Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Alright... can we get this thread back on topic please.

Anyway...

[tweet snip]
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1575989352332607489

The second video of the AFU soldier saying "welcome to Lyman" possibly geolocated to southeast of the city:

https://twitter.com/TheBioFred/status/1576042057180672000?s=20&t=hK67qgy4hW-...

[NOVA Green]

Yikes, this is quite another blow to Russia.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1575931937092292608?t=gUed36_35zb7j7LU8dQug...

5,500 Russians surrounded at Lyman is what he meant to say, presumably?  

Seems to jive with The Guardian article regarding an estimated 5.5k Russian troops in Lyman from earlier today...

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1575809078034665473?s=20&t=CTnxJqAJMmg_hdO...

[NOVA Green]

Surrender time in Lyman as Ukrainians broadcast message to encircled Russians

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1576018980976095232

Apologies for musical interlude, but does remind me a bit of that White Stripes: Seven Nation Army Song from almost a decade back...

Especially since once again Putin invoked "Satanists" as part of his "Special Operation" in Ukraine.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Unambiguous talk is essential when responding to belligerent nuclear powers. I would be concerned if the Biden Administration wasn't making it clear that Putin would be killed immediately if he uses any nuclear weapons.

One of the few good things Trump said in the White House was when he made clear that he would annihilate the Kim dynasty of North Korea if he started a nuclear war. Of course brain-rotted liberals were offended by that then and the hypocritical conservatives that supported Trump then will hate Biden for this now, but that's a reflection of American foolishness. In reality, both were correct to respond unambiguously.

Should Harry Truman have been killed? Let me guess, that was different.

Also, all Putin has to do to respond to this is to have a trigger that nukes will fire on the event of his assasination.

America was waging a defensive war in World War II so yes, that actually is very different.

Initially yes, but not by late 1945. We were on the offensive and looking for total victory, not just a return to prewar borders. Anyway if you ask the Russians they will give you some mental gymnastics about being the "defenders" of people in Donbas. Sure it's a load of crap, but the thing is they are earnest and actually believe it.

"pre war borders" (prior to demon nation entering unjustified war, ofc) were all of southeast and east Asia. Giving Japan all of Asia as an empire is anti-imperialism, though. Good thinking Vatnik!

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1576061029041471490?s=20&t=lImLlQwm...

https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1576084607027490817?s=20&t=lImLlQwmMA7...

Meanwhile, "By the Time we Get to Lyman"...

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1575417836352290816?s=20&t=lImLlQwmMA7G...

https://twitter.com/temafey/status/1576114805152583680?s=20&t=lImLlQwmMA7Gp9...

[windjammer]

How strategic is Lyman?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

Hey, at the very least Putin has signed some pieces of paper declaring Ukrainian territory - of which at least parts are actually occupied by Russian troops at the moment - to be oblasts of the Russian Federation. That must count for something, right? Right?


(Annexing territory that you don't even de facto control is a pretty lame-ass low-energy move IMO.
Orange: Territory formally claimed by Russia.
Red line: Territory actually controlled by Russia atm.

[img  width=500]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg/1024px-Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg.png[/img])

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Lyman will likely fall within the next 48-72 hours. as Russian troops desperately attempt to flee under heavily artillery bombardment, while Mr. Putin declares "no retreat", Ukrainian offensive operations continue to drive forward elsewhere within the Northeastern Front:

Hey, at the very least Putin has signed some pieces of paper declaring Ukrainian territory - of which at least parts are actually occupied by Russian troops at the moment - to be oblasts of the Russian Federation. That must count for something, right? Right?


(Annexing territory that you don't even de facto control is a pretty lame-ass low-energy move IMO.
Orange: Territory formally claimed by Russia.
Red line: Territory actually controlled by Russia atm.

)

It looks like he might even lose control of two of the four capitals soon lol.

[CumbrianLefty]

You guys are arguing with Beet? Don’t even bother. Contrarianism at its worst.

But sometimes the "contrarianism" happens to be right. People ganged up on me too over the 2016 election and the early stages of Covid. Assuredly, nuclear war would be worse than both, and it's my prediction it will happen in this century - at the cost of millions of innocents - thanks to the reckless, manichean mentality on display in this thread.

The whole point in war is that the two sides disagree on who's evil and the bad guy, and they both call each other Hitler or Nazis.

And arguably, Truman had even less just cause to use nukes bc he could have won the war without them, whereas Russia may feel its back is against the wall and has no other choice. But I don't think they'll do it, and of course it's not justified. They still have plenty of other less extreme options right now. It's bluster.

the russkies can literally decide to order their military pack up and leave Ukraine tonight if they want, there's nothing stopping them lmao

thier back isn't against the wall lol no one's even invaded their country

If only it was that easy. Putin likely wishes what you wrote were true, but the reality is that if he did, Ukraine would likely join NATO and thered be NATO missiles 5 minutes from Moscow. Worse (from his standpoint), Putin would be in grave danger of being overthrown. And if he were overthrown, he might end up like Ceausescu. That's the problem. You think the West would help him at that point if he pulled troops out and came crawling back begging for forgiveness on his hands and knees? The reality is, if you were in his shoes and valued your life, you wouldn't surrender either. The guy is a cornered animal who happens to have thousands of nukes at his disposal.

