Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

It seems like a pretty dumb decision by EU countries to deny Russian citizes visas right now.

Why would EU countries want a bunch of 5th columnists? They are only fleeing because the war is about to come to them, not because they weren't in favour of the war.

The non-crazies mostly left Russia already.

The idea that everyone opposed to war already left Russia and anyone who would like to leave now must be a fifth columnist is really something.

Anti-war Russians don't have to flee to the EU. The most popular destinations are Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. If the EU won't allow their entry, that is still their right.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

[KaiserDave]

"Partial mobilization" is such nonsense. "Partial" will mean whatever the regime wants it to.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

Good for him, I guess.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1572634523002601478

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1572660221306368000?s=20&t=z_NZdF...

[President Johnson]

Right now, there's an exodus out of Russia; long jams towards the Finnish border and prices for one-way-tickets out of Russia soared in a matter of hours.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

KnowYourMeme/Simpsons

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"Partial mobilization" is such nonsense. "Partial" will mean whatever the regime wants it to.

It at least leaves Putin with something of an off-ramp. “We didn’t totally mobilise and are not officially at war, so we still have influence and it’s ok to negotiate,” could become the official line if Russia suffers enough military defeats.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120https://twitter.co...

[Storr]

Georgia is a visa free country for Russian citizens, and they are allowed to stay for 360 days. Russians are only allowed to stay 90 days in Azerbaijan visa free, so it makes sense Russians trying to avoid mobilization would attempt to enter Georgia.

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1572673579807809537?s=20&t=z_NZdFVNKi...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Right now, there's an exodus out of Russia; long jams towards the Finnish border and prices for one-way-tickets out of Russia soared in a matter of hours.

Reminds me of East Germany, ca. 1989. This is exactly how the end of the regime began back then.

[Person Man]

You would really have to wonder how this going to further ruin the Russian economy with so many people leaving.

[Splash]

More prisoner swaps:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572695157002342400

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1572696145582866432

[Storr]

3k out of a population of 1.082 million (2021 Census preliminary estimate) is 0.277264325% of Kursk Oblast's population. That percentage applied to Russia's population from the 2021 Census (147,182,123), that's 408,083 conscripted/mobilized men.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572652456311672832?s=20&t=z_NZdFVN...

[Logical]

3k out of a population of 1.082 million (2021 Census preliminary estimate) is 0.277264325% of Kursk Oblast's population. Applied to Russia's population from the 2021 Census: 147,182,123, that's 408,083 conscripted/mobilized men.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1572652456311672832?s=20&t=z_NZdFVN...

Yous should count the male population only. They aren't conscripting women.

[Logical]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mobilisation without refresher training for <30s, in at least some oblasts. Worse than what the mobilised LDPR gangs get.

https://www.twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572664720901152773

[Storr]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

It seems like a really odd time for a high profile prisoner exchange. Don't forget the 10 "western" prisoners that were already released today. It only makes sense unless Russia is so critically low on manpower it's willing to release the evil satanic neo-nazi Azov criminals (according to Russian media anyway) in exchange for many/some of the POWs captured in Kharkiv Oblast during the past few weeks.

Edit: if it was for only Medechuk, why swap for him now?

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572697479149240321

And he already has examples

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572697479149240321

And he already has examples

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1572702426267787264?s=20&t=0A83QX...

[Storr]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

It seems like a really odd time for a high profile prisoner exchange. Don't forget the 10 "western" prisoners that were already released today. It only makes sense unless Russia is so critically low on manpower it's willing to release the evil satanic neo-nazi Azov criminals (according to Russian media anyway) in exchange for many/some of the POWs captured in Kharkiv Oblast during the past few weeks.

Edit: if it was for only Medechuk, why swap for him now?

If true, they must have been officers. Previous exchanges have had a 2-3 to 1 ratio, Russians to Ukrainians:

https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1572704654185594880?s=20&t=cCOWKuBFZs...

[Torie]

I can't be the only one thinking mobilization will actually hinder the Russian war effort more than it helps, right? Aside from the obvious logistical problems and the fact that this will likely gum up the works of the Russian military even further, it will be much harder for Russian civilians to remain passively neutral on the war effort if they or their family members/friends find themselves drafted. Even if this gives Russia a greater edge in soldiers, I remain unconvinced that it will be worth the significant risk of domestic blowback.

