lyschansk and Severodonetsk. That said, if the Ukrainians are exhausted from their September counteroffensives, it might take a while to execute such a plan. Hopefully they've been able to cycle their forces adequately.

[John Dule]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

China’s reaction in this scenario is the ultimate wildcard. It was clear at the Central Asia summit earlier this week that Xi is extremely displeased with Putin for ruining the “kinder, gentler dictatorship” image he’s been trying to project to the international community. His support for Russia will be completely up in the air if nukes are used.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

China’s reaction in this scenario is the ultimate wildcard. It was clear at the Central Asia summit earlier this week that Xi is extremely displeased with Putin for ruining the “kinder, gentler dictatorship” image he’s been trying to project to the international community. His support for Russia will be completely up in the air if nukes are used.

I'd say a 60's USSR-PRC type split is entirely possible in such a scenario. Of course Russia will be left a backwater rump state with nukes... So it's arguable whether that scenario benefits anyone in the end. At least not without tremendous hardship and grief.

[Hollywood]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.    

Until the allies talked Zelensky out of it, and go after the NE instead, this was what he wanted to do. Zelensky is most definitely not enamored with Putin's  land bridge concept.

When I saw the map, I chuckled.  I guess I'm not surprised that this was Zelensky's preferred plan of attack, because it is drastically worse than the Reconquista of Kherson.  The Ukrainians would be going into river valleys, and would face strong Russian defensive positions along ridges and hills that could be held by the Donetsk Militia.  The VSU would be sandwiched between two Russian military concentrations located in Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblast.  It would be as if the Ukrainians were conducting military exercises under orders from the Kremlin.

Should be getting early Battlefield Updates from Ukraine in next two hours .  It is 6:17AM.