It's not cowsboys and Indians like you played when you were five years old, and it's not some Hollywood movie where the orcs aren't even human. Russians are human too, Putin is human, and they all want the same thing normal people do. It's a delicate situation that must be handled. Hopefully resolved around nuclear war. If we can't recognize our common humanity as people then yes, we are headed for big trouble. Maybe bigger than humanity has ever committed on itself.

ok but Putin isn't a human he is a demon from another dimension just like Hitler and Saddam, he needs to be sent back to hell.

And I rest my case. That is the point. You have become the very thing you claim to hate.

Mate, there are some things that can't be "both sides"-ed.

The man who Putin worships, Alexander Dugin, has said Ukraine and Ukrainians should not exist.

How do you "both sides" that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312

And then when the wise man complains “that’s not fair!”, I’ll say, “you’re the nihilist, dude!”

This situation is very black and white. If you don’t think that, it raises doubts about your trustworthiness, dependability, reliability.

[Hollywood]

How strategic is Lyman?

It's a low to medium value transportation hub from Kharkiv to the northern side of the Donetsk Defensive Road Ring, which includes cities like Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Siversk. In Russian hands (although it was only garrisoned by a few hundred soldiers), Ukrainian defenses and supplies are pressured from north.   Under Ukrainian control, Lyman can be used a launchpad for continued offensives toward the NW Russian defense and supply lines of Lysychansk.  

As of 2:00PM (Ukrainian Time), the Ukrainians have taken the western entrance of Lyman, and it appears Russia will lose the battle.  The Russians seem unable to hold their position between Stavki, Liman and the northern outskirts of Yampol.  The Torskoye-Kreminnaya road supporting their defenses is under constant fire.  

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1575719885883449344?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1576173719772614656?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1576182678079950850?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sh*t did Russia just lose 4K troops on that highway?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1576174967376355331?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4UrAOjo...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1576183931397107713?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4Ur...

[DavidB.]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

[Person Man]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

Even nuclear war happens for a reason.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/exclusive-europe-braces-mobile-network-blackouts-sources-2022-09-29/

"Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts"

A power crisis in EU this winter might also mean mobile networks will experience blackouts

[Middle-aged Europe]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

I replaced the map with a smaller version now, although Fying Mongoose had already quoted the big one.

Anyway, Putin is in a sense in a much dire stuation than Hitler - at least when we compare the current situation with the one in spring of 1940.

Putin has failed to subjugate even half a country and his conscripts are attempting to flee to neighbouring countries in droves now.

Granted, it would be better if these people tried to remove their commander-in-chief through of one those "colour revolutions" instead of just hauling ass to Kazakhstan and Georgia, because this would probably the easiest way out of this mess. But than can still hope... the East German regime was still successfully toppled in the fall of '89 following a massive movement of refugees to the Czechoslovakia and Hungary in the preceding summer.

As far as nuclear war is concerned... I was under the impression that Putin has gone out of his way to prevent the use of nukes, coming up with increasingly creative scenarios - partial mobilization, the referendums, presumably the sabotage of the pipelines - as alternatives to throwing the bomb. This is, hopefully, a sign that he still recognizes a few red lines. (Another red line apparently was then his foreign minister went full anti-Semite in the summer, leading to a rare apology by Putin to Israel.)

[Omega21]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

Where's a von Stauffenberg when you need one...

In all seriousness, agreed on all points.

Russia's "exit" possibilities are shrinking rapidly.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/exclusive-europe-braces-mobile-network-blackouts-sources-2022-09-29/

"Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts"

A power crisis in EU this winter might also mean mobile networks will experience blackouts

Appreciate your continued posting in spite of many here deeming such posts as doomerism or Russian propaganda.

[2952-0-0]

Russia just lost a city that was supposedly its territory to what is supposedly an invading army. That's incredible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia just lost a city that was supposedly its territory to what is supposedly an invading army. That's incredible.

Question is whether Russia will call to convene the UN Security Council over this UKRAINIAN INVASION??

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1575719885883449344?s=20&t=9rP8c2b4...

Oh the tension that caused this war is in no way new. "Great" Russian Elite always struggled to advance their Russification programs into the countryside, which they derided as "Little" Russian savages. These "Little" Russians maintained their own culture and language without formalization precisely because the industrial cities attracted populations from other parts of the country than the unpaved, traditional, and insular village. Their culture was that of a borderlands people that has parallels to other parts of the world: Slavic, but with features of all the various empires and peoples that had passed through and at times ruled the region. The Ukrainian identity was there long before WWI and the Russian Civil War, but that's when outsiders started to see the region as separate from Eastern Russia, so thats when Russian History claims Ukrainian was "invented" to break the state.

Once it was recognized as a force within Russian and Soviet society though, it needed to be dealt with. This is why Russification programs continued under a Soviet veneer for much of their rule, migrating people from other parts of the state into lands abandoned after WWII for example. Its why many see the Holodomor as not just sheer incompetence but a vehicle of state anti-Ukrainian policy. Ukrainians today have vanished from the Don, Kuban, and eastern Caucasus regions despite past prominence because of Russification and population relocations that began with Stalin.

Khrushchev once joked at one of his secret speeches (not the famous one) that the only reason why Stalin didn't eradicate the Ukrainian people was because they were too numerous. Which only made sense if you were a Soviet insider who knew what had happened to innumerable scattered peoples across the Soviet State.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Kadryov (who alleges he wasn't allowed to retire) takes aim at the commander of one of Russia's four military districts and calls for the use of nukes.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576212735527829505

Another Crimean airbase aflame:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065