Perhaps I can help. The Ukraine special operation has proved so far to be a poor "investment," for Putin. Rattling of nukes didn't work, so now it is nukes flashing plus a "somewhat" mobilization," presumably still protecting the issue of the elites, plus instant referendums in the conquered territories for the few odd souls still there and not dead or gone to cast a vote, to opine that they pine to become Russian again - mother Russia, thus rendering NATO assisting in changing who controls the real estate of mother Russia engorged, as an attack on Russia itself.

How much of this is what is Putin's plan because he gets hard on off nuke war thoughts, and how much it is for show (I tend to doubt he really believes his own "sh*t), remains to be seen. But I get more and more the sense, that he will keep doubling down, until he goes, or gets his way. With China and India publically telling him they are approaching the exit ramps, and stepping on the brakes, and effectively cutting him loose, and almost immediately thereafter he declares a mobilization, suggests it's him or the highway, with all that portends. The Dow is probably overpriced (already about to slide below 30,000), some since the collapse risk odds might not be fully factored in.

We also now know that there seems so far no very good mechanism to protect a nation from demonic rulers, when is divided and anxious, the rule of law notwithstanding. More and more, by more and more, it seems the first thing to go when subjected to stress.

In the meantime, the odds are going up that we have a madman with nukes. Praise Jesus  that I am not POTUS.

[Logical]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

It seems like a really odd time for a high profile prisoner exchange. Don't forget the 10 "western" prisoners that were already released today. It only makes sense unless Russia is so critically low on manpower it's willing to release the evil satanic neo-nazi Azov criminals (according to Russian media anyway) in exchange for many/some of the POWs captured in Kharkiv Oblast during the past few weeks.

Edit: if it was for only Medechuk, why swap for him now?

If true, they must have been officers. Previous exchanges have had a 2-3 to 1 ratio, Russians to Ukrainians:

https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1572704654185594880?s=20&t=cCOWKuBFZs...

The rumors that Ukraine captured several high ranking Russian generals in Kharkiv were true then.

[Person Man]

Mobilisation without refresher training for <30s, in at least some oblasts. Worse than what the mobilised LDPR gangs get.

https://www.twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572664720901152773

This is how you generate bodies.

[Badger]

The partial mobilisation (which seems pretty close to a full mobilisation) vindicates what I postulated months ago with regards to escalatory concerns: most “escalation” would be contingent on the extent of Ukrainian success rather than the specific tools they were given to achieve it. Consequently, many of the restrictions and delays in the supply of materiel, training etc. to the Ukrainian Army only served to draw out the conflict and cause more Ukrainian casualties prior to Russia being forced to raise or fold in the face of Ukrainian success.

This should be kept in mind when supplying future aid. Either we prefer to see Ukraine lose rather than risk further Russian escalation against it, or we reduce the restrictions on what we supply to help it win. I’d rather let Ukraine judge the risk, as it’s their country - but the global ramifications of potential Russian nuclear use in anger may mean total Ukrainian loss is preferable. I don’t think we can fine-tune aid to keep front lines stable forever.

The consequences of ceding to nuclear blackmail fundamentally guarantee nuclear war in the long run. The only way to maybe avoid it is to consistently call Putin's bluff and not give any sense that we're cowed by his threats.

You’re probably right, but if Russia wins thanks to mobilisation + lack of Western aid, that may cause a slower nuclear arms race than if Russia wins thanks to using nuclear weapons. There are alternative reasons (besides escalation) as to why things like fighter jets aren’t being transferred (sensitive tech, cost, etc.). However, there is also the risk of Ukraine developing its own nuclear weapons or dirty bombs if it doesn’t get more Western aid, so neither option is a safe choice.

I’m in favour of giving Ukraine more conventional arms, but there’s room for alternative viewpoints. What I can’t defend is the failure to at least train Ukraine to use weapons that have long lead (training/logistical/production) times, as it pushes back the earliest date at which we have the option to give them these weapons.

It’s now likely Russia will get its mobilised troops in order before F-16s arrive, even if the US agrees to send them today. This was probably avoidable.

As Ukraine is so completely dependent on Western Arms and aid, I have essentially zero doubt that Western governments can absolutely shut down any attempt at a dirty bomb or other nuclear weapons being deployed by ukraine, even if they were able to somehow manage construction.