Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia's allies are losing patience, apparently.

World opinion shifts against Russia as Ukraine worries grow

...

NEW YORK (AP) — The tide of international opinion appears to be decisively shifting against Russia, as a number of non-aligned countries are joining the United States and its allies in condemning Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its threats to the principles of the international rules-based order.

Western officials have repeatedly said that Russia has become isolated since invading Ukraine in February. Until recently, though, that was largely wishful thinking. But on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, much of the international community spoke out against the conflict in a rare display of unity at the often fractured United Nations.

...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-states-government-and-politics-b7ec3ee21de1a7d7c982d4967223787d?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_02

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does jaichind truly believe that people are gonna freeze to death or was this meant as a figure of speech?

It's hard not to get the impression that a lot of people don't understand what winters in North Western Europe are actually like, isn't it? Yes there will be problems, but the deep, terrifying colds that you get with a true Continental Climate are essentially not a thing: outside the highest upland regions they don't turn up as a constant issue until you reach, as it happens, Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remember the anti-tank mine M26 rockets I mentioned a few days ago? One’s been spotted. Besides HIMARS/M270, the only delivery systems for the AT-2 are mine laying vehicles and outdated MLRS which would have had to have been delivered to Ukraine unannounced. I think it’s now very likely that the AT-2 mine variant of the M26 rocket has been sent.

https://www.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1573269390153453570
Germany has, or had, a stockpile of circa 10,000 of these (in addition to the possibly unusable 33,000+ LARS rockets as of 2019). France, Italy, Norway and the UK retired theirs, but it is quite possible the rockets still endure and perhaps even the warheads are still attached or attachable. Given the age of these rockets, suppliers may be willing to part with most or all of them. To give a sense of perspective: just north of 50,000 GMLRS rockets have ever been produced. Ukraine almost certainly hasn’t gotten 10,000 of those just yet. They are older, cheaper, shorter-range and unguided, but they’re probably still effective in an artillery role - and at least provide volume, which Ukraine needs.

Hopefully, these are useful enough to spur Ukraine’s allies into action with respect to the potentially vast stockpiles of M26 rockets elsewhere. Lots have already had their cluster warheads removed; attaching less war-crimey ones could be more easily scalable than building new GMLRS from scratch.

Edit certain OSINT commentators claim the lack of a visible parachute means the AT2 mine probably wasn’t deployed via a rocket but by some other means, as the the rocket variant is supposed to have a parachute.

[Logical]

The referendums are now taking place (23-27) after they are done it will take 1-5 days to tally the votes, after that the Russian Duma has said they would swiftly take the new Oblasts in.

Let's be real here, the results of these "referendums" are already on Putin's desk.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Which is basically

You really do type these updates with one hand don't you?

Does jaichind truly believe that people are gonna freeze to death or was this meant as a figure of speech?

Maybe "hope" is more accurate than "believe"?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

One Russian journalist earlier claimed a 63-year-old colonel had been called up. Take this with a grain of salt, but this might be the same guy.

https://www.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573250936566325248

Even full mobilisation is only supposed to apply to 60-year-olds at the oldest, but officers are going to be in high demand given the apparent scale of what is being attempted.

The LDPR officially conscripts up to 65. The Ukrainians do not conscript up to this age, but allow voluntary service to begin no later than 65.

[Torie]

An Economist editorial as to what Ukraine needs now to take advantage of the lag time between the Putin conscription and the time some of them might reach the front lines. Of most interest to me is the training bit. And that should include training with NATO weapons as well. Their time will come. The Russian junk is destined for a phase out in due course I would think.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/09/21/vladimir-putin-vows-to-send-more-invaders-the-west-should-arm-ukraine-faster

"That gives Ukraine a window of opportunity. Its Western backers should step up the supply of arms, including longer-range missiles. The best nato weapons must not be used to attack Russia itself, but the parts of Ukraine that Russia is about to annex illegally should not be off-limits. The West should also train more Ukrainian soldiers. The country has plenty of highly motivated would-be defenders, but so far only Britain is offering basic training to large numbers. Other nato members should immediately pitch in, perhaps dividing the labour so that one ally focuses on air defence, another on artillery and so forth. The more of its land Ukraine can claw back before Russian reinforcements arrive, the stronger its position will be."

[Person Man]

One Russian journalist earlier claimed a 63-year-old colonel had been called up. Take this with a grain of salt, but this might be the same guy.

https://www.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573250936566325248

Even full mobilisation is only supposed to apply to 60-year-olds at the oldest, but officers are going to be in high demand given the apparent scale of what is being attempted.

The LDPR officially conscripts up to 65. The Ukrainians do not conscript up to this age, but allow voluntary service to begin no later than 65.

It’s very difficult to imagine a future for Russia after this war.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1573221116113461249

Starting to feel like there is beginning to be a real shift here among Russia's Asian partners. Hours after Russia announced further escalation through mobilisation and annexation referendums, China's foreign ministry called for a cease-fire and respect for the principle of territorial integrity. Putin forced to openly acknowledge Xi's "questions and concerns" about the Invasion. Modi's looking Putin in the eye in Samarkand and telling him that "now is not the time for war". Certainly not some moral awakening, but they are, I think, getting uncomfortable that Russia's increasingly desperate and self-destructive aggression is actually undermining and risking the multipolar world order that they want.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1573221116113461249

Starting to feel like there is beginning to be a real shift here among Russia's Asian partners. Hours after Russia announced further escalation through mobilisation and annexation referendums, China's foreign ministry called for a cease-fire and respect for the principle of territorial integrity. Putin forced to openly acknowledge Xi's "questions and concerns" about the Invasion. Modi's looking Putin in the eye in Samarkand and telling him that "now is not the time for war". Certainly not some moral awakening, but they are, I think, getting uncomfortable that Russia's increasingly desperate and self-destructive aggression is actually undermining and risking the multipolar world order that they want.

China and India have started to notice that Putin is unable to get the job done and they probably don't cherish the prospect of a prolonged conflict, bringing instability to the world economy and international relations.

[Woody]

Russia finally has a counter to the Bayraktars.

https://twitter.com/adamsmithstwit/status/1573343551957729281

[Storr]

The referendums are now taking place (23-27) after they are done it will take 1-5 days to tally the votes, after that the Russian Duma has said they would swiftly take the new Oblasts in.

Let's be real here, the results of these "referendums" are already on Putin's desk.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573242079848939522?s=20&t=hBgTrysy...

[Storr]

Morale is high among mobiks:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573247133448376320?s=20&t=hBgTrysy...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573322398346235905?s=20&t=hBgTrysy...

[jaichind]

I assume if people post articles doubting the legitimacy of these referendums on Facebook, Facebook will use labels to redirect users to accurate information about the referendum from the Russian government.

Likewise, I assume Twitter will apply misinformation labels or remove posts that undermine confidence in the electoral process.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1573307059621318657?s=20&t=hBgTrys...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573218156985958400?s=20&t=XelWIQx1veJ2oR...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1573292958480228352?s=20&t=XelWIQ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1573307059621318657?s=20&t=hBgTrys...

Snihurivka is really close to the front line. I have to wonder if there is an actual uprising against the occupation there, if th Ukrainian army could be able to move in and expel the occupiers.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1573337663561777155

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1573307059621318657?s=20&t=hBgTrys...

Snihurivka is really close to the front line. I have to wonder if there is an actual uprising against the occupation there, if th Ukrainian army could be able to move in and expel the occupiers.

There are some settlements along the front that are essentially "demilitarized" (not occupied by either the Ukrainians or the Russians). The Russians have withdrawn or only have a very light presence but the Ukrainians haven't moved in because that would put their forces within better range of Russian artillery and the settlements aren't that important strategically. I am not sure if Snihurivka is one of those places, but that could perhaps explain why the local civilian population felt safe enough to make such a public protest.

[Storr]

The democratic process at work:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573333979490824192?s=20&t=XelWIQ...

Edit: added second tweet

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573392246816243713?s=20&t=skU-1i...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573300106325106690?s=20&t=XelWIQx1veJ2oR...

[Storr]

War is unpredictable but the Russian defense of Lyman may be untenable. They are flanked by the Ukrainians on three sides and it now seems that their rear is exposed. I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to "regroup" soon if the Ukrainians can capitalize on their (unconfirmed) breakthrough.

Also:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572969458112544770

https://twitter.com/phinp/status/1572972551126790144?s=20&t=ifPT5_eQMpMv3N4S...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573328437414334465?s=20&t=XelWIQx1...

[jaichind]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/first-nuclear-reactor-to-be-shut-down-in-belgium/

"First nuclear reactor to be shut down in Belgium"

I get there is a law that says it has to be shut down  But surely given current circumstances this can be delayed a few months.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573367460283154433

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573314121285734401

[Splash]

Russia’s unsustainable equipment losses in Ukraine - Yahoo News

Very old T-62M tanks have been increasingly appearing, as Russia runs out of newer, more capable tanks. Using these tanks will also exacerbate the Kremlin’s manpower shortages: The T-62 does not feature an autoloader, which automatically loads shells into the main gun, unlike more modern Russian types, so it needs a four-man crew, compared to the three-man crews required by T-72, T-80, or T-90 models.

Russia’s sophisticated vehicles will be difficult to replace, given Western import restrictions. The Russian T-72B3 uses a “Catherine” thermal imaging system made by the French multinational defense contractor Thales. Russia imported these systems because it does not have the capability to build them domestically and because few other sources of this sophisticated equipment are available. China — notionally Russia’s ally — has scaled back the export of microprocessors necessary for Russia’s newer missiles, almost certainly because of the fear of secondary sanctions if it is seen to be feeding Putin’s war machine.